Med chat 12/8/10 early am

[lgraham]

This is some interesting insight from Med on what Maliki must do to appease Allawi and the Kurds in order to form the Gov't.

Lgraham

Hey Med …. can you field an Iraq related question?

Med says to (05:44:43):

SURE BREEZIN GO AHEAD

I NEVE TURN DOWN A CHALLENGE

EVEN WHEN I AM SICK

breezin says to (05:45:15):

Maliki is saying government formation and the political council formation are two separate things …. sounds like he is ducking or stalling… what do you think?

Med says to (05:45:32):

NO HE IS NOT STALLING

THE POLITICAL COUNCIL TO ME WOULD BE

HE IS ONLY SUPPOSE TO HAVE HIS MINISTRIES IN POSITION

WHICH IS LIKE 40

AND IT WOULD NOT BE FEASIBLE FOR HIM TO STALL

HE HAS NOTHING TO GAIN

AND THE PM TO LOSE BY DOING SO

HE IS ALMOST TO THE HALFWAY MARK

AND WE ALL KNOW HOW THE SECOND HALF OF ANYTHING GOES BY

ALL OF A SUDDEN WHEN YOU CROSS THE HALF WAY MARK

IT GOES FAST

breezin says to (05:48:19):

So Allawi being happy with a political council fully formed is not necessary when Maliki goes to Parliamnet to get his ministries approved?

Med says to (05:49:39):

WHERE IS THE ARTICLE BREEZIN

SO I CAN SEE IT ALL

NOT EXCERPTS

THEN I CAN GIVE AN INFORMATIVE ANSWER

NOT HAVING ALL THE FACTS

breezin says to (05:50:15):

http://www.**************.com/showt…ment-formation

Med says to (05:50:18):

PUTS ME AT A DISADVANTAGE

breezin says to (05:52:56):

This line here makes it sound like Maliki has a lot of time to get the political council formed … “noting that” the Constitution does not lock us cut the time that it may delay or inaction. ”

Med says to (05:54:15):

OK

YOU DIDN’T TELL ME IT WAS ALLAWI’S STRATEGIC COUNSEL FOR POLICY

THAT WE WERE DISCUSSING

THAT MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE

YES IT DOES CREATE A PROBLEM

AND MALIKI KNOWS IT

THE IRAQI LIST HAS BEEN STEADFAST THAT THE COUNSEL WILL BE PUT THROUGH PARLIAMENT AND APPROVED

WITH ALLAWI HAVING EXECUTIVE POWERS

NOW MALIKI IS SAYING WELL WE CAN DRAG IT OUT

IT WON’T HAPPEN

THE IRAQI LIST OWES MALIKI NOTHING

AND THEY DON’T HAVE TO SHOW UP TO MAKE A QUORUM JUST BECAUSE HIS 30 DAYS IS ALMOST UP

AND WITHOUT A QUORUM

NO VOTE IS DONE

SO YES ONCE I KNEW THE FACTS

IT DOES BECOME A PROBLEM

BECAUSE HE MADE AGREEMENTS

WITH THE KURDS AND LIST

TO GET THEM TO support HIS PM

AND BOTH HAVE SAID

EVERYONE WILL BE FULLFILLED

OR THEY WILL NOT VOTE

AND IF MALIKI IS NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THAT

THEN IT IS HIS FAULT

OK ALL DONE

breezin says to (05:58:46):

Thanks so much …. it verified what i was thinking too

Med says to (05:59:16):

NP

BUT WE HAVE DISCUSSED IT MANY TIMES IN HERE

ESPECIALLY

SINCE THE KURDS

GOT SCREWED BAD LAST TIME

WHEN MALIKI MADE PROMISES AND THEN NEVER TALKED TO THE KURDS

AFTER HE GOT IN

SO THEY SAID WHAT HE PROMISED THIS TIME WILL BE DONE

BEFORE THE VOTE

OR THEY WILL BOYCOTT IT ALSO

THAT IS A 161 SEATS

BETWEEN THE KURDS AND LIST

AND THINK ABOUT IT

THIS WOULD BE THE PERFECT PAY BACK FOR ALLAWI

THEM GETTING OUT OF CHAPTER VII

FOR THE MOST PART

HAVING A PARLIAMENT RUN BY ONE OF YOUR OWN

AND THEN PUTTING MALIKI OUT AS PM

BY NOT SHOWING UP

THEN MALIKI IS DONE

TELL YOU

IF IT WAS ME

I WOULD DO IT

IN A HEARTBEAT

AND WE ALL KNOW THIS

PERCEPTION IS KEY HERE

IT IS NOT HOW MALIKI PERCIEVES THIS

AT ALL

IT IS HOW THE IRAQI LIST AND ALLAWI PERCIEVE THIS

THAT WILL DECIDE IF MALIKI GETS THEM TO SHOW UP IF HE DOESN’T GET PARLIAMENT TO VOTE ON THE NEW COUNSEL

AND I AM 99.9% SURE I KNOW WHAT ALLAWI WILL PERCIEVE IT AS

A SCREWING

OK ALL DONE TY

[TimS]

IF this is true...we are screwed AGAIN......there will not be a release from chapter 7 or an RV without a seated gov......if Allawi holds this up so Maliki can fall on his face, we'll be waiting another 6 months for them to re-align their ducks. The December 15th meeting will be all for naught and we can forget about our white christmas.....should have known better to get our hopes up, this is Iraq and they couldn't get thier sh@# together for the last 3000 years....why did we think they could now.

[cgbrown]

So it is not over till "A" and his group says it's over. And if not done to his liking....... it won't get done. 2011 is just around the corner this may just get carried over.

[Halo9678]

JMHO,

I don't think that Maliki will do something THAT brazen so close to the finish line as to slight Allawi. I don't think that Allawi is going to screw the people of Iraq by not playing fair either. The time has come for these guys to act like statesmen and not mud slinging thugs. But that's just me...

[financeminister]

Remember folks, it's Med's opinion, not a fact.

[whatsfordinar?]

the least Iraq should do if this happens is to offer to buy us dinner first..............

[ECSxFenrir]

IF this is true...we are screwed AGAIN......there will not be a release from chapter 7 or an RV without a seated gov......if Allawi holds this up so Maliki can fall on his face, we'll be waiting another 6 months for them to re-align their ducks. The December 15th meeting will be all for naught and we can forget about our white christmas.....should have known better to get our hopes up, this is Iraq and they couldn't get thier sh@# together for the last 3000 years....why did we think they could now.

My question is: why is Maliki so confident?

There is obviously something missing from the articles, rumors etc. He has a trump card that most dont know about. Like even Frank said you can fault Maliki all you want but politically when it comes down to the wire he is a pit bull.

Worse case scenario Maliki is out, Allawi gets in after another 6 months. Glass half full I see Allawi getting a better rate due to government stability that he create that I don't see Maliki capable of. Second that gives me a ton more time to ante up! No white Christmas but a definite cool summer!

A bit of news I heard equaling another reason Iraq needs to push this. they need to be open for business. The oil is just sitting, Saudi Arabia and Baharain are getting their oil stolen. Iraq will be in the same scenario SOON with Iran if hey can't get their ducks in a row.

[lgraham]

IF this is true...we are screwed AGAIN......there will not be a release from chapter 7 or an RV without a seated gov......if Allawi holds this up so Maliki can fall on his face, we'll be waiting another 6 months for them to re-align their ducks. The December 15th meeting will be all for naught and we can forget about our white christmas.....should have known better to get our hopes up, this is Iraq and they couldn't get thier sh@# together for the last 3000 years....why did we think they could now.

Yes this is possible. But the point here is, Maliki had better reach agreement and quickly with Allawi regarding this new position with executive powers. Otherwise. Maliki will fail within his constitutional 30 day period.

Do you really think that this U.N.S.C. meeting would be held and our ambassadors making the statements that they have made if this was not a done deal already?

Anything can happen of course. But because the U.N. has broken this meeting down into 3 seperate items, I believe the sanctions will be lifted.

All the best,

Lgraham

[Legolas]

It seems "likely" that Maliki would be smart enough by now to know better than to screw over Allawi and the Kurds in the 11th hour. Neither is going to agree to the new government without a deal signed or legislation passed guaranteeing the promises made by Maliki. Time is running out, and he's unlikely to get an extension. I think Med is correct in his assessment of the risks. We'll know soon enough. The UN meeting is a week away, and there's much to be accomplished before then. NOTHING would surprise me at this point (except maybe the RV).

[wshflthnkn]

Didnt Maliki set up xtra blocs per party to back his ass up in case Allawi pulled this crap. I think we are still fine.

[deenar]

This isn't going to happen. I highly doubt that the UN would announce that Iraq was going to be released from Chapter 7 before the end of the year if there were any chance of delay in forming the gov.

[bright]

we will have just wait and see what happens.....I know that Chap 7 sanctions have to be lifted and a new government formed.........but as I think of the entire situation we are hoping for...........I don't know which has a worse history of getting something accomplished the UN or Iraq........Iraq by a nose!!!!!!!!!

[Richardk]

IMO this is done and all the news/info/intel out of Iraq is mostly smoke and mirrors. I don't believe the UN would have scheduled this "Major Event" if they weren't sure this would be a possitive move for Iraq.

They are not going to arrive in Iraq, have this "Major Event" to leave with egg on their face.

We are there my friends, just a few more hours or days.

Stay grounded, calm and be happy.

Go RV/RI

[zantac]

JUST TO REPEAT MY SELF ONCE AGAIN

PLEASE READ & TAKE IT IN, GET ON WITH YOUR LIFES, ENJOY THE FESTIVE SEASON & STOP BUILDING YOUR HOPES UP ON CONSTANT BS RUMOURS

IT WILL NOT RV, RI, CHAPTER 7, YAD YAD YAD THIS YEAR.

AS YOU SAY IN AMERICA.

PERIOD

[sidewinder615]

JUST TO REPEAT MY SELF ONCE AGAIN

PLEASE READ & TAKE IT IN, GET ON WITH YOUR LIFES, ENJOY THE FESTIVE SEASON & STOP BUILDING YOUR HOPES UP ON CONSTANT BS RUMOURS

IT WILL NOT RV, RI, CHAPTER 7, YAD YAD YAD THIS YEAR.

AS YOU SAY IN AMERICA.

PERIOD

zantac.......I hope you are wrong, but with the way things have went in the past. I will have to say that the odds are on your side.

[ha ha]

Zantac, you are trying so hard to keep your 20m dinar bet you made. ha ha.we are watching you and the RV situation.

Med never like or support Maliki on all his Iraq political analyses. In his mind, Maliki is a devil and Allawi is a Saint. Folks, don't take whatever Med says as serious.

[frankc]

If I remember right A is friends with Iran. Just who are you for haha?

[vato96]

allawi said he could form the government many times in 3 days so if maliki drops the ball look for allawi to form quickly but no rv until sometime early 2011 I am no guru but this has been posted about allawi so either way be happy that you have your money and we are near the end of this ride

[firefighter_218546]

Remember.... if one guy says it doesn't make it true.. Just because I don't believe it doesn't mean you shouldn't believe it.. It's time for you to believe what you want and not let one person lead you around.

Personaly I think the RV could happen soon but .... ( Who am I to say? )

Go RV

God Bless you all....

This is my 2dinars worth take it for what it is worth..

Bruce

[doc80904]

There are a few things I would like to say here......First of all remember what happens if M does not form and is removed......Absolutely no one will dispute that and to the same degree no one will dispute that M is a survivor. I have always said that M is a very inteligent person. Arrogant, true enough, self centered, without question but very intelligent. I am sure that he knows very well what will happen, I give you as example when he complained that his reduced position was unacceptable. What happened, he bitched and cried but accepted the position without question when he was told to either shut up or get out. He does not stand a chance, and he knows it without the Kurds votes and the support of the list. So what happens.......not a darned thing, he will fold with this as well when he is put under pressure again by being told to either play ball or be given over to the people of Iraq. I am sure he will do anything to avoid that........he is power hungry but not stupid.

Now as for A we cannot loose with him either because, as Medic has said many times, he can seat his gov in three days and that is good enough for me. I for one do not and have not believed an RV would happen this month but very shortly in 2011. The reason is that these people would ***** if they were hung with a new rope and absolutely nothing will make all happy. After working in Iraq for as long as I have I have learned the muslim religion is not happy unless they are fighting, sad as it may be is true all the same. I have seen these people bicker when just going along would have much better results and they knew it at the time. I believe that this will be over in January.......or maybe February at the latest........What with all of their holidays and bickering there is no way for them to do anything that quickly even when they have already agreed as we all know and have known for some time. Everyone please sit back and relax, all that you are doing is going through an emotional roller-coaster and that will do no good for anyone ever. Just sit back and know in your heart and soul that this is done and we are simply waiting for the announcment.

Relax and enjoy.......dont let these people get under your skin.......trust me......they just are not worth it........If I have learned nothing else over here it is that.....

[EBJNYC]

IF this is true...we are screwed AGAIN......there will not be a release from chapter 7 or an RV without a seated gov......if Allawi holds this up so Maliki can fall on his face, we'll be waiting another 6 months for them to re-align their ducks. The December 15th meeting will be all for naught and we can forget about our white christmas.....should have known better to get our hopes up, this is Iraq and they couldn't get thier sh@# together for the last 3000 years....why did we think they could now.

Spare me -- this is EVENT is bigger than OUR investment -- get over it -- it will happen -- PATIENCE !!!!

[Mammaw]

Zantac, chill. It is a chat ...we are chatting....speculating. We appreciate your concern, but don't blow up...not very nice ...esp. considering the season.

Lgraham, totally agree.

Thanks everyone for your positive and informative view on the matter. I appreciate all sides of the coin. I think it will happen soon. But if it doesn't, oh well, gives me more time to purchase more next year.