Shabibi in DC 4-19-2011 Video

[Elixirbaby]

Shabibi

There are 4 part videos of Dr. Shabibi from 4-19-2011on youtube. You can look up the rest if you would like.In the one I linked here, there's a question asked in the begining of the video of Dr. Shabibi about an revaluation. The one thing that has always stayed in my mind is his response. "If there was going to a revaluation I can't you". He could have said there will be no need for a revaluation but that's not what he said.

Tried to insert the player here, can't seem to get it to work. Maybe one of the mods can help. Thanks

[Hawaii 50]

Shabibi

There are 4 part videos of Dr. Shabibi from 4-19-2011on youtube. You can look up the rest if you would like.In the one I linked here, there's a question asked in the begining of the video of Dr. Shabibi about an revaluation. The one thing that has always stayed in my mind is his response. "If there was going to a revaluation I can't you". He could have said there will be no need for a revaluation but that's not what he said.

Tried to insert the player here, can't seem to get it to work. Maybe one of the mods can help. Thanks

What did you try to say " If there was going to a revaluation I can't you?" I don't understand what you wanted to tell us.

[Elixirbaby]

What did you try to say " If there was going to a revaluation I can't you?" I don't understand what you wanted to tell us.

Sorry. Was typing to fast and did not proofread my work. After a reported asked about the revaluation of the dinar Shabibi said," Even If I new the answer I could not tell you"

[Canuklady]

Thanks Elixirbaby! That quote has been on my mind since I initially heard it. Love that quote!

[MrDinarman]

John: With respect to the ongoing need for stability in Iraq and its exchange rate, would it not follow that there's a direct need for a potential revaluation of the currency to induce both foreign and domestic investment in iraq and with regard to that, how far do you believe that we are from a potential revaluation of the Iraqi currency?

Thank you very much for this question, and even if I know the answer I can not tell you. (audience laughs) Well the thing is, no I think the questions all you can not have an economist saying without the answer, depends, you know? So the question is actually is the revaluation will uh which is really going to depend on on on to what extent we are going to continue you uhhh let us say controlling inflation. As you know, i don't know if you go to the cbi website, you will see the first objective is maintaining price stability, so uh there is a little bit of inflation in Iraq. I mean its now, it used to be 2%or 3%, now its about 5%. We are watching that very carefully. uhhhh If this inflation continues we'll have to revisit, more revisit, more than revisit and, I can not say. We're going to revisit the question of exchange rates, because I mean, uhhh revaluation, I mean based on inflation of course. I mean you know uh uhhh the other factors that determine the movements in currencies are, look sometimes we look at trade imports and exports, all your obligations and then the balance of payments and all these things definitely no doubt we look at those, but uh uh those are problems relating more with uh with uh the development part of the economy. The question of maintaining price stability is really something you see inflation and all things because no one else in the economy is concerned with inflation. I mean the government put its budget, uhh, I mean the government is the spender, the central bank is the saver. So the, its not very important for them to concentrate on inflation, so actually the question here that we are going to track and follow the development of inflation first and of course other factors as I mentioned. Second, and then we'll determine our exchange rate movement.

Bob: Thank you governor. This may be the same question so I can understand if you can't answer it but I've heard a report that in the last couple of days that iraq is about to cut 3 zeroes off of the currency and that they call this redomination. This may be the same question that you just received, but I wondered if you had any information about that?

Shabibi: Well, I mean I don't know whether its the same question. I think this cutting of the 3 zeroes is uhhh umm uhh has of course, shouldn't be exaggerated is the problem. I mean the question is just redomination and uhh um people, of course you see there are a lot of people that are uhhh writing a lot of articles in the newspapers, I mean criticizing the central bank that its going to the the value of the iraqi dinar is going to depreciate or something. All kinds of talk. I mean this is a question just actually facilitate payment facilitate actually ease of counting and all these things and of course now when you see now a lot of figures, I mean you see trillions, huge figures, I mean if you want to be precise you put about 12 figures or 15 figures on all these things um 15 digits or something. So I think, I think we have a plan on that. And uhhh you remember uhh why the there was not actually a government decree to add these zeroes. They happened actually because of the course of movement of the economy at the beginning of the 80's. I mean just inflation was very high, inflation was rampant and therefore I mean small notes and these things were actually not said not to be used on these things. So uhhh uhhh uhhh government started to add the 3 zeroes and these things and at the time and of course uuhhhhhhhhh conditions are different now. Inflation under control, exchange rate is managed by the central bank all these things. When you have actually the zeroes you could not manage, not of course of the fault of the government or the central bank, which I think there was, but I think the question is that because there was a lot of exigent factors. We're not saying we are champions now, I mean there were actually a lot of external factors which affected actually the behavior of all stake holders and therefore actually a lot of people didnt know actually what to do. They started to add 3 zeroes and all these things, so now actually the situation is completely different from that time. You had the high inflation, you have now a low inflation. You had actually something which is stable, macronomics situation, I mean at the time was actually not stable. So uhhhh the only way to combat all of these things at the time is to increase the denomination and put 3 zeroes. I think, I think uh to bring back uh the Iraqi Dinar where actually the 3 zeroes are removed, and of course you have to this, will have gone hand in hand with monitoring of the exchange rate and all these things. And and and and we'll see. I think now it is uh it is it is probably uhh I mean we are, we are studying that, not studying. We haven't decided actually on that but when but when to implement removal of 3 zeroes is very soon. But of course this requires not only the central bank activity, this requires because I mean its something you have to make a lot of propagand(a) uhhhh a lot of uh uh uh uhh advertisement campaign and all these things. And you have of course to go probably some a campaign to to to uhh educate a lot of people on these things. So I think, I think it needs a lot of help from the government, from many people in the government, especially the security forces, and we hope that security becomes less busy with the violence issue so they can devote time for us.

[Papster]

thanks for the blast from the past Elixirbaby...........Soon.........we hope.........thanks..........GO DINAR

[Elixirbaby]

Thanks Mrdinarman for the transcript. That was awesome.

Go RV

[Elixirbaby]

Was that an admission, or was his Freudian slip showing?

That was my point with his "if I new the answer I couldn't tell you" comment. I think shabibi is an honest man and when caught off guard he can't lie so he makes a joke about it. If revaluation was not the direction they are going in then he could have said there will no revaluation but we will redominate.

[Elixirbaby]

I agree with you. I think Dr. Shabibi is an honest man, although I am sure he understands the necessity, in this case, to foment disinformation. It's the nature of the beast.

Agreed

[hame55]

John: With respect to the ongoing need for stability in Iraq and its exchange rate, would it not follow that there's a direct need for a potential revaluation of the currency to induce both foreign and domestic investment in iraq and with regard to that, how far do you believe that we are from a potential revaluation of the Iraqi currency?

Thank you very much for this question, and even if I know the answer I can not tell you. (audience laughs) Well the thing is, no I think the questions all you can not have an economist saying without the answer, depends, you know? So the question is actually is the revaluation will uh which is really going to depend on on on to what extent we are going to continue you uhhh let us say controlling inflation. As you know, i don't know if you go to the cbi website, you will see the first objective is maintaining price stability, so uh there is a little bit of inflation in Iraq. I mean its now, it used to be 2%or 3%, now its about 5%. We are watching that very carefully. uhhhh If this inflation continues we'll have to revisit, more revisit, more than revisit and, I can not say. We're going to revisit the question of exchange rates, because I mean, uhhh revaluation, I mean based on inflation of course. I mean you know uh uhhh the other factors that determine the movements in currencies are, look sometimes we look at trade imports and exports, all your obligations and then the balance of payments and all these things definitely no doubt we look at those, but uh uh those are problems relating more with uh with uh the development part of the economy. The question of maintaining price stability is really something you see inflation and all things because no one else in the economy is concerned with inflation. I mean the government put its budget, uhh, I mean the government is the spender, the central bank is the saver. So the, its not very important for them to concentrate on inflation, so actually the question here that we are going to track and follow the development of inflation first and of course other factors as I mentioned. Second, and then we'll determine our exchange rate movement.

Bob: Thank you governor. This may be the same question so I can understand if you can't answer it but I've heard a report that in the last couple of days that iraq is about to cut 3 zeroes off of the currency and that they call this redomination. This may be the same question that you just received, but I wondered if you had any information about that?

Shabibi: Well, I mean I don't know whether its the same question. I think this cutting of the 3 zeroes is uhhh umm uhh has of course, shouldn't be exaggerated is the problem. I mean the question is just redomination and uhh um people, of course you see there are a lot of people that are uhhh writing a lot of articles in the newspapers, I mean criticizing the central bank that its going to the the value of the iraqi dinar is going to depreciate or something. All kinds of talk. I mean this is a question just actually facilitate payment facilitate actually ease of counting and all these things and of course now when you see now a lot of figures, I mean you see trillions, huge figures, I mean if you want to be precise you put about 12 figures or 15 figures on all these things um 15 digits or something. So I think, I think we have a plan on that. And uhhh you remember uhh why the there was not actually a government decree to add these zeroes. They happened actually because of the course of movement of the economy at the beginning of the 80's. I mean just inflation was very high, inflation was rampant and therefore I mean small notes and these things were actually not said not to be used on these things. So uhhh uhhh uhhh government started to add the 3 zeroes and these things and at the time and of course uuhhhhhhhhh conditions are different now. Inflation under control, exchange rate is managed by the central bank all these things. When you have actually the zeroes you could not manage, not of course of the fault of the government or the central bank, which I think there was, but I think the question is that because there was a lot of exigent factors. We're not saying we are champions now, I mean there were actually a lot of external factors which affected actually the behavior of all stake holders and therefore actually a lot of people didnt know actually what to do. They started to add 3 zeroes and all these things, so now actually the situation is completely different from that time. You had the high inflation, you have now a low inflation. You had actually something which is stable, macronomics situation, I mean at the time was actually not stable. So uhhhh the only way to combat all of these things at the time is to increase the denomination and put 3 zeroes. I think, I think uh to bring back uh the Iraqi Dinar where actually the 3 zeroes are removed, and of course you have to this, will have gone hand in hand with monitoring of the exchange rate and all these things. And and and and we'll see. I think now it is uh it is it is probably uhh I mean we are, we are studying that, not studying. We haven't decided actually on that but when but when to implement removal of 3 zeroes is very soon. But of course this requires not only the central bank activity, this requires because I mean its something you have to make a lot of propagand(a) uhhhh a lot of uh uh uh uhh advertisement campaign and all these things. And you have of course to go probably some a campaign to to to uhh educate a lot of people on these things. So I think, I think it needs a lot of help from the government, from many people in the government, especially the security forces, and we hope that security becomes less busy with the violence issue so they can devote time for us.

THANX Mr Dinarman....

As an English professor, political science major, and longtime consumer and decipher-er of political propaganda, I see the high points in this speech as such:

Second question: Shabs is saying this is the same question as the first - and the answer is the same as the first. It seems, in tone and intention, that he is masking a revaluation, not a redenomination. If he were totally in the RD camp, there would be no need for a "propaganda" or "advertising" campaign of these proportions. They would simply say, there is going to be a redenomination, knock off the zeros of inflation, make it equal to the dollar, and move on with raising the rate on par with, say Kuwait, which would only be about 400%. In fact they could have done the RD already and rid themselves of past hyper-inflation of the 80s that way, without all this hoopla over currency over the past few years. They just would have done it.

They may do that yet, but it is not how this speech sounds....it sounds like the usual political dance, when a spokesperson would LIKE to say one thing, but must hedge and dance around the real truth. It is almost as if Shabs is saying, "I know we are playing here. You know what's up, but I won't tell you directly...but I know that you know..." We all know the game. Happens all the time.

Phrases I am analyzing are in BOLD above

Phrases indicating an RV are: "propaganda" vs. "educating the people" - Shabs is a good speaker of English. I don't think he is translating directly from Iraqi Arabic. I think he knows the meaning of such expressions and other iodiomatic English expressions. I think it's a clue. He was educated in the West, no? Propaganda means a deliberate misinformation campaign for unspoken intentions. (Hitler was good at it)

Also the phrase "increase the denomination" - this is a slip up in my opinion. An RD is not an increase, it is a decrease of the nominal value of notes in order to "delete the zeros" and get rid of past hyper inflation. His mind says "increase" because that's what is on his mind, and being an old man, he slips and says it. But an RD is a decrease, not as Keep likes to say, "a revenue-neutral event." He is an old man, and cannot dance (lie) as well as some politicians. Shabs is more an economist than a professional liar, like Maliki, for instance...LOL.

"go hand in hand with monitoring the exchange rate" and "bring back the dinar" ---These are phrases that could be argued as an LOP if delivered alone. You could RD to par with dollar, and then have a small RV of 400% to reach a $4 IQD, but given the rest of the speech, I think he's arguing for an RV. The context of certain phrases like "lifting" "raising" "increasing" and "bringing back the dinar" all point toward increasing purchasing power, not taking it away.

Just my humble opinion.

[Elixirbaby]

THANX Mr Dinarman....

As an English professor, political science major, and longtime consumer and decipher-er of political propaganda, I see the high points in this speech as such:

Second question: Shabs is saying this is the same question as the first - and the answer is the same as the first. It seems, in tone and intention, that he is masking a revaluation, not a redenomination. If he were totally in the RD camp, there would be no need for a "propaganda" or "advertising" campaign of these proportions. They would simply say, there is going to be a redenomination, knock off the zeros of inflation, make it equal to the dollar, and move on with raising the rate on par with, say Kuwait, which would only be about 400%. In fact they could have done the RD already and rid themselves of past hyper-inflation of the 80s that way, without all this hoopla over currency over the past few years. They just would have done it.

They may do that yet, but it is not how this speech sounds....it sounds like the usual political dance, when a spokesperson would LIKE to say one thing, but must hedge and dance around the real truth. It is almost as if Shabs is saying, "I know we are playing here. You know what's up, but I won't tell you directly...but I know that you know..." We all know the game. Happens all the time.

Phrases I am analyzing are in BOLD above

Phrases indicating an RV are: "propaganda" vs. "educating the people" - Shabs is a good speaker of English. I don't think he is translating directly from Iraqi Arabic. I think he knows the meaning of such expressions and other iodiomatic English expressions. I think it's a clue. He was educated in the West, no? Propaganda means a deliberate misinformation campaign for unspoken intentions. (Hitler was good at it)

Also the phrase "increase the denomination" - this is a slip up in my opinion. An RD is not an increase, it is a decrease of the nominal value of notes in order to "delete the zeros" and get rid of past hyper inflation. His mind says "increase" because that's what is on his mind, and being an old man, he slips and says it. But an RD is a decrease, not as Keep likes to say, "a revenue-neutral event." He is an old man, and cannot dance (lie) as well as some politicians. Shabs is more an economist than a professional liar, like Maliki, for instance...LOL.

"go hand in hand with monitoring the exchange rate" and "bring back the dinar" ---These are phrases that could be argued as an LOP if delivered alone. You could RD to par with dollar, and then have a small RV of 400% to reach a $4 IQD, but given the rest of the speech, I think he's arguing for an RV. The context of certain phrases like "lifting" "raising" "increasing" and "bringing back the dinar" all point toward increasing purchasing power, not taking it away.

Just my humble opinion.

Thanks hame. That's been my same feeling since I've seen the video. Side note, my dad used to live in Asheville . Loved it.

Go RV

[Carrello]

Elixir, thank you. This is a good reminder right now. Dinarman, thank you for your effort. This is good stuff to bring us back to center.

[hame55]

Thanks hame. That's been my same feeling since I've seen the video. Side note, my dad used to live in Asheville . Loved it.

Go RV

Elixir---

I have always enjoyed your considered and evenhanded opinions. Thanks for the comment. I just feel the overall intention behind the words leads us to Rv not RD. That's all. And if we are to glean our clues from hard news, what better source than Shabs?

[Carrello]

Elixir, thank you. This is a good reminder right now. Dinarman, thank you for your effort. This is good stuff to bring us back to center.

And Hame. Thank you for the breakdown. It is great to a professional analyze the interview.

ps English professor - hmmm - you must cringe around here.

[hame55]

And Hame. Thank you for the breakdown. It is great to a professional analyze the interview.

ps English professor - hmmm - you must cringe around here.

I have learned,after some trouble, to be accepting of a living language, as well as those with reading/spelling disabilities.It's a big world.

[Elixirbaby]

I have learned,after some trouble, to be accepting of a living language, as well as those with reading/spelling disabilities.It's a big world.

I'm guilty.

[precious1]

I really appreciate the efforts of all the Dinar family bringing the articles but jusst as importantlly, being able to analyze and strip the words down into nice bite size pieces! Thanks Hame, Dinarman and Elixirbaby! Y'll ROCK!

[Sanssouci]

Just my humble opinion.

I share your humble opinion, and I salute Mr. Dinarman.

[DetroittoAZ]

Thanks Elixir and Hame, I've watched this video many times and believe that this is a RV coming are way. Hopefully we get the RV but if not at least we are in the game!!!!

[yota691]

Here it is Stryker

[Stryker365]

Here it is Stryker

No yota, it was just posted two days ago, I'll go back and look, you just made me think that I have the date, so I'll us it to find where it is.

Thanks tho!!

[JUNKANOO]

Sorry. Was typing to fast and did not proofread my work. After a reported asked about the revaluation of the dinar Shabibi said," Even If I new the answer I could not tell you"

good reminder...GO Shabibi - GO RV!

[bubbie]

he also said ... shabibi ' revaluation depends on inflation '' and an oldie but a goodie '' inflation will not go above 5% in 2012''

[JWJW11]

That was my point with his "if I new the answer I couldn't tell you" comment. I think shabibi is an honest man and when caught off guard he can't lie so he makes a joke about it. If revaluation was not the direction they are going in then he could have said there will no revaluation but we will redominate.

Exactly....ANDDDD....he seemed to be pretty concerned about getting lower denoms out as soon as he could as well......think about that huh!!! This is good stuff! Anyone who has any doubts or questions about this thing should just read this over and over and over.....its very telling if you think about it!

[Carrello]

Sorry. Was typing to fast and did not proofread my work. After a reported asked about the revaluation of the dinar Shabibi said," Even If I new the answer I could not tell you"

Thanks for the post Elixir. Dr. Shabibi's words are a great reminder.

Edited February 24, 2012 by Carrello