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THOR BREAK DOWN – THE CBI A SYNOPSIS ON WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW: PTR – 6/20/11


Longhorns
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June 20, 2011 01:30 pm

Something to think about today…I could post article after article backing up what the CBI has done since last year going into today. But here is what they’ve accomplished and why the rest of the stuff has been a “circus” until now…The IMF has stated they will help Iraq if the following is achieved:

1) Boost your reserves (they’ve… gone from ZERO to over $50 Billion)

2) Get your inflation in check (they’ve gone from 34% to as low as 3% and it’s still less than 10%)

3) Stabilize the dinar (the 1170 artificial rate has been stable now for over 2 years)

4) Privatize your banks (done).

If you do all this we (the IMF) will honor your 3 zero process that will enhance the purchasing power of your currency. With Iraq getting the green light to enter the Forex, and Saleh stating June 1st that “the supplies are sufficient to implement the experience” of introducing the lower denominations, we are now able to conclude that ALL WE’RE DOING IS WAITING FOR THE CHANGE OF THE RATE. The circus act, which are the political shenanigans going on, will get this done all at once because the monetary policy IS NOW READY….and I think it will be June 30th or sooner…

Thor

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You guys don't still believe they are going to revalue the inflation that has taken so long to contain, do you?

Why would Shabibi give up years of progress and be forced to RV for pennies, when he can restore the purchasing power and reach parity with the dollar with a revenue neutral RD, spend the lower denominations into the economy, then RV the currency to international standing?

I believe that six months ago, a RV may have been possible.

But six months of nearly daily currency auctions, selling Dinar to outside "investors" has created a rather large liability to meet ar face value.

I do really hope for the best, but have to be realistic and make plans for other possibilities...

At this point, nobody knows, myself included.

All I can guess is what I would do in his shoes..

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