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My conversation with a Hedge Fund manager.


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I just read an article from you about emerging markets concerning Iraq. Obviously there is much speculation concerning the dinar in Iraq. Can you provide any insight into the dinar?

to me

Hi Paul: No, I don't think it's a good investment. There is no reason

whatever to expect anything other than a very gradual appreciation. There

is, however, supposed to be a redenomination, which will involve replace all

the existing notes with new ones. Anyone holding dinar cash outside of Iraq

is likely to have a difficult time physically delivering their old notes to

an Iraqi bank to have them exchanged for new ones. Hope this helps. Mark

Sent from my iPhone=

I really appreciate the response.

Supposing they do have a redenomination how does that work? Haven't other countries done that before. Since the current dinar is currently worth 1/10th of a penny (at an exchange rate of 1 dollar to 1186 IQD. If they were to issue new denoms I would assume those denoms would not be carrying the same inherent exchange rate? That would make the currency worth even less? Wouldn't they have to raise the exchange rate. Because if they come out with a new 1 dinar note. That note at the current exchange rate would be infinitely minor in value. So wouldn't that require on increase in the exchange value?

Regards,

M

to me

The exchange rate would change from 1186 old dinars = US$ 1 to 1.186 new dinars = US$ 1. So if you had 1,186 old dinars originally worth US$ 1, you would turn them in to get 1.186 new dinars, also worth US$ 1. The value of your holding in US$ terms wouldn’t change.

The problem is going to be getting your old dinars to Iraq to exchange them for new ones. And after a year or two has elapsed, they will most likely be demonetized. Then they won’t be worth anything. Since there is no reason at all to expect a big revaluation, this “investment” has plenty of downside and no upside.

to Mark

Isn't that assuming they require you to exchange old for new? Are they able to come right out and pretty much say to speculators that the old dinar would be worthless unless they exchange them? What about other countries that hold dinar. Specifically in electronic form? Maybe I just am wrong there, but I would assume other countries hold some amount of dinar in reserves as payments from Iraq for projects and/or similar things?

Secondly, that would mean the value of the lower denominations would be $1 to 1.186NID. They would not assign that value to old dinar as well?

M

to me

Yes, typically the old currency gets demonetized after a certain period of time. Then it’s worthless. Of course this isn’t a problem for money in bank accounts, which presumably just gets converted automatically in the banks computer systems. But I don’t believe any other countries do hold the dinar as reserves. Payments to Iraq are pretty much all done in US$.

Right. It would be $1 to 1.186 NID. But there’s no way this would be the rate for old dinar as well. I don’t even know if there would be a rate for old dinar. I think you might have to exchange them for new dinar before you could exchange them for dollars.

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Yes they think we are crazy.

Economic science has many theories and few unrefutable rules. Our business and economic leaders go to school and study this science and base their theories on a truly short time frame of history.. The Global market is relatively new to the world and all theories and hypothesis are made by men with maybe 100 years of history of the modern world to study. The dynamics change daily. Truth is it has not been around long enough to explain the consequences and interactions as some type of physical LAW. They are basically making educated decisions ( guessing ) based the short past of the history of Global economics. They will tell you this is the way it is and this is what will happen but new theories, strategies and PLANS are being tryed every day. Some will work as planned and some will fail. There is and will always be a better way!

Edited by SocalDinar
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I agree that this person is making a number of assumptions based on previous happenings in the financial world. I am not an economist but it is curious to me how these educated people say there is NO upside to this at all. A simple mathematics equation will tell you that the dinar is already worth 2 to 3 times what it is valued at in US dollars. The CBI has reserves of over 67 Billion US dollars by the latest reports. If there are 30 trillion dinars in the market then 67 Billion divided by 30 Trillion = .002 per dinar, the current fixed rate is .00086. So if you only count the CBI CASH reserves then the dinar is worth 2.3 times it's current fixed rate. The CBI continues to buy 200 to 300 million dollars of dinar a day but only uses about half or less of that to run the country. So every day dinars are removed from circulation. This can only mean some appreciation in the value of the dinar and some profit for specualtors like us. The big question is just how much. JMO

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apparently this moron doesnt know what the cbi has planned i know for a fact that the dinar will be traded among central banks and shabibi will set the rate and another thing iraq cant even be compared to other countries such as turkey ,etc....The dinar's value was forced down to the value it is now by the u.n. not self imposed so anyone that compares this to other so called redenominations is a friggin idiot! Too many countries have alot invested in iraq for them to turn around and screw them sorry not happening

Keepem, is that you ?

sure sounds like him doesnt it !

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Here's my take:

No Hedge Fund Manager, especially here in the US is going to be "in the know". We sometimes put too much faith in those who sound like they know what they're talking about. That's human.

- All you need to pay attention to is what the CBI is saying. They clearly stated that they are going to introduce the new currency and that the zeroes will be removed from the nominal value and the exchange rate will be raised. Remember, they want the rate to eventually be near or higher than their neighbor's rate aka Kuwait. We just don't know how "gradual" it will be.

- We, on this board, are not the only ones who hold dinar outside of the middle east. If your hedgefund manager thinks that we are going to have "fly" over there to exchange our dinars, he is sadly misinformed. I mean our own government has dinar for crying out loud much like China, Europe, etc.

- You and I both know that don't the rate, but speculate what the rate will be. Yes, we have read articles where they want the dinar to equal the dollar but again, we have to be careful what we read coming from Iraq. Not all information presented to us is factual.

I could go on and on, but I have a meeting to go to! :D

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apparently this moron doesnt know what the cbi has planned i know for a fact that the dinar will be traded among central banks and shabibi will set the rate and another thing iraq cant even be compared to other countries such as turkey ,etc....The dinar's value was forced down to the value it is now by the u.n. not self imposed so anyone that compares this to other so called redenominations is a friggin idiot! Too many countries have alot invested in iraq for them to turn around and screw them sorry not happening

Negged you not necessarily for your opinion but for name calling of someone for their differing opinion on the dinar. IMO most (if not all) hedge fund managers are neither morons nor friggin idiots! The other part of your post that prompted me to neg you was the statement "i know for a fact". Could you enlighten us on how you know this? Again IMO there are very few facts involved in this dinar circus except for the fact that very very few individuals on this earth know what is going to happen and when.

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I agree that this person is making a number of assumptions based on previous happenings in the financial world. I am not an economist but it is curious to me how these educated people say there is NO upside to this at all. A simple mathematics equation will tell you that the dinar is already worth 2 to 3 times what it is valued at in US dollars. The CBI has reserves of over 67 Billion US dollars by the latest reports. If there are 30 trillion dinars in the market then 67 Billion divided by 30 Trillion = .002 per dinar, the current fixed rate is .00086. So if you only count the CBI CASH reserves then the dinar is worth 2.3 times it's current fixed rate. The CBI continues to buy 200 to 300 million dollars of dinar a day but only uses about half or less of that to run the country. So every day dinars are removed from circulation. This can only mean some appreciation in the value of the dinar and some profit for specualtors like us. The big question is just how much. JMO

i agree and if thats the case why would they be sucking in those notes why would they need to? there wouldnt be they know what their gonna do!

Negged you not necessarily for your opinion but for name calling of someone for their differing opinion on the dinar. IMO most (if not all) hedge fund managers are neither morons nor friggin idiots! The other part of your post that prompted me to neg you was the statement "i know for a fact". Could you enlighten us on how you know this? Again IMO there are very few facts involved in this dinar circus except for the fact that very very few individuals on this earth know what is going to happen and when.

kaperoni has described perfectly what the cbi has planned for the dinar he's one of the very few that knows whats going on with this investment and i just dont buy some hedge fund manager knowing whats gonna happen with iraq as this has never happened before if their simply going to come out and give the new notes the higher rate and the people holding the older ones get screwed? really? lol what would be the purpose of bringing in these notes with the auctions then? this guy doesnt know much about iraq and what their plan is period!

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Aren't these two statements enough to know he knows nothing?:

"But I don’t believe any other countries do hold the dinar as reserves...."

"... I don’t even know if there would be a rate for old dinar. I think you might have to exchange them for new dinar before you could exchange them for dollars...."

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Aren't these two statements enough to know he knows nothing?:

"But I don’t believe any other countries do hold the dinar as reserves...."

"... I don’t even know if there would be a rate for old dinar. I think you might have to exchange them for new dinar before you could exchange them for dollars...."

bingo! my thoughts exactly probably sam i am talking or keep em in disguise lol

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bingo! my thoughts exactly probably sam i am talking or keep em in disguise lol

Question is where can anyone verify or show that other countries do indeed hold dinar as reserves. Is there an article, paperwork or anything other then peoples opinions as to verify this fact?

Regards.

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This cracks me up. I have a business associate that is a hedge fund manager. When I told him of my investment in IQD over five years ago his only comment was that he would never personally invest in foreign currency. Fast forward to this year and whenever I ask him about IQD he will not discuss it all but has made the comment to me to "stock up on it, and that 2013 will be a good year."

That being said he has refused to answer any questions regarding the investment.

Just my two cents.

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kaperoni has described perfectly what the cbi has planned for the dinar he's one of the very few that knows whats going on with this investment and i just dont buy some hedge fund manager knowing whats gonna happen with iraq as this has never happened before if their simply going to come out and give the new notes the higher rate and the people holding the older ones get screwed? really? lol what would be the purpose of bringing in these notes with the auctions then? this guy doesnt know much about iraq and what their plan is period!

+ this time rockinrich. While I agree with most of your current post, I still don't believe kaperoni, nor any of the posters of dinar info (affectionately known as gurus) "know for a fact" much about this whole deal. There is one exception, IMHO, and that of course would be Adam who has been always very level headed and believable in his posts....Bout time for Wednesday's chat isn't it?

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I will come back to one very important question in all of this....

Why did the US Treasury come down so hard on Dinarbanker on what and where they could cash in and what their process should be with regards to the individual living in the country or out of the country or if the dinar is owned by a corporation and what documents are required???

You see, these questions raise thoughts in my mind about how the US knows far more about what they plan for the cash out process than we will ever know....until it happens....so any hedge fund manager's opinion is just that...an opinion...unless of course he has been following this as long as I have and has more inside information that tells more than I do.... :peace:

Peace out...

Goldie

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For one thing he is right in saying its a bad investment. Most investors wont touch this investment. They only invest in sure things and avoid bad ones like this witch is smart in there way of thinking. Now us on the other hand invested in something thats not a sure thing so be it . If it pans out we are happy if not we can say nothing ventured nothing gained, we tried. As far as the rest of what he said is Bull dunky. Hes not invested so he don't no his ass from a whole in the ground.Thats my story and I'm sticking to it. :D

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I will come back to one very important question in all of this....

Why did the US Treasury come down so hard on Dinarbanker on what and where they could cash in and what their process should be with regards to the individual living in the country or out of the country or if the dinar is owned by a corporation and what documents are required???

You see, these questions raise thoughts in my mind about how the US knows far more about what they plan for the cash out process than we will ever know....until it happens....so any hedge fund manager's opinion is just that...an opinion...unless of course he has been following this as long as I have and has more inside information that tells more than I do.... :peace:

Peace out...

Goldie

I agree Goldie. I also believe Iraq, CBI is very well aware of speculators outside of Iraq. I also believe CBI and perhaps the US were in on the ground level source for the dinar revolution so to speak. In the realm of possibilities we can only hope the CBI will give us a little pay back from all of the money they made on us in US dollars.

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ya ..all that ... unless iraq comes up with one of those fiat currency plans the imf is passing around ..like the us dollar .. or the euro ... or any of those monetary units ... the more people on this type of plan ..the more it legitimate they seem ...just change the purchasing power without changing its value in the monetary system .. like the dollar ..i guess within your own borders each govt can do as he pleases with the purchasing power ...but the value remains the same in the imf .. so once iraq gets its monetary unit magic starting point ..they can just lie cheat steal .. like the rest of the world ..people in high places are going to make money off this one ..it may just be some kind of gift to their offspring ..50 years down the road .. but its going to make some kind of large gains somewhere.. those rich people already have enough money .. for now .. so they set up the future .. .. they have a plan out there to make a fortune every ten years for the next 100 years .. to ensure their wealth ... every ten years a new plan goes into effect ..they create the future .. and tell us to live day by day .. paycheck to pay check .. some scheme.... huh?.. you will never get that education in any college or university no matter how much you pay.. or what school you attend.....

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In the 60ths France issued a new currency called the new franc, they dropped 2 zeros.

There was the old and new franc.

The new franc was worth 100 old franc.

When a old franc was deposit in the bank it was removed from circulation.

Both new and old franc coexisted from 1960 to 2000 till the Euro came at that time old franc became worthless.

see wikipedia.

If we translate that what could happen, I dont say i will necessary happen,

a new IQD will be issued without the zeros that will be worth 1000 old IQD.

Both could coexist at the same time.

Myself, I dont see that hapening, I should say, I really hope it will not happen.

The main reason is the value of ressources in Iraq.

France had none at the time and their money was based on Silver that wasnt worth much in the 60.

:) is an happy man

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Negged you not necessarily for your opinion but for name calling of someone for their differing opinion on the dinar. IMO most (if not all) hedge fund managers are neither morons nor friggin idiots! The other part of your post that prompted me to neg you was the statement "i know for a fact". Could you enlighten us on how you know this? Again IMO there are very few facts involved in this dinar circus except for the fact that very very few individuals on this earth know what is going to happen and when.

Actually wouldn't surprise me to find a few hedge fund managers that are idiots. Probably a lot of them in the banking world. Just my opinion.

Edited by nugghunter
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I agree that this person is making a number of assumptions based on previous happenings in the financial world. I am not an economist but it is curious to me how these educated people say there is NO upside to this at all. A simple mathematics equation will tell you that the dinar is already worth 2 to 3 times what it is valued at in US dollars. The CBI has reserves of over 67 Billion US dollars by the latest reports. If there are 30 trillion dinars in the market then 67 Billion divided by 30 Trillion = .002 per dinar, the current fixed rate is .00086. So if you only count the CBI CASH reserves then the dinar is worth 2.3 times it's current fixed rate. The CBI continues to buy 200 to 300 million dollars of dinar a day but only uses about half or less of that to run the country. So every day dinars are removed from circulation. This can only mean some appreciation in the value of the dinar and some profit for specualtors like us. The big question is just how much. JMO

30 Trillion is only the currency in circulation.....you are forgetting about the total money supply that is a liability to the CBI.....the total money supply is actually over 70 trillion....

So if you break down the math, the dinar is actually close to being backed 130%......so they do have some wiggle room....but only about 30%.....which would put it around 800 something to 1

Your also incorrect about the auctions and their purpose....it doesnt remove anything from circulation....

bingo! my thoughts exactly probably sam i am talking or keep em in disguise lol

Nope.....

There are many other intelligent individuals that can understand what the CBI is telling the world they are gonna do.....and based off that information, there really isnt a upside to this.....

Only if the CBI is lying to the world on their true intentions....

Edited by keepmwlknfny
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