Adam Montana Weekly 26 Feb 2020

[Pitcher]

23 minutes ago, md11fr8dawg said:

The point is the fundamentals of the economy are still solid. Massive drop due to fear, which in real life panic can be deadly.

 

It was an ironic twist of fate that the January economic numbers came out yesterday and they were better than expected.  Markets rise or fall on higher/lower earnings or guidance of higher / lower earnings.  It’s really that simple.  The Hospitality Sector is getting hit hard because of lack of potential earnings in the coming quarters.  The Energy Sector is getting hammered because China’s factories are closed.  

 

There is just too much uncertainty of when the virus will subside and too much fear of what will happen if it spreads to the US.  The supply chains have been broken and products are not being shipped to the US.  That will eventually start hurting retail stores as they can’t get their merchandise to sell.  You can see if this isn’t curtailed fairly soon it will have a monstrous ripple effect in our economy.  

 

The fallicy of having one country like China being the world’s manufacturing center is really “coming home to bear”.   I read the other day that 80% of our pharmaceuticals are made in China.  That is crazy.  

 

The good news is this, eventually this crisis will end and there will be a big recovery. The demand is still there and people will always need new cars, homes, computers, food, and leisure.  

[Pitcher]

Here is a Weekly chart going back to 1993. Starting in 1995 you can see for that era the giant rise in the S&P 500 as the Internet gained acceptance.  By 2000 the dot com craze was reaching its peak and then reality hit.  By 2004 we recovered and then we started selling homes to anyone who was breathing, thus creating the housing/financial bust.  Starting in 2009 you can see what QE and low interest rates have created.   To say we have been living in unprecedented financial times is an understatement.  I won’t go into the politics and Fed policies of how and why this was all thrust on us, I just wanted you all to see a different perspective of a long term chart.  

 

I hope you can see from this chart why some with a proper financial upbringing could hate the 2009 recovery, assisted by QE and an easy monetary environment by the Fed. 

You can also see why others have said the “Trend is your Friend” and played this all the way up.  

 

Now on look at the drops during the last 25 years.  Notice how when the Price breaks the 50 ema we tend to test that 200 ema. ( 50 in teal, 200 in green).  When you look at the current drop you can see we breached the 50 ema going down.  Will we bounce or will we test that 200 ema and then bounce like in 2012, 2016, and late 2018.  When you look at our last week you can see that it was a historical descent.  I think we get a relief rally and then maybe a test to that 200 ema but it will all depend on the NEWS and how that news is PRESENTED.   In an Election year don’t be surprised to see this event politicized.  It’s already started.   ( It’s shameful and unnecessary and all it creates is panic and stupid thinking). 

 

[Synopsis]

2 hours ago, Pitcher said:

In an Election year don’t be surprised to see this event politicized.  It’s already started.   ( It’s shameful and unnecessary and all it creates is panic and stupid thinking). 

 

My opinion is this is Deep State related. Joe Biden, et. al, is associated with Chinese related corruption. The booming economy is a big help to show economic facilitators are in place and working. Neither the Bidens, of course, Deep State, or China want The True The United States Of America Patriot President Donald J Trump reelected for a second term 238 days from now. So, I suspect a lot of economic hanky panky in the mean time.

 

The Corona Virus' effect on humanity is a concern but no big deal. Merely 2% of those infected die from it being young, old, and infirm although just as important as anyone else lends to the fact that bioweapons should never be intentionally or unintentionally released to spread as spread may to test for other more potent bioweapons.

 

Case in point. Why is there no outcry by national leaders to chastise the Chinese for having a bioweapons manufacturing facility in the first place and being so negligent as to allow release of a bioweapon to the general public to spread world wide?

 

The Moral Of The Story here is whether or not it is published in the media, the Deep State Actors are likely about to get their hind quarters handed to them for working over drive in conjunction with the Chinese to institute calamities (financial especially).

 

Last time around, it was falsely portrayed as Russia collusion. THIS time around it will be falsely portrayed as China collusion for The True The United States Of America Patriot President Donald J Trump's reelection on November 3, 2020. The advantage now is The True The United States Of America Patriot President Donald J Trump is the sitting President Of The United States Of America AND will deal with the Deep State actors as they show their hands with illicit activities.

 

My opinion is this whole issue will be quelled and things will return to an equitable equilibrium whether or not the DOW returns to 29,000ish in a month or so. In the mean time, the bears and bulls will have it out with a relative stand off leading to a reasonably bullish return.

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Pitcher]

Thanks for your opinion Synopsis.  You know more about the behind the scenes than me.  I just Trade what I see and try not to get to involved in politics, deep state, globalists, Illuminati, Rothchilds, conspiracy BS.  Give me a decent chart and I can make money in an up or down market.  If the Revolution starts please let me know.  I will gladly fight for freedom.  

 

[Synopsis]

Just now, Pitcher said:

Thanks for your opinion Synopsis.

 

I certainly appreciate Your facts and opinions, Pitcher, Thank You! 

 

Just now, Pitcher said:

You know more about the behind the scenes than me.

 

Connect-the-dots really. One of my gifts that is mostly generally accurate. So, I share. 

 

1 minute ago, Pitcher said:

 I just Trade what I see and try not to get to involved in politics, deep state, globalists, Illuminati, Rothchilds, conspiracy BS.

 

Best idea. Rabbit holes are endless. Trade strategies, properly constructed and applied, are truly beneficial. 

 

2 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

Give me a decent chart and I can make money in an up or down market.

 

Bravo, Sir!!! 

 

3 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

If the Revolution starts please let me know.  I will gladly fight for freedom.

 

Oh, Yeah, Pitcher, I will stand with You and get Your Six!!! 

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Pitcher]

Coronavirus outbreak could send the US economy into RECESSION if it reaches pandemic and mass quarantines are put in place

• Analysts fear that coronavirus has the potential to send US into a recession
• A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
• Quarantines and sickness could put a temporary dent in productivity and output
• Stock markets had convulsed this week amid investor fears of such an outcome 

PUBLISHED: 13:44 EST, 29 February 2020 | UPDATED: 13:44 EST, 29 February 2020 

 

Fears are mounting that the coronavirus outbreak could send the American economy into a recession if it reaches pandemic levels, following the first confirmed death in the U.S.

 

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the economy's total output, or GDP.

Although the virus has an estimated mortality rate of just 2 to 3 percent, the potential for economic disruption is severe in the event of a widespread outbreak, as evidenced by events in China where the virus originated. 

'This is a case where in economic terms the cure is almost worse than the disease,'' said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 'When you quarantine cities ... you lose economic activity that you're not going to get back.'

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial average lost 463 points, or 1.8 percent, at the opening bell.

The coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, China, has sickened at least 83,652 people and killed 2,861 in 53 countries, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization. The virus has infected at least one person on every continent except Antarctica. 

What is the difference between a market crash and a recession?

Stock markets are ultimately predictions about the real economy. Share prices move up and down as investors adjust their predictions about companies' future profits.

The economy itself is measured by total productivity and output, or GDP.

A recession is typically defined as negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters.

While a market crash can predict a recession, it doesn't always. Often the stock market declines without any subsequent dip in the real economy.

In rare cases, however, a severe market crash can actually cause a recession, if consumers and businesses reduce their spending in response to falling asset values.

 

If it reaches pandemic levels, U.S. employers could their make workers stay home, travel could be cut off, and officials could lock down neighborhoods and close schools. 

The wide-ranging efforts to halt the spread of the illness would threaten jobs, paychecks and profits. 

'If we start to see more cases in the United States, if we start to see people not traveling domestically, if we start to see people stay home from work and from stores, then I think the hit is going to get substantially worse,' said Gus Faucher, an economist at PNC Financial. 

Online retail giant Amazon has already taken measures, saying Friday that it has asked all of its 800,000 employees to postpone any non-essential travel, both within the country and internationally. 

Stock markets are ultimately predictions about the real economy, and U.S. markets plunged again on Friday as investors reacted to fears that the virus will have significant impacts on corporate profits.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index took yet another hit, closing down nearly 360 points. The index has dropped more than 14% from a recent high, making this the market's worst week since 2008, during the global financial crisis. 

A five-day view of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows the cumulative declines this week

Globally, markets have seen some $6 trillion wiped off share prices, or about 10 percent of the total value.

Outbreaks in Japan, South Korea, Iran and Italy have already illustrated the dramatic economic impact the virus can have. 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a 270 billion yen ($2.5 billion) emergency economic package to help fight the virus. Abe said at a news conference that Japan is at critical juncture to determine whether the country can keep the outbreak under control ahead of the Tokyo summer Olympics.

Abe, whose announcement this past week of a plan to close all schools for more than a month through the end of the Japanese academic year sparked public criticism, said the emergency package includes financial support for parents and their employers affected by the closures.

'Frankly speaking, this battle cannot be won solely by the efforts of the government,' Abe said Saturday. 'We cannot do it without understanding and cooperation from every one of you, including medical institutions, families, companies and local governments.'

 

Streets were deserted in the city of Sapporo on Japan´s northernmost main island of Hokkaido, where a state of emergency was issued until mid-March. Seventy cases - the largest from a single prefecture in Japan - have been detected in the island prefecture. 

South Korea, the second hardest hit country, reported 813 new cases Saturday - the highest daily jump since confirming its first patient in late January and raising its total to 3,150.

Tokyo Disneyland and Universal Studios Japan announced they would close, and events that were expected to attract tens of thousands of people were called off, including a concert series by the K-pop group BTS.

Tourist arrivals in Thailand are down 50% compared with a year ago, and in Italy - which has the most reported cases of any country outside of Asia - hotel bookings are falling and Premier Giuseppe Conte raised the specter of recession. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8059977/Coronavirus-outbreak-send-economy-RECESSION.html

[Pitcher]

Looking at the Futures for tomorrow’s Stock Market action and they are up over 250.

The catalyst is the Bank of Japan is providing a stimulus of 4 B 

Gold, Silver, and Oil are all up.  

 

Looks like I’ll be playing green tomorrow.  

[Pitcher]

Dow Futures now down -191.   Mmmm,  volatility anyone.   One needs to be very calm and have a plan.  Sometimes the best trade is no trade.  

[Adam Montana]

Today is going to be a wild one I bet!

[Pitcher]

Futures now up 200. I’m expecting some wild swings as the algo traders have a field day with these conditions.  They really need to think about reinstating the uptick Rule to curtail some of the big swings which are causing fear and panic.  

 

I’ll be sitting on my hands the first 30-45 minutes.  

[Adam Montana]

17 minutes ago, Pitcher said:

Futures now up 200. I’m expecting some wild swings as the algo traders have a field day with these conditions.  They really need to think about reinstating the uptick Rule to curtail some of the big swings which are causing fear and panic.  

 

I’ll be sitting on my hands the first 30-45 minutes.  

 

It's not often I crank up my attention to the news feeds, but this is one of those times. It won't take much for the market to go full tilt

[Pitcher]

I’m seeing people nibbling in some of the great tech companies and I’m also seeing people selling into strength.  

 

I have traded TVIX and have a position in CLX

[Pitcher]

We have a very tenuous rally going on now.  You can literally see some people nibbling  trying to catch this falling knife market.  I’m still in CLX and added AAPL.  I have stops on both so we’ll see what shakes. So far the trades are holding and doing well.  

[Pitcher]

 

I just wanted you guys to see my world and my trade desk.  I have a lot of information available at any given moment.  It looks crazy and it can be if I let my focus wonder.  I spend most of my time on one monitor but as you can see I have numerous scans and watch lists running.  

 

Just sold my clx but Aapl still going

[Pitcher]

Just exited AAPL.  Wow, monster run. 

 

We got the bounce I was waiting for, now we need to see if it holds.  I suspect we will go higher on news of a possible Fed cut in interest rates over the next few days  but I think this is a relief rally.   At some point in the next week to a few weeks we will retest the lows of last week ( or maybe even goes lower on bad news and panic selling). before the S&P can have a sustained rally.   The word for our market these days is VOLATILITY.  I can’t give you the exact timing of what will happen, no one can, too much uncertainty.  Be careful out there, it’s a treacherous market.  

 

While I wait for a more buyable rally I will continue to Day Trade what I see. 

[Synopsis]

YYYEEEAAAHHH BBBAAABBBYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

https://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=INDEX_DJI

 

Go Moola Nova!

[Pitcher]

Fed greases the wheel, . 50 cut.  Providing liquidity.  Market does a complete turnaround in minutes.  

[Pitcher]

Geez, I was in a short and got out ASAP.  Sitting here watching now waiting for the dust to settle.  I think this makes me feel a slow down in business from the Corona crisis is going to be worse than previous thought.  It makes me more anxious.  

Obvious the market is nervous as well.  The market is now down.  

[Pitcher]

Here is my thought.  THE FED CANNOT CURE THE Coronavirus.  

 

All the Central Banks need to coordinate if they are trying to soften the coming drop in business from the Corona.   Adding liquidity to the markets will help some but it won’t help the supply chain. The message that needs to be addressed and I’m sure it will,  is that the Fed, the other Central Banks,  and Governments will do whatever it takes to get a recovery going once the virus runs its course.  

 

The market is now green.  Volatility as people try to figure out how to take this news and what it means.  

 

 

[Pitcher]

People pouring into gold and silver.  KL, Aem, Nem, Paas, Fnv, Slv, Gold,

 

Basic Metals is the top Sector today so far.

[boosterbglee]

Thanks for being on top it Pitcher, appreciate your time you give to DV!

[NoviceInvestor]

On 3/3/2020 at 2:04 AM, Pitcher said:

 

I just wanted you guys to see my world and my trade desk.  I have a lot of information available at any given moment.  It looks crazy and it can be if I let my focus wonder.  I spend most of my time on one monitor but as you can see I have numerous scans and watch lists running.  

 

Just sold my clx but Aapl still going

My head would be aching and my eyes seeing triple after looking at that many screens all day..Good luck to you 😊

[Pitcher]

I only made one trade today. Played KL for a decent gain.  Siting here watching the volatility.  I have certain patterns that I look for in a day trade. If I don’t see them I don’t trade.  It took me awhile today but I got my play.  

 

If you look at a Daily of the S&P it was pretty much expected  to see a drop after that big gain yesterday. The surprise today was the Fed announcement but that was pretty much already baked into the equation after it was telegraphed on Friday.  If you are a long term holder try not to worry too much. The Fed stated that they will provide low interest rates and liquidity to the markets to ease the problems to the economy caused by the CV.  What we have in the market now is a bunch of NOISE, rubbish, a rebalancing of portfolios and a trying to figure it out phase.  Granted last weeks drop was very dramatic and historical but again not too unexpected to me after a meteoric rise the last 4 months.  I’m watching for a retest of Friday’s lows and then for a possible retest of the Low in Dec of 2018 at some point.  I’m not saying we will go to the 2018 lows, I’m saying that low was never retested and it’s a possibility from a Technical viewpoint.  

 

In in the meantime we will continue to see a volatile market as it reacts to each item of news that comes out, which is great for traders but instills fear in the general public who don’t want to see their 401k’s chopped up.  Remember what I said last week. The 50 ema has not crossed the 200 ema yet.  If you are a long term holder you should not fret over a 8-12% drop, especially since the markets were up so much last year.  

 

What you will will want to see today is the Price of the S&P hold that 200 ma.  Also take a look at the RSI at the top of the page.  It’s low but not as much as after Friday’s and yesterday’s pop.  Below the chat you can see we are low on the MACD.

Watch for the dark line to cross up the red line for a better oppo to buy this sale in stocks. Don’t be in any hurry.  We have a tough few months with this Virus and it’s going to hurt business, it already is in the oil and hospitality sectors.  

 

I’ll give you my thoughts as we go through all this, but as I stated  before, I’m giving this info as my opinion. Always do your own Due Diligence and consult your financial guy if you get worried.  I hope I’m providing you with some information that will ease your fears.  Education is always the way to a better understanding.  Unfortunately the financial guys profit off the fear they help create.  The market is and will always have it’s bad actors who try to manipulate it for their own gain.  

 

[Pitcher]

50 minutes ago, boosterbglee said:

Thanks for being on top it Pitcher, appreciate your time you give to DV!

 

Thank you boosterbglee.  I hope the info helps some.

 

Novice, my head does hurt sometimes watching all those monitors. I take lots of 5-10 min eye breaks.  Today, I bailed by 11:00 am ct.  I just didn’t like the action

 

 

 

 

[Synopsis]

DOW getting hammered AGAIN.

 

Just my opinion.

 

The CoronaVirus issue is way overblown.

 

A concern, yes.

 

Panic, no.

 

HOWEVER, the CoronaVirus Panic has found a fertile ground in the Stock Market. Among other things.

 

My gut feel (note the source HERE) is the CoronaVirus Panic is manufactured (within the manipulation apparatus) AND the associated bad actors are known who are perpetrating the CoronaVirus Panic. I suspect the 0.5 cut was intended but was also used to uncover/validate who and what is going on.

 

Further, my gut feel (note the source HERE) is the associated bad actors' behaviors will be "neutralized" with the correction, possibly controlled, subsequently applied. We may or may not see ANYTHING in the news. HOWEVER, seemingly unrelated "activity" may appear in the news Nationally AND/OR Internationally.

 

Week max.

 

Correction having solid traction BY Wednesday, April 1, 2020. NO FOOLIN'. Maybe crazy volatility (both up AND down) the next few days maybe through Monday, March 9.2020.

 

JUST MY (NOTE: MY) opinion, of course.

 

 

https://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=INDEX_DJI

 

Go Moola Nova!