Iraq will return to the market Mid-2016!

[rockfl9]

This only means that Iraq will resume issuing BONDS mid 2016.

It will have run out of IMF loans .

Will have no choice but to pay whatever interest rate they can get..

The IMF only loans with strings attached.  The IMF will monitor 24/7. I dont think they will go along with a big lottery payout (RV) .

The treasury must be close to exhausted. If you compute the daily oil sales it would average out to $173M +/-. That means when the auction(sale) of dollars exceeds that amount  they are taking somewhere else? The reserves???? 

 

 

[Antietam]

Well Rockfl9, I wondered where all you lobsters went to. I even started a post down here looking for you guys, but got my head handed to me by lots of folks who do not like you people very much. I own dinars, but have always enjoyed the lively debates held down here and I have never felt it was a threat to my prosperity. I have changed my investment strategy based on the facts on the ground over there, but it wasn't due to lobster talk. 2015 is very different than 2009, when I thought an RV was going to happen at any minute. Now, I just wait for some good news that could lead to an improvement in that darn 1166 peg. Let's hope it is forthcoming.

[Texstorm]

We are still waiting for The Great Debate ! Maybe y'all are too much alike to orchestrate one ! LOL ..........Sorry Rock I couldn't resist !

[rockfl9]

Antietam: You are brave. Thanks for the company. Careful you dont end up a permanent resident!

RVers dont like to be reminded of the risk they have taken. They dont like non-believers.

The GOI is loosing money supporting the 1166 peg. 

 

Texstorm! I'm ready for the debate. WHO is going to step up to the task and explain HOW and WHY the CBI would RV the dinar????

They cant afford it .. Maybe an even tenth of a cent .  Makes for an easier conversion . That's all. Not going to make a profit with that.

[Texstorm]

Why don't you ask your new partner he says he believes. It won't be long and he will be a permanent resident down there. lOL

[caz1104]

Tex, LOL just another old & tired LOP strategy.........one pretends to believe in a possible RV while the other plays...........himself. The debate usually plays out as to be expected with both really only presenting PRO-LOPster beliefs and the debate outcome is already pre-determined. Almost like REALITY TV not really being reality. Tho my guess is Reality Tv might be more honest & believable. The charade continues.

Edited October 29, 2015 by caz1104

[Antietam]

Rockfl9, I recognize that you are a lobster. You have little to zero faith in the dinar rising in value. I understand your reasons for that position. But I still believe that with a little luck ( republican president), stability can return to iraq which will then be manifested in foreign investments and higher oil prices. If iraq can get some corporations going over there and start manufacturing some things they wouldn't be relying on fossil fuels to bail out their economy. The IMF is considering another loan to iraq in 2016. If the IMF is still Loaning money to iraq, I do not believe the CBI could RV the dinar. With what? We must be patient. I'VE said this before. We cannot deny the circumstances on the ground over there right now. They need some time to push out ISIS and restore confidence. Then we should see some profit off this thing. I know this is not a popular opinion here, but it doesn't make me a lobster in any form or fashion. Lobsters don't own dinars. Why would they?

[Texstorm]

Tex, LOL just another old & tired LOP strategy.........one pretends to believe in a possible RV while the other plays...........himself. The debate usually plays out as to be expected with both really only presenting PRO-LOPster beliefs and the debate outcome is already pre-determined. Almost like REALITY TV not really being reality. Tho my guess is Reality Tv might be more honest & believable. The charade continues.

. I know ......right !

[rockfl9]

Tex, LOL just another old & tired LOP strategy.........one pretends to believe in a possible RV while the other plays...........himself. The debate usually plays out as to be expected with both really only presenting PRO-LOPster beliefs and the debate outcome is already pre-determined. Almost like REALITY TV not really being reality. Tho my guess is Reality Tv might be more honest & believable. The charade continues.

Caz, I guess the one playing himself is me. Contrary to the RVers at least the Lopster/NOrver can at least articulate the reasons.

Iraq will be BROKE by 7/16.  

Will remain in the RED until oil goes above $100/bbl which may only be in the distant future.

IF they ever intended Infidels to profit from appreciation in the dinar (which I doubt) it will be impossible for at least 10 more years!

The Iraq of today will not last 10 years. We will have the Kurdish Republic and a very unstable Bagdadistan.

A default will put them over the brink.

If you would like a debate , there it is.

[easyrider]

Caz, I guess the one playing himself is me. Contrary to the RVers at least the Lopster/NOrver can at least articulate the reasons.

Iraq will be BROKE by 7/16.  

Will remain in the RED until oil goes above $100/bbl which may only be in the distant future.

IF they ever intended Infidels to profit from appreciation in the dinar (which I doubt) it will be impossible for at least 10 more years!

The Iraq of today will not last 10 years. We will have the Kurdish Republic and a very unstable Bagdadistan.

A default will put them over the brink.

If you would like a debate , there it is.

 

Caz, I guess the one playing himself is me. Contrary to the RVers at least the Lopster/NOrver can at least articulate the reasons.

Iraq will be BROKE by 7/16.  

Will remain in the RED until oil goes above $100/bbl which may only be in the distant future.

IF they ever intended Infidels to profit from appreciation in the dinar (which I doubt) it will be impossible for at least 10 more years!

The Iraq of today will not last 10 years. We will have the Kurdish Republic and a very unstable Bagdadistan.

A default will put them over the brink.

If you would like a debate , there it is.

You say Iraq will be broke every year for the past couple of years i see your moving your window yet again to 2017 you are no better than a guru.  Good luck Rock you may need to put the keyboard away for good on DV it seems your predictions are crushing your credibility lol Also that is NO debate that is another one of your arrogant predictions that wil prove to be wrong yet again.

Edited October 30, 2015 by easyrider

[RV on my mind]

I'm a lopster, I own Dinar. I just got frustrated and posted some things that landed me here. (A lot of things) LOL! I still believe in an RV, I'm now just reading the News/Dinar section to keep up to speed on what's happening over there. I hate to see Iraq in so much turmoil knowing that is has postponed any type of RV, wether it be little of large for what could be many more years. I'm just waiting!  

[coorslite21]

Just a thought for you Rock.  You state that Iraq cannot prosper unless oil is priced at a hundred bucks a barrel.  Can you give us some supporting information on that statement?

 

I would suggest you visit this link from Knoema.  You will learn that it costs Iraq $6.00 to produce a barrel of oil.  Lots of other very educational stuff on the site…….click around it if you have an interest.  I think it’s rather informative. 

 

Why would you think oil needs to be at $100 USD per barrel for Iraq to make money ?

 

 

http://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country

 

 

 

Gold is next.  Please go to the World Bank link below.  Iraq has a huge gold reserve and what they have posted here doesn’t include the latest 36 tonnes they purchased recently.  See where Iraq is in comparison to other countries.  (pretty high)

 

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2014+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc

 

 

Then take that (gold reserves) and compare it to the  GDP’s and GNP’s of Iraq.  Do this for all of the countries if you want to get a better snap shot of how well a country is doing.

 

 

To find this information you will have to read:  Reforming the International Financial System for Development.          

 

A link is below.

 

 

https://books.google.com/books?id=shXx4uNxtq0C&pg=PT412&lpg=PT412&dq=nations+GDp+vs+gold+reserves+held&source=bl&ots=-XiejTFqW4&sig=VdIOv8spWFqLCVizJUMLTdozRfQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CFoQ6AEwCWoVChMIkoiFnObqyAIVRKseCh0segvF#v=onepage&q=nations%20GDp%20vs%20gold%20reserves%20held&f=false

 

 

I will agree with you on Iraq not wanting the “infidels” to get a dime.  But this is all bigger than that line of thought.

 

Take some time and read the provided links.  You might change your mind on the timing, as well as this LOP thought process.  

 

You may just make a profit sooner than you think??

 

 

These numbers don't lie........IMHO

 

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

This last link may take some time to load depending on what system you're running......you may need to google:

     

  Reforming the International Financial System for Development

 By Jomo Sundaram

Edited October 30, 2015 by coorslite21

[Antietam]

Coors, if things are so rosey in iraq right now why is the IMF AND the WB bailing their economy out with loans.? Why has their reserve dropped from 86 billion to 45 billion. If you think that is good news, you are just in plain denial of the circumstances over there. And that's no lobster talk, that's just plain reality. I'm no lobster, and I really want to make some money on my dinars, but even a blind man can see that the political situation is very bad currently. Their budget tanked when oil dropped from 90 to 45 dollars a barrel and the drain of their poorly run campaign against ISIS which holds a third of their country have created a dismal RV picture right now. We must hope for better news in the future.

Edited October 31, 2015 by Antietam

[coorslite21]

Antie

 

First off I was addressing a statement made by Rock.  He stated that Iraq would not make any money on the oil they had until oil reached a price of $100 USD per barrel.  Do you agree with him on that.  I provided a link with some pretty strong evidence against that.  Did you take the time to click on the link and read any of it?

 

You certainly are entitled to your opinions, but this is the second time in a week you have decided you needed to correct me on mine.

 

You state:

 

“Coors, if things are so rosey in iraq right now why is the IMF AND the WB bailing their economy out with loans”

 

Do you think these loans would be made if the IMF and WB thought Iraq would be unable to pay them back??

 

I don’t believe I ever mentioned things are “rosey” in Iraq.  I do believe things are better that the US main stream media makes them out to be.  I get much of my news from unfiltered sites that are the media centers directly reporting from in country sources.  It’s amazing what a different slant even the BBC has on the news compared to the US media. Then look at Syria, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and Iraq.  Google and Bing have translation programs for them that are easy to use.

 

What sources are you using to shape your opinions?  I added links for mine.

 

Why do you choose to be so inflammatory with your statements on my opinions?

 

You write:

 

“you are just in plain denial of the circumstances over there”

 

“even a blind man can see that the political situation is very bad currently”

 

I hope you will take a look at what you’re going to post before you hit enter.  For the most part trying to agitate, or stir the pot doesn’t go well here on DV.  I wish you well.

[Texstorm]

I'm a lopster, I own Dinar. I just got frustrated and posted some things that landed me here. (A lot of things) LOL! I still believe in an RV, I'm now just reading the News/Dinar section to keep up to speed on what's happening over there. I hate to see Iraq in so much turmoil knowing that is has postponed any type of RV, wether it be little of large for what could be many more years. I'm just waiting!  

I believe you RV , you are still on my friend list and I understand your frustration, I will try and get you back up on deck. Don't give up !

Antie

 

First off I was addressing a statement made by Rock.  He stated that Iraq would not make any money on the oil they had until oil reached a price of $100 USD per barrel.  Do you agree with him on that.  I provided a link with some pretty strong evidence against that.  Did you take the time to click on the link and read any of it?

 

You certainly are entitled to your opinions, but this is the second time in a week you have decided you needed to correct me on mine.

 

You state:

 

“Coors, if things are so rosey in iraq right now why is the IMF AND the WB bailing their economy out with loans”

 

Do you think these loans would be made if the IMF and WB thought Iraq would be unable to pay them back??

 

I don’t believe I ever mentioned things are “rosey” in Iraq.  I do believe things are better that the US main stream media makes them out to be.  I get much of my news from unfiltered sites that are the media centers directly reporting from in country sources.  It’s amazing what a different slant even the BBC has on the news compared to the US media. Then look at Syria, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and Iraq.  Google and Bing have translation programs for them that are easy to use.

 

What sources are you using to shape your opinions?  I added links for mine.

 

Why do you choose to be so inflammatory with your statements on my opinions?

 

You write:

 

“you are just in plain denial of the circumstances over there”

 

“even a blind man can see that the political situation is very bad currently”

 

I hope you will take a look at what you’re going to post before you hit enter.  For the most part trying to agitate, or stir the pot doesn’t go well here on DV.  I wish you well.

Amen Coors ! I saw that a long time ago, so did Caz !

[rockfl9]

Coors:  In your link the key figure to look at is the "price to break even " , for Iraq it is $106 !!!!! That is the price Iraq must get to balance the budget. And the data is more than a year old. So it probably didnt take into consideration the cuts they made in 2014/5. 

 

It is hard to get factual numbers but it is obvious to me that Iraq has resorted to dipping into reserves to stay afloat. They admit the war is costing 10 mil USD a day.  That is in addition to the dollars sold thru the CBI.

 

In case you missed it, the small loan program is actually using the CBI reserves that are supposed to be backing the dinar!  It is a legitimate use but we know some of those businesses will fail and not repay the loans.

 

The IMF/WB don't really expect to be paid back in any certain time .  Given its size the WB could write off 5 or 10 Billion if it came to that. It is welfare. Hopefully the IMF team will be able to take over and reverse the trend. 

[rockfl9]

Coors:: The link shows the break even for Iraq at $116/bbl.  That is 2013 data. Given the projects they cancelled and other cuts it is probably lower today but still above $100. I dont see oil at $100 for at least  5 years at best.

 

 

Interest payments on the old loans are due Jan 1 and July 1.. If forced to default it will tell how bad things are!

[Antietam]

Coors, my comment of even a blind man can see the situation over there is generic in nature, not pointed at you, unless of course, you refuse to face the reality of the geopolitics over there. It is not meant to belittle you at all. But I do wonder why you continue to see iraq through such a position of optimism right now. Maybe you are just a happy person. I am a realist. It sucks over there. I hope it gets better, but I have to say that rockfl9's facts about iraq's budget and the price of oil necessary to maintain it ($109 a barrel) would seem to dash some ice water on your optimism. Maybe not. But rockfl9's facts seem to support iraq's near bankruptcy much more closely than yours. You can still believe in the dinar making us money without giving up your right to discussing a real sitrep of the Iraqi quagmire. And that's no lobster talk. That's just the way it is right now over there.

[coorslite21]

Rock,

 

Very good, you get the gold star for at least clicking the first link and looking at first chart.  That first chart indicates what you state……actually you missed it low by $10……it shows $116 as a break even.  There is more to that site than the one chart.  Look for the formula.

 

That chart you mention shows every country on it is losing big money on their oil energy.  Oil is the blood stream of the world economy.  Using only that chart why hasn’t the entire world economy imploded at this point?  Everyone is losing large.   Look for the formula.

 

Add to that the other links posted.  If you take the time, you will understand.

 

I believe I do understand your line of thought.  IMO though, there is much more involved than we are being shown on the surface.  Understanding the nuances of world economics is complicated.  I wish I understood it better.  I encourage you to keep researching.  Enjoy your weekend!

[coorslite21]

Coors, my comment of even a blind man can see the situation over there is generic in nature, not pointed at you, unless of course, you refuse to face the reality of the geopolitics over there. It is not meant to belittle you at all. But I do wonder why you continue to see iraq through such a position of optimism right now. Maybe you are just a happy person. I am a realist. It sucks over there. I hope it gets better, but I have to say that rockfl9's facts about iraq's budget and the price of oil necessary to maintain it ($109 a barrel) would seem to dash some ice water on your optimism. Maybe not. But rockfl9's facts seem to support iraq's near bankruptcy much more closely than yours. You can still believe in the dinar making us money without giving up your right to discussing a real sitrep of the Iraqi quagmire. And that's no lobster talk. That's just the way it is right now over there.

 

 

Perhaps my glass of ice water is half full, and yours is half empty.  You may consider putting the dinar you have in a sock drawer and live life as you have been.  This might reduce the stress you seem to have with your involvement with this investment.  

 

Back to my day......hope you enjoy yours!!

[rockfl9]

Rock,

 

Very good, you get the gold star for at least clicking the first link and looking at first chart.  That first chart indicates what you state……actually you missed it low by $10……it shows $116 as a break even.  There is more to that site than the one chart.  Look for the formula.

 

That chart you mention shows every country on it is losing big money on their oil energy.  Oil is the blood stream of the world economy.  Using only that chart why hasn’t the entire world economy imploded at this point?  Everyone is losing large.   Look for the formula.

 

Add to that the other links posted.  If you take the time, you will understand.

 

I believe I do understand your line of thought.  IMO though, there is much more involved than we are being shown on the surface.  Understanding the nuances of world economics is complicated.  I wish I understood it better.  I encourage you to keep researching.  Enjoy your weekend!

You may have missed the IMF report that all the ME (oil dependent ) countries are or will soon be in financial trouble.  Kuwait and SA have already issued bonds. They may not need the money now BUT if they dont issue them now may not be able to in the future.

Only the OIL countries are at risk. The rest of the world is having a party. I've seen gas prices as low as $1.75.

Countries like Iraq must sell oil for dollars at any price, they have no alternate source of income . 90% of their economy. 

They cant stop or slow down.People will starve.

My RESEARCH is mainly trying to figure out WHY so many people still think there will be a profit from holding on to the IQD.

[Texstorm]

You may have missed the IMF report that all the ME (oil dependent ) countries are or will soon be in financial trouble.  Kuwait and SA have already issued bonds. They may not need the money now BUT if they dont issue them now may not be able to in the future.

Only the OIL countries are at risk. The rest of the world is having a party. I've seen gas prices as low as $1.75.

Countries like Iraq must sell oil for dollars at any price, they have no alternate source of income . 90% of their economy. 

They cant stop or slow down.People will starve.

My RESEARCH is mainly trying to figure out WHY so many people still think there will be a profit from holding on to the IQD.

Why do you research holders of the IQD Rock , we are believers and you are not it's just that simple , I guess it's that way with your opinions because you have nothing to lose, nothing !  

[coorslite21]

You may have missed the IMF report that all the ME (oil dependent ) countries are or will soon be in financial trouble.  Kuwait and SA have already issued bonds. They may not need the money now BUT if they dont issue them now may not be able to in the future.

Only the OIL countries are at risk. The rest of the world is having a party. I've seen gas prices as low as $1.75.

Countries like Iraq must sell oil for dollars at any price, they have no alternate source of income . 90% of their economy. 

They cant stop or slow down.People will starve.

My RESEARCH is mainly trying to figure out WHY so many people still think there will be a profit from holding on to the IQD.

 

 

Thanks for the straight forward reply.  I appreciate that.  

 

I think I understand now.  I think if you are only looking at Iraq and the IQD, like most are, that may be what you are missing. 

 

Previously I have posted thoughts on this that you should be able to look up here on DV if you have an interest.

 

2010-12 Iraq was kind of a stand-alone proposition for some degree of revaluation.  Problem was that in 2010 the world came together and concluded that the US and many others were taking the world down with their fiat/financial activities. 

 

In 2010 the IMF reforms were initiated and the world agreed to take part.  The US never followed thru on that commitment.  After much patience the world is now by passing the US system, petro dollar and the USD.  The BRICS alliance was formed and the AIIB was created.

 

Russia & China seeing the weakness of the US are working hard to take advantage of it.  The US is fighting back with the sanctions on Russia and working with oil producing countries by tanking the price of oil with the intent of hurting Russia economically.

 

Anyhow……there is so much more to all of this than Iraq……The IQD is a very small piece to this puzzle.

 

There should be enough info above for you to google, and research, if you choose too.

 

And for that other poster who seems to like to follow up on my thoughts……..nope…….not saying America ain’t a great place……just saying there are many problems starting with $18+ trillion in debt…..$200+ trillion in derivatives……

 

Many pages could be written about the difficulties the US faces.  Some might even say the financial challenges the US has are greater that those Iraq faces.  Just look at the gold reserves each country in comparison to the M4 of each country.  This was a part of my original post. 

 

Hope this helps and I wish you well.  I believe for me this thread has run its course.

Edited October 31, 2015 by coorslite21

[SnowGlobe7]

I thought the budget for 2015 called for oil at $50 a barrel (something like that)

 

I will look for it, but I know we spoke about that back in the day.

[rockfl9]

Coors : Iraq reserves $66Bn in 2014 now somewheres around $48Bn!

I agree on the global stage Iraq is not very important financially.

I am not sure what your point is re. AIIB .  It is a Chinese tool to build financial power in the far East. But lately China has been contracting so maybe a little premature.