dinarslave Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 First off, I have been invested for about 18 months and I admit that I don't have a total understanding of the nuts and bolts of the Iraq nation building thing but I have theory as to what will really trigger RV. We have just seen Iraq up oil production to the tune of billions per month. Couple that with the auctions and buying back mucho Dinar it seems as the gurus' are saying that it is about time to RV. My theory is that Iraq will not RV until they are not able to acquire vast amounts of Dinar at auction. In other words they have called in all the Dinar that they can get. That's when we see RV. I am guessing May of this year. Go easy on me you smart folks I am an amateur. How about it am I looking at the right stuff or am I off base? Hi Mike, I would read all that you can and you will find many more things holding up the RV than merely how many dinars they have in circulation. This is the best dinar site with many, many people with time and knowledge under their belts that we all learn from each and every day. Just to name a few possibilities of what is holding up the RV: the HCL law; Chaper 7 sanctions; economic laws that deal with how to treat individual debt (if someone has a lean with the bank for $50,000 dinar what happens after an RV, do they then owe $50,000, etc); the passage of the budget, and there are more. This dinar investment is a process not an event and patience is the virtue and realizing that this is not just about us. We have the unique opportunity to learn from really smart gracious people and for me that is one of the true joys of this investment. Just say thank you a lot to your teachers and soak up the knowledge! Thanks for the post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caughtinthecrossfire Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 Thanks, you Nut. I enjoy following long posts that are so well done. Especially those that help expain the general RV practicality over other suggested options of the dinar future. Well done! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BradyBear Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 Thank you Tyron, finally some one has re-assured my concepts learned in college economic classes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsskelton Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wow, quite possibly one of the finest reads I have seen on this or any other site. Well thought out, informative, and makes a ton of sense! Thanks for the terrific post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quadkidd1 Posted January 24, 2012 Report Share Posted January 24, 2012 SDB Mike, Here's my Opinion. It will be long however, in the form of Timelines, History and of course my Educated Opinion on them all. First, I think you're looking at the right stuff and totally On Base,,, And if they (Iraq) continue to make headway like they're doing it just may be SOONER than you guess... As far as my research, knowledge, intel, timelines, conclusions and intuition goes I believe the "Gun" is already loaded and cocked, and with that I also believe that Shabs could really Pull the Trigger at any time. However, He and the other powers to be are wise men and very in tune with the limitations and outcomes of what these actions could, and will do. I believe their primary concern (I would put it at about 98%) is and will be all about what the RV actions will do TO, and FOR Iraq, while their secondary concern (the remaining 2%) will be what the RV actions will do, for and to, the rest of the world. Okay, so my percentages may be slightly off, but in the end I'll bet I'm close. As with a gun that is loaded and cocked, Pulling the trigger, can happen at anytime but pulling the trigger on any whim or at any time is not always the best or SAFEST action. No different than holding a loaded and cocked gun in your house. You probably wouldn't pull the trigger in your house, simply because you could! That would just NOT be a smart thing to do! I mean pull the trigger just because you could. Right? Even though you have it loaded and ready to go you would wait for the Right Time and the Right Place. Iraq knows that the world is watching, (and panting and drooling) for them to pull the trigger, and I'll bet Shabs has his finger on that trigger 99% of the time. But he's got to patiently wait for the right time to present its self. Yes, they know that the rest of the world is holding IQD. That fact came totally by Iraq's design by selling it at auction to the world. This was their way of making enough money to keep the lights on (so to speak). They also knew (and know) that the auctions would not work if EVERYONE buying IQD did not see a Future Value in it. That's the old; What's In It For Me, idiom. The IQD auctions work, not because people around the world want the notes for a colorful substitute for wall paper, they want them because of their perceived future value. Everything we purchase, currency or commodity is done for it's value, current or future. The value in IQD is future OIL. I believe from all that they do and say, that they KNOW, that the rest of the IQD holding world is WAITING on them to make it more valuable than it was at auction. (Auctions have a kind of "Implied" contract for future value and only work when the buying party sees greater immediate or future value in the item over what is paid for it.) Do they LIKE the fact that the rest of the world holding IRQ is waiting on them like vultures circling? NO! It's painfully obvious that they don't want to OWE anyone, any more than they absolutely have to, but they also know that they created this monster by their auctions, and even though they did it to keep the lights on they know they will have to follow through with it and give that future value or WAR will come right back to their doorstep as too many governments, let alone individuals, have put serious money into their infrastructure via IQD purchases at auction. Can they do anything about the IQD held around the world? Yes, but their options are very limited. Can they do anything about the IQD held in Iraq? ABSOLUTELY! Anything they want or need and we're seeing this right now more than ever. I'll cover this more in a minute. Too many posts here and elsewhere are from people who so badly want or need the RV to save them from their financial misery and because of that misery (or greed or desire) they begin to look at the RV through the lenses of their own needs and not what is actually happening or needed from those who will actually do it. This myopic view tends to lead one astray down wishful paths of speculative dreaming. We have a saying; "Boots on Soil" or in other words; BEING THERE! If we first put our boots (in this case our minds) on soil, in Iraq and then take our speculation forward, many times we have a totally different paradigm of the events. It's the difference from looking OUT versus looking IN and knowing the difference between the two. Myopic view points come from people looking IN while trying to convince themselves and others that they are looking OUT!! Please don't take me to say or think I'm an authority or have any special info here that no one else has or can get. I just study what I can and apply it with as much prudence as possible to make my opinions! We know that there are multiple reasons for Iraq NOT to RV (albeit they get fewer day by day) and we myopically (and logically) have multiple reason for them TO RV if not immediately. They have been on this path the entire time and when it is finally done, we will all look back and probably say; "Yup, probably couldn't have happened any other way for the circumstances." Here is a link where they officially announced their intentions to Re-Denominate their currency with a general date of occurrence (within one year). The article was back on Feb 6, 2010 Iraq Planning Currency Redenomiination Note in the article that they had INTENDED for this to only take a year from the time of the press release AND Note that they fully expected to have TWO currencies on the street simultaneously... The timeline didn't work for political and occupational reasons, but the idea was sound. I'll address this a little later. It's been almost two years now and we've seen many positive steps completing this but they didn't make that timeline either as we've also seen set back after set back. I'll also cover these in a minute The question always pops up; Do they have to, or is it a MUST, that they be OUT of Chapter VII before they RV their currency? To my knowledge, the answer is NO. Sovereign countries have the right to do what they want with their currency. Would it BENEFIT them to RV while in Chapter VII? Again I believe NO is the answer. This entire EVENT must be done with minimal negative impact to the country of Iraq. So being out of Chapter VII is probably desirable prior to RV as well as having everyone "In Country" on the same page legally... i.e., Erbil and HCL laws. OKAY, Here's how I see the timeline. 1. HISTORY: Iraq needs income and because their GDP (oil production) is so low after Saddam, Iraq begins to sell IQD to the world as a primary income commodity. Commodities are sold, auctioned and traded for two reasons, intrinsic or future value and we all know as I said before, that the world is not buying dinar for its intrinsic (wall paper) value. 2. Iraq does NOT want to, and should NOT RV their currency while massive triple zero notes are "In Country" as this could easily cause civil war to break out, or inadvertently finance terrorism, not to mention their citizens becoming too rich too fast to even care about working and building up their country, plus about 30 more negative reasons. If Iraq wants to be like Qatar they can certainly get there, but they will need years of stability first, riches for the people second. If they make the people rich first, they will not be stable. If you don't know about Qatar a neighbor to the south of Iraq you should study it. Everything there is FREE to Qataris. EVERYTHING! All based on their crazy rich Natural Gas reserves. So how do they do that? They have to get their people to GIVE UP their triple zero IQD notes willingly and quickly, and preferably BEFORE they pull the trigger on the RV. But HOW? Originally I believed they were going to RV "In Country" and use TWO currencies as noted in the news. They would have put a higher Value on the the new LOWER denominations, and kept the current value on the higher denominations (basically keeping the same value for their monetary system but with two different currencies). They would allow both currencies to co-mingle on the streets and quietly and systematically remove the triple zero notes. The banking system would then just retire the higher notes as they came through in exchange for smaller notes just like all banking systems retire worn out currency. HOWEVER, in-fighting, and excessive political delays in passing laws that should be in place to protect this exchange have eaten up much of the time allotted and now Iraq is coming down to the wire and seriously needing value to their currency to continue. Not to mention that if they took that "In Country" route, they might just have all of the other nations VERY upset with them because it would look as if Iraq was snubbing the world and going back on their "Implied Contract for Value" from the auctions, and Iraq can NOT afford to have the WORLD mad at them right now. TODAY The World and mainly the U.S. wants to be repaid for 10 years of giving and giving. Plus, Iraq is now Sovereign, and every foreign company doing business with Iraq who are there to help them build their infrastructure back and allow them to come out of this on top wants to be paid with something other than Pretty WALL PAPER!! The problem is that it is seriously taking TOO long. Currency auctions without backing up your currency with higher value, (in this case oil) have a tendency to drive inflation UP And backing up or strengthening the currency is... WAIT FOR IT.... The TRIGGER you're looking for to for the RV. Inflation is a fickle thing. Below 10% is typically controllable by the Central Bank and Government but as it approaches 10% it will start to grow exponentially. And that becomes a nightmare that is quickly out of your control. Iraq can not afford out of control inflation because it will destroy them faster than a civil war. Shabs knows this and the world has seen Iraq teetering on this edge for a while now. That's why I believe he has his finger on that TRIGGER 99% of the time because as soon as he can RV their currency it will KILL inflation. THEN IT HAPPENED... Dr. Shabs had an idea. He saw something happening in the world that could get them back on track and in control,,, FAST. The European EVENT. In October-November 2011 the European economic melt down started a phenomenon. The phenomenon was this: European's out of their fear of the Euro failing were trading Euro's for USD on a massive scale so much so that the USD started to climb in value around the world just from demand. Note: There are posts all over during this time frame with people wondering why the change in dinar value. It was only because the US Dollar was getting slightly stronger because of world demand that changed the value against the dinar... CBI had done nothing to change its value. So, Shabs has his number one "mini me" Saleh, "Leak" word that the IQD was weakening against the USD Just a LEAK. WAS IT TRUE? Yes, but only half so. As I said, the IQD was truly weakening against the dollar but because of European events, not because of the Iraqi events. Now if you were "Boots on Soil" in Iraq at that time, you would have noticed something else happening. You would have noticed that there were less and less US DOLLARS in circulation. Combine THAT with Saleh's "Leak" and it might just PANIC you into thinking that your country's monetary value was AGAIN falling off the edge of the world. WHAT'S THE GOAL? The ULTIMATE Goal NECESSARY to make the RV possible with the least injury to Iraq, would be to get the Iraqi people to Voluntarily and Quickly, TURN IN their Triple Zero Notes!!! TRUTH; The real reason for less USD on the streets (in the market place) was because all of the US troops had just left and no more NEW USD was coming into the market place on paydays!! You may sneer and ask; How could they do this and get away with it? They can do this very easily because communication in Iraq is still not up to speed for the common people. They only have an hour or two (at best) of electricity each day and the only other news they have is the GAZETTE (the Governments Newspaper) and word of mouth!! Okay, so the SCARE tactic worked. Trillions of dinar has poured into Iraqi banks for almost 2 months now due to the panic, Iraqi citizens RAN to the banks trading IQD for USD because they were feeling like their own countries money was AGAIN loosing value and the True VALUE was in the US Dollar. So here's where we come to your observation SDB MIKE I believe you're right, that Shabs will wait until there is a MINIMAL amount of dinar in country, BUT I believe that day is closer than you think. The problem that I have posed in our think tank for a LONG time is this: If all you have on the streets of Iraq is triple zero notes and you RV the notes to HIGHER value, HOW DO YOU MAKE CHANGE without lower denominations?? You've got to get the lower denom's onto the street, OR Have an alternate way to make change! Shab's figured out how to do this in THREE EASY STEPS And it's happening RIGHT NOW! 1. Get the people to turn in their IQD for USD ---DONE, in the history books 2. Restore confidence in the IQD __a. Raise the value of the IQD against the USD slightly ---DONE... HAPPENED LAST WEEK 1170 to 1166 __b. Press release that "All is Well" ---HAPPENED TODAY CBI Restores Confidence in IQD 3. Revalue the currency to Match the USD already on the streets, Now they can release the lower IQD denominations (that match the currency already on the streets) and retire the USD as it comes into the banks replacing it with IQD of equal value. This is the Magical Pixie Dust for the Iraqi government and CBI. 1. Iraqi People get rid of their 000 notes VOLUNTARILY and FAST 2. Iraqi People use USD for their TEMPORARY monetary system and now have the ability to make change. 3. CBI can easily control how fast the new currency goes out to the street without stressing the country or economy. HOW DOES THE CBI CONTROL IT? If the CBI wants the exchange of USD for IQD to occur faster, all they have to do is put more confidence in the IQD versus the USD... (i.e., revalue it again just slightly higher 1.16 USD to 1 IQD) That will trigger another massive "fear of loss" exchange event and would ensue and USD would fly off the street for IQD. Another Teaser Note: 1.17 to 1 is the just the opposite of current CBI exchange rate of 1 to 1166 (just move the decimal points to 1.166!!) and THIS amount fits PERFECTLY with their wants and projected budget needs. As I said earlier, the Iraqi Government and CBI knows the rest of the world is watching and they do NOT want to owe anyone any more than they possibly have to, so they can NOT afford to send up a signal flare saying WE'RE ABOUT TO RV... because that would be a BUY, BUY, BUY signal... which would crush them. Right now if they change the auction rate too much they will send up the RV flares and cause a world buying spree, but with USD already on the streets the RV can come with a wave of the wand or Pull of the TRIGGER! While this event was not designed for the rest of the world, it still works GREAT for EVERYONE. I believe that I saw an article (perhaps someone can find it and post it) that stated that they already have LOWER denom's printed and ready to go.... So where are they keeping them? They're probably in secure CBI warehouses.... NOT in the BANKS. If they were to start moving the lower denoms to the banks THAT folks would be a signal worth acting on... But if the Iraqi citizens are using USD and can already MAKE CHANGE for sales in the market place, The CBI can now do the RV without any fanfare or notice and afterward, move their lower denom's to the banks unencumbered. Okay, we're finally seeing this ALL come to fruition. Just a week ago we saw the CBI change their artificial float rate from 1170 to 1166 which was the first step in reassuring the Iraqi people that their IQD is getting stronger. Which by the way, the Iraqi people no longer have in great quantity. This should already be wetting their appetite for their IQD again. (This action is like taking your foot off the gas pedal as you approach the exit coming off the freeway/turnpike) and TODAY Shabibi took action to slow it down even more... CBI seeks to restore confidence in the local currency against the dollar (This is totally akin to applying pressure to the BRAKE to slow the vehicle down as you prepare to make the BIG TURN to a new direction as you get off the speedway.) If I were looking for a SIGN that the CBI was believing that they were seeing the LAST of the Triple Zero notes trickling in from "In Country", THIS WOULD BE IT. With this article, the CBI now wants the Iraqi citizens to Have Faith in their IQD...OVER THE US DOLLAR... AGAIN! The people are now using USD and can make change. Here you go, They can now RV and have TWO currencies on the street at the same time as I showed you above. All the government needs to do now is get the Iraqi people to exchange their USD for IQD And the way they do that is to RV... Then they can swap out the USD for IQD at their own pace, without panicking the world into massive buying of dinar and owing even more. So, the next step in my humble opinion is the RV YEA!!! and simultaneous release of lower the denominations. This of course will come just as soon as they have the final security and laws in place to protect the event. We're seeing all of the positive movement from Iraq to finalize many laws and budgets this week, and it would appear that they have just about dotted all of their 'i's" and crossed all of their "T's" Go RV. I hope Adam will do a driveby and comment on this post. I am sure his take is much the same. I would like to thank wing personally for taking the time to illuminate so much . Damn I wish I was that smart! It is so refreshing to see posts like this and it truly seems the folks in VIP have better manners. The insight gained here is certainly worth the fees incurred for VIP!!! Quad 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iownya83 Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 WOW hears to the only GURU (Capt Wingnut) that has made any sense other then Adam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfnsr Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 CaptainWingnut, thanks for your insights. - GREAT STUFF! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sun Devil Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 Wingnut - I'm speechless. That is by far the absolute BEST post I've ever read relating to the dinar and RV. That post right there made my VIP worthwhile. Hats off to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geman Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 you are not bad for a Detroit red wing nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DinarDana Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 BRAVO <clap, clap> thank you for validating my thoughts! I love that you have communicated what I have been thinking for the past two weeks. BINGO you nailed it. The press release today was great news confirming the process. This thread is a perfect end to my not so eventful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokeNoMore Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 This was certainly right up there with the very best explanations of this process yet, and answered a few questions I haven't been able to get answered anywhere! I agree 100% with the meat of the explanation, I only question the two currency idea: I believe that they are simply going to circulate lower denom notes and pull in the higher denom notes, and that the value of 1 dinar will be constant across the board when they RV. A 25000 note will be worth whatever one dinar x 25000 is. Hopefully at least USD $25000! I'm not sure if this is what Captain meant with his explanation, but that's what I expect. I also agree...this should be put up with Chat Logs!!! Way valuable!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panamagold Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 SDB Mike, Here's my Opinion. It will be long however, in the form of Timelines, History and of course my Educated Opinion on them all. First, I think you're looking at the right stuff and totally On Base,,, And if they (Iraq) continue to make headway like they're doing it just may be SOONER than you guess... As far as my research, knowledge, intel, timelines, conclusions and intuition goes I believe the "Gun" is already loaded and cocked, and with that I also believe that Shabs could really Pull the Trigger at any time. However, He and the other powers to be are wise men and very in tune with the limitations and outcomes of what these actions could, and will do. I believe their primary concern (I would put it at about 98%) is and will be all about what the RV actions will do TO, and FOR Iraq, while their secondary concern (the remaining 2%) will be what the RV actions will do, for and to, the rest of the world. Okay, so my percentages may be slightly off, but in the end I'll bet I'm close. As with a gun that is loaded and cocked, Pulling the trigger, can happen at anytime but pulling the trigger on any whim or at any time is not always the best or SAFEST action. No different than holding a loaded and cocked gun in your house. You probably wouldn't pull the trigger in your house, simply because you could! That would just NOT be a smart thing to do! I mean pull the trigger just because you could. Right? Even though you have it loaded and ready to go you would wait for the Right Time and the Right Place. Iraq knows that the world is watching, (and panting and drooling) for them to pull the trigger, and I'll bet Shabs has his finger on that trigger 99% of the time. But he's got to patiently wait for the right time to present its self. Yes, they know that the rest of the world is holding IQD. That fact came totally by Iraq's design by selling it at auction to the world. This was their way of making enough money to keep the lights on (so to speak). They also knew (and know) that the auctions would not work if EVERYONE buying IQD did not see a Future Value in it. That's the old; What's In It For Me, idiom. The IQD auctions work, not because people around the world want the notes for a colorful substitute for wall paper, they want them because of their perceived future value. Everything we purchase, currency or commodity is done for it's value, current or future. The value in IQD is future OIL. I believe from all that they do and say, that they KNOW, that the rest of the IQD holding world is WAITING on them to make it more valuable than it was at auction. (Auctions have a kind of "Implied" contract for future value and only work when the buying party sees greater immediate or future value in the item over what is paid for it.) Do they LIKE the fact that the rest of the world holding IRQ is waiting on them like vultures circling? NO! It's painfully obvious that they don't want to OWE anyone, any more than they absolutely have to, but they also know that they created this monster by their auctions, and even though they did it to keep the lights on they know they will have to follow through with it and give that future value or WAR will come right back to their doorstep as too many governments, let alone individuals, have put serious money into their infrastructure via IQD purchases at auction. Can they do anything about the IQD held around the world? Yes, but their options are very limited. Can they do anything about the IQD held in Iraq? ABSOLUTELY! Anything they want or need and we're seeing this right now more than ever. I'll cover this more in a minute. Too many posts here and elsewhere are from people who so badly want or need the RV to save them from their financial misery and because of that misery (or greed or desire) they begin to look at the RV through the lenses of their own needs and not what is actually happening or needed from those who will actually do it. This myopic view tends to lead one astray down wishful paths of speculative dreaming. We have a saying; "Boots on Soil" or in other words; BEING THERE! If we first put our boots (in this case our minds) on soil, in Iraq and then take our speculation forward, many times we have a totally different paradigm of the events. It's the difference from looking OUT versus looking IN and knowing the difference between the two. Myopic view points come from people looking IN while trying to convince themselves and others that they are looking OUT!! Please don't take me to say or think I'm an authority or have any special info here that no one else has or can get. I just study what I can and apply it with as much prudence as possible to make my opinions! We know that there are multiple reasons for Iraq NOT to RV (albeit they get fewer day by day) and we myopically (and logically) have multiple reason for them TO RV if not immediately. They have been on this path the entire time and when it is finally done, we will all look back and probably say; "Yup, probably couldn't have happened any other way for the circumstances." Here is a link where they officially announced their intentions to Re-Denominate their currency with a general date of occurrence (within one year). The article was back on Feb 6, 2010 Iraq Planning Currency Redenomiination Note in the article that they had INTENDED for this to only take a year from the time of the press release AND Note that they fully expected to have TWO currencies on the street simultaneously... The timeline didn't work for political and occupational reasons, but the idea was sound. I'll address this a little later. It's been almost two years now and we've seen many positive steps completing this but they didn't make that timeline either as we've also seen set back after set back. I'll also cover these in a minute The question always pops up; Do they have to, or is it a MUST, that they be OUT of Chapter VII before they RV their currency? To my knowledge, the answer is NO. Sovereign countries have the right to do what they want with their currency. Would it BENEFIT them to RV while in Chapter VII? Again I believe NO is the answer. This entire EVENT must be done with minimal negative impact to the country of Iraq. So being out of Chapter VII is probably desirable prior to RV as well as having everyone "In Country" on the same page legally... i.e., Erbil and HCL laws. OKAY, Here's how I see the timeline. 1. HISTORY: Iraq needs income and because their GDP (oil production) is so low after Saddam, Iraq begins to sell IQD to the world as a primary income commodity. Commodities are sold, auctioned and traded for two reasons, intrinsic or future value and we all know as I said before, that the world is not buying dinar for its intrinsic (wall paper) value. 2. Iraq does NOT want to, and should NOT RV their currency while massive triple zero notes are "In Country" as this could easily cause civil war to break out, or inadvertently finance terrorism, not to mention their citizens becoming too rich too fast to even care about working and building up their country, plus about 30 more negative reasons. If Iraq wants to be like Qatar they can certainly get there, but they will need years of stability first, riches for the people second. If they make the people rich first, they will not be stable. If you don't know about Qatar a neighbor to the south of Iraq you should study it. Everything there is FREE to Qataris. EVERYTHING! All based on their crazy rich Natural Gas reserves. So how do they do that? They have to get their people to GIVE UP their triple zero IQD notes willingly and quickly, and preferably BEFORE they pull the trigger on the RV. But HOW? Originally I believed they were going to RV "In Country" and use TWO currencies as noted in the news. They would have put a higher Value on the the new LOWER denominations, and kept the current value on the higher denominations (basically keeping the same value for their monetary system but with two different currencies). They would allow both currencies to co-mingle on the streets and quietly and systematically remove the triple zero notes. The banking system would then just retire the higher notes as they came through in exchange for smaller notes just like all banking systems retire worn out currency. HOWEVER, in-fighting, and excessive political delays in passing laws that should be in place to protect this exchange have eaten up much of the time allotted and now Iraq is coming down to the wire and seriously needing value to their currency to continue. Not to mention that if they took that "In Country" route, they might just have all of the other nations VERY upset with them because it would look as if Iraq was snubbing the world and going back on their "Implied Contract for Value" from the auctions, and Iraq can NOT afford to have the WORLD mad at them right now. TODAY The World and mainly the U.S. wants to be repaid for 10 years of giving and giving. Plus, Iraq is now Sovereign, and every foreign company doing business with Iraq who are there to help them build their infrastructure back and allow them to come out of this on top wants to be paid with something other than Pretty WALL PAPER!! The problem is that it is seriously taking TOO long. Currency auctions without backing up your currency with higher value, (in this case oil) have a tendency to drive inflation UP And backing up or strengthening the currency is... WAIT FOR IT.... The TRIGGER you're looking for to for the RV. Inflation is a fickle thing. Below 10% is typically controllable by the Central Bank and Government but as it approaches 10% it will start to grow exponentially. And that becomes a nightmare that is quickly out of your control. Iraq can not afford out of control inflation because it will destroy them faster than a civil war. Shabs knows this and the world has seen Iraq teetering on this edge for a while now. That's why I believe he has his finger on that TRIGGER 99% of the time because as soon as he can RV their currency it will KILL inflation. THEN IT HAPPENED... Dr. Shabs had an idea. He saw something happening in the world that could get them back on track and in control,,, FAST. The European EVENT. In October-November 2011 the European economic melt down started a phenomenon. The phenomenon was this: European's out of their fear of the Euro failing were trading Euro's for USD on a massive scale so much so that the USD started to climb in value around the world just from demand. Note: There are posts all over during this time frame with people wondering why the change in dinar value. It was only because the US Dollar was getting slightly stronger because of world demand that changed the value against the dinar... CBI had done nothing to change its value. So, Shabs has his number one "mini me" Saleh, "Leak" word that the IQD was weakening against the USD Just a LEAK. WAS IT TRUE? Yes, but only half so. As I said, the IQD was truly weakening against the dollar but because of European events, not because of the Iraqi events. Now if you were "Boots on Soil" in Iraq at that time, you would have noticed something else happening. You would have noticed that there were less and less US DOLLARS in circulation. Combine THAT with Saleh's "Leak" and it might just PANIC you into thinking that your country's monetary value was AGAIN falling off the edge of the world. WHAT'S THE GOAL? The ULTIMATE Goal NECESSARY to make the RV possible with the least injury to Iraq, would be to get the Iraqi people to Voluntarily and Quickly, TURN IN their Triple Zero Notes!!! TRUTH; The real reason for less USD on the streets (in the market place) was because all of the US troops had just left and no more NEW USD was coming into the market place on paydays!! You may sneer and ask; How could they do this and get away with it? They can do this very easily because communication in Iraq is still not up to speed for the common people. They only have an hour or two (at best) of electricity each day and the only other news they have is the GAZETTE (the Governments Newspaper) and word of mouth!! Okay, so the SCARE tactic worked. Trillions of dinar has poured into Iraqi banks for almost 2 months now due to the panic, Iraqi citizens RAN to the banks trading IQD for USD because they were feeling like their own countries money was AGAIN loosing value and the True VALUE was in the US Dollar. So here's where we come to your observation SDB MIKE I believe you're right, that Shabs will wait until there is a MINIMAL amount of dinar in country, BUT I believe that day is closer than you think. The problem that I have posed in our think tank for a LONG time is this: If all you have on the streets of Iraq is triple zero notes and you RV the notes to HIGHER value, HOW DO YOU MAKE CHANGE without lower denominations?? You've got to get the lower denom's onto the street, OR Have an alternate way to make change! Shab's figured out how to do this in THREE EASY STEPS And it's happening RIGHT NOW! 1. Get the people to turn in their IQD for USD ---DONE, in the history books 2. Restore confidence in the IQD __a. Raise the value of the IQD against the USD slightly ---DONE... HAPPENED LAST WEEK 1170 to 1166 __b. Press release that "All is Well" ---HAPPENED TODAY CBI Restores Confidence in IQD 3. Revalue the currency to Match the USD already on the streets, Now they can release the lower IQD denominations (that match the currency already on the streets) and retire the USD as it comes into the banks replacing it with IQD of equal value. This is the Magical Pixie Dust for the Iraqi government and CBI. 1. Iraqi People get rid of their 000 notes VOLUNTARILY and FAST 2. Iraqi People use USD for their TEMPORARY monetary system and now have the ability to make change. 3. CBI can easily control how fast the new currency goes out to the street without stressing the country or economy. HOW DOES THE CBI CONTROL IT? If the CBI wants the exchange of USD for IQD to occur faster, all they have to do is put more confidence in the IQD versus the USD... (i.e., revalue it again just slightly higher 1.16 USD to 1 IQD) That will trigger another massive "fear of loss" exchange event and would ensue and USD would fly off the street for IQD. Another Teaser Note: 1.17 to 1 is the just the opposite of current CBI exchange rate of 1 to 1166 (just move the decimal points to 1.166!!) and THIS amount fits PERFECTLY with their wants and projected budget needs. As I said earlier, the Iraqi Government and CBI knows the rest of the world is watching and they do NOT want to owe anyone any more than they possibly have to, so they can NOT afford to send up a signal flare saying WE'RE ABOUT TO RV... because that would be a BUY, BUY, BUY signal... which would crush them. Right now if they change the auction rate too much they will send up the RV flares and cause a world buying spree, but with USD already on the streets the RV can come with a wave of the wand or Pull of the TRIGGER! While this event was not designed for the rest of the world, it still works GREAT for EVERYONE. I believe that I saw an article (perhaps someone can find it and post it) that stated that they already have LOWER denom's printed and ready to go.... So where are they keeping them? They're probably in secure CBI warehouses.... NOT in the BANKS. If they were to start moving the lower denoms to the banks THAT folks would be a signal worth acting on... But if the Iraqi citizens are using USD and can already MAKE CHANGE for sales in the market place, The CBI can now do the RV without any fanfare or notice and afterward, move their lower denom's to the banks unencumbered. Okay, we're finally seeing this ALL come to fruition. Just a week ago we saw the CBI change their artificial float rate from 1170 to 1166 which was the first step in reassuring the Iraqi people that their IQD is getting stronger. Which by the way, the Iraqi people no longer have in great quantity. This should already be wetting their appetite for their IQD again. (This action is like taking your foot off the gas pedal as you approach the exit coming off the freeway/turnpike) and TODAY Shabibi took action to slow it down even more... CBI seeks to restore confidence in the local currency against the dollar (This is totally akin to applying pressure to the BRAKE to slow the vehicle down as you prepare to make the BIG TURN to a new direction as you get off the speedway.) If I were looking for a SIGN that the CBI was believing that they were seeing the LAST of the Triple Zero notes trickling in from "In Country", THIS WOULD BE IT. With this article, the CBI now wants the Iraqi citizens to Have Faith in their IQD...OVER THE US DOLLAR... AGAIN! The people are now using USD and can make change. Here you go, They can now RV and have TWO currencies on the street at the same time as I showed you above. All the government needs to do now is get the Iraqi people to exchange their USD for IQD And the way they do that is to RV... Then they can swap out the USD for IQD at their own pace, without panicking the world into massive buying of dinar and owing even more. So, the next step in my humble opinion is the RV YEA!!! and simultaneous release of lower the denominations. This of course will come just as soon as they have the final security and laws in place to protect the event. We're seeing all of the positive movement from Iraq to finalize many laws and budgets this week, and it would appear that they have just about dotted all of their 'i's" and crossed all of their "T's" Go RV. Thanks for a well thought out, reasoned, approach to this dynamic and ever-changing drama. Captain Ringnut, you rock! Kathleen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russell M Posted January 25, 2012 Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 Whew! He has great lungs! Personally, its riskier than a Penny stock but at the same time it draws me. So I cannot EXPECT anything to actually go well - right - beat the odds - but for some reason, I do believe it will .....and thats my 2cents worth. PEaCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Montana Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 moved from the VIP section to the non-VIP section at the request of several members. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnyboyirish Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 you are not bad for a Detroit red wing nut Listen yeah, GO SHARKS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luigi1 Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 Excellent point. CBI already did this around Thanksgiving. BondLady did a talk call in on this very subject. CBI did a in country devaluation of the IQD to get Iraqis to turn in their big IQD notes for USD they were hoarding. It worked. More USD was purchased at currency auctions. This got 2 Billion in large bills off the streets of Iraq if i'm not mistaking. The more IQD CBI can get off the streets, the cheaper & smoother the transition. It can't get most of the big bills back but some will cash in early & settle for a smaller spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lotsofdinar Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 (edited) The 900 pound gorilla in the room of this theory is that, according to popular belief, there are, among average folks like us and governments around the world, trillions of Dinar outside Iraq that the auctions they are holding can't bring in. So regardless of their success of getting their own people to trade all their Dinar for dollars, Iraq would still be liable for trillions of dollars if they RVed. The theory that they are trying to suck all the Dinar off the Iraqi streets to lesson the financial impact of an RV only makes sense if there is little currency outside the country, or if they limit exchange to only currency inside the country. Edited January 27, 2012 by lotsofdinar 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
757 Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 Very well done Sir! What does our fearless leader think of Cap's breakdown?? Hello Wingnut, I worked with a person who went by Wingnut. If it is you and you worked out of MDT, please respond. Rick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyingfred Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 This is one of the best posts on this subject I have seen. I have filed this in my permanent files for future thiought and review. We are sliding down the glideslope with 100 feet to go looking for the "runway environment" ! COME ON RV! :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pozitivethinker Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 900 pound gorilla in the room of this theory is that, according to popular belief, there are, among average folks like us and governments around the world, trillions of Dinar outside Iraq that the auctions they are holding can't bring in. So regardless of their success of getting their own people to trade all their Dinar for dollars, Iraq would still be liable for trillions of dollars if they RVed. The theory that they are trying to suck all the Dinar off the Iraqi streets to lesson the financial impact of an RV only makes sense if there is little currency outside the country, or if they limit exchange to only currency inside the country. Ummm, I gave you a plus +1 but it gave you a neg instead! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFnHappy Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 900 pound gorilla in the room of this theory is that, according to popular belief, there are, among average folks like us and governments around the world, trillions of Dinar outside Iraq that the auctions they are holding can't bring in. So regardless of their success of getting their own people to trade all their Dinar for dollars, Iraq would still be liable for trillions of dollars if they RVed. The theory that they are trying to suck all the Dinar off the Iraqi streets to lesson the financial impact of an RV only makes sense if there is little currency outside the country, or if they limit exchange to only currency inside the country. Additionally, imagine how "Joe Iraqi" is going to feel after he realizes he has been duped into dumping his IQD for USD because the IQD was intentionally devalued only to find out his newly aquired USD is going to buy back far less IQD after the proposed revaluation. A rv will only help Iraqis if those Iraqis are holding IQD at the time of a rv. All reports indicate that there is still a substantial portion of the population that lives "day to day". The IQD auctions work, not because people around the worldwant the notes for a colorful substitute for wall paper, they want them because of their perceived future value. Read more: The auctions don't work because of "perceived future value", because the auctions don't sell IQD.....but yes, people around the world who bought IQD did so because of it's "perceived future value". I don't debate that the value will not increase, but rather how that value will be achieved....rv, rd, or slow climb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blu Collar Guru Posted January 27, 2012 Report Share Posted January 27, 2012 MY OPINION/ THEORY OF WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE "RV" IS: THE DAY IRAQ BECOMES A MEMBER OF THE W.T.O. ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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