Iraq is finished. Welcome – not that you will be – to Sunnistan

[umbertino]

By Colin Freeman World Last updated: June 23rd, 2014

 

 

 

Gathering dust in the villa where I am staying in Baghdad is a copy of what must be the most rewritten guidebook of modern times.

 

It's a travel guide called "Iraq then and now", published by Bradt, a British firm that specialises in countries where the Lonely Planet fears to tread.

 

Rather like their tome on North Korea, their Iraq edition is somewhat hostage to events, necessitating hastily written addendums for the benefit of the few adventure tourists who come here.

 

Already, my villa’s 2008 version – penned when Iraq seemed to be finally emerging from its brutal civil war – seems somewhat out of date. And as a friend who contributes to the guide wearily informs me, the deadline for the latest edition was looming earlier this month – so yet again, the guide may have a section saying "As we went to press …"

 

This time, however, I fear the changes may be far greater than before. And in coming years, Bradt may well have to produce not one guide to Iraq, but two or three – for all the signs are right now that the country may be about to split for good.

 

In the north and west, where Isis militants and ex-Ba'athists now hold Mosul and Tikrit, the thinking now is that the Iraqi government may never get them back.

 

Not only is the Iraqi army badly run and demoralised, it is up against an insurgency that has already proved one of the most lethal in the world, having held its own for nearly a decade against the US military.

 

While the odd US air strike might help the Iraqi security forces a bit, the most they might hope for is retaking Tikrit, a relatively small place.

 

Mosul seems out of the question, as do Fallujah and Ramadi to the west, which Isis seized five months ago and has successfully defended ever since.

 

To put this in a British context, it's the rough equivalent of London losing control of Birmingham and the Midlands plus Bristol and the West Country, plus many towns in between.

 

In effect, a new state is being carved out, broadly along the lines of Iraq's Sunni Muslim heartlands, where Sunnis will be free from the writ of the Shia-led government that they say treats them as second-class citizens.

 

Given that the Sunnis did much the same when they were in power under Saddam, it was always a safe bet that a Shia regime might look on them less than sympathetically.

 

But even so, I can't imagine Sunnistan, or whatever it will be called, being a happy place, much less warranting a Bradt guide of its own.

 

For a start, the fledgling nation's new masters will most likely be the religious zealots of Isis, rather than the more secular, nationalist Ba'athists with whom they have allied.

 

Debate has been raging as to which of these two factions is piggybacking onto which, but informed sources appear to think that it is Isis who have the whip hand.

 

Which, of course, means turning Sunnistan into a 14th-century caliphate, with no boozing, no dancing, and no fun of any sort. Save, perhaps, for watching the odd crucifixion of the a hapless foreigner with his Bradt tourist guide.

 

The only hope will be that Isis makes the same mistakes in Iraq as their predecessors al-Qaeda did, whereby their sheer brutality ultimately sparks a popular rebellion.

 

But it could be several very painful years before that happens. And in the meantime, Sunnistan will be a pariah state, fused with Isis turf in Syria to become the living embodiment of the Islamic State of Iraq and al Shams.

 

It isn't just Sunni Iraq that is at risk of breaking away though. Recent events may also see the Kurdish north, which is semi-independent anyway, sever all what remains of their fractious relationship the rest of the country.

 

There is fury in Baghdad at the way Kurdish troops occupied the oil-rich city of Kirkuk after the Iraqi army melted away, a prize the Kurds are now unlikely to hand back.

 

Many Shias believe the Kurds deliberately plotted with Isis for it to happen this way, and while that may sound like the stuff of conspiracy theories, the facts either way do not matter. In Iraq’s paranoid, vicious political sphere, the version of events that people wish to believe is the one that often becomes the truth.

 

All of which will turn what was Iraq into a trio of small, quarrelsome statelets, only one of which – Kurdistan – seems to have much going for it. Sunnistan will be a nightmare, while Baghdad and the south will have to survive with the Middle East's equivalent of Somalia on its doorstep, doing its best all the time to destabilise its neighbour.

 

It's a gloomy picture, and as a regular visitor to this country, I hope I re-read this blog in a few years' time and wonder what rubbish I was spouting.

 

Perhaps, instead, I will be sitting with a beer by the river Tigris, pondering the latest edition of the Bradt guide to a Happily Unified Iraq and planning a nice trip up to the thriving city of Mosul.

 

But I'm not the only one who's pessimistic. Many Iraqis I know have been spouting this apocalyptic vision for years. Every time I come here, I meet up for a discreet drink with my old translator, a disillusioned Saddam-era tank commander who is partial to a foul cocktail of whisky and Turkish lager (I call it a Chemical Ali).

 

And every time we have clinked glasses – through bad times and not-so-bad – he lights a cigarette, swigs his potent brew, and declares sadly: "Iraq is f–––––, my friend."

 

This time, I fear he might finally be right.

 

 

 

 

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/colinfreeman/100277283/iraq-is-finished-welcome-not-that-you-will-be-to-sunnistan/

[skeetdog]

Thanks umbertino...You musta woke up with the Blues...Sad song your singing bout Iraq... They don't have much to do over there, so they don't get along....

[umbertino]

Thanks umbertino...You musta woke up with the Blues...Sad song your singing bout Iraq... They don't have much to do over there, so they don't get along....

Hello skeetdog... Just reporting , my Friend...

[SocalDinar]

I tend to agree with this Umbertino

Hope all is well in Italy

Did you ever get a chance to take that long needed vacation my friend?

[k98nights]

The editorial seems spot on to me personally....By now it's obvious that the only thing that can keep the country together is a ruthless dictator.  Maybe once that happens again we'll get our RV. The Iraqis are a bunch of undisciplined hateful and murderous children...only a dictator can keep them in their places with fear and terror. Without that, they sink into the anarchy they're in today....slaughtering infants, men, woman, and children in the name of Allah. 

[umbertino]

I tend to agree with this Umbertino

Hope all is well in Italy

Did you ever get a chance to take that long needed vacation my friend?

Hello SD..... Nice to hear from you.. Hope you and yours are fine...No, I didn't get the chance as of yet... Thanks for asking, my Friend.... Still fighting with my bank acct.... Smile....Trying to stay optimistic ( not RV-wise  but  in general...)

 

 

 Maybe I'll be able to take a short vacation later in the summer in one of my fav. countries...Spain. We'll see.

Edited June 23, 2014 by umbertino

[calkid11]

Thank you

[sandfly]

THANKS

[Nelg]

The MEastern way of governing today is the way governing has been since the inception of their religious principles by their founder.  The western mind has a hard time with understanding those principles: might makes right.  Peace is only achieved when all those that disagree with the ruling sect are killed, totally submissive, and become slaves of the other groups will, command, or opinion.  One can trace the "political mentality" of the ME by tracing the religious mindset of the ruling party.  But that is not necessary.  History is unveiled today in the struggle for power and control throughout the region.  Nor does it stop with the at the border of Iraq.  One only has to name a country in the ME and point to their "political" struggle; including the struggles of Israel and Palestine.  

But this is not confined to just to the MEastern countries.  Anywhere you find a Muslim state you will find a persecution of the minority groups whoever they may be, especially those who are a different sect of Muslim.  It is their way of governing.  The moderate Muslim who would work for a "united" government are few and far between.  Moderates find it extremely difficult to govern because they are viewed as capitulatory and weak by those of their particular Muslim denominational group. support for a moderate governing a divided Muslim country would be to "deny their faith" no matter what group is in office. 

When the US government comes in an advocates a "moderate" government that will unify the differing sides is commendable but futile.  You cannot come in and change a mindset in just ten years.  It will take an entire generation before change is seen.  

[dontlop]

Is there any country over there that isn't run by dictators authoritarian iron fisted brutal regimes

Iraq tried to vote but when Maliki won everyone seems to cry foul

The majority is shitte

The shitte will win every time

They vote by religion over there

So the next iron fist in Iraq will be shitte

And so will the next

And if people over there want to use violence to stop the legal voting procedure and start killing when they lose

Expect the gun ships to respond in self defense

The central govt is who will be getting outside support

The jets and helicopters and bombs will be going to the central govt

It won't be to long in the future before they all abide just like they do in all the rest of those country's over there

Heads will roll

Literally on the ground

But in the end like it or not the central govt will rule Iraq

I agree nelg

[AmericaInc]

The MEastern way of governing today is the way governing has been since the inception of their religious principles by their founder.  The western mind has a hard time with understanding those principles: might makes right.  Peace is only achieved when all those that disagree with the ruling sect are killed, totally submissive, and become slaves of the other groups will, command, or opinion.  One can trace the "political mentality" of the ME by tracing the religious mindset of the ruling party.  But that is not necessary.  History is unveiled today in the struggle for power and control throughout the region.  Nor does it stop with the at the border of Iraq.  One only has to name a country in the ME and point to their "political" struggle; including the struggles of Israel and Palestine.  

But this is not confined to just to the MEastern countries.  Anywhere you find a Muslim state you will find a persecution of the minority groups whoever they may be, especially those who are a different sect of Muslim.  It is their way of governing.  The moderate Muslim who would work for a "united" government are few and far between.  Moderates find it extremely difficult to govern because they are viewed as capitulatory and weak by those of their particular Muslim denominational group. support for a moderate governing a divided Muslim country would be to "deny their faith" no matter what group is in office. 

When the US government comes in an advocates a "moderate" government that will unify the differing sides is commendable but futile.  You cannot come in and change a mindset in just ten years.  It will take an entire generation before change is seen.  

Quote from above:  "One can trace the "political mentality" of the ME by tracing the religious mindset of the ruling party"

 

Well put Nelg - one can do that here in the States too. I refer you to the the fundamentalist views of the Republican Party. That idea is behind the book "American Taliban" A good read.

 

"Moderates find it difficult to govern" here as well. Too many religious zealots. But it's hard to look at ourselves and easier to point fingers....

Edited June 24, 2014 by AmericaInc

[chess]

KILLLINGS AND BRUTALITY :: MUSLIMS ..as.. FREEDOM AND APPLE PIE :: AMERICANS

[chess]

......generalizing somewhat!

[dontlop]

They rule by cutting off heads

Cutting off hands for theft

Cutting off feet for theft

They made a guy marry a goat as his wife when he was caught having sex with the goat of another farmers goat

They are different that's for sure

[chess]

.....did any of the goats complain??

[DoD]

Did he have KIDD'ssss

[ReinMan]

How funny..... things actually WERE better under Saddam.

He might've been strict but no one screwed around, the dinar was over $3, and no one DARED invade or set off a bomb.

[Captjohn]

Welcome to the Iraq of the 13th century....the Great Caliphate....made possible by Barack Obama.  What a guy.

[ReinMan]

No, made possible by BUSH, who started this whole thing!

Obama just inherited it.

It's not his fault that Maliki and his army are wussies.

[Nelg]

Quote from above:  "One can trace the "political mentality" of the ME by tracing the religious mindset of the ruling party"

 

Well put Nelg - one can do that here in the States too. I refer you to the the fundamentalist views of the Republican Party. That idea is behind the book "American Taliban" A good read.

 

"Moderates find it difficult to govern" here as well. Too many religious zealots. But it's hard to look at ourselves and easier to point fingers....

Thankfully we are a nation that makes a separation between religion and politics.  Nor do we settle our differences by killing each other.  Any religion that kills individual who have a different philosophy is corrupt and damnable, but you don't declare a killing war on them.