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Trump's trade war is economic suicide


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Fake News...Your going to have a problem when 2020 rolls around and more folks then ever will be Voting Donald J. Trump for the POTUS.... 

NOT A REPUBLICAN    NOT A REPUBLICAN  NOT A REPUBLICAN  NOT A REPUBLICAN    These LOOSERS are R.I.N.O.s and establishment HACKS.  THEY ARE ENIMIES of FREEDOM.

I think once the "free ride" ends the entire world economy will be better off. They have be slopping at our trough long enough.

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Yo Snap, talk about selling snow to an Eskimo. 

 

 

3 MIN READ

 

CHICAGO (Reuters) - A private importer in China last week bought U.S. rice for the first time ever, in the midst of a trade war between the two nations, a rice industry group said on Wednesday.

The Chinese importer bought two containers, about 40 tonnes, of medium-grain rice from California-based Sun Valley Rice, said Michael Klein, a spokesman for USA Rice, a trade group that promotes the sale of the U.S. grain.

The U.S. rice was milled and packaged into bags for consumer and food service use, Klein said.

China was a major buyer of U.S. soybeans and pork before the trade war started by the Trump administration. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that China had agreed to make unspecified new purchases of U.S. farm products after he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but purchases of major export crops have so far been elusive.

It was not immediately clear whether the rice purchase was a goodwill gesture following the Trump-Xi meeting. The rice deal follows a sale of 544,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China confirmed last week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the largest such sale since March.

China is the world’s largest rice grower and consumer, producing 148.5 million tonnes of the grain in the 2018/19 marketing year and importing 3.5 million tonnes.

The United States produced 7.1 million tonnes of rice in 2018/19 and exported less than 3 million tonnes.

Chinese officials agreed to allow imports of U.S. rice in July 2017, following years of negotiations. But a nearly year-long trade dispute between the two countries threatened the first sale.

“It looked dicey for us for a while, with the hostility going back and forth ... We were about to have a market, and saw it snatched away, or so we thought,” Klein said.

Sun Valley Rice hopes the deal lays the groundwork for more sales of U.S. rice to China in the future, representatives said.

“Sun Valley has been a leader when it comes to agriculture trade with China, we have been taking the first steps,” said Karen Leland, Sun Valley’s chief marketing officer.

Reporting by Julie Ingwersen and Barbara Smith in Chicago; Editing by Matthew Lewis

 

 

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‘America’s farm safety net is broken. Instead of helping small farmers that have been hurt by the Trump administration’s trade war, Trump’s Agriculture Department is wantonly distributing billions of taxpayer dollars to the largest and wealthiest farms.’
 

Trump vowed to help small farmers, but here’s where the aid is really going

It’s the “fat cats” who are benefiting most from President Trump’s taxpayer bailout to farmers hurt by his trade war, according to Anne Weir Schechinger, a senior analyst with Environmental Working Group.

According to a recent study from the group, “the richest of the rich” — the top 1% — received 13% of the federal payments, or more than $177,000 each. The bottom 80%, on the other hand, got an average payment of $5,136. Three of the “fat cats” received more than $1 million each, while 45 got more than $500,000.

This, Schechinger suggested, doesn’t line up with this Trump promise:

 

Our great Farmers will recieve another major round of “cash,” compliments of China Tariffs, prior to Thanksgiving. The smaller farms and farmers will be big beneficiaries. In the meantime, and as you may have noticed, China is starting to buy big again. Japan deal DONE. Enjoy!

 

The EWG pointed out that the top 10% of recipients — the biggest and most profitable industrial-scale farms in the country — have received half of the $6 billion in aid given since August.

Read: Billionaire West Virginia governor’s family business gets taxpayer-funded subsidy meant to help farmers through the trade war

“The administration’s MFP policies stack the deck against small farmers in favor of the big guys,” Schechinger and her colleagues wrote, adding that, “laughably lax eligibility rules allow cousins, nieces and nephews and far-flung relatives living in cities, with no real connection to farming, to cash government bailout checks. Even Trump 2016 campaign advisors and billionaires are cashing in.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a statement cited by Bloomberg last month, defended the program, saying that the Trump administration “is committed to helping all farmers, regardless of their size, deal with the economic impacts of retaliatory tariffs and unfair trading practices.”

Related: Trump agriculture secretary says during Wisconsin visit that family-run dairy farms may not survive

The USDA estimates that the $14.5 million will help U.S. net farm income climb to its highest total since the commodity boom in 2013.

Meanwhile, on the trade front, Trump on Tuesday again turned up the heat.

“A China trade deal is dependent on one thing — do I want to make it,” Trump said at a London news conference. “I have no deadline, no. In some ways, I think it’s better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth. But I’m not going to say that, I just think that.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects farm income in 2019 to reach $88 billion — the highest net farm income since 2014’s $92 billion, but 29% below 2013’s record high.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-vowed-to-help-small-farmers-but-heres-where-the-aid-is-really-going-2019-12-03?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

 

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  • The trucking industry has been in a recession in 2019.
  • Small trucking companies and owner-operators (truck drivers who work for themselves) have been hardest hit.
  • After an uptick of 700 trucking payrolls in October, the industry slashed another 1,000 jobs in November, according to the monthly jobs report released by the federal government. 
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The trucking industry slashed 1,000 payrolls in November, according to the most recent jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The job cuts come at a time when the trucking industry should be ramping up for the holiday season. Warehousing and storage, for example, added 8,000 jobs last month. And in November 2018, some 4,100 trucking jobs were added.

ACT Research says that America's $800 billion trucking market has been in a recession since early 2019. Freight volumes have declined for 11 straight months. Manufacturing, which tracks the trucking industry, has contracted for four straight months

In the first half of the year, around 640 trucking companies went bankrupt, according to industry data from Broughton Capital LLC. That's more than triple the number of bankruptcies from the same period last year — about 175.

Here's the number of jobs added or removed in 2019:

  • January 2019: 19,100 trucking payrolls added; 1,516,000 total 
  • February: 100 added; 1,516,100 total
  • March: 1,200 removed; 1,514,900 total
  • April: 2,300 added; 1,517,200 total
  • May: 1,800 added; 1,519,000 total
  • June: 1,900 added; 1,520,900 total
  • July: 300 removed; 1,520,600 total
  • August: 5,100 removed; 1,515,500 total
  • September: 2,900 removed; 1,512,600 total
  • October: 700 added; 1,513,300 total
  • November: 1,000 removed; 1,512,300 total

A red flag for the rest of the economy

Everyone from the C-suite to individual truckers are increasingly blaming their woes on an industrial recession — one that's being kicked off by President Donald Trump's trade war.

Read more: 'Bad from every angle': America's trucking recession is now slamming one of the $800 billion industry's largest companies

"We have been in an industrial recession for the last year, and I say that just based on the objective fact that not only us but the entire LTL industry has seen negative tonnage growth in each of the last four quarters," XPO CEO Brad Jacobs said in a call to analysts on October 29. 

trucker

When the rest of America is headed for a downturn, freight usually dips first, a report from Convoy's economic-research division said. The industry went into a recession in April 2006, more than a year before the rest of the economy was clobbered by the Great Recession, starting in January 2008.

A tumble in trucking doesn't always foretell a recession for everyone else. The freight industry goes into recession twice as often as the rest of the economy, according to Convoy.

Regardless, the jobs report reflected an unexpected boost

But the ongoing hit to trucking hasn't seemed to cause the rest of the economy to meaningfully contract. The rest of the jobs report crushed expectations, translating to a 50-year-low in the unemployment rate of 3.5%.

That unexpected boost in payrolls surprised analysts, who have said for months that the economy is slowing down. This year, the US has added an average of 180,000 jobs a month, down from an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018.

Read more: US economy smashes forecasts, adds 266,000 jobs in November

Still, a windfall of jobs isn't necessarily a win for many Americans. A Brookings report recently uncovered that 44% of US workers are in low-wage jobs, earning a median annual salary of $18,000, despite historically low unemployment.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/another-1-000-truck-drivers-184353528.html

 

Gotta love those economic policies...

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CNBC's Jim Cramer today said "It doesn't matter whether you like or hate Trump. These are real numbers. . . You can’t contradict that these are the best numbers of our lives. You can’t. . .
"We are zeroing in on a 3.5% unemployment rate and we've never had it so good."

RSC: We are not tired of winning yet, and America is the clear global leader. We are negotiating from a position of economic strength. It makes no sense to double the size of government and switch to a free stuff socialist agenda.

CNBC: Jim Cramer said Friday no matter your view on President Donald Trump there’s no denying we’re living in the best labor market.
Cramer, 64, reviewed all the positive data following the government report showing the U.S. economy created a better-than-expected 266,000 non-farm jobs in November, with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.5%, matching a 50-year low.
“People don’t want to say good things about the economy, but don't let the negativists and the hucksters scare you away from owning stocks.”
Cramer said “These are the best numbers I’ve ever seen in my life. No recession, no inflation, and we will win the trade war.
"The president can walk away from the table with these numbers. In the end, the Chinese are going to have to put jobs here.”
You can read the full article at the below link.

 
Image may contain: 1 person, text

 

Yepper's....hell did just freeze over when CNBC comes out with the positive.

 

Karsten

 
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CNBC’s Cramer on Jobs Report: ‘These Are the Best Numbers of Our Lives’

18,238
Trent Baker
6 Dec 20191,891
1:11

Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” network anchor Jim Cramer reacted to the announcement that the United States economy added 266,000 jobs for the month of November and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, which match the lowest level in 50 years.

Cramer said the numbers are “the best” he has ever seen in his life

 

“Look, Joe, you and I both know … 50 years, OK. Now I’m 64. I didn’t know about how things were when I was 13 or 14 other than the war, but these are … you can’t contradict that these are the best numbers of our lives,” Cramer told host Joe Kernen. “You can’t. I mean, we had guns and butter when we were doing these things 50 years ago, and that fall with inflation and recession.”

He continued, “I don’t see inflation. I don’t see recession. Fifty years ago that number was a curse. Now it’s a blessing. And you know something, Joe … it doesn’t matter whether you hate them or like them, these are real numbers.”

Follow Trent Baker on Twitter @MagnifiTrent

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I find it interesting that Trump is the ONLY prez who has taken on China for their trade abuses. Liberals don't give a damn about the Chi Coms ripping us off to the tune of 500 billion + dollars EVERY year. As they apply the money to building up their military to dominate the Pacific region. Do any of you anti Trumpers really believe everything can be corrected or fixed without any pain. What are you guys smoking. I realize you guys hate Trump, you have made that abundantly clear. But I loathed Obummer and was not a big fan of W or his old man. And forget about the rapist and child molester Clinton. You will never find a candidate clean and fresh as the driven snow. There was only one man that made that cut and he was crucified. So after 3 years in office Trump has accomplished significantly more than any Prez in my lifetime. So I will cut him a bit of slack. Hell I had to hold my nose to vote for the great hero McCain and Rommney. Both huge swamp dwellers!!! And HOW DARE Trump make 18 - 49 year old singles that are perfectly capable of working get a job to collect their welfare instead of sitting on their a$$es for a government handout. HORRIBLE!!!

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The lunatic fringe of the lefties are thinking that they can steal the elections of more offices in 2020.

But while there salivating at the chance to murder Trump and his supporters and destroy America what they 

are too stupid to realize is that on October 1st 2020 the real I.D. act goes into effect. And I will bet good money that

NO ONE will be allowed to vote without a Real I.D. drivers licences or card. For the first time in a long time 

we will get real results that can not be disputed.

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Farmer who left GOP: Trump 'has failed' at replacing NAFTA

American farmers are in a state of uncertainty as the U.S.-China trade war continues. And that’s not the only thing weighing on their minds: Uncertainty surrounding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is also having a major impact.

“The administration has failed on USMCA — NAFTA 2.0 — while there were needed changes there,” Chris Gibbs, an Ohio soybean farmer who left the GOP after being frustrated with Trump administration policies, told Yahoo Finance. “Keep in mind, NAFTA was built way back before we had cell phones, before we had PCs. So it’s been a long time ago, in digital terms, 1994. We certainly needed updates, but the administration’s failed on that because they never laid the proper groundwork in the House to get it approved.”

The U.S., Mexico, and Canada signed the USMCA, also known as “new NAFTA,” on Nov. 30, 2018 but plans hit a snag as Congress has declined to ratify it. House Democrats reportedly want revisions to the labor, environment, pharmaceutical, and enforcement terms and have been unable to reach a compromise with the Trump administration since then.

Gibbs, 61, argued that the main failure by the current administration was political.

“The Republicans lost 40 seats in the House and lost control,” he said. “Therefore, no guarantee that USMCA is going to get passed. For agriculture, NAFTA was the single best trade deal in my adult lifetime for Midwestern farmers, hands down. Now, certainly there’s argument and discussion on manufacturing and other sectors. I absolutely empathize with that but for Midwestern farmers, that was the single best trade deal for grain farmers, livestock farmers.” 

Chris Gibbs left the GOP after being frustrated with Trump's trade policies. (Photo: Chris Gibbs)

Gibbs is currently exploring the possibility of running for Congress in Ohio’s 4th congressional district as an independent. He would be up against incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Jordan.

“What hasn’t been happening in this district … is that agriculture hasn’t been represented at all, and I think I’m perfectly positioned for that,” he said. “I’ve been in agriculture my whole life, but it isn’t just farmers — because if you’re representing agriculture, you’re representing rural communities, because rural communities are built on agriculture. We’re the ones that take care of the hardware store, the feed store, the local used truck store, the local new truck store, the fuel store. We pay the property taxes for schools, and so we’re the heart of rural communities, and those folks need a voice.”

‘Agriculture is a national security interest’

Despite the partisan issues behind the ratification of USMCA, Gibbs doesn’t feel animosity towards the House Democrats. His frustration lies with President Trump and the fact that agriculture was put into such a situation to begin with. 

“I believe that agriculture is a national security interest, hands down, and it should be treated that way,” Gibbs said. “It should be the same third rail of American politics that Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid is. Don’t touch it. And my life’s mission from here on out is to ensure that agriculture is never, ever put front and center in a geopolitical war again, like we’ve seen now.” 

He continued: “I lived through it in 1980, when Jimmy Carter embargoed grain to the USSR, and now I’m living through it again, where agriculture was put on the front lines, and that should never, ever happen again.”

Soybean farmers watch as a truck is loaded for transport in Delaware, Ohio, on Tuesday, May 14, 2019. (Photo: AP Photo/Angie Wang)

According to Gibbs, the Trump administration has failed on three specific areas — the failure to pass USMCA, the ***-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war, and removing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

“They failed in the TPP by removing the United States from it,” Gibbs said. “Those countries move on. Now, we’ve lost two years of expanded trade with essentially Pacific Rim countries. And while we made a partial trade agreement with Japan, that only got us back to what we would have had under the TPP two years ago.” 

He added that the U.S. should “get rid of all of these tariffs,” he said. “They’ve just got to go, and that’s what I’d be pushing for. We have to get back to free trade. We have to get back to trade without retaliatory tariffs. And we have to get back to trade without punitive tariffs that the United States has put on. This is not the way to do this. The way to do it is through allies, is through building a coalition of allies.” 

‘Nothing gets done’

As his comments suggest, Gibbs left the GOP after being frustrated specifically with President Trump’s stance on China in regards to trade and agriculture policies.

“I spent a number of years in politics, and I come from the era of Reagan and Bush Republicanism, when being a Republican was about statesmanship and diplomacy and American exceptionalism,” he said. “And what I see today, in the division and derision between the parties, is just parties moving to a fortress. Each of them has moved to their fortress, and they use the party structure to do nothing but lob insults and bombs out to the others and nothing gets done.”

President Donald Trump, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto, left, participate in the USMCA signing ceremony. (Photo: AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Should Gibbs decide to run for Congress and win the election, the first thing he wants to do is “pull back the authority” for a president to use Section 232 of the trade law to “punish other countries.”

“We have to take care of these other farmers,” Gibbs said. “Farmers are a national security interest. ... We have safety net programs already built into the 2018 farm bill that are adequate, including crop insurance and so forth. But the tariff money is completely an anomaly because this is a self-inflicted pain. So, we have to quit that.”

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/chris-gibbs-new-nafta-171521552.html

 

 

 

No deal with North Korea, no deal with China, no NAFTA deal, the world leaders laughing at him. What a nightmare.

 

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Right you are nstoolman, the DemoRats have held up many many good pieces of legislation that would have made our country even stronger and greater. But when you want to rule over the population like they do you will do anything. even destroy the country to get your way. And the morons that support the Rat party think everything will be find with them running the show under SOCIALISM. DON'T THINK SO!!

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On 7/18/2019 at 1:32 PM, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

Yeah, and the trucking industry is going bankrupt :facepalm1:

  •  

  • An American trucking giant is slated to declare bankruptcy — and it may leave more than 3,200 truck drivers stranded and jobless

  • Trucking giant Celadon is declaring bankruptcy this week, inside sources told FreightWaves on Dec. 6.

  • It's poised to be the largest truckload bankruptcy in history.

  • The bankruptcy has the potential to leave more than 3,200 truck drivers stranded and away from home.

  • Numerous Facebook groups have been set up to help stranded Celadon truck drivers connect to others.

  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The trucking "bloodbath" of 2019 is ending on a remarkably sour note.

Celadon, a truckload carrier that grossed $1 billion as recently as 2015, will file for bankruptcy on Dec. 11 or earlier, inside sources told leading industry publication FreightWaves on Dec. 6.

It's poised to be the largest truckload bankruptcy in history — and its drivers are already getting slammed. 

Read more: Truckers can't pay off their fuel cards — and it's a 'sure sign' that more trucking bankruptcies are coming

The bankruptcy has the potential to leave more than 3,200 truck drivers stranded and away from home. Sources told Business Insider that Celadon truck drivers' fuel cards are already getting turned off, which means they're unable to get home without spending serious cash on gas or arranging their own transport by car, plane, or bus.

An internal source confirmed to FreightWaves that the company may not be able to get drivers home on time, and encouraged them to fill their tanks as soon as possible. 

Numerous Facebook groups have been set up to help stranded Celadon truck drivers connect to others, including Celadon Closure Assistance and Jobs. Celadon did not immediately respond to a Business Insider request for comment. 

2019 has been a challenging year for truck drivers and their employers. In the first half of the year, about 640 trucking companies went bankrupt, according to industry data from Broughton Capital LLC. That's more than triple the number of bankruptcies from the same period last year — about 175.

Read more: Another 1,000 truck drivers lost their jobs in November, and it's a chilling sign for the economy 

ACT Research said America's $800 billion trucking market has been in a recession since early 2019. Freight volumes have declined for 11 straight months. Manufacturing, which tracks the trucking industry, has contracted for four straight months

However, the source of Celadon's troubles dates back further than 2019. On Dec. 5, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged two former Celadon executives following a multi-year accounting scandal. The alleged fraud resulted in shareholder loss of more than $60 million.

That plunged Celadon's stock to 41 cents a share on Friday — a considerable tumble from the high $20s per share that the stock was worth in 2015 before the accounting scandal became public knowledge.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/american-trucking-giant-slated-declare-014023461.html

 

 

What recession?

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7 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

it may leave more than 3,200 truck drivers stranded and jobless

This is what happens when you become use to telling lies and being deceitful. Poorly run companies go belly up all the time, like yours seems to have done or else where's the picture?

But those driver's will have another job by sundown. 

 

TRUCK DRIVER SHORTAGE 

 

In 2018, the shortage of truck drivers was 60,800, which is a record high and up more than 10,000 from the prior year. In 2019, we expect the shortage to decrease to 59,500, slightly below its highest level in 2018. The forecast for a decrease this year is due to a couple of reasons.

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1 hour ago, ladyGrace'sDaddy said:

This is what happens when you become use to telling lies and being deceitful. Poorly run companies go belly up all the time, like yours seems to have done or else where's the picture?

But those driver's will have another job by sundown. 

 

TRUCK DRIVER SHORTAGE 

 

In 2018, the shortage of truck drivers was 60,800, which is a record high and up more than 10,000 from the prior year. In 2019, we expect the shortage to decrease to 59,500, slightly below its highest level in 2018. The forecast for a decrease this year is due to a couple of reasons.

 

This isn't about the trade war, but I thought you would find this interesting

 

 

The founder of $1 billion self-driving truck firm TuSimple says human truckers having to spend hours on the road is a 'tarnish on the glory of humanity'

The founder of self-driving truck unicorn TuSimple says that human truck drivers being required to work long hours on the road is a "tarnish on the glory of humanity."

Xiaodi Hou is the founder, president and chief technology officer of TuSimple, which develops tech for automating long-haul truck journeys without human intervention needed. The self-driving trucks still have a human truck driver and an engineer present at all times, as a failsafe.

The company is based in San Diego, California, and splits its operations with China. The firm's US presence comprises offices in San Diego, California and Tucson, Arizona, from which it oversees its long-haul US operations.

It also boasts offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Fukuoka, Japan. Hou said he will expand its presence further in the next two to three years – a goal he said stemmed from "the confidence of our general stability."

Founded in 2015, TuSimple has enjoyed huge investor interest. It was valued at just over $1 billion after a $95 million Series D fundraise in February. It went on to add a further $120 million, bringing the round to $215 million. Its backers include global delivery giant UPS, US chipmaker Nvidia, and Chinese tech firm Sina, owner of Weibo.

Though TuSimple currently retrofits existing trucks for pre-existing truck companies, it aims to have a factory-produced self-driving truck on the road by 2023.

TuSimple doesn't think it will completely replace drivers with self-driving trucks

Speaking to Business Insider, Hou was asked how he'd respond to truckers who (rightly or wrongly) fear that their jobs are at risk.

"This is my first time responding to this question in English, but here goes," he said. "To drive a truck for 11 hours per day, without even taking a shower every day, and getting far away from their home, is really a tarnish on the glory of humanity.

"You don't hire chimney sweeps nowadays, and people don't harvest the way they did 500 years ago."

Asked what he'd say to those truckers who value the work, Hou said his company complements – and doesn't compete with – the traditional trucking industry.

"The transition is actually slower than you thought," he explained. "The transition is not like, 'tomorrow, all of sudden, trucks will be autonomously driven.' It's not like that. Autonomous driving is more likely to involve the retrofitting of existing trucks rather than the building of new trucks.

tusimple
tusimple

"It'll be a very gradual thing, and truck drivers still need to [drive] trucks. Think about the gap we have [in terms of] truck driver shortage. The average truck driver age is 51. I don't think even [on] a very optimistic view, we can fill up that gap within the time frame it needs to be filled."

According to a July 2019 report by the American Trucking Associations, the US trucking industry was 60,000 drivers short of the number required to meet industry needs in 2018, up nearly 20% from 2017's shortage of 50,700.

"Secondly, we don't actually think self-driving trucks are going to deprive any truck drivers [of their jobs]," Hou continued. "I don't think we're going to be enemies of the truck drivers. We're actually very good friends with the American Trucking Associations.

"We're helping the associations to solve problems that they can't solve alone, by themselves."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/founder-1-billion-self-driving-100000785.html

 

 

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25 minutes ago, bostonangler said:

This isn't about the trade war, but I thought you would find this interesting

It's also an irrelevant response to my post. Not to mention that your irrelevant response does talk about the shortage of truckers. 

So where's the picture of that bitness you own? 

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  • 4 weeks later...

 

Trump's tariffs are backfiring on the U.S., Fed finds

new study from the Federal Reserve found that President Trump’s tariffs are backfiring.

According to the Fed study, the tariffs that went into effect in 2018 have led to not only higher producer prices but also a loss of jobs across the U.S. — particularly in manufacturing. A previous analysis also found that tariffs have cost the U.S. $42 billion so far.

“In terms of manufacturing employment, rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs each contribute to the negative relationship, and the contribution from these channels more than offsets a small positive effect from import protection,” the new Fed study stated. “For producer prices, the relative increases associated with tariffs are due solely to the rising input cost channel. We find little evidence for a relationship between industrial production and any of the three tariff channels considered.”

President Donald Trump speaks to 5000 contractors at the Shell Chemicals Petrochemical Complex on August 13, 2019 in Monaca, Pennsylvania. (Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
President Donald Trump speaks to 5000 contractors at the Shell Chemicals Petrochemical Complex on August 13, 2019 in Monaca, Pennsylvania. (Photo: Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

‘You cannot simply raise tariffs’

Back in December 2018, Trump tweeted: “Almost 500,000 Manufacturing Jobs created since I won the Election. Remember when my opponents were saying that we couldn’t create this type of job anymore. Wrong, in fact these are among our best and most important jobs!”

However, the ***-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China have thrown a wrench in his plans to revitalize the manufacturing sector.

“While the longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here, the results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector,” the Fed study stated.

According to the study, the industries hardest hit by the retaliatory tariffs from China include producers of aluminum sheet, iron and steel, motor vehicles, household appliances, and computer and other electronic equipment.

Manufacturing is the industry hit hardest by the 2018 tariffs. (Photo: Federal Reserve)
Manufacturing is the industry hit hardest by the 2018 tariffs. (Photo: Federal Reserve)

Doug Barry, senior director of communications and publications for the U.S.-China Business Council (USCBC), told Yahoo Finance that the findings came as no surprise. 

“They reflect what we have been hearing anecdotally for quite some time,” he said. “As the report authors note, in an era of globally interconnected supply chains, you cannot simply raise tariffs on imports to protect domestic manufacturing because a lot of those imports are actually intermediate goods that domestic manufacturers need.”

The Fed study noted this as well and highlighted that the retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners offset any positive gains that came from reduced competition. 

“These retaliatory tariffs may harm U.S. manufacturers by decreasing their competitiveness in foreign markets,” the Fed study said. 

According to the USCBC, exports to China support over 1.1 million American jobs. Factory workers have particularly bearing the brunt of the retaliatory tariffs from China — the October 2019 job report highlighted the contraction in total factory payrolls, “which not only increases price for companies but also causes investment uncertainty,” according to Bloomberg

‘The consequences will be very bad’

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump stands with Carrier worker Sadieka Alexander while touring a carrier factory in Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S. (Photo: REUTERS/Mike Segar)
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump stands with Carrier worker Sadieka Alexander while touring a carrier factory in Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S. (Photo: REUTERS/Mike Segar)

Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, mostly shrugged off the Fed study findings, saying that it looks “increasingly like the U.S.-China trade war was all smoke and no fire.” However, he did note one issue that is still at play. 

“The biggest risk to the economy is the uncertainty caused by the confusion about how long the trade war might last,” he told Yahoo Finance. “Companies don’t tend to undertake new projects or expand their businesses during uncertain times and so investment spending that drives GDP can suffer.”

According to the Tax Foundation, GDP has shrunk by 0.55% as a result of the trade war. But for now, “the coast is clear,” Rupkey said, because of the phase one trade deal.

“The major hit to the economy was going to take place if the Trump administration went all in with 30% tariffs on $540 billion of goods that America imported from China in 2018,” he said. “That tariff tax would have braked economic growth hard from a 2% forecast in 2020 to just 1.1 or 1.2%.”

Despite the first step towards a trade resolution, Barry is firm in his stance that trade relations between the U.S. and China need to resume for the good of the American economy.

“People who advocate decoupling the U.S. and China economies should realize that the consequences will be very bad for U.S. businesses and workers,” Barry said.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-tariffs-are-backfiring-fed-154909223.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9maW5hbmNlLnlhaG9vLmNvbS9wb3J0Zm9saW8vcGZfMS92aWV3L3YxP2d1Y2VfcmVmZXJyZXI9YUhSMGNITTZMeTltYVc1aGJtTmxMbmxoYUc5dkxtTnZiUzl3YjNKMFptOXNhVzh2Y0daZk1TOTJhV1YzJmd1Y2VfcmVmZXJyZXJfc2lnPUFRQUFBQ0lUQzBsNTVFVEFYamV5cjFKZ2hnRTBTQ1NlbE5kR0FKdUVLeXZxZVNJSzI4QkFyc0dtMUE0R1BRRDBMNW52bDEyTDhhTGZZUW03TllSQVlfT3JzX3hGeFpBNnBxSHl3LWNXU3haT3BUSVVVXzQ4UkJlbFdqN0pPeUFIdkpJUkx2TllBVTZUeS11OVAyT1F5YThVbnJhLXhETkVkNWJXSkdyLURBb042S2hzJmd1Y2NvdW50ZXI9Mg&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFa9bsWkJ5zM-QW35PtWhr1B6pXIXjfyU8v7u2mcwRaM32v8hd_n6AcmVws8MJwEGUAp6NhcnlAJ_LVSkzPc2NAOVy6PRwLXuYRmLrqZly0tEtoJMNa11mpWeRVwm9G1DXgq09f7yW1_XSDe2E4M2sBA9BGwpz83I2Mw1nhytkqG

 

 

 

 

It's basic economics really...

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50 minutes ago, nstoolman1 said:

I for one would always trust the Fed when it comes to our best interests.        Not

 

I agree the FED is a private bank and who trusts a bankster? But the numbers are pretty simple. Unemployment is low but the jobs created are low paying service jobs... Debt is at all time highs. Consumer and government debt are going to cause a lot of hurt and tariffs aren't helping. Phase one of the trade war still isn't signed off and who knows what happens next...

 

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