30 at 50 Posted January 29, 2011 Report Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Fund FMG Special Opportunity Fund Iraq The world’s most exciting emerging markets story? Disclaimer: This summary is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy. Citizens or residents of the United States may not invest in this Fund. Opinions and estimates constitute the manager’s judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in emerging markets should be considered high risk where a portion or total loss of capital is conceivable. No assurance can be given that the investment objective will be achieved or that an investor will receive a return of all or part of his/her initial capital, and investment results can fluctuate substantially over any given time period. Please refer to the Fund’s prospectus which contains brief descriptions of certain risks associated with investing in the fund. Questions should be directed to your local representative or financial advisor. This document may not be reproduced, distributed, or published for any purpose without the prior written consent of the manager. Ver 2-10-5 1 The Opportunity In the 1990’s there was a chance to invest in Russia when the RTS index was at 100, now it is at 1400, even after the 2008 market crash. Today, a similar opportunity is about to unfold… Iraq Huge potentials for post-war reconstruction with high GDP growth expected. Potential to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. Value of oil reserves approximately USD 9 trillion at an oil price of $80. Majority of oil revenues goes to the Iraqi government. Iraq’s stock market capitalization is $2.5bn – which equals 1% of Russia’s or 0.8% of Saudi Arabia’s. Market Cap/GDP below 4%. Neighboring countries has a Market Cap/GDP of over 80%. Fully operational stock market with 90 listed companies. Stock market largely untouched by international investors but 2 for how long…? Iraq Once home to ancient Mesopotamia, the territory currently making up Iraq was part of the Ottoman Empire from the sixteenth century onwards until WWI when it was occupied by Britain under the mandate system. Britain granted independence to the then Iraqi Kingdom in 1932 but the monarchy was overthrown in 1958 by a military coup d'état. In 1968 the Arab nationalist Ba’ath Party gained power through a coup, and in 1979 Saddam Hussein came into power and ruled Iraq as president until the war in 2003. Following the allied invasion a new transitional government was sworn in. In 2005, a draft constitution was approved by referendum and elections for a full-term parliament were held. Despite a major spike in violence in 2006-07, security conditions have improved and provincial elections held in 2009 were relatively smooth. Successful national elections where held in March of 2010 and the process of government formation is underway. Total Area: 438,317 sq. km (at par with Spain) Natural Resources: Oil, gas, phosphates, sulfur, arable land Government type: parliamentary democracy Population: 30 million Population growth: 2.5% Demographics: 39% under age of 14 Ethnic groups: Arab 75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20%, Turks, Assyrian, and other 5% Literacy rate: 74% School life expectancy: 10 years 3 Enormous Potential There are few frontier markets as exciting as Iraq. The country has 115bn barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves, the third-largest in the world (Canada’s reserves are mainly oil sands that are expensive to operate). Iraq is a low-cost producer that is located near major Asian and European markets. Source: EIA, CIA 4 Oil is the key In 10 years time, Iraq could potentially be the worlds largest oil producer According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), the cluster of super-giant oil fields of south-eastern Iraq forms the largest known concentration of such deposits in the world and accounts for 70-80% of the country’s proven oil reserves. When it comes to oil, Iraq’s land is the least explored country in this oil-rich part of the Middle East. Estimates of Iraq’s proven and probable oil reserves range from 200bn to 300bn bbl which matches the resources of Saudi Arabia. Due to underinvestment, wars and sanctions, just a fraction of Iraq’s known fields are in production. Iraq has the lowest production-to-reserves ratio of major oil-producing countries, suggesting a huge upside potential. Current production is at 2.5m barrels per day (bpd), but the government is targeting a production of 6m bpd in the next 3-4 years. BP estimates that oil production in 2020 could reach 10m bpd. Several oil licensing rounds have been held in 2009 and 2010. Notable oil sharing agreements have been made with BP and CNPC for the development of the Rumaila oil field. When developed, this field alone could double current oil production. Increased oil production could raise GDP by 50% in the next 5 years according to IMF, OPEC, Global Insight and Business Monitor estimates 5 Oil Comments... “BP has committed to Iraq despite the oil law not being finalised, and we are confident that we have a great opportunity”. Tony Hayward, Group CEO of BP told Gulf News at the World Economic Forum. “It was made very clear to us by the Iraqi government that we had to choose between investing in the main part of Iraq, or in Kurdistan. We chose Iraq:, said Hayward. Earlier he spoke to a session on sustainable energy supply of the importance of BP’s plans in Iraq, which he expects will grow from one million barrels a day (bpd) to three million bpd in the next ten years. “We expect total production from Iraq to increase to 10 million bpd by 2020. All the current plans shown more is possible, but 10 million bpd is realistic, “ he said. The importance of Iraq as a source of new supply is in the context of world demand for energy growing from the present 85 million bpd to 100 million bpd by 2050, and in an industry which thinks in 20 to 30 year projects, this does not leave much time”. Peter Vosser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell agree with these global numbers and said to achieve this target, the combined oil industry will need to invest $27 trillion (roughly the sum that all the governments of the world have spent to save the world’s financial system)”. 6 -Gulf News, Friday, Jan 29, 2010 Iraq Stock Exchange = Less than 1% of Exxon Mobil Iraq holds 115bn bbl of oil reserves, Stock Exchange Market Cap (bn USD) produces 2.5m bpd (and increasing) and it’s stock market capitalization is $2.5bn. As a comparison, Exxon Mobile holds 450 around 20bn bbl of oil reserves, produces 400 4m bpd and is valued at $350bn...! 350 300 Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) market 250 capitalization equals less than 1% of Saudi 200 Arabia’s despite almost matching Saudi oil 150 reserves. 100 50 Iraqi listed securities are: 0 Under valued vs. Iraqi history Under valued vs. neighboring countries Under valued vs. oil reserves & economy The numbers in brackets indicate size of the stock market vs. Iraq 7 Iraq Stock Exchange - ISX The growing consensus of asset mangers in Iraq is that the ISX market capitalization will grow 3 times in 3 years and 10-20 times in 10 years. Turnover $1-3m per day, trading 5 days a week Nasdaq/OMX trading system No restriction on foreign ownership No taxes on profits Dow Jones to create a new stock market index Banks, media and telecom IPOs expected in 2011. One telecom company alone is expected to double market capitalization Untouched by foreign investors 8 Source: Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange - ISX Sectors by Market Cap Sectors by Traded Volume Tourism & Investments 1% Hotels Agriculture Services Agriculture 4% Investments 1% 3% 1% Services 4% 5% Industry 12% Industry Touris 8% m& Hotels 14% Banks 69% Banks 78% 9 Source: Godvig Capital Management Corp Economy High GDP growth of 5-10% expected Inflation tamed below 5% Debt levels close to zero Iraqi Dinar has appreciated since 2007 and is expected to continue to do so 10 Source: IMF Stat 2008 Economy Key macro indicators are positive with reduced debt levels, inflation in single digits and strong GDP growth. 11 Source: IMF, Central Bank of Iraq, BAS-ML estimates Risk Since 2007 the security situation in Iraq has improved and the number of casualties have dropped dramatically. This new found stability has led to a framework of functioning government and a more attractive business climate. Security continues to be a big issue and the withdrawal of allied troops, scheduled for 2011, is a potential risk. Other potential flashpoint are: the distribution of oil wealth, the autonomous Kurdistan, ethnic and secretarian violence and the power of central government. The economy is heavily dependant on oil. It is three times more sensitive to oil price changes than Russia. The stock exchange is relatively transparent but company and counterparty risk levels are high and blow ups can occur. Portfolio diversification will try to mitigate these circumstances. In case of a break down of the country the stock market will probably be closed down and the pricing mechanism might not work for a period of time. The daily volume on the stock market is low, $1-3m per day, and it will be difficult to liquidate positions quickly in a poor market environment. Investors Source: ICCC should have a 3-5 year horizon on his Iraqi investment. 12 The Fund Country Allocation Fund Cash 5.0% Financials 49 % Will participate on a broad basis in the fast growing Oil & Energy 17 % Other 9 % Iraq Stock Exchange with expanding ownership, improved liquidity and a substantial increase in IPO’s. Hotel & Tourism 9 % Construction 4 % Will mainly be invested in stocks listed on the Iraq Industry 2 % Security 2 % Stock Exchange but also in offshore listed shares that derive a significant part of their business and potential TMT 2 % from Iraq or in Dinar/USD/Euro cash and bonds. Aims to benefit from Iraq’s economic recovery and a rapidly growing energy sector. Investment style will predominantly be long-only. 13 options 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffany23 Posted January 29, 2011 Report Share Posted January 29, 2011 Excelllent! One of the most well research articles I've read. Thank you so much for posting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HYDRANT Posted January 29, 2011 Report Share Posted January 29, 2011 GREAT POST-GREAT FIND AGREE W/TIFFANY23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydee Posted January 29, 2011 Report Share Posted January 29, 2011 The potential for a great nation is there. I hope and pray for the Iragi people that their newly elected Govt. will do right by them. thanks for the great post. God Bless Semper Fi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank61 Posted January 30, 2011 Report Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Fund FMG Special Opportunity Fund Iraq The world’s most exciting emerging markets story? Disclaimer: This summary is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy. Citizens or residents of the United States may not invest in this Fund. Opinions and estimates constitute the manager’s judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in emerging markets should be considered high risk where a portion or total loss of capital is conceivable. No assurance can be given that the investment objective will be achieved or that an investor will receive a return of all or part of his/her initial capital, and investment results can fluctuate substantially over any given time period. Please refer to the Fund’s prospectus which contains brief descriptions of certain risks associated with investing in the fund. Questions should be directed to your local representative or financial advisor. This document may not be reproduced, distributed, or published for any purpose without the prior written consent of the manager. Ver 2-10-5 1 The Opportunity In the 1990’s there was a chance to invest in Russia when the RTS index was at 100, now it is at 1400, even after the 2008 market crash. Today, a similar opportunity is about to unfold… Iraq Huge potentials for post-war reconstruction with high GDP growth expected. Potential to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. Value of oil reserves approximately USD 9 trillion at an oil price of $80. Majority of oil revenues goes to the Iraqi government. Iraq’s stock market capitalization is $2.5bn – which equals 1% of Russia’s or 0.8% of Saudi Arabia’s. Market Cap/GDP below 4%. Neighboring countries has a Market Cap/GDP of over 80%. Fully operational stock market with 90 listed companies. Stock market largely untouched by international investors but 2 for how long…? Iraq Once home to ancient Mesopotamia, the territory currently making up Iraq was part of the Ottoman Empire from the sixteenth century onwards until WWI when it was occupied by Britain under the mandate system. Britain granted independence to the then Iraqi Kingdom in 1932 but the monarchy was overthrown in 1958 by a military coup d'état. In 1968 the Arab nationalist Ba’ath Party gained power through a coup, and in 1979 Saddam Hussein came into power and ruled Iraq as president until the war in 2003. Following the allied invasion a new transitional government was sworn in. In 2005, a draft constitution was approved by referendum and elections for a full-term parliament were held. Despite a major spike in violence in 2006-07, security conditions have improved and provincial elections held in 2009 were relatively smooth. Successful national elections where held in March of 2010 and the process of government formation is underway. Total Area: 438,317 sq. km (at par with Spain) Natural Resources: Oil, gas, phosphates, sulfur, arable land Government type: parliamentary democracy Population: 30 million Population growth: 2.5% Demographics: 39% under age of 14 Ethnic groups: Arab 75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20%, Turks, Assyrian, and other 5% Literacy rate: 74% School life expectancy: 10 years 3 Enormous Potential There are few frontier markets as exciting as Iraq. The country has 115bn barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves, the third-largest in the world (Canada’s reserves are mainly oil sands that are expensive to operate). Iraq is a low-cost producer that is located near major Asian and European markets. Source: EIA, CIA 4 Oil is the key In 10 years time, Iraq could potentially be the worlds largest oil producer According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), the cluster of super-giant oil fields of south-eastern Iraq forms the largest known concentration of such deposits in the world and accounts for 70-80% of the country’s proven oil reserves. When it comes to oil, Iraq’s land is the least explored country in this oil-rich part of the Middle East. Estimates of Iraq’s proven and probable oil reserves range from 200bn to 300bn bbl which matches the resources of Saudi Arabia. Due to underinvestment, wars and sanctions, just a fraction of Iraq’s known fields are in production. Iraq has the lowest production-to-reserves ratio of major oil-producing countries, suggesting a huge upside potential. Current production is at 2.5m barrels per day (bpd), but the government is targeting a production of 6m bpd in the next 3-4 years. BP estimates that oil production in 2020 could reach 10m bpd. Several oil licensing rounds have been held in 2009 and 2010. Notable oil sharing agreements have been made with BP and CNPC for the development of the Rumaila oil field. When developed, this field alone could double current oil production. Increased oil production could raise GDP by 50% in the next 5 years according to IMF, OPEC, Global Insight and Business Monitor estimates 5 Oil Comments... “BP has committed to Iraq despite the oil law not being finalised, and we are confident that we have a great opportunity”. Tony Hayward, Group CEO of BP told Gulf News at the World Economic Forum. “It was made very clear to us by the Iraqi government that we had to choose between investing in the main part of Iraq, or in Kurdistan. We chose Iraq:, said Hayward. Earlier he spoke to a session on sustainable energy supply of the importance of BP’s plans in Iraq, which he expects will grow from one million barrels a day (bpd) to three million bpd in the next ten years. “We expect total production from Iraq to increase to 10 million bpd by 2020. All the current plans shown more is possible, but 10 million bpd is realistic, “ he said. The importance of Iraq as a source of new supply is in the context of world demand for energy growing from the present 85 million bpd to 100 million bpd by 2050, and in an industry which thinks in 20 to 30 year projects, this does not leave much time”. Peter Vosser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell agree with these global numbers and said to achieve this target, the combined oil industry will need to invest $27 trillion (roughly the sum that all the governments of the world have spent to save the world’s financial system)”. 6 -Gulf News, Friday, Jan 29, 2010 Iraq Stock Exchange = Less than 1% of Exxon Mobil Iraq holds 115bn bbl of oil reserves, Stock Exchange Market Cap (bn USD) produces 2.5m bpd (and increasing) and it’s stock market capitalization is $2.5bn. As a comparison, Exxon Mobile holds 450 around 20bn bbl of oil reserves, produces 400 4m bpd and is valued at $350bn...! 350 300 Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) market 250 capitalization equals less than 1% of Saudi 200 Arabia’s despite almost matching Saudi oil 150 reserves. 100 50 Iraqi listed securities are: 0 Under valued vs. Iraqi history Under valued vs. neighboring countries Under valued vs. oil reserves & economy The numbers in brackets indicate size of the stock market vs. Iraq 7 Iraq Stock Exchange - ISX The growing consensus of asset mangers in Iraq is that the ISX market capitalization will grow 3 times in 3 years and 10-20 times in 10 years. Turnover $1-3m per day, trading 5 days a week Nasdaq/OMX trading system No restriction on foreign ownership No taxes on profits Dow Jones to create a new stock market index Banks, media and telecom IPOs expected in 2011. One telecom company alone is expected to double market capitalization Untouched by foreign investors 8 Source: Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange - ISX Sectors by Market Cap Sectors by Traded Volume Tourism & Investments 1% Hotels Agriculture Services Agriculture 4% Investments 1% 3% 1% Services 4% 5% Industry 12% Industry Touris 8% m& Hotels 14% Banks 69% Banks 78% 9 Source: Godvig Capital Management Corp Economy High GDP growth of 5-10% expected Inflation tamed below 5% Debt levels close to zero Iraqi Dinar has appreciated since 2007 and is expected to continue to do so 10 Source: IMF Stat 2008 Economy Key macro indicators are positive with reduced debt levels, inflation in single digits and strong GDP growth. 11 Source: IMF, Central Bank of Iraq, BAS-ML estimates Risk Since 2007 the security situation in Iraq has improved and the number of casualties have dropped dramatically. This new found stability has led to a framework of functioning government and a more attractive business climate. Security continues to be a big issue and the withdrawal of allied troops, scheduled for 2011, is a potential risk. Other potential flashpoint are: the distribution of oil wealth, the autonomous Kurdistan, ethnic and secretarian violence and the power of central government. The economy is heavily dependant on oil. It is three times more sensitive to oil price changes than Russia. The stock exchange is relatively transparent but company and counterparty risk levels are high and blow ups can occur. Portfolio diversification will try to mitigate these circumstances. In case of a break down of the country the stock market will probably be closed down and the pricing mechanism might not work for a period of time. The daily volume on the stock market is low, $1-3m per day, and it will be difficult to liquidate positions quickly in a poor market environment. Investors Source: ICCC should have a 3-5 year horizon on his Iraqi investment. 12 The Fund Country Allocation Fund Cash 5.0% Financials 49 % Will participate on a broad basis in the fast growing Oil & Energy 17 % Other 9 % Iraq Stock Exchange with expanding ownership, improved liquidity and a substantial increase in IPO’s. Hotel & Tourism 9 % Construction 4 % Will mainly be invested in stocks listed on the Iraq Industry 2 % Security 2 % Stock Exchange but also in offshore listed shares that derive a significant part of their business and potential TMT 2 % from Iraq or in Dinar/USD/Euro cash and bonds. Aims to benefit from Iraq’s economic recovery and a rapidly growing energy sector. Investment style will predominantly be long-only. 13 options Great post !! Loaded with a lot of data not usually presented. For example 40% of Iraqs population being inder the age of 14 ! Thats amazing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brencorp Posted January 31, 2011 Report Share Posted January 31, 2011 The Fund FMG Special Opportunity Fund Iraq The world’s most exciting emerging markets story? Disclaimer: This summary is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy. Citizens or residents of the United States may not invest in this Fund. Opinions and estimates constitute the manager’s judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in emerging markets should be considered high risk where a portion or total loss of capital is conceivable. No assurance can be given that the investment objective will be achieved or that an investor will receive a return of all or part of his/her initial capital, and investment results can fluctuate substantially over any given time period. Please refer to the Fund’s prospectus which contains brief descriptions of certain risks associated with investing in the fund. Questions should be directed to your local representative or financial advisor. This document may not be reproduced, distributed, or published for any purpose without the prior written consent of the manager. Ver 2-10-5 1 The Opportunity In the 1990’s there was a chance to invest in Russia when the RTS index was at 100, now it is at 1400, even after the 2008 market crash. Today, a similar opportunity is about to unfold… Iraq Huge potentials for post-war reconstruction with high GDP growth expected. Potential to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. Value of oil reserves approximately USD 9 trillion at an oil price of $80. Majority of oil revenues goes to the Iraqi government. Iraq’s stock market capitalization is $2.5bn – which equals 1% of Russia’s or 0.8% of Saudi Arabia’s. Market Cap/GDP below 4%. Neighboring countries has a Market Cap/GDP of over 80%. Fully operational stock market with 90 listed companies. Stock market largely untouched by international investors but 2 for how long…? Iraq Once home to ancient Mesopotamia, the territory currently making up Iraq was part of the Ottoman Empire from the sixteenth century onwards until WWI when it was occupied by Britain under the mandate system. Britain granted independence to the then Iraqi Kingdom in 1932 but the monarchy was overthrown in 1958 by a military coup d'état. In 1968 the Arab nationalist Ba’ath Party gained power through a coup, and in 1979 Saddam Hussein came into power and ruled Iraq as president until the war in 2003. Following the allied invasion a new transitional government was sworn in. In 2005, a draft constitution was approved by referendum and elections for a full-term parliament were held. Despite a major spike in violence in 2006-07, security conditions have improved and provincial elections held in 2009 were relatively smooth. Successful national elections where held in March of 2010 and the process of government formation is underway. Total Area: 438,317 sq. km (at par with Spain) Natural Resources: Oil, gas, phosphates, sulfur, arable land Government type: parliamentary democracy Population: 30 million Population growth: 2.5% Demographics: 39% under age of 14 Ethnic groups: Arab 75%-80%, Kurdish 15%-20%, Turks, Assyrian, and other 5% Literacy rate: 74% School life expectancy: 10 years 3 Enormous Potential There are few frontier markets as exciting as Iraq. The country has 115bn barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves, the third-largest in the world (Canada’s reserves are mainly oil sands that are expensive to operate). Iraq is a low-cost producer that is located near major Asian and European markets. Source: EIA, CIA 4 Oil is the key In 10 years time, Iraq could potentially be the worlds largest oil producer According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), the cluster of super-giant oil fields of south-eastern Iraq forms the largest known concentration of such deposits in the world and accounts for 70-80% of the country’s proven oil reserves. When it comes to oil, Iraq’s land is the least explored country in this oil-rich part of the Middle East. Estimates of Iraq’s proven and probable oil reserves range from 200bn to 300bn bbl which matches the resources of Saudi Arabia. Due to underinvestment, wars and sanctions, just a fraction of Iraq’s known fields are in production. Iraq has the lowest production-to-reserves ratio of major oil-producing countries, suggesting a huge upside potential. Current production is at 2.5m barrels per day (bpd), but the government is targeting a production of 6m bpd in the next 3-4 years. BP estimates that oil production in 2020 could reach 10m bpd. Several oil licensing rounds have been held in 2009 and 2010. Notable oil sharing agreements have been made with BP and CNPC for the development of the Rumaila oil field. When developed, this field alone could double current oil production. Increased oil production could raise GDP by 50% in the next 5 years according to IMF, OPEC, Global Insight and Business Monitor estimates 5 Oil Comments... “BP has committed to Iraq despite the oil law not being finalised, and we are confident that we have a great opportunity”. Tony Hayward, Group CEO of BP told Gulf News at the World Economic Forum. “It was made very clear to us by the Iraqi government that we had to choose between investing in the main part of Iraq, or in Kurdistan. We chose Iraq:, said Hayward. Earlier he spoke to a session on sustainable energy supply of the importance of BP’s plans in Iraq, which he expects will grow from one million barrels a day (bpd) to three million bpd in the next ten years. “We expect total production from Iraq to increase to 10 million bpd by 2020. All the current plans shown more is possible, but 10 million bpd is realistic, “ he said. The importance of Iraq as a source of new supply is in the context of world demand for energy growing from the present 85 million bpd to 100 million bpd by 2050, and in an industry which thinks in 20 to 30 year projects, this does not leave much time”. Peter Vosser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell agree with these global numbers and said to achieve this target, the combined oil industry will need to invest $27 trillion (roughly the sum that all the governments of the world have spent to save the world’s financial system)”. 6 -Gulf News, Friday, Jan 29, 2010 Iraq Stock Exchange = Less than 1% of Exxon Mobil Iraq holds 115bn bbl of oil reserves, Stock Exchange Market Cap (bn USD) produces 2.5m bpd (and increasing) and it’s stock market capitalization is $2.5bn. As a comparison, Exxon Mobile holds 450 around 20bn bbl of oil reserves, produces 400 4m bpd and is valued at $350bn...! 350 300 Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) market 250 capitalization equals less than 1% of Saudi 200 Arabia’s despite almost matching Saudi oil 150 reserves. 100 50 Iraqi listed securities are: 0 Under valued vs. Iraqi history Under valued vs. neighboring countries Under valued vs. oil reserves & economy The numbers in brackets indicate size of the stock market vs. Iraq 7 Iraq Stock Exchange - ISX The growing consensus of asset mangers in Iraq is that the ISX market capitalization will grow 3 times in 3 years and 10-20 times in 10 years. Turnover $1-3m per day, trading 5 days a week Nasdaq/OMX trading system No restriction on foreign ownership No taxes on profits Dow Jones to create a new stock market index Banks, media and telecom IPOs expected in 2011. One telecom company alone is expected to double market capitalization Untouched by foreign investors 8 Source: Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange - ISX Sectors by Market Cap Sectors by Traded Volume Tourism & Investments 1% Hotels Agriculture Services Agriculture 4% Investments 1% 3% 1% Services 4% 5% Industry 12% Industry Touris 8% m& Hotels 14% Banks 69% Banks 78% 9 Source: Godvig Capital Management Corp Economy High GDP growth of 5-10% expected Inflation tamed below 5% Debt levels close to zero Iraqi Dinar has appreciated since 2007 and is expected to continue to do so 10 Source: IMF Stat 2008 Economy Key macro indicators are positive with reduced debt levels, inflation in single digits and strong GDP growth. 11 Source: IMF, Central Bank of Iraq, BAS-ML estimates Risk Since 2007 the security situation in Iraq has improved and the number of casualties have dropped dramatically. This new found stability has led to a framework of functioning government and a more attractive business climate. Security continues to be a big issue and the withdrawal of allied troops, scheduled for 2011, is a potential risk. Other potential flashpoint are: the distribution of oil wealth, the autonomous Kurdistan, ethnic and secretarian violence and the power of central government. The economy is heavily dependant on oil. It is three times more sensitive to oil price changes than Russia. The stock exchange is relatively transparent but company and counterparty risk levels are high and blow ups can occur. Portfolio diversification will try to mitigate these circumstances. In case of a break down of the country the stock market will probably be closed down and the pricing mechanism might not work for a period of time. The daily volume on the stock market is low, $1-3m per day, and it will be difficult to liquidate positions quickly in a poor market environment. Investors Source: ICCC should have a 3-5 year horizon on his Iraqi investment. 12 The Fund Country Allocation Fund Cash 5.0% Financials 49 % Will participate on a broad basis in the fast growing Oil & Energy 17 % Other 9 % Iraq Stock Exchange with expanding ownership, improved liquidity and a substantial increase in IPO’s. Hotel & Tourism 9 % Construction 4 % Will mainly be invested in stocks listed on the Iraq Industry 2 % Security 2 % Stock Exchange but also in offshore listed shares that derive a significant part of their business and potential TMT 2 % from Iraq or in Dinar/USD/Euro cash and bonds. Aims to benefit from Iraq’s economic recovery and a rapidly growing energy sector. Investment style will predominantly be long-only. 13 options wow a lot of info good read 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
god bless Posted January 31, 2011 Report Share Posted January 31, 2011 GREAT POST.....I HOPE MOST INVESTORS IN DINARVETS WILL APPRECIATE THIS INFO,AND MAKE GOOD USE OF IT... AFTER THE RV,PLEASE INVEST YOUR RV MONEY IN IRAQ...IN THE STOCK MARKET... MILLIONS WILL BE MADE IN THE STOCK MARKET... I WILL BE INVESTING 10 TO 20 % OFF MY RV RETURNS...ASK YOUR LOCAL STOCKBROKER FOR MORE ADVICE...AS ALWAYS...GOD BLESS..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrinityeXchange Posted September 21, 2011 Report Share Posted September 21, 2011 man i'm glad i found this write up! nicely done. i can hardly wait to receive my isx account number. seems like it is taking forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRob Posted September 21, 2011 Report Share Posted September 21, 2011 I believe the Iraqi's will screw up a good thing with their secterian division. When this thing RV's I am OUT of Iraq for good.... I'm not willing to put many (if any) eggs in their basket after seeing how dysfunctional they are. RV and C-Ya! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HawaiianGal Posted September 21, 2011 Report Share Posted September 21, 2011 Why can't we invest in this fund as US Citizens? Where is it located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randalln Posted September 21, 2011 Report Share Posted September 21, 2011 (edited) Why can't we invest in this fund as US Citizens? Where is it located? you dont want to invest in anything that is not regulated remember Madoff This sounds like a scam and there will be alot you will start to see in the next few weeks ...................... Dont lose your wealth in a long shot invest in construction thats where you will make money in the short term remember no matter what happens in the world you have to have food ,clothing ,and shelter Invest in what you use every day and you cant go wrong You can buy property very cheap right now (dont worry that some one lost )think of it that you gained ............ someone has to do it why not you........................ DO NOT THINK EVERY INVESTMENT IS IQD THIS IS ONCE IN A LIFETIME.......................................... currency trading is not for the faint of heart you will lose eventually If you want commodities go with polymers any kind of binding materials that is the future .........................(recycling)needs GLUE think of the (paper clip) if a person can make a wiget for no cost and at the same time make the whole world need it .Thats how you get really rich .................. Edited September 21, 2011 by randalln 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrinityeXchange Posted September 21, 2011 Report Share Posted September 21, 2011 you dont want to invest in anything that is not regulated remember Madoff very good points randalln. dont forget the banking sector. once these banks get rolling making loans, iraq's economy will truly explode. the small business loans is the backbone of a thriving community. i also like the telecommunications sector. these are two areas that i keep vigil over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopefulTxn Posted September 21, 2011 Report Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here is the Link to the PDF that this all came from. One thing to note is that the presentation appears to be about a year and half to two years old, considering it talks about "National elections are due to be held in March of 2010". So if it is operating, they could possibly have some updated info showing how the fund is performing if it is actually in action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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