The Web’s Only RV-O-Meter

[babyorca]

The web’s only RV-O-Meter will gauge the progress of the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar as news, information, and intel is made available

As of April 9, 2011 the RV-O-Meter remains at a high-grade warning to “Prepare for Cash In”

The web’ s first and only RV-O-Meter will remain at a weighted confidence level of 99%; The highest recorded level ever on the RV-O-Meter to date.

The RV-O-Meter is adjusted based on positive or negative significant events, achievements, and confidence levels.

Since the last RV-O-Meter Update the Iraqi parliament has made minimal progress toward any of the outstanding issues since its passage of the 2011 Budget in February.

Iraq Government News

This week we did see Maliki submit the name of Abdul Nabi and consequently parliament voted him as Minister of Planning.

Iraq Parliament votes unanimously for Ali Shukri Yusuf Abdul-Nabi as Ministry of Planning

The GOI still needs to seat critical security minister seats in Defense and Interior/National Security. PM Maliki presented these names on March 28th however the candidate Maliki pushed through as Minister of Defense was not the consensus candidate for the Iraqi List Coalition. The Iraqi List is entitled to the Defense Ministry and as such the Iraqi List candidate names has been resubmitted to the Prime Minister. The National Alliance is entitled to National Security/Interior Minister and this candidate has been named as well last week. Currently these candidates are undergoing resume and integrity checks prior to a parliamentary vote. News would suggest a vote could be seen as early as the week of April 12th.

Allawi’s Iraqi Coalition discloses the names of candidates for the position of Secretary of Defense

Maliki Press Release: Names of candidates for interior, defense and planning have been presented

Iraq’s Prime Minister is feeling outside pressure this week from the United States as well as the United Nations. Vice President Joe Biden called the PM inquiring about the progress of filling the vacant ministries while US Defense Secretary Bob Gates visited Iraq in efforts to advise the PM in the filling of security ministers. The UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon wrote a letter to the Prime Minister urging Iraq to fill its government.

Secretary of Defense Gates apparently pressed PM Maliki on the need to fulfill Iraqs obligations as well as his the PMs

READ: US Defense Secretary rebukes Maliki for inaction

Maliki Press Release: PM Maliki receives call from VP Biden

Sec. Gates in Baghdad for talks with Iraqi officials

Secretary-General urges Iraqi leaders to finish forming new Government

As of this update we are now 40 days into Maliki’s 100 day plan and minimal action has taken place to help the Iraqi people. Albeit a lot of lip service but nothing significant which will lead to improvements in water, sewer, and power. The new Minister of Planning did announce a plan to increase employment in Iraq. But again..nothing significant.

Iraq-Kuwait Relations

Perhaps the most significant news coming from Iraq is the development of Iraq-Kuwait relations. On December 15, 2010 Iraq was released from majority of UN Chapter VII sanctions however those pertaining to Kuwait (Resolution 678) remain intact. Primary points of contention include demarcation of the Iraq-Kuwait border (land and sea), the search and discover of lost antiquities and artifacts which were taken during Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the search and discovery of missing bodies (graves) Kuwaiti’s which also occurred during the Iraqi invasion and Iraq’s ultimate release from Chapter VII sanctions.

The committee met over the weekend beginning March 28th in what appeared to be a successful meeting. 12 important points only described as the bulk of the outstanding issues were settled between the two countries.

Iraq owes Kuwait $52 billion in reparations (not included as part of Chapter VII sanctions per FM Zebari on March 29th); as of April 1st 2011 Iraq has paid $32 billion or more than half owed. Leading up to the March committee meeting Foreign Minister Zebari announced Iraq it would pay the remaining $21 billion +/- in reparations owed to Kuwait. Furthermore, there is a tentative 5 year agreement between the two countries to search and discover missing persons and artifacts.

This is a significant achievement towards ending the Chapter VII sanctions entirely against Iraq.

This week the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon spoke on the Iraq-Kuwait issue by stating Iraq must meet its obligations to Kuwait in order to be released from Chapter VII sanctions and be restored to full international status. In another news report the UN Secretary General reiterated the UNSC’s December 15th demands for the Iraq Prime Minister to submit a written letter of commitment to Kuwait more or less stating Iraq would abide and uphold its promises to Kuwait. This letter is then to be presented to Iraqi parliament member to be submitted as legislation. Ban Ki Moon stated this letter has yet to be received by the United Nations and it is possible it will be received in a formal meeting in the future.

Over the past few weeks news agencies from Iraq and Kuwait have been actively reporting on the relations of these two countries and Chapter VII sanctions. Considering the sense of urgency or push it would appear these two countries are seeking a resolution in the very near future.

Kuwait has stated it was time Iraq emerged from Chapter VII as it has worked hard to meet its obligations to the world and has redeemed itself from the regime of the Saddam era.

It is my opinion we will soon witness landmark negotiations and decisions which will eventually release Iraq from Chapter VII sanctions in its entirety.

During the April 8th UNAMI meeting included Iraq UN representative Ed Melkert providing a written speech in saying Iraq demonstrates a promising future and will soon return to international status.

UN Rep Melkert: Confident Iraq Reaffirmation of Land, Maritime Boundaries within reach

UN: Second report of the Secretary-General pursuant to paragraph 6 of resolution 1936 (2010)

UN Sec General says Iraq must commit in writing

UN requires that Iraq meet its obligations to Kuwait to restore the international status

Iraq-Kuwait Committee approves 12 articles of suspended dossiers

Joint committee to discuss issues between Iraq and Kuwait

Kuwait-Iraq cmte working on outstanding issues

FM Zebari says Iraq would pay the remaining $21 billion in reparations; moves to settle Chapter

Cabinet to launch Kuwait/Iraq proposal; 5yr plan to resolve outstanding issue

The Oil and Gas Law (HCL) was recently reported as being prepared to present the vote to parliament. This week it was announced Kurdistan and the GOI reached an agreement on oil revenue shares and lawmakers are hopeful the draft law will be amended in the coming weeks.

Kurdistan and Baghdad will reach an agreement on Oil Revenues

Iraqi parliament discusses oil law soon (HCL)

Oil and gas law since 2007 is included on the agenda of the House of Representatives

Shara: Oil and gas law to be presented to parliament in two weeks

The Arab Summit was announced April 6th the summit will be held in Baghdad May 11th, 2011.

23rd Annual Arab Summit to be held May 11th in Baghdad

World Trade Organization

This week it was announced by the National Committee for Iraq’s accession to the WTO that Iraq has met its obligations to become a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This is an Iraqi committee which has worked hard to achieve the requirement necessary for Iraq to become a full member of the WTO. Iraq is currently a non-participating member.

The committee also advises the Government of Iraq and its parliament as to measures necessary to ascend as a full member. Such issues included amending the tariff law.

The subsequent article states the WTO has asked Iraq to work toward its development in the private sector (manufacturing, agricultural, etc) so as to compete equally with other WTO members once a full member. According to the statement provided by the committee member, Iraq is set for full membership but it must improve its private sector for future trade prior to becoming a member and “Iraq will work on the development of productive sectors before joining the organization”

Iraq has been working diligently on its private sector development over the past 6 to 12 months.

The United States is working directly with Iraq (according to this article and others) in order to ease Iraq into WTO full member status.

On April 7th the WTO conducted an event titled “Introduction Days”. This is an annual event which welcomes new delegates from WTO member countries and provides instruction on certain practices and procedures customary of the WTO. – As anticipated it would appear nothing Iraq related evolved from this meeting.

Iraq meets the requirements for membership in the WTO

WTO Introduction Day; April 7th

Iraq Trade Ministry: Iraq’s WTO ascension; Asking for US support over next few days

Dabbagh: Council of Ministers approves draft law on customs tariff

Development Fund of Iraq (DFI)

The DFI was established pursuant to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1483 and holds the proceeds of petroleum export sales from Iraq, as well as remaining balances from the UN Oil-for-Food Program and other frozen Iraqi funds.

On June 30th, 2011 the protection of the DFI assets will end for Iraq as agreed upon in the UNSC meeting December 15, 2010 (Resolution 1956). Since the UNSC meeting Iraq Finance Minister and the CBI has worked towards resolving those outstanding debts currently owed by Iraq.

The Iraqi assets (cash, foreign currency reserves, gold, investments, etc) which are deposited abroad and/or in Iraq can be garnished or attached by those outstanding debts not resolved. This week Iraq and the IMF has agreed to work together in forming a mechanism to shield debts from reducing national assets. These assets among other factors help support the value of the IQD.

The United Nations Security Council is expecting a full written report by Iraq on its exit strategy from DFI protection. It is unknown if this May 1st date is a formal meeting among UNSC members or only a submission of letter.

CBI: Iraq will use the IMF to end the file of commercial debt

CBI: Iraq Settles $21B In Saddam-Era Commercial Debt

CBI: Iraq has reduced its debt to 80% over seven years; Will be one of the least indebted countries in the world

CBI: Iraq has succeeded in providing cover for foreign currency; Iraq is following steps in the economic advancement of the World as part of the global economy

Central Bank of Iraq

On March 29th the CBI announced to the IMF that it remains independent from the Prime Ministers authority despite efforts by Maliki to include the CBI under the umbrella of his governance.

On March 31st the IMF Country report was released which provided detail as to the monetary status Iraq and its CBI has achieved. On pages 41-42 of the report a list of 26 objectives required of Iraq is presented. According to the IMF Country report 7 have been met, 3 have been largely met, 4 are partially met, 4 are underway, 2 are not met, and 6 are left blank. Those objective which are underway and yet to be met mainly deal with the banking sector which CBI audits – a topic that has been heavily discussed in recent weeks in the news. All but 8 of the 26 objectives are not met or left black; The bulk of which must be achieved by June 30, 2011.

On page 39 of the IMF Country report an excerpt regarding Article VIII is quoted as follows:

14. Progress has been made in moving toward accepting the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2(a), 3, and 4, of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement. We have worked with IMF staff to complete the review of exchange laws and regulations and are considering measures to remove the identified exchange restrictions on current international transactions. We remain committed to avoid imposing any restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions or introducing any multiple currency practices.

Under IMF Article VIII, Sections 2, 3 and 4, IMF members undertake not to impose restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, and not to engage in, or permit any of their fiscal agencies to engage in, any discriminatory currency arrangement or multiple currency practice, except with IMF approval.

IMF Article VIII obliges Iraq to adhere to IMF policies and therefore opens its currency and banking for international transactions.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/aa/aa08.htm

Iraq continues to see rising inflationary pressures as it maintains an exchange rate of about 1170 to $1 USD. The latest figures show Iraq’s February core inflation at about 5.5%. For comparison purposes, the United States core inflation rate for February 2011 was 2.1%.

CBI advisor Saleh stated the Iraq will continue to see inflation rise if the country depends itself upon oil exports alone. Reuters reported in March that global food prices have increase 8 months in a row and is up 2.2% from January 2011 to February 2011.

The increase in global food prices not only effect grocery stores and markets where you live but also those who reside in Iraq. If you couple a 5.5% inflationary rate, a 2.2% rise in global food prices, high national unemployment reportedly between 15% to 23%, and a national poverty rate of about 20% the economy becomes somewhat fragile regardless of how stable the IMF reports the current exchange rate. Inflationary pressures will eventually bring Shabibi to make decision regarding the IQD and the CBI monetary policy.

Cash in small denominations and minds of the public servants

High rate of inflation in Iraq

CBI: Core inflation rises to 5.5% in February

Iraq-Business News: CBI Forecasts More Iraqi Inflation

Iraq economist calls for GOI to deal with inflation; Demanding quick procedures such as deleting the zeros of the local currency

Iraq to IMF: Central bank stays independent

IMF Country Report – Iraq

Violence Report

A time frame from late November to late January allowed Iraq to enjoy relatively low acts of violence however as political demonstrations in the Arab region increased so did security concerns in Iraq. Violent attacks increased nearly 20% from February to March of this year.

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/04/06/weekly-security-update-for-6th-april-2011/

RV-O-Meter Summary

Considering the overall conditions in Iraq and the continued political stall the RV-O-Meter remains at 99%.

Key factors such as seating of the entire Maliki cabinet and release from Chapter VII will reflect major strides in the RV progress as well upward movement in the RV-O-Meter.

The Timeline

Key elements which remain include (completion of all or part of this list could result in the RV):

•Seating a complete government

•Vote on investment law

•Transition to free trade (global) market economy /Article VIII

•Vote on oil and gas law (HCL)

•Kuwait/Iraq resolve outstanding issues

•Release from UNSC Chapter VII

•DFI Exit Strategy

•Becoming a full member of the WTO (ascension)

Conclusion

In the past few weeks we have all been witness to encouraging news coming out of Iraq. Just since April 1st some key headlines would make someone wonder what is brewing??

•Exit from the neck of the economy

•UN Sec General calls on Iraq to make concrete progress in its commitments to the remainder of Chapter VII terms

•Zebari, in London, looking out the requirements of Iraq from Chapter VII

•An economic seminar in Baghdad to discuss the possibility of entering Iraq in the WTO

•Source: Iraq is seeking to emerge from Chapter VII for the extension of U.S. troops

•Iraq meets the requirements for membership in the WTO

•Iraq Parliament votes unanimously for Ali Shukri Yusuf Abdul-Nabi as Ministry of Planning

•Bayati, confirms that the recommendations of the United Nations report on Iraq

•UN requires that Iraq meet its obligations to Kuwait to restore the international status

•UN Sec General says Iraq must commit in writing

•23rd Annual Arab Summit to be held May 11th in Baghdad

•Secretary-General urges Iraqi leaders to finish forming new Government

•CBI: Iraq will use the IMF to end the file of commercial debt

•Maliki Press Release: PM Maliki receives call from VP Biden

•Sec. Gates in Baghdad for talks with Iraqi officials

A quick glance at the headlines above provides evidence that Iraq is on the brink of an economic and political turnaround.

The GOI is slow at seating its government but with the Minister of Planning now official only the National Security, Interior, Defense ministries need filled. The names of these candidates are now in the hands of Maliki and undergoing integrity checks. One could assume the candidate names will be presented as early as next week or the following week.

It is apparent the lifting of Chapter VII sanctions is a key factor for Iraq as of late and very likely a gateway for the RV.

In December 2010 the trade sanctions were lifted leaving only those sanctions tied to Kuwait. It is quite possible the sanctions lifted in December was enough to allow an RV. But as time continues to pass a full Chapter VII release is looking more necessary.

Majority of the headlines above directly or indirectly involve Iraq and its future under Chapter VII sanctions. There is clear evidence a major push by the UN, Iraq, and Kuwait exists to resolve the outstanding issues regarding Chapter VII.

There is significant discussion taking place among speculators about Iraq and its ascension to the World Trade Organization (WTO). If Iraq has clearly met its objectives as stated in the above article and if the partial lifting of Chapter VII sanctions which took place in Dec. 2010 is enough by WTO standards then Iraq’s ascension is a possibility in the very near future.

However we must consider a statement taken from the WTO website “How to become a member of the WTO” and under the topic “Who Can Apply” the except reads “Any state or customs territory having full autonomy in the conduct of its trade policies is eligible to accede to the WTO on terms agreed between it and WTO Members”.

http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/acces_e.htm

The definition of an autonomous country would be “free from external authority”. Would full or partial UN Chapter VII sanctions be an example of external authority? If Iraq must be fully autonomous or completely free from external authority, Chapter VII must then be completely lifted prior to WTO ascension.

And this would make sense as a release from Chapter VII and agreeing to IMF Article VIII obligations would provide a gateway for Iraq’s currency to become internationally recognized.

Furthermore, the WTO website states….The final package in deciding to become a full member, consisting of the report, protocol and lists of commitments, is presented to the WTO General Council or the Ministerial Conference. If a two-thirds majority of WTO members vote in favour, the applicant is free to sign the protocol and to accede to the organization. In many cases, the country’s own parliament or legislature has to ratify the agreement before membership is complete.

Nevertheless it is conceivable we will see a Iraq and Kuwait find common ground and subsequently witness a full Chapter VII release in the very near future based upon the trend we are experiencing today.

I continue to believe we are progressing toward the RV in a logical almost orchestrated situation.

I would like to thank each person who follows Currency Newshound / IQD News via the blog, Twitter, and Facebook.

Thank you and soon we will all have a pocket full of blessings,

Just Hopin

Like always I will caveat this by saying we are dealing with Iraq. Anything can happen that can cause delay as we have witnessed so many times before. While I do not foresee anything delaying this forward movement at this time I reserve the right to downgrade the RV-O-Meter as needed.

•Preparing for Cash In

•RV-O-Meter will alert with due diligence

Rumors and Intel

I can’t emphasize enough the facts and headlines alone are encouraging alone without the need of rumors!

As we grow closer and closer to actual events that lead us to the revaluation of the dinar rumors will begin to churn out on a daily basis. Unfortunately good news brings the investor a great deal of rumors and intel to discern.

Please use caution and refrain from jumping at every rumor that surfaces. The past has revealed 9 out of 10 times the statement typically is not true…so therefore use your best judgment.

Each rumor and bit of intel should be taken lightly until events begin to evolve that lend credence to the statement. No rumor or intel is better than the next unless the statement begins to show validity. I remind you to use your own logic and common sense when reading rumors and intel statements including those opinions expressed in the RV-O-Meter update.

I would also like to add that as rumors become more intense and often believable it should not make you dig deeper into your pocket and savings. Investing in currency is a wonderful plan however buying more dinar or any investment outside of your budget or beyond your means all in anticipation the rv to take place based on rumor/intel is not smart investing. Always use your best judgment and never put yourself or family in jeopardy.

http://tinyurl.com/3h37fun

[yusofsabri]

M is under pressure to ensure GOI fully seated. Go RV.

[glo]

Babyorca thank you very much for the post ! it's excellent !

[umbertino]

The RV O'Meter is useless and doesn't mean jack to begin with.

[elmstreet61]

Babyorca....fantastic work, wow!!

Classic example of the dedication and effort that Canadians put into anything they do. "Merci Beaucoup" from Australia, mate!!

A good motto to live by:

Under-promise, but Over-deliver

Babyorca sure does that.... you have no idea how much all of us appreciate your effort here.

Double Peace and lots of happiness and good health to you and your family.

[babyorca]

Thanks for the compliments guys most appreciated.

[BanG]

Very nice find Orca! +1. This was a really cool compilation of whats being and been done thus far in Iraq. The article offers reassurance and confidence to the investor that their actually is a light at the end of the tunnel as they say. I did not know about the RV O'Meter and thus hope it is not based on current Intel from we all know whom. All kidding aside it looks as though this is being thoughtfully adjusted based on actual NEWS and FACTS. As I said earlier very encouraging to the investor. JMO. Peace.

[upnorth]

Babyorca - thanks so much. Your summary of things is the best I have read so far. Reading news articles from Iraq is difficult because of the translation but you have presented it very nicely. Keep up the good work and I look forwarded to more of your posts. Thanks again!

[zapped777]

Thanks BABY!! Have a great day!

[chris1]

This is a completely useless piece of the internet, who are you to decide that everyone is 99% ready to cash in? I can't believe you wasted time designing that thing.

If there was any vague guesstimate truth to your "RV-O-METER" it should be somewhere in the neutral area or lower - there has been no news at all that proves an RV of the Iraqi Dinar is as imminent as you're claiming.

You're just hyping people up unnecessarily like the pumpers...

[bobby_cahill]

How bout not looking at the percentage and read the content

Did i mention READ the content

Some people are never satisfied

Thanks for the post

Semper Fi

[MPG350]

Been at 99% for awhile it means jack....dont base what will happen on some site some person owns and changes the numbers....they don't know anything just like the rest of us.

[Eagle007]

best post in a long time thanks the take-away is:

Please use caution and refrain from jumping at every rumor that surfaces. The past has revealed 9 out of 10 times the statement typically is not true…so therefore use your best judgment.

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