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It’s Crunch Time, Folks…

fnbplanet
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fnbplanet Apprentice

fnbplanet

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As some of you know, I adhere to a belief that as much as we are all focused on what has to happen before an RV occurs, the leaders of the CBI and Iraqi government MUST be concentrating on what would be happening immediately after an RV. Security, banking, contracts, the ISX, debts/loans, etc are areas that will be subjected to immense pressure should there be a change to the currency. These problems would take time to sort out, and would have to be dealt with before any Arab Summit could take place. I believe to even get a cursory handle on those situations, even with a good plan in hand, would take 1 ½ to 2 weeks - easy.

Several of the presumed “triggers” to an RV are essentially on the clock now - meaning that if they aren’t accomplished soon, will not be done in time to squeak an RV into the month of March. The spots on the calendar that we know of now give us an idea of when things would have to get done if there were to be an RV before the Arab Summit, March 27 - 29th.

Chapter 7 Release:

Maliki is visiting Kuwait on March 14th, presumably to wrap up Kuwait’s blessing for release from Chapter 7. A blessing is not release, and a release would have to come from the UN, and that means all of the players would have to meet and vote. Yes, this could get done in secret behind the scenes, but as of this writing, there is nothing on their schedule. If done, the announcement could be held for announcement at the Summit. If it is needed before an RV, then we look to April for it. My guess is that it isn’t necessary, and won’t happen until June now.

HCL, CBI Law, Ministers sat:

All of these need Parliamentary approval, and the sessions left may be two or three left at most, if there is to be even a week to weather the chaos of an RV before the Summit. Norwuz, the Persian New Year celebrated at the spring equinox, may cause enough members (Kurds mainly, I think) to skip sessions around the 21st of March to slow things even further.

National Meeting:

Even if all of the above, including Article 140 and Peshmerga pay could possibly be done to everyone’s satisfaction at the National Meeting, the hope that it will happen before the Summit fades with every passing hour. Maliki does not seem to want a chance of failure/embarrassment before the Summit, and the List is licking their chops for the chance to do just that very thing. If all was settled behind the scenes this weekend, it would be a possibility, but how much time to handle an RV would be left?

Syria/Iran:

Neither will affect Iraq for at least six weeks, according to my research. Israel won’t move until at least the end of April. When they do, expect a delay in the RV until after the dust settles. Syrian action would come through the UN, and refugees would be the main issue there.

Summary:

It really looks like time is running out for a pre-Summit RV. You all know I’m as Pro-RV as anyone, and look for ways that it CAN happen, but the calendar ain’t lyin’. Yes, it can happen before the 31st, but there would have to be, IMO, a LOT of progress in the next few days (as in, by Thursday, March 15th). I'm not trying to bring anyone down, I am just reminding y'all that the CBI's main focus after an RV is to educate the people so that there is a smooth transition. How fast do you think the learning curve will be in a country in which only 20% even use a bank?

Go RV!

Fnbplanet

P.S. Of course, it can happen at any time, for reasons we may never have even thought of, like the release of the budget. Believe what you’ve researched.

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amhvl Newbie

amhvl

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FNB...your efforts are evident and you analysis is sensible. Both are appreciated. In as much as the “known knowns’” keep us grounded, I have begun to make room for the possibility of the “unknown knowns” or an anytime scenario based on both the magnitude of the event and the lack of credible news that seems to have been fed to us lately. The few who are (truly) in the know are rarely tipping their hands and much appears to be going on behind the scenes. Speaking for myself, I admit to having trouble seeing through the fog. Again…great analysis. +1

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fnbplanet Apprentice

fnbplanet

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FNB...your efforts are evident and you analysis is sensible. Both are appreciated. In as much as the “known knowns’” keep us grounded, I have begun to make room for the possibility of the “unknown knowns” or an anytime scenario based on both the magnitude of the event and the lack of credible news that seems to have been fed to us lately. The few who are (truly) in the know are rarely tipping their hands and much appears to be going on behind the scenes. Speaking for myself, I admit to having trouble seeing through the fog. Again…great analysis. +1

After listening to the lopsters, I, somewhere inside, believe that this RV thing will go beyond what "makes sense", that there may be a master plan to reboot the global economies without following history, or the "rules". If so, there would have to be a major shift in just who the world powers will be. I still think that today's major players would have a role, but that there would emerge a "second world" (as opposed to third world) class of global powers, claiming a greater share of the decision making and morality imposition. I'm not a big fan of socialism, communism, marxism, or sharia law, so I'm probably going to have some issues.

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amhvl Newbie

amhvl

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After listening to the lopsters, I, somewhere inside, believe that this RV thing will go beyond what "makes sense", that there may be a master plan to reboot the global economies without following history, or the "rules". If so, there would have to be a major shift in just who the world powers will be. I still think that today's major players would have a role, but that there would emerge a "second world" (as opposed to third world) class of global powers, claiming a greater share of the decision making and morality imposition. I'm not a big fan of socialism, communism, marxism, or sharia law, so I'm probably going to have some issues.

In other words, anything can happen, and whatever does happen is completely out of our control. So we wait...

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bamagirl Newbie

bamagirl

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FNB...your efforts are evident and you analysis is sensible. Both are appreciated. In as much as the “known knowns’” keep us grounded, I have begun to make room for the possibility of the “unknown knowns” or an anytime scenario based on both the magnitude of the event and the lack of credible news that seems to have been fed to us lately. The few who are (truly) in the know are rarely tipping their hands and much appears to be going on behind the scenes. Speaking for myself, I admit to having trouble seeing through the fog. Again…great analysis. +1

We are still on the same wavelength it looks like, couldn't agree with you more...

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fastarnie Newbie

fastarnie

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fnb,

I agree. I tend to say this a lot when reading your posts. I agree with this post, because an article I read about Iraq asking for debt forgiveness at the summit. For them to revalue before summit and then ask for debt forgiveness (to me) doesn't make sense. Plus everything else on their plate you have already mentioned. Even if the miracle happened and they fixed everything they're working on I don't see them rv'ing their dinar before the summit for that one reason. I could be wrong. It just doesn't make sense to me I guess. Keep rockin I enjoy your posts. :)

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RodandStaff Rookie

RodandStaff

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FNB... thanks for the input.. the only thing I can add to that is we don't know the unknown..... and no one really knows what's going on behind those big ol' mahogany doors at the parliament... or whats already been done! unsure.gif It's all S.W.A.G. (Some Wild Arssed Guess). eyebrows.gif It's good to stay grounded though... we don't want nobody floating away now do we? rolleyes.giflaugh.gif

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fnbplanet Apprentice

fnbplanet

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I think that we should be watching three other issues in the middle east at this time. Syria, which will be a source of refugees over the border. Iran, with Imadinnerjacket shooting off at the mouth, has lost some power to the even nuttier clerics, and things could get worse. I don't see a strike from Israel before May. Lastly, our old buddy Darth Sadr, who is stirring up the Shiite population over Bahrain's issues. Bahrain has a Sunni leadership and Shiite majority populace. Look for him to cause trouble at the Arab Summit via protests because their leader is attending, and Assad from Syria didn't get an invite. Remember when looking at the news, to expand out at least two countries in any direction regarding politics or economy.

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fnbplanet Apprentice

fnbplanet

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Coincide with the summit of Arab Parliament disrupts the 40-day

On: Friday 03/09/2012 20:04

Baghdad _ Fares Sharifi Sources in the Iraqi Council of Representatives to break the legislative will coincide with the Arab summit in Baghdad at the end of this month. The sources said in an interview (the citizen) that "the holiday Legislative Council of Representatives will begin on the twentieth of March, the current and last for 40 days." She said, "This holiday will be in conjunction with the Arab summit in Baghdad at the end of this month and there are important laws may recognize the next few days for the approach of the holiday, especially the General Amnesty Law," The House of Representatives held on Thursday, its the (27) of Chapter the second legislative year of the second legislative chaired by the President of parliament and the presence of Osama al (238) out of 325 deputies from the Council is made ​​up of them.

Less time than I thought.........

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George Hayduke Rookie

George Hayduke

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After listening to the lopsters, I, somewhere inside, believe that this RV thing will go beyond what "makes sense", that there may be a master plan to reboot the global economies without following history, or the "rules". If so, there would have to be a major shift in just who the world powers will be. I still think that today's major players would have a role, but that there would emerge a "second world" (as opposed to third world) class of global powers, claiming a greater share of the decision making and morality imposition. I'm not a big fan of socialism, communism, marxism, or sharia law, so I'm probably going to have some issues.

Same here bro, I truly believe the 'Shift' is in play and picking up speed. Gonna be a new decade, get ready for a new clothing trend to reflect the 'nouveaux et puissants riches', or should I say, جديدة غنية وقوية'...'

GH

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