Adam Chat 9/21/11 11:00am "ish" :)

[Golfnsr]

By far,the best chat yet.

Adam and al lo fthose with the good questions, thank you.

[caleb08]

This chat was the best Adam. Thank you .

[The Jonald]

Adam - I just cannot see chapter 7 being lifted "any day now" with Iraq being so unstable. The remaining resolutions deal with WMDs, and personally i feel that Sadr and others are too close to the government to allow them to hold or purchase weapons that they could use to influence policy (ie korea). Also, I am unclear why you don't think the resolutions lifted (economic resolutions) are enough to move beyond chapter 7. I am concerned we keep looking for that other thing. First it was elections, then GOI, then chapter 7, HCL, and others. GOI is formed people, that is why they are voting on issues. Military is operation, albeit with our support, but my private contractors say that the Iraqi army is only allowed to run security at this point. Everytime there is progress we end up saying it must be something else they have to get done, then boom an RV will hit. You have mentioned that you believe an RV could happen right after the lifting of chapter 7, is that just a gut feeling? Sorry for the questions now, but I just saw the chat announcement now.

i saw two different articles in the news that iraq is buying 30 f-16's from the us, looks like they are planning. chpt 7 will be lifted soon.

[Adam Montana]

kcw, I want to extend a special thanks to you. Other than the time there was a long delay and I thought you may have been kidnapped, you were amazingly quick with the questions - thank you for making this chat such a success!

[DiNaR DoCtOr]

i saw two different articles in the news that iraq is buying 30 f-16's from the us, looks like they are planning. chpt 7 will be lifted soon.

That is true, I cannot deny that they want and may get jets. This may be a dumb question, but do they qualify as WMDs? Also, do you think a purchase of jets relates to an RV? I am not saying it can't happen; rather, I just admit to having a hard time connecting the two. Thanks for the reply friend!

[FlintNPebbles]

That is true, I cannot deny that they want and may get jets. This may be a dumb question, but do they qualify as WMDs? Also, do you think a purchase of jets relates to an RV? I am not saying it can't happen; rather, I just admit to having a hard time connecting the two. Thanks for the reply friend!

As I understand it the jets are not equipped as fighting jets any longer. They have the capablities but the equipment is no longer there. So although they will have the jets they won't have the ability to arm them until the sanctions have been lifted. Once they are free from Chap 7 then they will be able to purchase the equipment to use them to defend their country. If I am wrong....please let me know

[cisole]

Thanks for the Chat Adam, and the post kcw

[cooked]

Thanks for the Chat Adam, and the post kcw

Here little pink piggy piggy

[almondeyes]

Love this format,,, It really helps me to understand questions and answers, as I can read and re-read as many times as necessary... this mind is not on full cycle some times. I do miss hearing ADAMS voice and the inflection in his answers. Thanks to all for all your work.. Pray RV soon..

[BrokeNoMore]

If you do not want to read anything at all straying from "great chat Adam", then please skip this post.

first, indeed thanks for the chat (the format is good) and for the site. I'm not paying and I'm both learning and enjoying myself! There are however three points I'd beg to differ on wrt this evenings chat.

Everyone that I read on this site that speaks intelligently about an RD (a re-denomination) uses that term to mean the issuing of a new and different currency that over a period of a perhaps a year or two is exchanged with the existing currency at a fixed exchange rate (e.g. 1000:1). Yet Adam used it to mean just printing lower denominations of the existing currency. This is just poor terminology in my view which will lead only to confusion.

In the same point Adam refers to "L0psters" as folks that "can't understand how the Dinar could possibly go up in value ". But as has been expressed many times in these forums, those like myself that think an RD is coming fully accept that both current and new dinar can, and hopefully will go up in value. Just not as high as the 120x (to $0.10 USD) that Adam is guestimating let alone 1000x or 3000x as others envision. The disagreement is not about the possibility of change in value but about the degree of that change. I think 1.5x is pretty likely and 12x i.e. to a penny, is the outside limit.

There are many factors to consider in an analysis of how big of an RV might be workable and a chat is not the place to lay all that out. But my concern is that the chat flow followed a classic logical fallacy in that first he shows why $3 won't work, then uses that to say $0.10 is more likely, but offers no support that $0.10 isn't also unworkable. It's a very easy trap to fall into just due to time and space constraints. Maybe Adam is correct and a RV to a most wonderful $0.10 is workable, but in this chat all we saw is support that a $3 RV is unlikely, not that $0.10 is likely.

In such a chaotic situation as this investment its very hard to know what is going to happen (we'd all already be zillionares if we could make accurate predictions in this realm just in the "regular" world, let alone for Iraq) I think what is good about this site is good information and healthy debate and I hope my comments contribute to that. At least I hope i don't go on mod review for this , once was enough thank you very much! and now I must go make dinner! ... thanks again Adam.

I think that anyone who believes they or anybody else has any ability whatsoever to nail down a number for what our investment will be worth, beyond pure speculation, is just a fool like so many gurus on other sites that have been saying the "RV will be tomorrow, guaranteed" for months, going on years. Nobody has a crystal ball, and at best it is an educated guess, some more educated than others. If that were not the case, entire fortunes would not have been lost in the stock market in the last decade. I believe it is wisdom that Adam always resists giving numbers, and time frames, because nobody can know, and he knows it. This is reason enough for Adam to have earned my respect.

Adam is a pretty sharp guy, and always states clearly that his "number" is a "guess." He gets a ration if he doesn't make a guess, folks beg him for a guess. Then he gets a ration when he does make a guess and doesn't write a book explaining all of the ins, outs, and whytofores.

We ask him for his opinion, because we value what he thinks, and believe that he has insight that the rest of us don't have.

I'd like to see posts like this in the future more along the lines of a discussion than as an oppositional expression. I think there's merit in what you pointed out, but I'm irritated by the tone with which it was delivered.

And I am paying, and that means nothing, except that I am going to be better prepared and protected with my kazillions than you will be.

[xyzzy]

I'd like to see posts like this in the future more along the lines of a discussion than as an oppositional expression. I think there's merit in what you pointed out, but I'm irritated by the tone with which it was delivered.

I didn't mean for there to be a irritating tone, I just wanted to present some things I disagree on.

[SurfingTheDinarWave]

I didn't mean for there to be a irritating tone, I just wanted to present some things I disagree on.

I agree with brokenomore, xyzzy, nothing against you personally, as we have discussed this many times there are too many factors in this investment where the numbers are either missing or there is a unclear understanding on mainly due to the misinformation coming from Iraq and not knowing what is and isn't. As far as numbers on a rv rate many missing factors from that geological & geothermal survey are involved and are not publicly known as of yet. As far as the question of RD you had the way Adam explained, it is exactly what it is in the most simple form, although for it to work it must happen after a new rate of exchange or RV must happen first otherwise if you have 5 dinar at the current rate it would literally be worthless as compare to what is now we already hold toilet paper the new currency would replace toilet paper and what we now hold would be tissues because It would be an upgrade.

Lastly, the current global financial situation is in dire straights, and they are working on a reset as Fox News called it 2 weeks ago, wouldn't it be safe to assume that is how the the announcement would come to take the fan fare away from Iraq as a part of a global financial reset, and thinking of Iraq as just a country of itself is too limited and small, the former regime owed countries all over the world millions upon billions, and they still are liable for it if they do not RV it has been forgiven 80-100% by almost all of those countries under the notion they would RV in order to pay it back by using their holdings as a reserve currency. What do you think would happen if they (Iraq) L0p their currency, if you were personally their creditor, which is what we as dinarians are because the USD they use right now came from us buying the dinar we hold?

I'll let you answer before I tell you mine.

[xyzzy]

I agree with brokenomore, xyzzy, nothing against you personally, as we have discussed this many times there are too many factors in this investment where the numbers are either missing or there is a unclear understanding on mainly due to the misinformation coming from Iraq and not knowing what is and isn't.

If there is no way to set any limits on this, then Adam is completely wrong that it is unlikely to go to $3 right away. Right? I think that is a silly view. Of couse there will be a pretty wide margin of error in any estimate, but we can set some broad limits by looking at what the impact to their economy would be if such and such a rate were set. I think that analysis says it can't get bigger than about a penny. If they officially pass the RD at 1000:1 then it can't be bigger than about 2x-3x the current rate.

As far as numbers on a rv rate many missing factors from that geological & geothermal survey are involved and are not publicly known as of yet.

What is in the ground is not a factor for the rate. Its a factor for confidence in ongoing growth but not in the current rate. The Saudi's have about this same amount of oil and their exchange rate is $0.27 right? Why? Because that is what is supported by their economy and the size of their money supply. The same factors are in play for Iraq (and every other country).

As far as the question of RD you had the way Adam explained, it is exactly what it is in the most simple form,

You lost me here. Adam used an RD to mean just printing lower denominations of the current currency. That is NOT how an RD is defined. This is not a matter of what you believe will happen, but just keeping our terms straight so we can communication.

What do you think would happen if they (Iraq) L0p their currency, if you were personally their creditor, which is what we as dinarians are because the USD they use right now came from us buying the dinar we hold?

I'll let you answer before I tell you mine.

If Iraq RD's at 1000:1 then the new dianr 25 notes I could exchange the 25,000 IQD notes I hold are both worth exactly the same amount, so as has been said many times, it is value neutral. No one is ripped off. Edited September 23, 2011 by xyzzy

[SurfingTheDinarWave]

If there is no way to set any limits on this, then Adam is completely wrong that it is unlikely to go to $3 right away. Right? I think that is a silly view. Of couse there will be a pretty wide margin of error in any estimate, but we can set some broad limits by looking at what the impact to their economy would be if such and such a rate were set. I think that analysis says it can't get bigger than about a penny. If they officially pass the RD at 1000:1 then it can't be bigger than about 2x-3x the current rate.

No it's highly likely to start close enough to what they need to define their budget, granted they can go in debt over their budget but they can't float the whole budget in debt already starting in debt with a budget of 138 Trillion

What is in the ground is not a factor for the rate. Its a factor for confidence in ongoing growth but not in the current rate. The Saudi's have about this same amount of oil and their exchange rate is $0.27 right? Why? Because that is what is supported by their economy and the size of their money supply. The same factors are in play for Iraq (and every other country).

What's in the ground does support their economy because it fuels investment, so they can get what's in the ground out, most people forget that is how it does so

You lost me here. Adam used an RD to mean just printing lower denominations of the current currency. That is NOT how an RD is defined. This is not a matter of what you believe will happen, but just keeping our terms straight so we can communication.

An Rd in true definition terms an example is like what the USA did with the 5000, 1000, & 500 dollar notes which was to take them back in exchange for the exact face value in lower denominations any definition other than that is a L0p and is incorrect, which is the cultural difference in the terms "Delete the zeros"

If Iraq RD's at 1000:1 then the new dianr 25 notes I could exchange the 25,000 IQD notes I hold are both worth exactly the same amount, so as has been said many times, it is value neutral. No one is ripped off.

This is not an answer to my question, but here's mine: I'm a creditor of Iraq I bought their worthless notes for their benefit as an investment with the understanding they would RV to pay me back PLUS INTEREST my interest rate is ridiculously high because you stand to make trillions just because I did this to help you in a time of need. Now the countries who Iraq owes had way more at stake and much longer this debt has been outstanding if I were the country who loaned you billions and you gave me worthless notes to pay it back telling me for holding it I would be rewarded greatly when we RV and to keep it as a reserve currency and didn't do it not only would you have the investors who are your creditors keeping your country going in the now coming after you with lawsuits but you would have countries doing it as well and they would just wipe you off the map and forget about you taking everything you own. This is the way this is viewed in any investment or loan situation and this one is no different!!

[frankc]

Excellent new format. Thanks. Much much better.

I sure hope things go the way you say and we see that RV this year.

[xyzzy]

No it's highly likely to start close enough to what they need to define their budget, granted they can go in debt over their budget but they can't float the whole budget in debt already starting in debt with a budget of 138 Trillion

The budget might be a factor, but I don't really see how. Please explain how the budget factors into to dianr/dollar exchange rate.

For the sake of argument lets say the exchange rate is tied to the budget somehow. The 2011 budget was (is) 102T dianr, so the proposed 2012 budget at 138T is an increase of 35%. So an RV of 1.35:1 (or $0.00086 to $0.0012) would be called for based on the budget idea. But you are claiming it has to be a hundred times that right?

What's in the ground does support their economy because it fuels investment, so they can get what's in the ground out, most people forget that is how it does so

Sure, but it does not directly impact the exchange rate. Having a stable source of foreign income will certainly help grow the economy and has the economy grows the value of the money supply will also have to grow. If the size of the money supply grows less then the GDP, then indeed the dinar is likely to increase in value. But folks use the oil in the ground to directly impact the rate now, and that is what is misguided.

An Rd in true definition terms an example is like what the USA did with the 5000, 1000, & 500 dollar notes which was to take them back in exchange for the exact face value in lower denominations any definition other than that is a L0p and is incorrect, which is the cultural difference in the terms "Delete the zeros"

There is no such term as a "lop" that was invented on dinar web sites. An RD is

Investopedia explains Redenomination

1. For example, the Bulgarian lev was redenominated due to inflation arising at the end of the Second World War. After the redenomination, one "new" lev was equal to 100 "old" levs. The lev was redenominated three times in the twentieth century.

2. A recent example of redenomination arose when the euro was introduced and the denomination on many European securities had to be changed to the euro.

What you describe for the US was not a monetary event at all, let alone a redenomination. it was just deciding not to print any more large bills (that they printed very few of to begin with). A redenomination happens to the entire currency, not just some notes. Please find me an authoritative source (i.e. not a posting on a dinar site) that calls this a redenomination for the US currency.

This is not an answer to my question, but here's mine: I'm a creditor of Iraq I bought their worthless notes for their benefit as an investment with the understanding they would RV to pay me back PLUS INTEREST my interest rate is ridiculously high because you stand to make trillions just because I did this to help you in a time of need.

Oh give me a break, you did this FOR Iraq? Come on, cut the BS man. Further the notes you bought are not worthless. And how did this help Iraq? With 24T in Iraq, 8T in the banks and an M2 of 60T, that leave an absolute maximum of 20T dianr that could possibly be in the hands of investors (if it is this high it is a huge exchange liability problem for an RV of even $0.10 by the way). So that's about 17B USD, over the last 8 years so about 500M USD per year, hardly some amount that is going to make a huge difference to Iraq. If the amount in investors hands is only say 2T, then of course its initial purchase price is all the less consequential to iraq. If you had the understanding that you were going to make 100,000% on your investment that is entirely your (false) expectation, Iraq did not promise you this in any way shape or form. Edited September 23, 2011 by xyzzy

[MovieMaker]

Thank you.

[SR71_Blackbird]

9/23/11

I know I'm a little late on this but, WHAT A GREAT FORMAT AND TERRIFIC IMPROVEMENT OVER 'OTHER' FORMATS/PLATFORMS. FINALLY, I CAN READ AND UNDERSTAND WITHOUT A CODE BOOK TO INTERPRET. KEEP IT UP!!!