RV mid to late 2011

[keepmwlknfny]

As you all know by now I guess im considered the "devils advocate" of this site But if thats what it is trying to look at this investment from down here on the ground then so be it!! I personally dont think that we will be seeing the RV in the months ahead of us.....although seeing the unrest in the surrounding countries in the middle east COULD speed things up a little bit.....Im sure you have all seen the articles that came out late last year and possibly early this year about the new budget. Shabs almost in exact words said that the budget for the 2011 year has been filled with policies/reforms/plans to see the dinar rise in value....cant get much clearer then that and there is no one I would like to hear that from more then shabs himself since he does control the exchange rate.....now most of these "gurus" spin this kind of information into meaning that as soon as the budget is done that it will RV.....that is not quite true.....you can bet thats not the first agenda on the table.....believe it or not there are basic needs that must be tended to first like plans to get more areas running water or electricity or heck even waste management!!! Yes of course giving the people more purchasing power is VERY important but like I said, dont expect it to be said and done immediately after the budget is ratified.....they need some time to put everything into action....to get the ball rolling economically speaking so they can strongly support any moves made with the exchange rate and purchasing power.....they also need things to settle down a bit.....get a strong hold on the people and whats going on security wise throughout the country....stability plays a HUGE role in a countries currencies worth believe it or not.....it can be done....I have faith it WILL be done but this is not an easy process....besides that we have the DFI fund that is up in June.....now I dont know EVERYTHING there is to know about it but Im pretty sure this will release a ton of funds back into the govts hands which def couldnt hurt.....something to build up reserves not only with dinar, but international reserves as well which would be VERY important for outside/foreign investors who will most likely be getting paid not in dinar but in their respective countries currency.....Im not going to make a huge deal about it because really they dont need to be worried about having trillions sitting aside for us and the people of Iraq.....they arent even worried about us.....we are just a grain of sand in a huge sandbox....90% (probly higher) of the dinar is in country anyway so getting the bigger bills back should be no problem at all....just a matter of getting the citizens of Iraq to exchange for smaller bills or simply to put their money in electronic accounts in the banks.....no need to sweat it out thinking about what they are thinking about us or how they can try and screw us out of anything cause it really wont matter to them.....another big thing happening later on this year is the US pulling out the rest or the majority of all remaining troops and leaving the security in the hands of the Iraqis......In my mind that is something quite important as far as the timing or ability for Iraq to unlock the dinars exchange rate and let it appreciate....I think that is another hurdle needing to be cleared....having the US troops finally out will show to the world how stable Iraq really is, and that they can operate independantly and run/govern themselves like big boys should do.....It could play a big role in things seeing as how Kuwait didnt reinstate their currency until they were completely unoccupied....just something to think about.....not sure exactly what kind of laws or regulations (if any) are in place regarding an occupied country being able to raise the value of their currency.....I thought I remembered reading something about how they cant justify something like that being occupied by another country but I could be wrong.....these are just some of the reasons why I think that the prime time for this to kick off would be from between mid summer and end of year.....I just cant see anything happening in the next couple of months....I know you all dont like hearing that kind of stuff but hey I dont want it to be like that either!! I want this just as bad as all of you!! We are all seeing tough times with our economy in the shape its in but we gotta keep our heads up and on straight cause like everything else we have gone through as a country we can and will get through it and succeed as always!!! Thoughts? Observations? What are you all thinking seeing as how SLOW these knuckleheads are at accomplishing anything?? Im pretty confident that the value should start to go up this year.....I really dont see any reason why it couldnt and why it wont.....but as the saying goes..... "this is Iraq"

[Bamaboy]

Could not agree more. Any time would be alright though.

Thanks, enjoyed it Keep.

[ha ha]

thank you for this post. Hoping you are wrong but you could be right

[BanG]

As always Keep I think you have some pretty good wisdom in this. I agree with you, Iraq has to pass this budget ASAP, Seat the security ministers and then at all costs FOCUS on the Iraqi peoples needs. These poor people are so desperate and living under such poor conditions that if the GOI does not address these issues ASAP we could be looking at another Egypt here. When a man has a wife and "On Average 4 children" to look after be damned if he will watch and wait while they go without and starve or live in dirt. Conditions are ripe right now for this WHOLE region to flop, People are fed up with empty promises and the greed they have seen thus far. With America having no real leader or for that matter a foreign policy all the rest of the world is beginning to take note and we are losing respect globally. Ya know just a quick point here I served in the military when Ronald Reagan was pres and let me tell you PEOPLE Respected America, when Air force One was coming into Germany one time some people had shown up 2 days prior to the arrival holding little American flags JUST TO SEE THE PRESIDENT! Our current goon This I could not believe BOWED to the Saudi King!!!! NO AMERICAN PRESIDENT HAS EVER BOWED TO ANOTHER LEADER!!! Then he gets on Al Jazera..... hope I spelled that right, In the interview he spent half of it apologizing to the Middle East for how we have treated them!!! I almost had my planned coronary at that point. OK back to the point Nice post Keep and I agree with you on this one too. Peace.

[caboguy]

Let's say that your correct and we are several months away. Most everyone is good with that, I think.

Let's consider the process that they should go through in the meanwhile:

1. PUMP OIL EVERYDAY and KEEP bombers away and create their own military and DEFENSE Ministry

2. Finish the government seating and build some trust with each Ministry

3. Pass the budget and finance year long goals

4. Work on providing Electricity to the people and a welfare system to keep it stable.

5. Build agriculture support mechanisms and infrastructure.

5 PUMP MORE OIL and build reserves

6. Tax foreigners working and in-country tax system to have government sustain based on diversity away from commodities such as natural gas and oil (non-renewable resources). Actually build an economy of services. Enterprise rent-a-cars, grocery stores, comic and book stores, flower shops, Jimmy John's....I bet SADR will love the US then.

7. GET DFI FUNDS BACK

When to RV.....before Paris Treaty and Kuwait get paid? Pay them after RV correct. But is it possible to RV prior to paying them back or is it a condition of RV that has to be met prior?

What about the role of China and the US at odds or Long Term debt? Irrelevant to the RV? Part of a bigger Bush Plan or Rothchilds Plan to save the monetary system and faith in the USD?

[keepmwlknfny]

When to RV.....before Paris Treaty and Kuwait get paid? Pay them after RV correct. But is it possible to RV prior to paying them back or is it a condition of RV that has to be met prior?

What about the role of China and the US at odds or Long Term debt? Irrelevant to the RV? Part of a bigger Bush Plan or Rothchilds Plan to save the monetary system and faith in the USD?

Paris Treaty? Are you talking about the Paris Club debt?? I dont think that is tied into the RV.....if thats the one your talking about its the one that all the "gurus" said that they would have to RV by the end of 2010 or get all the debt back lol....thats the only paris thing I remember.....if its something diff then explain that one! Not so sure what would be better for them to do....wait till after RV to pay Kuwait or before....and of course there is no way to know if thats a condition of it....just speculation......We all would like to think that this RV is to save the monetary system world wide since there seems to be such a struggle but you woulda thought it would have happened already if thats the case....especially with the bailout of greece and then you have Ireland over there that has already spent upwards of 1000% of its GDP....things are bad....In my eyes this would have already popped if it was so closely tied in to saving the global monetary system but I guess we will have to wait on that one!! But I do agree with all the other points you made....Its time for Iraq to step up and take care of business so that this can go off without a hitch.....

[caboguy]

Definitely the Paris Club payback which is now scheduled for June 2011 (I thought I saw an official statement on that).

Agreed. QE 3 or 4 is coming pretty quickly. Tax return season will cause the US fits with cashflow and either the Federal Reserve will need to crank up another 500- 1 Trillion or we get it from a variety of avenues. But the government needs the money to operate and Congress will be voting on it pretty soon.

Let's say the dollar drops 15% in value in the next 6 mos...will the Dinar make a move northward 20% or not?

[keepmwlknfny]

Definitely the Paris Club payback which is now scheduled for June 2011 (I thought I saw an official statement on that).

Agreed. QE 3 or 4 is coming pretty quickly. Tax return season will cause the US fits with cashflow and either the Federal Reserve will need to crank up another 500- 1 Trillion or we get it from a variety of avenues. But the government needs the money to operate and Congress will be voting on it pretty soon.

Let's say the dollar drops 15% in value in the next 6 mos...will the Dinar make a move northward 20% or not?

Ok, if Im not mistaken the paris club payback is basically any money not allocated to projects to rebuild Iraq and get it back on its feet that is left over and not involved with any of those projects has to be given back....not really paying back ALL those debts and loans that were forgiven.......the way I see it is that if the dollar keeps dropping, it will only close the gap between the value of the IDQ and USD which of course is good for us since we are holding dinar, but overall no bueno for our economy......one of my good friends who trades forex predicted that most of the profit that we will see off this investment will be from the dollar dropping in value.....dont get the wrong idea because he is invested in dinar and sees it as a good thing to be involved in but he is even more skeptical then I of all of us waking up millionares.....I sure hope he is wrong!!!

[caboguy]

We all know it's simple econ 101 or shall we say 901. Lots of factors here that need to be accounted for including: comodities, instability, democracy, mirror system of our banking system (thanks to the Rothchilds), China's desire for oil, gold and every meta physical resource they can get their hands on, comparable valuations of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, The amount of total Dinar in float right now vs. what is been taken off the streets etc.

[hammy]

I agree with keeps on most everything he says, except for the amount he sometimes thinks the dinar will originally post at. Kuwaiti Dinar was pegged to the USD Which was on a Sunday btw. From March 18, 1975 to January 4, 2003 the dinar was pegged to a weighted currency basket. From January 5, 2003 until May 20, 2007, the pegging was switched to 1 U.S. dollar = 0.29963 dinar with margins of ±3.5%.[2]. The central rate translates to approximately 1 dinar = 3.33745 dollars.

From June 16, 2007, the Kuwaiti dinar was re-pegged to a basket of currencies,[3] and is now worth about US$3.45 (€2.37). It is the world's highest-valued currency unit.

I thought that if it did not R.V. by the end of 2010 (which because of the Paris Club) I thought it might, then we were looking at June of 2011 the earliest and if not by then there is no telling. I btw believe it will R.V. to at least the value of the USD, probably higher though.

Edited February 12, 2011 by hammy

[thunderrb]

This is really a great conversation w/ really strong reasonable points. I'm hoping and praying Iraq will RV before the Summit in Mar. I believe they will want to be the big dog on the block. I realize there are things that still need to be accomplished, I think the unrest in the ME will speed up the process. If we have to wait to mid year, I'm ok w/ that. I been waiting 5 1/2 yrs, couple more months won't kill me..

[Soldier]

I personally think that everything you said can be done quicker with an RV. I also think that with the RV you could accomplish everything you said faster. Why put off tomorrow, on what you can accomplish today. If and only "If" they had plans for an RV before 2010 (as mentioned on the Forex website). All the things you said are holding it up are either are done or close enough to being done or not important enough to stop it.

If you want to p*** a bunch of people off (like I usually do). I see no reason for a RV now when you can hold it up to the end of the year or early 2012. This will give our current president the opportunity to show America that the economy is growing and Iraq is liberated and look at all the good things (He) has done since coming into power. Might just give him an edge by election time.

This has always been political and since it didn't happen in the September, October time frame (like I suspected to help the democrats). I really feel that he (Osama) won't let that happen again.

[wingsofhope]

I don't know were everyone got the idea that an RV is needed to take care of the Paris Treaty and Kuwait, I guess it came from the dipsticks and lugnuts over at the GET Team.

The fact is those agreements are to be paid in oil and oil revenues, NOT Dinar !...I'm sure it will RV and probably within the next couple of months but not at the rate of 3 to 5 USD. You are going to see more of a .350 to .750 exchange rate which is a huge success for Iraq. It will no doubt go up from there over the years but it will take time.

[salespro]

thank you for this post. Hoping you are wrong but you could be right

I feel the same way...But, Thank you for the post...Still hoping end of February

[cash1324]

I personally think that you need a RV to get the economy moving faster.With an RV and a Tradeable currency you will get the private sector moving a lot quicker creating jobs and rebuilding the country.With out an RV you are pretty well dependent on the Gov to stimulate the country and you know how fast they work.They need an RV of about .85 to 1.00 and then let it float on the world market..

[leola]

You make a lot of sense keep,,,iraq is still bickering over who will fill the remaining positions in the ministry... This does not mean they are not addressing the needs of the people,they have inked many contracts for everything from oil, to, electric plants ,to sewage..It would seem to me,jmo,that iraq will shoot for a date like june 15,2011,ahead of the FDI protection expiration,,just as a point of progress achieved..They have had trouble getting things done ,and ,need dates to try to reach agreements.March summit will be a time for the iraqi`s to bounce ideas off thier contemporaries in regard to R V.

I JUST NOW RECIEVED A CALL FROM BB&T BANK,,,THEY ARE NO LONGER GOING TO BE SELLING DINARS,,,SATURDAY 9:30 AM 2/13 2011

THERE HAS TO BE SOME REASON FOR THE BANKS TO BE BACKING AWAY FROM THE DINAR,,,I AM NOT TRYING TO SPREAD FEAR JUST LOOKING FOR INPUT AS TO WHY...

[jola]

Keep,

Man, you just described ALMOST the worst case scenario - cause the worst one would be - they never RV...

I will take a break from the forums now. Just kidding...

No, really, you are making some good points there, but how about Shabs saying he will do the 000s thing right after the Gov is done?

[easyrider]

You make a lot of sense keep,,,iraq is still bickering over who will fill the remaining positions in the ministry... This does not mean they are not addressing the needs of the people,they have inked many contracts for everything from oil, to, electric plants ,to sewage..It would seem to me,jmo,that iraq will shoot for a date like june 15,2011,ahead of the FDI protection expiration,,just as a point of progress achieved..They have had trouble getting things done ,and ,need dates to try to reach agreements.March summit will be a time for the iraqi`s to bounce ideas off thier contemporaries in regard to R V.

I JUST NOW RECIEVED A CALL FROM BB&T BANK,,,THEY ARE NO LONGER GOING TO BE SELLING DINARS,,,SATURDAY 9:30 AM 2/13 2011

THERE HAS TO BE SOME REASON FOR THE BANKS TO BE BACKING AWAY FROM THE DINAR,,,I AM NOT TRYING TO SPREAD FEAR JUST LOOKING FOR INPUT AS TO WHY...

could be MANY reasons why?

1. RV is coming and they have now been advised to stop selling

2. Banks are trying to save their butts in case something goes belly up

3. Could be to discourage people from buying dinar because to much is in circulation now

4.tired of people calling and asking ?'s and simply dont want to put up with the B.S. anymore

I am HOPING its #1

[Marquess]

Thanks for the insight Keep. I don't think Iraq is capable to rebuild their infrastructure by themselves. Water, electric, sanitation.... as you mentioned. I've always assumed that they would need foreign assistance (contracting foreign company's) to assist in the rebuilding. They've even stated that themselves. Believe me when I say I have absolutely no experience in int'l business contracts such as these so i go by what I read. Don't they need a strong currency to even approach these company's with possible investment in the country. Investment being the work outlined above?

Occupied country. i don't think you can consider them an occupied country anymore with only 50,000 troops there for "security" reasons. Supposedly, all combat forces have left. At first, I didn't think we would ever see all our troops come back. figured it would be another Germany. But then i remembered that we are dealing with the arab culture who have spent years and years of despising us and for the most part, would rather us be gone instead of having water and electric. So, I'm not confident anymore with my original stance on that. But I wouldn't call them an occupied country as of right now.

Thanks for your comments and keeping people thinking.

[Tubbs]

I want it next week

But in the real world I'll take this year

Thanks for your spin on things and keeping it REAL

[caboguy]

I was told by 5th 3rd bank that they don't sell IQD in Ohio and don't buy it either. The lady told me that they get 5 inquiries per day and all the tellers were told it's a scam by someone in the bank. We had a little point / counterpoint and by the time I was done, she wrote down dinarvets site. I just simply told her....don't get skunked and not have invested a measley $250.00 to get yourself $200,000 Dinar...just in case....lol. Then I walked away and told her good luck with her job.

[hame55]

As you all know by now I guess im considered the "devils advocate" of this site But if thats what it is trying to look at this investment from down here on the ground then so be it!! I personally dont think that we will be seeing the RV in the months ahead of us.....although seeing the unrest in the surrounding countries in the middle east COULD speed things up a little bit.....Im sure you have all seen the articles that came out late last year and possibly early this year about the new budget. Shabs almost in exact words said that the budget for the 2011 year has been filled with policies/reforms/plans to see the dinar rise in value....cant get much clearer then that and there is no one I would like to hear that from more then shabs himself since he does control the exchange rate.....now most of these "gurus" spin this kind of information into meaning that as soon as the budget is done that it will RV.....that is not quite true.....you can bet thats not the first agenda on the table.....believe it or not there are basic needs that must be tended to first like plans to get more areas running water or electricity or heck even waste management!!! Yes of course giving the people more purchasing power is VERY important but like I said, dont expect it to be said and done immediately after the budget is ratified.....they need some time to put everything into action....to get the ball rolling economically speaking so they can strongly support any moves made with the exchange rate and purchasing power.....they also need things to settle down a bit.....get a strong hold on the people and whats going on security wise throughout the country....stability plays a HUGE role in a countries currencies worth believe it or not.....it can be done....I have faith it WILL be done but this is not an easy process....besides that we have the DFI fund that is up in June.....now I dont know EVERYTHING there is to know about it but Im pretty sure this will release a ton of funds back into the govts hands which def couldnt hurt.....something to build up reserves not only with dinar, but international reserves as well which would be VERY important for outside/foreign investors who will most likely be getting paid not in dinar but in their respective countries currency.....Im not going to make a huge deal about it because really they dont need to be worried about having trillions sitting aside for us and the people of Iraq.....they arent even worried about us.....we are just a grain of sand in a huge sandbox....90% (probly higher) of the dinar is in country anyway so getting the bigger bills back should be no problem at all....just a matter of getting the citizens of Iraq to exchange for smaller bills or simply to put their money in electronic accounts in the banks.....no need to sweat it out thinking about what they are thinking about us or how they can try and screw us out of anything cause it really wont matter to them.....another big thing happening later on this year is the US pulling out the rest or the majority of all remaining troops and leaving the security in the hands of the Iraqis......In my mind that is something quite important as far as the timing or ability for Iraq to unlock the dinars exchange rate and let it appreciate....I think that is another hurdle needing to be cleared....having the US troops finally out will show to the world how stable Iraq really is, and that they can operate independantly and run/govern themselves like big boys should do.....It could play a big role in things seeing as how Kuwait didnt reinstate their currency until they were completely unoccupied....just something to think about.....not sure exactly what kind of laws or regulations (if any) are in place regarding an occupied country being able to raise the value of their currency.....I thought I remembered reading something about how they cant justify something like that being occupied by another country but I could be wrong.....these are just some of the reasons why I think that the prime time for this to kick off would be from between mid summer and end of year.....I just cant see anything happening in the next couple of months....I know you all dont like hearing that kind of stuff but hey I dont want it to be like that either!! I want this just as bad as all of you!! We are all seeing tough times with our economy in the shape its in but we gotta keep our heads up and on straight cause like everything else we have gone through as a country we can and will get through it and succeed as always!!! Thoughts? Observations? What are you all thinking seeing as how SLOW these knuckleheads are at accomplishing anything?? Im pretty confident that the value should start to go up this year.....I really dont see any reason why it couldnt and why it wont.....but as the saying goes..... "this is Iraq"

Great perspective here. This is more like the big picture. Easy to get lost among the trees and miss the forest. Yet there is more to all this than Walkin' funny has explored. I think we all know why we are in Iraq. It is part of the American economic empire, and oil is the lynchpin.

I have been ambivalent about this investment from an ethical standpoint - I don't think possession of their resources is our business. So the war was a mistake - an imperial venture to control future oil reserves and give us a strong foothold in the ME to control the rest of the oil and gas in the region (i.e. Iran). So I am uncomfortable with that.

But now it is done. We now have Iraq as a client state again, after Saddam rebelled and stated he would take oil contracts from the axis bloc and dump the dollar as the currency of exchange for oil. That's why we invaded. Al Qaeda was secondary.

Given it is now our client state, why not take advantage of the RV. Everyone else is. That has been my thinking. Call it hypocritical, greedy, whatever. The other side is I would like to see peace and prosperity come to these poor people, who have suffer eleven years BEFORE we invaded in the first gulf war in '91 and then ten years of US sanctions ruining their country. It is this idea that they should come out of their hole and be a part of the world again that drives me now (and the money).

We have built more than thirteen permanent mega-bases in country and I don't believe the US intends to leave, in a real sense, for a very long time (see Korea). The Navy is parked out in the yard, and we'll be inside the house in our bases for decades to come. Everyone on this site keeps asking - why is this taking so long? Well, it could take a lot longer. Imagine if another country occupied the US as we have in Iraq. We would fight back. That's what is going to take so long. Not only are we fighting Al Qaeda in Iraq, but some of the Iraqis who are pissed we are still there. I'm talking sabotage of pipelines, electricity, security issues, oil ports, refinery facility attacks...you name it. Anything to sabotage the new Washington client state in the ME.

Do we really think they are going to slow the level of violence enough to foster a normal business environment? Perhaps over time. Perhaps an RV can happen before things are totally normalized, then the currency will fluctuate up and down with the stability of the country. I don't know. I do know there is a lot more to this than: "Well, you know. It's Iraq."

[keepmwlknfny]

Thanks for the insight Keep. I don't think Iraq is capable to rebuild their infrastructure by themselves. Water, electric, sanitation.... as you mentioned. I've always assumed that they would need foreign assistance (contracting foreign company's) to assist in the rebuilding. They've even stated that themselves. Believe me when I say I have absolutely no experience in int'l business contracts such as these so i go by what I read. Don't they need a strong currency to even approach these company's with possible investment in the country. Investment being the work outlined above?

Occupied country. i don't think you can consider them an occupied country anymore with only 50,000 troops there for "security" reasons. Supposedly, all combat forces have left. At first, I didn't think we would ever see all our troops come back. figured it would be another Germany. But then i remembered that we are dealing with the arab culture who have spent years and years of despising us and for the most part, would rather us be gone instead of having water and electric. So, I'm not confident anymore with my original stance on that. But I wouldn't call them an occupied country as of right now.

Thanks for your comments and keeping people thinking.

They probly do need alot of outside assistance rebuilding the country but I think for the most part they have taken over that role themselves.....when the first set of troops were pulled out, alot of the contractors did too and things were left into the hands of the iraqis....giving them more responsibility to handle it and also creating jobs for their own......the biggest thing keeping this outside investors from jumping in is the security issues and STABILITY!!! If people knew the govt would last, and it was strong, and they could control al the people no problem, people would be more willing to jump right in......no one knows whats going to happen with them.....the future of Iraq is still really uncertain, would you invest hundreds of millions of dollars if you werent confident that Iraq wouldnt break out into civil war?? As far as the troops go even at 50,000 thats still a hefty amount and thats still considered being an occupied country.....besides afgan I think thats a huge amount if you compare that to what we have scattered in other countries....not to mention the troops are still there assisting with whatever possible.....until those numbers drop and the troops are just sitting back doing nothing, and the Iraqis are in FULL control I believe t thats still considered being occupied....

[Eagle007]

I fully agree that we won't see an RV for quite a while if ever. investment in IRAQ and demand for oil will cause the rate to increase naturally. My guess is in five years you will see the rate up where the pundints are saying the RV will drop us. I bought in at only what I was willing to lose and I hope you all did also.

keepmwlknfny you have a good opinion here which I agree with. I guess time will tell.

Eagle007

[Mr. Mont]

I was told by 5th 3rd bank that they don't sell IQD in Ohio and don't buy it either. The lady told me that they get 5 inquiries per day and all the tellers were told it's a scam by someone in the bank. We had a little point / counterpoint and by the time I was done, she wrote down dinarvets site. I just simply told her....don't get skunked and not have invested a measley $250.00 to get yourself $200,000 Dinar...just in case....lol. Then I walked away and told her good luck with her job.

I am in toledo ohio and the 53 on alexis rd is still selling them as of a week ago.