Wednesday Night Opinions - 10:55 PM CDT - 1/31/2024

[ronscarpa]

REMEMBER, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what they perceive to be happening in Iraq... So, take everything with a grain of salt ...  RON 

 

 

Militia Man  Everyone's excited because we're seeing exactly what this country is doing. They're doing  what they said they're going to do.  They're working towards going international...we should all have significant confidence that  Iraq is going international...  

 

Kaperoni   I still have significant concern over Iraq wanting to redenominate (LOP) their currency. There  are numerous educational symposiums teaching the citizens about such an event. This is a very real possibility.

Should they actually LOP (which I doubt), then they will immediately Revalue the currency to a $3.22 rate (or there about). Remember the Future of Iraq Project (Bush-Cheney Plan) was to eventually return the IQD to the pre-Saddam rate of $3.33 (the Golden Dinar). Remember back in 2010, when the rumors of an RV were going around, Kuwait demanded that when Iraq  RV's they would have to agree to be a few cents below the Kuwait Dinar. If you recall, Iraq owed Kuwait billions of dollars, and agreed to comply. All before Shabibi left the CBI when being chased by Maliki. - That's what I recall. RON  

 

 

[edbeach]

53 minutes ago, ronscarpa said:

REMEMBER, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating their opinions based on what they perceive to be happening in Iraq... So, take everything with a grain of salt ...  RON 

 

 

Militia Man  Everyone's excited because we're seeing exactly what this country is doing. They're doing  what they said they're going to do.  They're working towards going international...we should all have significant confidence that  Iraq is going international...  

 

Kaperoni   I still have significant concern over Iraq wanting to redenominate (LOP) their currency. There  are numerous educational symposiums teaching the citizens about such an event. This is a very real possibility.

Should they actually LOP (which I doubt), then they will immediately Revalue the currency to a $3.22 rate (or there about). Remember the Future of Iraq Project (Bush-Cheney Plan) was to eventually return the IQD to the pre-Saddam rate of $3.33 (the Golden Dinar). Remember back in 2010, when the rumors of an RV were going around, Kuwait demanded that when Iraq  RV's they would have to agree to be a few cents below the Kuwait Dinar. If you recall, Iraq owed Kuwait billions of dollars, and agreed to comply. All before Shabibi left the CBI when being chased by Maliki. - That's what I recall. RON  

 

 

Ron I agree Iraq owed Kuwait Billions of Dollars back in 2010 but this was paid over the next few years of percentage of oil sales. So wouldn't this agreement with Kuwait to be few cents below the Kuwait Dinar become null & void now to whatever Iraq decides to make the rate? Would be nice if a few cents below but my thinking as above, hopefully not a LOP

[ronscarpa]

14 hours ago, edbeach said:

Ron I agree Iraq owed Kuwait Billions of Dollars back in 2010 but this was paid over the next few years of percentage of oil sales. So wouldn't this agreement with Kuwait to be few cents below the Kuwait Dinar become null & void now to whatever Iraq decides to make the rate? Would be nice if a few cents below but my thinking as above, hopefully not a LOP

 

Hi Ed, It's a matter of National pride with the Arab nations. Who knows what agreement they may have now - lots has changed. It all depends where Iraq will start with a new exchange rate (ER). The above is certainly a possible scenario, but I personally feel they will come out somewhat low to draw in the IQD out of country (from impatient people like us who want our money back), then strategically increase the value. Remember, all the Paris Club countries hold IQD. To have a high value too soon would be giving away a fortune. The agreement with the US was to use the IQD it holds to buy Iraqi oil at a pre-agreed rate (I think it was $35/bbl). I have no idea what other countries may have agreed to.

 

We have to look at it from the Iraqi position. Even 5 cents would cost them way more than the Lop, then coming out at a $3.50 rate. Think about it ... 1 Million IQD at 5cents per IQD = $50,000. That's a $49,000 profit if you paid $1K/mil. If they did a Lop, then immediately RV'd at $3.50,  your 1 Mil IQD = $3,500. You would have made a $2,500 profit. Then pay taxes on it. Which is better for them..? It seems obvious. 

 

Only time will tell where we end up. Personally, based on all that's happened until now, I'm hoping for at least 10 cents, although I'd love to see it much higher. I used to think they'd come out at $1.28 and a controlled float up to $2.70. Then when they feel the timing is right go to the Golden Dinar of $3.33. Times have changed. I don't quite see that happening anymore.

We have to be realistic and see how many IQD are actually out there in circulation. That figure varies greatly from 40 trillion IQD to 100 trillion IQD. 

 

As of July 2023, the market value of Iraq's natural resources is estimated to be over $15 Trillion, with that figure higher as additional oil, gas and gold reserves are discovered.  So, even with only 40 trillion IQD out there, for them to cover 1 to 1 the highest rate would be at 37 cents. At 100 trillion out there, to cover a 1 to 1, the rate would be 15 cents. Hopefully, you now have a more clear picture of reality. Hope I didn't burst your bubble. Blessings. RON

[Luigi1]

I still hold true to the three zeros lifted off the ER & not the currency.

The old & new lower denoms will co-exist together for a while until the high denoms are pulled in or destroyed.  IMHO.

[BETTYBOOP]

I agree @Luigi1. However 5 or 10 cents would do little to encourage the iraqi citizens to dump the dollar completely . Also if it is to be stronger than the dollar as Sudani has stated they would have a long way to go. As soon as it is on par woth a dollar I am gone

[HF4237]

15 minutes ago, BETTYBOOP said:

I agree @Luigi1. However 5 or 10 cents would do little to encourage the iraqi citizens to dump the dollar completely . Also if it is to be stronger than the dollar as Sudani has stated they would have a long way to go. As soon as it is on par woth a dollar I am gone

 

All things considered, ANYYY rate will do... 10 cents, 50 cents and higher. It will go up surely. $1++ would be awesome of course!! 🙏 👍  

[ronscarpa]

2 hours ago, Luigi1 said:

I still hold true to the three zeros lifted off the ER & not the currency.

The old & new lower denoms will co-exist together for a while until the high denoms are pulled in or destroyed.  IMHO.

 

That has always been my understanding. Anything else doesn't make sense. Nations use a LOP when there is hyper-inflation, which is not the case in Iraq. But, at 76.3 cents - that's 2+ to 1 which would make them a fiat currency like the rest of the world. I could easily live with that.

[edbeach]

3 hours ago, ronscarpa said:

 

Hi Ed, It's a matter of National pride with the Arab nations. Who knows what agreement they may have now - lots has changed. It all depends where Iraq will start with a new exchange rate (ER). The above is certainly a possible scenario, but I personally feel they will come out somewhat low to draw in the IQD out of country (from impatient people like us who want our money back), then strategically increase the value. Remember, all the Paris Club countries hold IQD. To have a high value too soon would be giving away a fortune. The agreement with the US was to use the IQD it holds to buy Iraqi oil at a pre-agreed rate (I think it was $35/bbl). I have no idea what other countries may have agreed to.

 

We have to look at it from the Iraqi position. Even 5 cents would cost them way more than the Lop, then coming out at a $3.50 rate. Think about it ... 1 Million IQD at 5cents per IQD = $50,000. That's a $49,000 profit if you paid $1K/mil. If they did a Lop, then immediately RV'd at $3.50,  your 1 Mil IQD = $3,500. You would have made a $2,500 profit. Then pay taxes on it. Which is better for them..? It seems obvious. 

 

Only time will tell where we end up. Personally, based on all that's happened until now, I'm hoping for at least 10 cents, although I'd love to see it much higher. I used to think they'd come out at $1.28 and a controlled float up to $2.70. Then when they feel the timing is right go to the Golden Dinar of $3.33. Times have changed. I don't quite see that happening anymore.

We have to be realistic and see how many IQD are actually out there in circulation. That figure varies greatly from 40 trillion IQD to 100 trillion IQD. 

 

As of July 2023, the market value of Iraq's natural resources is estimated to be over $15 Trillion, with that figure higher as additional oil, gas and gold reserves are discovered.  So, even with only 40 trillion IQD out there, for them to cover 1 to 1 the highest rate would be at 37 cents. At 100 trillion out there, to cover a 1 to 1, the rate would be 15 cents. Hopefully, you now have a more clear picture of reality. Hope I didn't burst your bubble. Blessings. RON

Ron No you didn'j My thought was what Adam had said years ago in his talks with us 03 cents to 10 cents I was believing come out at 10 cents . Cashing in at least half my holdings, holding the rest for next increase. Thanks for your insite to this crazy investment , Ed Beach

[rvmydinar]

16 hours ago, ronscarpa said:

 

So, even with only 40 trillion IQD out there, for them to cover 1 to 1 the highest rate would be at 37 CENTS

 

At 100 trillion out there, to cover a 1 to 1, the rate would be 15 CENTS

Just wonder, how did you come up with 37 cents and 15 cents Ron??