rons article about rv'ing, thought the lop section would like a chance to comment

[dinarck]

I showed you how much dinar Iraq really need, today. And guess what..? It's not a LOP figure of 30 billion or 60 billion dinar

Hummm thats funny. How come they havent needed it for the last 9 years? Have you forgotten about the billions in USD inside of Iraq?

[caughtinthecrossfire]

Whats going on CTCF.

No one has legitimately pointed out anything that cannot easily be shown to be either wishful thinking or just plain wrong.

I'm gud, dinarck tyty

as far as legitimatly wrong...er...that's kind of what I'm saying...what you are saying is not telling me zul or anyone else was legitimatly wrong. just say'n.

If they say they intend to produce X amount of oil per day....and they are producing oil 320 days AT LEAST per year...why does the cost/charge per barrell not clearly indicate that SOMEONE's #'s are not correct...or at least which set is not correct and why.

I guess that...if you read what I posted...I was making that point. Please explain how they can't be making more than you are using $ wise per year if days of the year they are in production and amount they produce is a given and an extremely low estimate of trade off value of $60/barrell. I will admit...I am basing my statement of 320/year production off of memory from an article that is likely two years old now. I have no idea where to find it but i suspect you could think of it right off the top of your head if you're as savy as you seem to indicate.

[zul]

Hummm thats funny. How come they havent needed it for the last 9 years? Have you forgotten about the billions in USD inside of Iraq?

Why even delete the 3 zeros..there were doing fine for the last 9 yrs.. :lol:

Edited March 28, 2012 by zul

[dinarck]

I'm gud, dinarck tyty

as far as legitimatly wrong...er...that's kind of what I'm saying...what you are saying is not telling me zul or anyone else was legitimatly wrong. just say'n.

If they say they intend to produce X amount of oil per day....and they are producing oil 320 days AT LEAST per year...why does the cost/charge per barrell not clearly indicate that SOMEONE's #'s are not correct...or at least which set is not correct and why.

I guess that...if you read what I posted...I was making that point. Please explain how they can't be making more than you are using $ wise per year if what they produce and amount they produce is a given. I will admit...I am basing my statement of 320/year production off of memory from an article that is likely two years old now. I have no idea where to find it but i suspect you could think of it right off the top of your head if you're as savy as you seem to indicate.

Well lets say that they do produce more than they spend which they dont. That would be called a surplus. Great. How does this mean they can RV to .01, .10., or 1.00 overnight? That is an impossibility no matter how much oil they produce per year. Ask yourself this. If Iraq was pumping a trillion dollars a year of oil, why would they want to give all of that away with a massive RV? That would all go into their reserves and no matter who has mislead you in the past I will lead you back to reality here. They would have to pay speculators for thier dinar. In USD or Euros or whatever. Why not just RD for free and keep the trillions per year? What good would a massive RV do Iraq? Nothing. It cannot happen so it is pointless even discussing an impossible act. The CBI probably has trillions of dinar in vaults and are printing as much as they want. Who or why would give them the authority to just say. OK now all of this is worth 1000 times or 500 times or 100 times what it is now? Why not just print up 50 trillion more first?

[caughtinthecrossfire]

Why even delete the 3 zeros..there were doing fine for 9 yrs.. :lol:

That was a topic I NEVER got a str8 answer on, zul. I asked that sooo many times last Aug...Sept...and again last month I think. Never got a good answer or even a peep from someone willing to challenge that VERY common sense idea. The chants the lop section were moaning early spring last year preached a world of lop based off of interest rates decrease...sustainablility...and then slow increase. If you follow CBI or Bloomberg (well if you can find the older articles now) you could see where Iraq had been in the perfect positon to LoP if indeed that was EVEN a realistic need or desire. Not to mention such a rational solution.

[dinarck]

Why even delete the 3 zeros..there were doing fine for the last 9 yrs.. :lol:

Lets see. To make transactions easier, reduce the amount of bills in circulation, erase the effects of past hyperinflation, reduce the amount in circulation from trillions to billions, increase purchasing power by bringing the new currency in on par with the dollar. You know. All the things the CBI has said a thousand times.

That was a topic I NEVER got a str8 answer on, zul. I asked that sooo many times last Aug...Sept...and again last month I think. Never got a good answer or even a peep from someone willing to challenge that VERY common sense idea. The chants the lop section were moaning early spring last year preached a world of lop based off of interest rates decrease...sustainablility...and then slow increase. If you follow CBI or Bloomberg (well if you can find the older articles now) you could see where Iraq had been in the perfect positon to LoP if indeed that was EVEN a realistic need or desire. Not to mention such a rational solution.

Why would Iraq RD back then? They have been busy filling the foreign reseves by the sale of dinar first. RDs are not just something they can do whenever anyway. They take years of planning and proper economic conditions. To make the argument that they wont LOP because they havent yet is flawed. I could say the same about the imaginary RV.

[caughtinthecrossfire]

Well lets say that they do produce more than they spend which they dont. ...Who or why would give them the authority to just say. OK now all of this is worth 1000 times or 500 times or 100 times what it is now? Why not just print up 50 trillion more first?

First off, I'll def say I see your point in the production vs spending...this will help clarify what I mean:

"EIA estimates it costs U.S. oil companies an average of about $24 a barrel to find, develop and produce oil worldwide, but that doesn't include costs like transportation, administration, or income taxes - which can be substantial. While Exxon made $40 billion in 2007, a 60% increase from 2004, it paid $100 billion in taxes and royalties..." http://money.cnn.com...allon/index.htm

However, some of the cost they speak of were negotiated and even if Iraq ends up only making a mere $5/barrel...it's still an easy 5trillion profit for a 320 day year of production. Again I have to ask...where are these numbers breaking down so badly? And are you saying that Iraq will spend more than 5 trillion next year? Wouldn't that just leave them with no deficite...kind of like 16X better than the U.S. situation atm??? PAAAA leeeeze hep meh unda stayund!!

and again, I ask yaz...why are you saying they might not have authority to print or RV? I think we both know that the powers that be...IMF+several...has never said Iraq's currency was worthless. Indeed....if you add up the numbers I am speaking of...their currency looks undervalued to say the least. In fact, if an RV was intended...it goes back to an already dead horse that Iraq or any other authority would not want that info going public. So...again...why LoP the "prove your RV stance" back at us as a question. I, myself, am just trying to really understand something I admit I might be looking too simplistically at.

Thanks, dinarck

Lets see. To make transactions easier, reduce the amount of bills in circulation, erase the effects of past hyperinflation, reduce the amount in circulation from trillions to billions, increase purchasing power by bringing the new currency in on par with the dollar. You know. All the things the CBI has said a thousand times.

Why would Iraq RD back then? They have been busy filling the foreign reseves by the sale of dinar first. RDs are not just something they can do whenever anyway. They take years of planning and proper economic conditions. To make the argument that they wont LOP because they havent yet is flawed. I could say the same about the imaginary RV.

when the hey did I say anything about Iraq RDing?? Why'd you quote me when saying that???? Yer killin meh!! My comment was about the LoP models you guys threw around here for several months before I finally joined the forum. I never said anything about the RD. However...if they LoP...and RD is a no brainer over several years to make the exchange even easier. That said...the LoP...as it has consistantly been presented for the solid yer I followed this section....has NO reason not have happened. NO set backs. NADDA ZIP...KAZERO

[BigFrankD]

Your math is way, way off. Iraq makes about 100 billion or so a year from oil production. It's nowhere near trillions

[dinarck]

First off, I'll def say I see your point in the production vs spending...this will help clarify what I mean:

"EIA estimates it costs U.S. oil companies an average of about $24 a barrel to find, develop and produce oil worldwide, but that doesn't include costs like transportation, administration, or income taxes - which can be substantial. While Exxon made $40 billion in 2007, a 60% increase from 2004, it paid $100 billion in taxes and royalties..." http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/gas_gallon/index.htm

However, some of the cost they speak of were negotiated and even if Iraq ends up only making a mere $5/barrel...it's still an easy 5trillion profit for a 320 day year of production. Again I have to ask...where are these numbers breaking down so badly? And are you saying that Iraq will spend more than 5 trillion next year? Wouldn't that just leave them with no deficite...kind of like 16X better than the U.S. situation atm??? PAAAA leeeeze hep meh unda stayund!!

and again, I ask yaz...why are you saying they might not have authority to print or RV? I think we both know that the powers that be...IMF+several...has never said Iraq's currency was worthless. Indeed....if you add up the numbers I am speaking of...their currency looks undervalued to say the least. In fact, if an RV was intended...it goes back to an already dead horse that Iraq or any other authority would not want that info going public. So...again...why LoP the "prove your RV stance" back at us as a question. I, myself, am just trying to really understand something I admit I might be looking too simplistically at.

Thanks, dinarck

when the hey did I say anything about Iraq RDing?? Why'd you quote me when saying that???? Yer killin meh!!

I am confused on where you are getting your 5 trillion number. I am going to have to assume you are converting oil profit in USD to dinar. OK That means their budget is 100 trillion dinar. Which is about how much they are pumping a year.

First off, I'll def say I see your point in the production vs spending...this will help clarify what I mean:

"EIA estimates it costs U.S. oil companies an average of about $24 a barrel to find, develop and produce oil worldwide, but that doesn't include costs like transportation, administration, or income taxes - which can be substantial. While Exxon made $40 billion in 2007, a 60% increase from 2004, it paid $100 billion in taxes and royalties..." http://money.cnn.com...allon/index.htm

However, some of the cost they speak of were negotiated and even if Iraq ends up only making a mere $5/barrel...it's still an easy 5trillion profit for a 320 day year of production. Again I have to ask...where are these numbers breaking down so badly? And are you saying that Iraq will spend more than 5 trillion next year? Wouldn't that just leave them with no deficite...kind of like 16X better than the U.S. situation atm??? PAAAA leeeeze hep meh unda stayund!!

and again, I ask yaz...why are you saying they might not have authority to print or RV? I think we both know that the powers that be...IMF+several...has never said Iraq's currency was worthless. Indeed....if you add up the numbers I am speaking of...their currency looks undervalued to say the least. In fact, if an RV was intended...it goes back to an already dead horse that Iraq or any other authority would not want that info going public. So...again...why LoP the "prove your RV stance" back at us as a question. I, myself, am just trying to really understand something I admit I might be looking too simplistically at.

Thanks, dinarck

when the hey did I say anything about Iraq RDing?? Why'd you quote me when saying that???? Yer killin meh!! My comment was about the LoP models you guys threw around here for several months before I finally joined the forum. I never said anything about the RD. However...if they LoP...and RD is a no brainer over several years to make the exchange even easier. That said...the LoP...as it has consistantly been presented for the solid yer I followed this section....has NO reason not have happened. NO set backs. NADDA ZIP...KAZERO

Zul asked why they hadnt lopped yet and you said you never got a answer to that question. I thought that was what was going on anyway. HAHA...

[caughtinthecrossfire]

Your math is way, way off. Iraq makes about 100 billion or so a year from oil production. It's nowhere near trillions

Again....you are quoting numbers that I clearly...if you bothered reading something other than the #'s in my post....was questioning based off of the number of days of production...the profit per barrel minus the overhead (budget aside if they end up with no deficite again the argument for value of USD over dinar)....and the projected number of barrels per day the central gov said will be possible by end of year. I gave my link. Please correct me if I'm wrong on the 320 days of production ...but better yet...expain in COMMON english, lol, why what you say is so low vs what they numbers they give determine.

[zul]

Lets see. To make transactions easier, reduce the amount of bills in circulation, erase the effects of past hyperinflation, reduce the amount in circulation from trillions to billions, increase purchasing power by bringing the new currency in on par with the dollar. You know. All the things the CBI has said a thousand times.

I'l summarize that for you...CHANGE. They are making changes...to their policy now.

So back to your earlier question " How come they havent needed it for the last 9 years?" ~ Sweet answer: They are changing that now. You said so.

[dinarck]

I'l summarize that for you...CHANGE. They are making changes...to their policy now.

So back to your earlier question " How come they havent needed it for the last 9 years?" ~ Sweet answer: They are changing that now. You said so.

Huh? Since Iraq went 9 years without a RD means they wont do it now? I fail to follow. They also went 9 years without a massive RV. Guess by your thinking that will never happen either.

[caughtinthecrossfire]

I am confused on where you are getting your 5 trillion number. I am going to have to assume you are converting oil profit in USD to dinar. OK That means their budget is 100 trillion dinar. Which is about how much they are pumping a year.

Zul asked why they hadnt lopped yet and you said you never got a answer to that question. I thought that was what was going on anyway. HAHA...

Yeah, I never got an answer the the question why...and still have no legit reason. This statement based off of the reasons consistantly posted over last spring and summer as to why the LoP would occur. Again...LoPsters claiming interest rates trigger the timing. Again...LoPsters claiming it solves Iraq's dinar problems...again...the LoP has no reason not to have occured if indeed it was CBI's intention.

OMG...ok...RD...redenomination. New bills. Bills reflecting no excessive 0's. LoP...electronic or however you want to argure the immaginary visualization of the dinar in you hand. 10000 (with one eye covered) equals 10? Siiiigh.

If they LoP...they will eventually RD. If they RV...they will eventually RD....If they wanted to LoP...it would not still be an eventuallity...it would have been history. Please bury the horse..it is starting to smell.

[BigFrankD]

Again....you are quoting numbers that I clearly...if you bothered reading something other than the #'s in my post....was questioning based off of the number of days of production...the profit per barrel minus the overhead (budget aside if they end up with no deficite again the argument for value of USD over dinar)....and the projected number of barrels per day the central gov said will be possible by end of year. I gave my link. Please correct me if I'm wrong on the 320 days of production ...but better yet...expain in COMMON english, lol, why what you say is so low vs what they numbers they give determine.

They produce around 3 million barrels per day. That's around 1 billion barrels per year. At 100 USD a barrel that's about 100 billion USD a year.

Either you're figuring in dinar, or for some reason you think they pump 3 billion barrels per day, which they most certainly do not. If they did their oil fields would be dry in a few months.

[dinarck]

Yeah, I never got an answer the the question why...and still have no legit reason. This statement based off of the reasons consistantly posted over last spring and summer as to why the LoP would occur. Again...LoPsters claiming interest rates trigger the timing. Again...LoPsters claiming it solves Iraq's dinar problems...again...the LoP has no reason not to have occured if indeed it was CBI's intention.

Well now you have an answer. See one of my post above. I gotta go to bed CTCF. Sorry to leave you hangin.

Come back and see me soon. Its always a pleasure.

[zul]

Huh? Since Iraq went 9 years without a RD means they wont do it now? I fail to follow. They also went 9 years without a massive RV. Guess by your thinking that will never happen either.

You are smarter than that Dinarck

I'm saying they are making changes to their policy now......and going by the amount of dinar that they need, they are not going to LOP. 30 billion or 60 billion dinar just wont do it. Gnite

[caughtinthecrossfire]

They produce around 3 million barrels per day. That's around 1 billion barrels per year. At 100 USD a barrel that's about 100 billion USD a year.

Either you're figuring in dinar, or for some reason you think they pump 3 billion barrels per day, which they most certainly do not. If they did their oil fields would be dry in a few months.

Frank,you're right...I stated a few xtra zeros. Thanks for pointing that out.

I said: 320 days of production....3.4million barrels/day (link)...$60 per barrel

3.4million X 320 days of production=1,088,000,000 billion (luv commas, HA!)

1,088,000,000 x $60/barrell=65,280,000,000 billion per year.

My bad and again, thanks for correction pointed out. It sure makes much more sense in my head now but...we're talking about 65billion a year. That's with a huge chunk taken out of the costs to reduce from $100-110/barreland we have not added in the reduction of import costs Iraq will see within two years. I always keep comming back to deficite. Iraq has had so many reductions in their debts and more I am sure are to be completed. These are circumstances that encourage an RV vs LoP in any day especially, as I have to keep saying, that LoPs have always been built around the this inflation rate. (i think I mistyped interest rate earlier?)

Well now you have an answer. See one of my post above. I gotta go to bed CTCF. Sorry to leave you hangin.

Come back and see me soon. Its always a pleasure.

Thanks, dinarck. Night to ya. Yeah, I'm over due too. One calc test in a day was bad enough...i just had to go push my luck with counting dollars. HA! Again, Frank, ty for the correction. Night all. I'll pop in again another night.

[caughtinthecrossfire]

Huh? Since Iraq went 9 years without a RD means they wont do it now? I fail to follow. They also went 9 years without a massive RV. Guess by your thinking that will never happen either.

One last comment i forgot to include earlier. About that RV...def not saying it's massive so please don't suggest zul and I are Okieites...but for the reasons of Iraqi debt has there been a long standing factor (reasonable) for the delay of a RV. In terms of debt, Iraq would be far better in standing if they reduced their debt/deficit before an RV of any size greater than a few hundred "pips" as they seem to be calling it since the recent exchange adjustment.

I do not persoanlly think an RV effects contractual amounts of cash like, for instance, costs of imports (or even incountry market prices). Iraq is not going to hyperinflate more from effects of an RV. The cost of a can of beans will not suddenly tripple in price because the dinar suddenly gains...let's just say 3X's it's current value. They are not the U.S. where we see overpricing on a grand scale and they certainly wouldn't see it as quickly as we do in the U.S. market.

Anyway, before I start adding too many 0's to the price of beans like I tend to do with oil...I'll just say this. Your comment to zul doesn't sound like a reply. An RD or a LoP is not determined by the same factors that an RV is determined. The former two are used as inflationary controls from the sounds of it. An RV on any level is based off of the determination of a country's debt first and formost...it's recovery of expenditures secondly...and thirdly...the central banks reserves-the required amount determined by the dinar in circulation, I'd think primary. The first two considerations I gave are a budget outside of the CBI's are they not?

Anyway...just say'n...I don't see any kind of reply to the comment zul made...at least one that merits your "Guess by your thinking" comment.

ok, for reeelz and truuuuuz...I'm off to dream land now. Nite nite.

[dvforumuser]

You are smarter than that Dinarck

I'm saying they are making changes to their policy now......and going by the amount of dinar that they need, they are not going to LOP. 30 billion or 60 billion dinar just wont do it. Gnite

But the whole "amount of dinar they need" argument is bogus. The amount of dinar that they need now is the amount they have now as evidenced by the economy working. Sure there are poor, there were poor under Saddam too but they didn't dare speak up. After an RD the economy works exactly the same way it is working now. If at that point dinars start to replace dollars, then the dinar money supply will increase proportionally. If not, then the two will continue to co-exist. But the idea that somehow going from X Trillion dinars to X Billion dinars is "not enough dinars" ignores the fact that all prices and wages and everything also goes down by 1000 so it all works exactly the same way. Its just an accounting convenience, it doesn't change the economy. There is no magic bullet for an economy. To grow an economy you have to... grow the economy, not just write down 1000x on a piece of paper. Edited March 28, 2012 by dvforumuser

[Darin]

Iraq has been getting along with less for almost ten years. If they "LOP" they get along the way they are. To say they cannot "LOP" because they wouldnt have enough purchasing power isnt going to cut it. If Iraq wants wealth in their country they are going to have to earn it like the rest of the world. RVs never have and never will create wealth in any country. They need to start training their people for actual jobs. They need factories, agriculture, an economy, something other than oil to export, technology, infrastructure, small businesses, ect. This whole notion that Iraq can "RV" its way into wealth is ludicrous. They are doing well on oil exports and that will definately continue to grow. The problem is this doesnt employ enough of their population. I think everyone can agree that RVs cannot take the place of jobs. The argument that will come next is that a RV will create jobs. HAHAHA.... The US maybe ought to think about RVing sometime soon then.

There are many factors you fail to consider in this on going argument. First, one of the major differences between 1988 & present day or 10 years ago was the USD factor. In 1988, I would likely argue that more people had faith and demand for their own national currency. It had value, it represented national pride, and the neighboring regions were quite popular in accepting the currency. When the previous regime took the reigns and went on a printing spree, the IQD value became inflated. It did not happen over night, but it happened over time as the value was high within the market which tempted the greedy regime to print more money to pay for war efforts.

Okay, so the average citizen over time lost value in their currency which ultimately means wealth was lost. An analogy to put into this situation is to say that all goods/services started to simply cost more because of their own value of the currency on a downfall. It is like every citizen was investing in stocks that were losing points on a gradually declining slope. That to me is a loss of wealth, as it was damaging their own economy. Ironically, we witness this in our very own country as the federal reserve continues to print cash due to its high demand. If the demand was not as high as it currently is, we would likely be reluctant to print as much as we did because it may tarnish its global demand. But, with our own economy to back that demand and how the dollar backs the sale of petro, the demand remains strong.

Putting appreciation back into the currency, albeit it small increments or more substantial may help boost the private sector & their local economy. Think of a substantial increase in the value of the currency like a stimulus package. I am speaking in terms of even just simply a penny r/v for example. Now the benefits of this for their people include the ability to purchase more goods/services. More patriotism towards the country in itself with the banks & government, and more trust & faith into their own national currency. This may lead to the people preferring the use of IQD over USD. If the currency itself becomes more internationally recognized, that becomes a bigger bonus as the ease of conversion helps out for those that do business or travel.

I would say that if the CBI remains status-quo in their policies, have been 100% legit with stating factual information to the public, and have no additional resources to back their currency any further than 'yes' a re-denomination is likely. But if we look into the possibilities further, we can determine that some possibilities are endless.

1st - Monetary policy, which could simply be amended to how the CBI values their currency. As of now, we see that they back it by 100% liquid assets. The market doesn't set the rate, the CBI sets the rate on what they have at the moment to back it. So, by reducing the supply by 1,000 times (removing the zeros) their money supply becomes billions which can easily be backed by their cash reserves which is in billions. Nearly a 1:1 exchange (minus the 3 zeros). That basically means, for every one new unit of currency, it is equal to one USD dollar. Granted for all of our notes, i.e., a 25,000 note is equivilant to a 25 note. I can understand the simplicity of that in ease of exchange, but not all currencies in existence are equal in value, so why match it to just one currency. Because, what if a business owners deals with Euros or British Pounds when their purchasing their goods to be imported? What if a merchant is going to Turkey or Kuwait to purchase goods and they need Lira or KWD?? Remaining pegged to the USD, is simply a strategy where a bank uses the success of another currency to maintain value. (A piggy-back system so to speak)... But wouldn't it be best for the CBI to look into its own interests as the USD will slowly lose value in the near future at the pace the global economy is going? It would be wise for them to consider their own future & destiny by preparing for the long-term fix & not a simple band-aid that may never be the correct solution.

2nd - External demand, ease of trade, lifting of restrictions, etc. We've seen that Iraq desire to have Ch. 7 lifted and become sovereign. We have seen their own desire to receive a full membership in the WTO. The interesting thing about the WTO alone is that iirc, the VND is the only currency that represents a country that is a full member that is non-convertible. But that particular currency is also speculated upon as well, just like the IQD. Ease of trade alone would create the currency to be more desirable. Demand is a good thing for the CBI because it reduces threat to their reserves. Look at the USD, trillions exist yet only 150 billion exists in foreign cash reserves. The demand for the USD is what allows that. We have seen articles state their desire to eventually be a reserve currency. I wonder how that will be possible upon only have billions in money supply. Is it fair for the CBI to just go print crazy just because they're now a reserve currency as well? Anyone know the central bank count on a global scale?

3rd - The future outlook: The high amount of oil production & exports. That number will continue to rise as they fix their own bottle neck issues. You can only pump what the pipeline allows to flow. We know that they're creating floating stations to help export. They have a lot of uncharted areas to even start pumping. But, crude is not their only source of natural resources as they also have natural gas, and other precious metals/materials. Remember, the value of the IQD was once strong not because of oil, but their agricultural sector. If that can be boosted again, the economy may improve quickly. Other factors for the future to consider is the cost of living increases, population increases, and that as the economy improves within itself more currency will be desired for the economy to function.

We're really arguing over opinions of one another. We can't predict what will happen, but we can formulate our opinion of what may or may not happen. I think the best researchers consider the external data because it may be the least misleading. We have no idea what the intent of the media articles we read are trying to persuade us to think, manipulate us in some way, or just provide information to sell papers. I think the contradictions alone are something to ponder. Time will eventually tell in this thing.

[zul]

But the whole "amount of dinar they need" argument is bogus. The amount of dinar that they need now is the amount they have now as evidenced by the economy working. Sure there are poor, there were poor under Saddam too but they didn't dare speak up. After an RD the economy works exactly the same way it is working now. If at that point dinars start to replace dollars, then the dinar money supply will increase proportionally. If not, then the two will continue to co-exist. But the idea that somehow going from X Trillion dinars to X Billion dinars is "not enough dinars" ignores the fact that all prices and wages and everything also goes down by 1000 so it all works exactly the same way. Its just an accounting convenience, it doesn't change the economy. There is no magic bullet for an economy. To grow an economy you have to... grow the economy, not just write down 1000x on a piece of paper.

You explanation/rationalization is more bogus that the argument that I put up Right now, the amount of dinar they have, does not, in any way, reflect the amount of dinar that they need. Their economy (major part of it) is working on USD…

[Darin]

But the whole "amount of dinar they need" argument is bogus. The amount of dinar that they need now is the amount they have now as evidenced by the economy working. Sure there are poor, there were poor under Saddam too but they didn't dare speak up. After an RD the economy works exactly the same way it is working now. If at that point dinars start to replace dollars, then the dinar money supply will increase proportionally. If not, then the two will continue to co-exist. But the idea that somehow going from X Trillion dinars to X Billion dinars is "not enough dinars" ignores the fact that all prices and wages and everything also goes down by 1000 so it all works exactly the same way. Its just an accounting convenience, it doesn't change the economy. There is no magic bullet for an economy. To grow an economy you have to... grow the economy, not just write down 1000x on a piece of paper.

The poor economy was intentional. It is common amongst regimes to make their people rely on the dictatorship regimes because they offer the food to simply survive. This method uses fear, violence, and reduces the rights of the citizens to prevent them from revolting. Those days are coming to an end as we have seen countries have their people stand for their own rights and basically have a coupe to bring in new leadership. This basically means that we're comparing apples to oranges from the old regime to current situations. The people were poor because of the old regime and that is what the old regime intended. I am sure it would be wise for other democratic countries to see the people prosper from a regime change to democracy. It shows success and may lead others to hope for that change. Wouldn't it be a great sign if the economy itself was on a fast-pace to turn around from what it once was and show that democracy can be a great thing?

The past / present comparison has one big factor that differentiates them apart. The 1988 scenario likely didn't have much USD in existence within the country at the time which created a higher demand for IQD. Present day, USD is more abundant and that is basically the U.S.'s doings... Remember, quickly upon the invasion, truck loads of USD were delivered & distributed to Iraq to boost their economy. Ever since than, the USD has been combating the IQD and vice versa for dominance. Now, the release of that USD was also seized previous regime USD, as it was not USD given as a loan. Some have been mistaken by that.

So look at the events.. Invasion, huge boost of USD in the market to help the economy, a release of a national currency..

6.38 Trillion printed & released initially while an abundance of USD was in their market. Now they likely still had a lot of USD floating around yet they expanded to 30 some trillion seems odd to me. Hard cash expanded by about 6 times within about 8 years. Appreciation was minimal and USD existed.

Not sure of the timeline to exact T's, but, the release of USD and the release of the new IQD should not have been to far apart. I wonder why they released so much USD to the market, than released a new currency to replace old regime notes, and than followed up by attempting to flood the market w/ IQD in the coming years. Was it an attempt to pull in USD? Who knows -

[zul]

You explanation/rationalization is more bogus that the argument that I put up Right now, the amount of dinar that they have, does not, in any way, reflect the amount of dinar that they need. Their economy (major part of it) is working on USD…

Have you ever imagine, how their economy would be running today if they were to use dinar, and dinar only (without the USD)..? WOuld you still be saying ~ the amount of dinar they have today is all the amount of dinar that they need.?

Let 's talk ACTUAL amount.. No more bogus talk.

From the CBI auctions, you can see their daily requirement for US dollar in Iraq is averaging between 200 to 250 million USD ~ Multiply that by 20 (to get the monthly amt) and then again by 12.

Taking conservative figure of 200 million daily~ In one week (5 days)..the market requirement is 1 billion USD

One month = 4 billion.

One year = 48 billion.

So Iraqi market needs at least 48 (USD) billion annually. You convert that amount to dinar (@ 1.17).....and we can safely assume, that WOULD be the amount of dinar that Iraq need for their market. Already about 56 billion dinar.

That's just market requirement for dinar. How about (dinar) requirement to pay for salaries... pensions, govt bills....? And more dinar requirement for international trades when they are out of Ch.7 and back in article 8 (IMF). That's easily more than 60 billion dinar (LOP amount).

sorry..something went wrong with my editing.

This should be the total response to dvforumuser.

Edited March 28, 2012 by zul

[keepmwlknfny]

You explanation/rationalization is more bogus that the argument that I put up Right now, the amount of dinar they have, does not, in any way, reflect the amount of dinar that they need. Their economy (major part of it) is working on USD…

The highest numbers I have ever seen reported on the amount of USD usage in the market place is 40%.....but if they were MAJORLY dependant on the USD, what do you think would have happened recently?? There were articles coming out about how there is a lack of USD circulating since the whole Iran/Syria issue....a lot of the USD left with us pulling out, and even more so with the USD being smuggled out of the country.....

So my point is, dont you think if it really was true that all iraqis are using mostly USD that there would be a SERIOUS crisis in country in regards to the money supply?? If there is no dinar and no USD then the country would come to a standstill.....they are steadily printing more and more dinar every year to build a proper money supply. Which is why once they hit like 58 billion in reserves there was a rash of articles that even stated in the headlines "Iraq reaches 58 billion in reserves, should redenominate soon"......

[dinarck]

The highest numbers I have ever seen reported on the amount of USD usage in the market place is 40%.....but if they were MAJORLY dependant on the USD, what do you think would have happened recently?? There were articles coming out about how there is a lack of USD circulating since the whole Iran/Syria issue....a lot of the USD left with us pulling out, and even more so with the USD being smuggled out of the country.....

So my point is, dont you think if it really was true that all iraqis are using mostly USD that there would be a SERIOUS crisis in country in regards to the money supply?? If there is no dinar and no USD then the country would come to a standstill.....they are steadily printing more and more dinar every year to build a proper money supply. Which is why once they hit like 58 billion in reserves there was a rash of articles that even stated in the headlines "Iraq reaches 58 billion in reserves, should redenominate soon"......

Agreed.

Iraq has been getting by on a hyperinflated money supply for over 9 years now and back then it was a smaller M2 & worth much less than it is today. The argument that Iraq cannot function on the current money supply is bunk. Post RD Iraq could continue printing as long as their reserves continue to grow along with it. That is how economies work. As long as they grow then wealth is slowly added to the economy.