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IRAQ NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2018-2022

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I Want to share with the DV community this important pdf document I found on the MOP site.

Really good information to understand what iraq is doing.

The National Development Plan:

The NDP focuses on recovery and reconstruction efforts in the directly affected provinces, and on development and investment in the indirectly affected provinces. It attempts to highlight national reform priorities that help address the structural causes that impede development promotion. As such, the NDP is more a policy and programme plan, rather than a project plan focused on improving asset management.

https://mop.gov.iq/en/static/uploads/8/pdf/1545900842d4eeeef48c6122449898d79a86b841fb--خطة التنمية الوطنية (انكليزي).pdf

 

 

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The NDP is guided by four main pillars, which are present throughout its chapters and which represent the main concerns in overcoming the current development challenges, namely:
• Laying the foundations for good governance and associated pillars and components

• Developing the private sector as a vital anchor for progress and development;
• Post-crisis reconstruction and development of affected provinces; and
• Reducing multidimensional poverty in the provinces.

 

II. Economic challenges
1. Poor investment climate. The investment climate continues to deteriorate ,influenced by a combination of political, economic, institutional, legislative, legal and regulatory factors which in turn affect the level of and ability to attract foreign investment. This is evidenced in international indicators: e.g. in 2016, Iraq ranked 165th from 190 countries on the Ease of Doing Business Index and it scored only 27.3 of 100 on the Investment Attraction Index.
2. Disrupted production structure. Between 2010 and 2015, the oil sector remained the main contributor to GDP(actually, it increased from 51.26% to 55.1%), due to the lack of an economic diversification policy .The GDP contribution of both agriculture and manufacturing dropped – respectively from 4.17% and 2.1% in 2010 to 2.02% and 0.84% in 2015.
3. Trade imbalance. The lack of a trade policy that considers the economic conditions required to maintain international competitiveness, the growing imbalance in the GDP structure, and the low exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar have led to (1) a clear trade imbalance ,evidenced in the increase in the oil export to 99% of total Iraqi exports and the high diversification of import structure, and (2) significant economic openness, with the ratio of foreign trade to GDP reaching 50.25% in 2015.

4. Imbalanced budget structure. Oil revenues continue to be the top contributor to public budget revenues – comprising 85.9% of the estimated total income for 2017 (IQD 79.011 trillion). This renders the budget susceptible to external shocks from fluctuating oil prices, internal imbalances of non-oil revenue diversification, and high estimated operational expenditure (IQD 75.217 trillion, or 74.7% of the total estimated budget). In result, the planned deficit of the 2017 Budget amounted to IQD 21.6 trillion.
5. High public debt. The huge reliance on public debt (internal and external) to cover the budget deficit is a constraint on development rather than an alternative to financing the budget from non-oil sources. Additionally, in the absence of coherent and harmonised macroeconomic policies to manage debt efficiently, this debt is a burden for present and future generations. The planned deficit constitutes 21.6% of the estimated budget and it will be financed through internal and external loans. Thus, as of 13/12/2017, the public debt has reached IQD 135851 billion.
6. Underdeveloped banking system. Due to obsolete technologies in use, outdated management methods, redundant administrative staff who fail to keep up with modern technologies, the absence of an enabling environment to deal with customers, and a weak marketing of non-traditional banking products, banks have been unable to keep abreast of modern banking and management systems. This is evidenced in e.g. the high value of doubtful debts (IQD 3079.7 billion in 2015), which has placed a burden on financial stability, with the ratio of credit failures of government banks reaching 67.1%.
7. Large informal sector. Poor private investment resulting from a worsening investment climate has expanded small-scale economic activities that are not controlled by the government and operate outside the public tax and insurance framework. They are not included in GDP calculations and operate at the expense of the activities of the formal economy. Outputs, practices and dealings in the informal sector are uncontrolled at the economic and societal levels.
8. Limited role of the private sector. The deteriorated working and investment environment, slow adoption of (i.e. disregard for) the commodity dumping policy, and lack of participation in the design and implementation of economic policy goals have perpetuated the limited role of the private sector in the development process. In 2015, the private sector contributed barely 44.6% of GDP (at current prices) and 35% of fixed capital formation (at constant prices).

Edited by Laid Back
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22 minutes ago, Rugbylaird19 said:

If there was only something they could do about that low Iraqi Dinar exchange rate...

 

🤔🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

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20 hours ago, Benelli said:

Great find, laid back. 

Thanks Benelli,👍🏼🙂

 

20 hours ago, Rugbylaird19 said:

If there was only something they could do about that low Iraqi Dinar exchange rate...

Thanks for your input Rugbylaird19, 

In my opinion they are laying the foundations to increase the dinar exchange rate.

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Economic growth
The NDP 2018-2022 aims to achieve economic growth rates consistent with those recorded in the past periods based on the country’s physical and human resources, especially by sustaining oil production and exports that guarantee the sustainability of fiscal revenues necessary for other production and service sectors. However, this growth depends on the ability to ensure acceptable levels of employment and job- creation especially for new labour market entrants, and translate this growth into adequate standards of living for all groups while maintaining equity in income distribution, controlling inequality of living standards and fighting administrative and financial corruption as a major barrier to development.
In spite of all recent economic difficulties, particularly in 2014 and 2015 and the subsequent liberation of the territories occupied by ISIS in addition to the reconstruction of affected areas, the Iraqi economy was able to achieve an acceptable average economic growth rate of 6.6% during the period 2010-2015 driven mainly by the continued oil production and export. The growth rate was 6.3% in 2015 and 2016 according to preliminary data.
Based on these data, the target growth rate for the period 2018-2022 was set at about 7% (7.5% for the oil sector and 6.1% for all other non-oil activities: commodity, distribution and services). The Iraqi economy does have stronger growth potential but these rates have been estimated considering the fluctuations of oil prices and the continued terrorist threats and security instability among other factors that may affect the development process in the coming years.

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Government investment:
The estimated government investment during the NDP years amount to 132 trillion dinars (USD 111.7 billion) and constitute about 60% of the total investment required (220.6 trillion dinars), as shown in the above table.


Non-government (private) investment:
The private sector is expected to contribute 88.6 trillion dinars (USD 75 billion) during the NDP years. These represent all private investment activities in Iraq, which constitutes 40% of the total investments required to achieve the target NDP growth rate.


Sector distribution of required investments:
In order to achieve targeted sector growth rates, we list below the estimated investments required annually for each economic sector. The oil sector obviously continues to assume a high percentage of investments (about 38.4% and 84.7 trillion dinars for the period 2018-2022). This reflects the large investments needed by this capital-intensive sector which also needs advanced technology to meet the obligations of international oil companies. The infrastructure sectors (electricity, water, construction, transport and communications) together account for 49.5% of the NDP investments. The electricity and water sector needs 20.2 trillion dinars; the building and reconstruction needs 39.6 trillion dinars to meet the needs in the affected areas in addition to the declining performance of the infrastructure nationwide, with the private sector being the main contributor (about 90% of total investments). The service sector also needs large investments during the NDP years (37.2 trillion dinars or 17% of total estimated investments) to enable it to respond to the citizens’ daily needs. Production and commodity sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) together need only 5.6% due to low capacity, poor technologies, unfair competition from imported goods and poor implementation of relevant measures and decisions.

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Great information Laid Back ... thank you brother..! :twothumbs: 

On 2/18/2020 at 1:15 PM, Laid Back said:

The NDP is guided by four main pillars, which are present throughout its chapters and which represent the main concerns in overcoming the current development challenges, + the original link + your comments.

Ron

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On 2/20/2020 at 8:40 AM, WheresmyRV? said:

Excellent find LB, thank you!

Thanks WheresmyRV? 👍🏼

 

5 hours ago, ronscarpa said:

Great information Laid Back ... thank you brother..! :twothumbs: 

Ron

Thank you brother 🤙🏽

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