SWFG Interview Part 1

[JJ7]

No, my math isn't wrong. I didn't say that 750 billion is what they'd need in foreign reserves, I said that's what they'd need to reduce their M2 to.

So, 7.5 trillion in reserves. If, tomorrow, they magically created non oil industries exporting 100 billion USD worth of goods a year, and spent NONE of that money on imports, just let it build up in their reserves, it'd take 75 years to hit your .10 value. Is that the kind of timeframe you're looking for?

Edited May 28, 2013 by JJ7

[hame55]

Yes that is what I am saying.  Fiat does not mean "you can set it to anything", it just means the physical currency is representational not valuable itself (e.g. like a gold coin would be).  All currencies today are fiat as far as I know.  The distinction is floating or pegged.  If it floats the central bank can not set the rate as its up to the market and currently the market isn't even supporting 1166 rate as JJ7 points out.  If its pegged than the central bank has to cover it with reserves as they have to meet all exchange requests and Iraq has $75B USD in reserves so at present they are limited to around 1000 to 1 (a bit better than the current rate but not remotely close to 1000x of the current rate).  If you think a currency can be backed by oil in the ground please explain how as I don't see it, nor does any other oil producing country it seems.

Why is it that Libya, which just finished a civil war, lost their currency value, then has been set at 1 USD= 1.28 Libyan dinar? (approx)

 

You have been stating categorically that that Iraq could not sustain even a penny, while this country can? Yes, I know they are not the same as Iraq in many aspects, however if they can sustain that rate, 2/3 of a dollar, with all of Iraq's potential, you maintain it cannot go above a penny? Please...

Edited May 28, 2013 by hame55

[fib1618]

Why is it that Libya, which just finished a civil war, lost their currency value, then has been set at 1 USD= 1.28 Libyan dinar? (approx)

You have been stating categorically that that Iraq could not sustain even a penny, while this country can? Yes, I know they are not the same as Iraq in many aspects, however if they can sustain that rate, 2/3 of a dollar, with all of Iraq's potential, you maintain it cannot go above a penny? Please...

Libya's currency didn't lose its value. The just simply replaced the currency. Nobody made any money.

[dontlop]

now he claims to know about everyone ..  saying nobody made any money .. i guess hes got intel like okie .. he knows what everybody made or didnt make in the entire world now ..

 but he makes  his money in tenths of a penny at a time .. lol ..if that .. but nobody made any money off the lybia dinar .. nobody ..lol

[rockfl9]

Note that SWFGs interviewee did not cover the RV/RI/Float subject.

He did say that the CBI IS NOT in control of the exchange rate, that's not true.. The CBI may rely on the advice of IMF, WB, UN etc. but the CBI will make the final decision. What the plan is for June I don't know but I hope it is not a significant change in the rate. Let me explain. Today in most countries the only buyers for dinar would be the dealers! All the dealers I know are set up as LLCs (limited Liability Corps) Lightly capitalized, as long as they can continue to sell much more than they buy they profit .. But what would happen if the RV was 1 cent .. 1Mil is now $10,000. Who would buy? WELL you say that's OK I'll just sell $9000 profit. HA, who will buy? At what price ? If they were smart the dealers kept taking all excess cash out of the corporate account. Good fiscal protection . Faced with having to risk dollars back in the business I think they simply close shop ,RV the dinar that is in inventory AND disappear. We should not want an RV until there is an alternate path of exchange.

[fib1618]

Lol

[caz1104]

now he claims to know about everyone ..  saying nobody made any money .. i guess hes got intel like okie .. he knows what everybody made or didnt make in the entire world now ..

 but he makes  his money in tenths of a penny at a time .. lol ..if that .. but nobody made any money off the lybia dinar .. nobody ..lol

He read it on the internet, must be true-lol

[fib1618]

He read it on the internet, must be true-lol

Just like this big ole rv we have coming in June. Lol

[caz1104]

Just like this big ole rv we have coming in June. Lol

Really...............does it bother you that much that there are folks make predictions? Why would it bother you, you  have no monetary involvement.........right? Predictions/Speculating happens daily in all aspects of business/finance..........etc.  And please don't go down the road of "pumpers" &  "liers" unless you have proof that these people knowingly are such.

Edited May 28, 2013 by caz1104

[fib1618]

Really...............does it bother you that much that there are folks make predictions? Happens daily in all aspects of business/finance..........etc. And please don't go down the road of "pumpers" & "liers" unless you have proof that these people knowingly are such.

They are just misinterpreting the articles in this case. I say they are talking about steps in June to boost the Market rate. They are saying its an rv. I'm very confident when I log in on the last day in June the exchange rate will still be at 1166 to 1.

[caz1104]

Confidence doesn't mean your right...............or wrong. Again why does it bother you such that someone might have a differing opinion? Is it because you don't get the accolades it appears you seek? A prediction/speculation is just that...........not a guarantee. You quite possibly will be right about june..............but so what. After ten years is it really that difficult saying something won't happen - peace

[Darin]

No, my math isn't wrong. I didn't say that 750 billion is what they'd need in foreign reserves, I said that's what they'd need to reduce their M2 to.

So, 7.5 trillion in reserves. If, tomorrow, they magically created non oil industries exporting 100 billion USD worth of goods a year, and spent NONE of that money on imports, just let it build up in their reserves, it'd take 75 years to hit your .10 value. Is that the kind of timeframe you're looking for?

I think many fail to realize that with their current exports being predominately oil was due to recent trade restrictions from sanctions. With the recent lifting of the trade restrictions, they've recently been able to start legally exporting goods. This will help improve other industries that are not dependent upon oil exports. The oil exports will be good as it helps rebuild the war-torn country to improve their infrastructure. For the most part, exporting oil will always be their main source of GDP in terms of percentages. While even their economy does grow with private sectors, manufacturing, or even the mining of precious metals and other resources, their infrastructure will have improved to produce more barrels per day which will lead to higher volumes of crude pumped out. If the money is used properly to rebuild the country properly, other sectors will form and improve. This may create an external demand from other countries to buy their goods. We can look at unemployment levels, as they are steadily decreasing which is a good sign for the country. This will mean that internal demand will maintain as well. One of the current problems is a need for de-dollarization. If they can get the people to prefer dinars over dollars, this may close the gap of the market rate and the official rate.

They are just misinterpreting the articles in this case. I say they are talking about steps in June to boost the Market rate. They are saying its an rv. I'm very confident when I log in on the last day in June the exchange rate will still be at 1166 to 1.

 

You are probably right. I know from reading that June of 2013 is when bank restructures are supposed to come to a conclusion. This may play a factor in how they close that gap. Still won't change the demand from the public simply by who trades the cash. The market rate may close in on the official rate, but that just makes dollars even more appealing. They will continue to seek dollars over dinars. No incentive to keep using dinars if dollars are available and widely accepted.

 

[fib1618]

Confidence doesn't mean your right...............or wrong. Again why does it bother you such that someone might have a differing opinion? Is it because you don't get the accolades it appears you seek? A prediction/speculation is just that...........not a guarantee. You quite possibly will be right about june..............but so what. After ten years is it really that difficult saying something won't happen - peace

It doesn't bother me. What is giving you that impression?

[caz1104]

It doesn't bother me. What is giving you that impression?

[fib1618]

It doesn't bother me. What is giving you that impression?

Where's your comment? Lol

[caz1104]

LOL..................seriously. Sometimes I think you really believe what you post - lol

[fib1618]

LOL..................seriously. Sometimes I think you really believe what you post - lol

Some of it. Lol

[skeptic1138]

Why is it that Libya, which just finished a civil war, lost their currency value, then has been set at 1 USD= 1.28 Libyan dinar? (approx)

 

You have been stating categorically that that Iraq could not sustain even a penny, while this country can? Yes, I know they are not the same as Iraq in many aspects, however if they can sustain that rate, 2/3 of a dollar, with all of Iraq's potential, you maintain it cannot go above a penny? Please...

In 2010 (so not clear what is happening now) Libya's M2 was about 45B dinar and their M2 to Reserves ratio was 0.3 at their 2010 exchange rate (so they had about 3x the reserves needed to sustain that rate).  Iraq's M2 is 75T dinar and their M2 to reserve ratio at the current exchange rate is around 0.95 (i.e. they have a small surplus) .  The dominant factor for the exchange rate of pegged currencies is money supply (at least M1, some use M2) compared to their reserves. Going to a 1 IQD to 1 penny would require roughly 10x the reserves Iraq has presently.  Its taken them about 10 years to get that 5% surplus, so getting 1000% extra is going to happen any time soon.  They might switch to covering M1 which would help a little, but hard to say.  Still that isn't going to significantly change things since their M1 and M2 are only about 15% different.

Edited May 28, 2013 by skeptic1138

[SWFloridaGuy]

Regardless of timing, the underlying value of the IQD will ultimately be supported by: 

• Massive Oil Reserves
• Massive Natural Gas Reserves
• Unexploited Gold in the ground (allegedly massive)
• Massive Ag Potential (Food & Water supplied by the Fertile Crescent) 

 

Realizing the full 'potential' of these resources will require capitalization/technology investment that simply will not occur at any kind of accelerated pace without a viable currency in place to support it (other than crude oil alone). 

 

 

1000 iQD per 1 US simply will not cut the mustard!

geman - what the heck? The Elite only care about one thing and one thing only! Power/Control of the masses. Read some of the materials that SWFG's Interview suggested and wake up. 

 

 

 

The Dude Abides.

Edited May 28, 2013 by SWFloridaGuy

[SWFloridaGuy]

A 'huge' gain is a long-shot. Many grounded people here may consider that to be true. Some of us are hoping to see some changes for the better. Maybe switching back to a crawling-peg regime will provide a chance for the official rate to rise. Is it possible for them to switch back to this currency exchange system? Of course so, history in recent years shows that they have done it and it can be something that they switch back to... So we may see small improvements from time to time, but if overall the adjustments are continuously in our favor, than we may see profits.

 

Many of us here are doubtful of a huge R/V. But the definition of huge may vary among most. I highly doubt that I will wake up and find out one day that each unit of IQD is worth $0.10 or higher, but achieving $0.10 in the long-term is not impossible. But, we can all sit here and argue the future, but none of us can see it but only offer opinions.

 

All investments have downsides... You can lose a little bit of value or possibly lose an entire investment.

 

But to say it is impossible to reach $0.01 is rather entertaining. If it requires 100% of liquid asset reserves to reach that point, I can see that your argument holds some ground. But, its not like they'll stick with 1166 forever. Changes may eventually have to occur. They may reach 1000:1, they may make their way to 750:1 from there, and slowly continue rising the value. Overnight? Hard to see it as a possibility... But it could reach that point.

 

The downside is even Iraqis within their own nation do not have demand for their own currency. They seek dollars. Must not be a whole lot of incentive to hold dinars...

 

 

Keep posting man, I have great respect for your acumen and only wish you posted more often.  Also, would love to hear more from Billi0, Carrello, and Trinityexchange. Enoch8 & Scooter.... of course the list goes on here with so many great intellects.  Please forgive me for all those I forgot to mention, I'm sure I'll be kicking myself 5 minutes after I post this for omitting many great researchers, just typing on fly here.

[zigmeister]

I always enjoy Darins post myself.  

[caz1104]

Does Scooter post anymore?

[SWFloridaGuy]

SWFG...I wish you would have asked him about their money supply and how they could pay for a 100,000% increase in valueG

 

That's a very good point.  Sorry for not asking that one because it is of course of great importance.  I will include it in my next interview.

Does Scooter post anymore?

 

Haven't seen him in a while but I always loved his posts because he would bring up issues I had never even contemplated before.  Very thought provoking and well-spoken.

[caz1104]

That's a very good point.  Sorry for not asking that one because it is of course of great importance.  I will include it in my next interview.

 

Haven't seen him in a while but I always loved his posts because he would bring up issues I had never even contemplated before.  Very thought provoking and well-spoken.

All true. He and Keep had a unique friendship(still might for all I know) - peace 

[SWFloridaGuy]

 

Edited May 28, 2013 by SWFloridaGuy