RV still a ways off

[MrRich]

This came via email. I don't necessarily agree but I think it's important to consider all views and information. I suppose I'll take a few negatives for this but I can handle it. But I do think it's important that we all view this as a long term investment and not look to the RV as a quick fix or a get rich quick approach. If it happens soon, great. If not then so be it.

Dear Friends and fellow Dinar holders,

Take a deep, relaxing breath before reading this....

I had an interesting conversation today with a banker at Wells Fargo who happens to be from the middle east, Now living and working as a premier banker in California.

I will refer to him as Nur as his entire name is difficult to pronounce. He has banking contacts all over the middle east and revealed many things to me that I wanted to pass on to you. Nur gave me extremely good information on the Iraqi Dinar. Not only is he an investor, but he knows many people who are, including personal business friends from Iraq.

He started the conversation by saying that most if not all of the information being posted on the various Dinar blogs is inaccurate. Much of it is made up with no basis on fact. He suggest I ignore anything posted on blogs and conference calls. It is all B.S. to use his words. He says the people on the calls have no idea what they are talking about and have no professional banking experience whatsoever. They rely mostly on business contacts and contractors in Iraq who have no knowledge of government and banking policy.

He also stated without any hesitation that a revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar is a long way into the future. He said based on their current GDP, they are primarily an import based economy as they try and rebuild after years of war. There is no way they are at any export capacity to support a drastic increase in their currency valuation. NO WAY- NO HOW. He was very clear on this point and shared he was told this also by his banking contact in the middle east.

Nur also mentioned that Iran has most of the control and influence in Iraq. Not the US. This was evidenced with the election of Maliki. Nur said, Iran has its hands into everything in Iraq. Much more than you realize.

Regarding the Kuwait and Jordan banks buying dinars at higher rates, this was COMPLETELY FALSE. Never happened!. As a banker he said that could NEVER HAPPEN and those rumors were completely false.

He did say he believed over time the Iraqi Dinar would revalue as Iraq exports dramatically increased. Right now, there is no way their current budget could support any significant RV. Absolutely, and completely IMPOSSIBLE.

When I asked him about the Kuwaiti dinar revaluing after the first gulf war from under 10 cents to over $3.50 he said that was under completely different circumstances and that Kuwait was exporting huge amounts of oil. They had the production levels to support the RV of their currency at that time. A completely different story than Iraq.

This is a man from the middle east. He is a man of mixed heritage. American-Iranian and Jewish. He grew up in Israel and has been in investment banking for many years.

Now here is the good news. He said he is an investor and does believe the Iraqi Dinar will eventually revalue. He believes based on the economic models Iraq is projecting into the future, it could take up to a year or more before any significant revaluation occurs. Exports are the key! Right now, Iraq has the oil under the sand, but they do not have the production facilities and infrastructure to bring sufficient quantities of that oil to market.

Based on this conversation today from someone I would consider an expert in his field, we all must be prepared to wait for Iraq to develop. He also mentioned the amount of valuation of the Iraq dinar will be tied directly to it's economy. There is no set fixed rate of $3.22. The rate will be entirely based on the economic production and exports...nothing more!

So there you have it my friends. Directly from a banker at Wells Fargo who happens to be from the middle east. The question is, are you prepared to wait six months, twelve months, eighteen months or two more years for the Dinar to RV? If so, I think we all will be happy. If not, then you can always sell them back at any time.

For me, I'm holding with a more realistic outlook for an RV to occur anytime between now and the next two years. I also believe the buy back price from Dinar Banker and Dinar Trade will continue to increase the rest of this year. So I am very content and will continue to support the continued growth and development of Iraq. The sooner the better, but I'm prepared to be patient.

I strongly suggest you eliminate any anxiety of an immediate RV. After speaking to this man, I will remain optimistic and realistic. I will disregard any postings from blogs. I will check the CBI website from time to time and wait until Iraq is ready. I think this is the realistic approach to take.

Edited January 28, 2011 by MrRich

[KentuckyDan]

Excellent realistic response....upsetting for some...but relistic to be sure! It keeps the dream alive!

[HYDRANT]

GREAT POST AND I DO THINK THIS COULD BE VERY GOOD SOURCE,I NEVER BELIVE ANTHING THAT IS TRUE UNLESS I GET THE FACTS IN FRONT OF ME

[DIAMOND]

thank you mr rich interesting opinon, unless he has a direct contact in cbi or government its just his opinon an as far as short term investment well 7yrs an still waiting. Thank you for the post mr rich

[Romad]

Some of this i believe but some I do not. I was in Kuwait during the invasion and I saw first hand the destruction to the oil infrastructor.

Almost all of the oil pipe lines and wells were on fire and or destroyed. This was not something that was repaired over night by any means.

2 countries with 2 different situations. Anything is possible. Iraq does need to let things go and do the right thing for the people of Iraq.

I will not speculate what will happen but Iraq is not kuwait and middle eastern culture is to hold a grudge for decades. We all need to

learn to have patients and keep the faith. Hang in there, it will happen when they are ready to let go.

God Speed all

Aim High....

[gman51]

This is no surprise to me. I have been under the assumption that this is a longterm investment since I first bought in early 2004. I gave it 10-15 years to pay off and that was 7 years ago. I see it being 3-8 more years before any significant increase in value. But I do admit, secretly, I have been hoping for it to happen sooner.

[steveo]

im in it till the end regardless of the time it will take......goood post thanks mr rich

[jola]

The only problem that I see with this:

I understand that maybe Iraq's oil export level is not up ( YET), because we are still waiting on the Oil Law and such. But this will be done ASAP - my understanding...

So, okay, they don't export as much, but...they have to rebuild a country.

They don't produce aything that they need, they import everything. With a low rate for dinar, wouldn't be in their advantage if they actually revalued before all the projects taking off?

Why would they pay 1000 times more for a product they need? I don't see the logic behind it.

Iraq may be a big OIL exporter, but at this time they are a big EVERYTHING ELSE IMPORTER. And when you import, the purchasing power of your currency is the most important thing....

[dinardlee]

I agree with the banker you spoke with, RV is ways off. He obviously has alot of common sense, and the man speaks the truth.

The only sentence I would disagree is "He's been in investment banking for a long time"

Premier bankers in Wells Fargo are retail bankers (personal banker/customer service rep), who deals with clients that have over 250k in liquid cash. I know because I'm in the securities industry myself.

Investment bankers are underwriters, they help raise money bringing in a new issue to the public for a corporation or a municipality. Two totally different animals.

Otherwise, a great post Mr. Rich, your friend is a smart guy with a lot of common sense.

[jola]

What about Shabs talking about making a move - LOP or not - after the GOI is formed?

While I realize that we haven't heard anything in a while from him regarding this, I can not believe that the project has been just erased off the CBI's planning table.

Just saying...

[CaptainJack]

The only problem that I see with this:

I understand that maybe Iraq's oil export level is not up ( YET), because we are still waiting on the Oil Law and such. But this will be done ASAP - my understanding...

So, okay, they don't export as much, but...they have to rebuild a country.

They don't produce aything that they need, they import everything. With a low rate for dinar, wouldn't be in their advantage if they actually revalued before all the projects taking off?

Why would they pay 1000 times more for a product they need? I don't see the logic behind it.

Iraq may be a big OIL exporter, but at this time they are a big EVERYTHING ELSE IMPORTER. And when you import, the purchasing power of your currency is the most important thing....

You CAN'T have a high priced currency without something to back it up (revenue, GDP etc.) Unfortunately, the only thing Iraq has in terms of revenue are proceeds from 1.8 - 2.5 (depending on the source) million barells of oil per day. Just because Iraq "needs' imports at a lower price, doesn't mean they get it ... that's not how real world economics function. Stop listening to the pumpers and all the bs about $3.00 rv. it may get that high at some point in the future, but not for awhile (if ever again).

What about Shabs talking about making a move - LOP or not - after the GOI is formed?

While I realize that we haven't heard anything in a while from him regarding this, I can not believe that the project has been just erased off the CBI's planning table.

Just saying...

It's more than possible for a lop to occur ..... people don't talk about it because if it happens they wouldn't be able to quit their job and live out their Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous dreams. A lop or very low rv is more than possible! But seriously, would all the websites have tons of visitors and the owners be able to sell all the ads if all that was discussed was the dinar would rv at $0.01 or less?

[jola]

You CAN'T have a high priced currency without something to back it up (revenue, GDP etc.) Unfortunately, the only thing Iraq has in terms of revenue are proceeds from 1.8 - 2.5 (depending on the source) million barells of oil per day. Just because Iraq "needs' imports at a lower price, doesn't mean they get it ... that's not how real world economics function. Stop listening to the pumpers and all the bs about $3.00 rv. it may get that high at some point in the future, but not for awhile (if ever again).

It's more than possible for a lop to occur ..... people don't talk about it because if it happens they wouldn't be able to quit their job and live out their Lifestyles of the Rich & Famous dreams. A lop or very low rv is more than possible! But seriously, would all the websites have tons of visitors and the owners be able to sell all the ads if all that was discussed was the dinar would rv at $0.01 or less?

I don't agree with your first paragraph, I agree with the second.

I was just going to say that...No, I am not talking about the $3 rate, what I am talking about is a relatively higher purchasing power. A 10c will do it for me. A LOP has been never out of discussion, but my point is , LOP or low RV - something has got to give here.

[jack]

"There is no set fixed rate of $3.22."

That right there shows you that e-mail is BS and the guy has no clue.

According to the GOI themselves the offical rate of the Iraqi Dinar is $3.22

Sorry Mr Rich but I will go with the Iraqi Government and what they have stated as fact on the MoP website over some non named so called bank expert mentioned in an e-mail that anyone could have fabricated.

Link to the real facts right from the GOI:

http://www.mop.gov.iq/mop/index.jsp?sid=1&id=308&pid=295&lng=en

[Econman33]

This came via email. I don't necessarily agree but I think it's important to consider all views and information. I suppose I'll take a few negatives for this but I can handle it. But I do think it's important that we all view this as a long term investment and not look to the RV as a quick fix or a get rich quick approach. If it happens soon, great. If not then so be it.

I believe this is the Nir that has been posting on this site for months. He has given his location several times. Wells Fargo in CA. He has been saying this for months. Considering he is from ME and invested, I take what he says seriously. Thanks for the post Mr. Rich. And thank you Nir for your input.

[coyote]

jola what you say is a little more believable, but in reality From all the bs, on these blogs I don't know what to believe, I am hoping to save enough dough to get more dinar but would rather it rv'd sooner, who knows.

[Slaydadea]

Thanks for making it real Scooby Doo. I just bought another $100,000 today. My choice of course.

[Hit_the_ground_running]

With all the turmoil going on in Tunisia and Eygpt and the people 'insisting' on change. Maybe the Iraqi government should consider the well being of their people a little more. Personally, I see this happening sooner rather than later.Maybe not for economic reasons, but rather political,social and moral reasons instead.

[Hooter]

My gurus are Maliki, Shabibi, Zabadi, etc. They have all been quoted many times, albeit in Iraqi newspapers that they intend to raise the value of the IQD to be on par with the USD. I have always assumed that this would take place once the GOI was formed, which allegedly was on Dec. 21st, but still is not official. Only time will tell, but Monday always seems logical for me.

[Jim1cor13]

I believe this is the Nir that has been posting on this site for months. He has given his location several times. Wells Fargo in CA. He has been saying this for months. Considering he is from ME and invested, I take what he says seriously. Thanks for the post Mr. Rich. And thank you Nir for your input.

Indeed I thought the same thing Econ I believe it is

our own "nir" and I have always respected his comments

that often many did not like to hear, but he is informed.

Thank you Scooby Doo for the information. I agree with it based upon

my own research, this confirms for me iraq simply is not ready yet,

close, but much work yet to be done. One thing is for sure...no one

is going to "force" them to RV as is so often claimed. When it happens,

it happens. This has never been a get rich quick investment, it is a

long term speculation with great potential. Maybe this info will help slow down the

raging buying from so many people and also STOP the reserve fiasco that

has caused so many to lose more money recently. That is not investing, that is

treating this like a lottery ticket or casino.

Thanks again.

All my best!

Jim

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[harry2299]

MR.RICH, Thank You for that post, no reason you should get any -s, I think everyone should read this, then REALLY think about some of the foolish post that the so called GURU`S put on dinar forums just for the sole purpose of getting people to by more dinar.....Thanks again Mr. Rich......I also think we have a ways to go but in the long run will be wirth it.

[wingsofhope]

Thanks for the post Mr Rich.

I have a problem with comparing the GDP of Kuwait with the GDP of Iraq. First of all in 2008 Kuwaits GDP was $157.9 billion usd and their exchange rate was .2679 (approx) KWD per 1usd.

Today, Iraq's GDP is $65.84 billion usd with an exchange rate of 1155.30 (NetDania).

If you compare the figures, Iraq's actual exchange rate should be .1112 (approx) IRQ per 1usd.

Just food for thought

[thunderrb]

I really believed it would of happened on Dec 27, 2010. Letting the year expire, Iraq lost Billions . I think an immediate RV is just a dream we all share. Realistically speaking, there is work that needs to be done. I also believe our investment is solid and we will be rewarded for our patience.Iran makes me very nervous, as long as they are involved, it will be anyones guess.. There is an old saying.." Expect the worse, hope for the best."

[Marquess]

Never understood why everybody talks about this not being a get rich quick scenario. Quite frankly, it is going to be a get rich quick scenario for a handful of people. But, I don't think you have to tell the folks that have had Dinars since 2004 that this is not going to happen overnight. JMO

[sogoddess]

"There is no set fixed rate of $3.22."

That right there shows you that e-mail is BS and the guy has no clue.

According to the GOI themselves the official rate of the Iraqi Dinar is $3.22

Sorry Mr Rich but I will go with the Iraqi Government and what they have stated as fact on the MoP website over some non named so called bank expert mentioned in an e-mail that anyone could have fabricated.

Link to the real facts right from the GOI:

http://www.mop.gov.iq/mop/index.jsp?sid=1&id=308&pid=295&lng=en

Just pointing out that Paragraph 3 of that link seems to suggest a rate of $1.13.

[easyrider]

ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm thiss has been long term investment since we invaded 7 years ago i thinkt its time to do something.