What are the Odds...

[Snotrocket]

A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will get "killed" by Romney in November.

Wayne Allyn Root

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of *** marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again. But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

[cris]

Nice article Jules

I couldnt agree more....Maybe I'll blow a hundred

bucks on a very long shot bet......just for giggles.....bye-bye O'blah

[Snotrocket]

Nice article Jules

I couldnt agree more....Maybe I'll blow a hundred

bucks on a very long shot bet......just for giggles.....bye-bye O'blah

Thanks Cris. While I'm not very enthusiastic about Romney, I hope he mops the floor with Obummer! The American people need to send a very clear message to the progressives - HELL NO! This article makes some good points.....I'm encouraged by it.

[cris]

Im very enthusiastic....I think were going to see some major

changes back to the way our Country should be.

Im looking forward to a Business, & US Energy freindly administration.

Those are what we need to turn the Economy around....IMO of course

[DinarMillionaire]

Jules, I believe this guy has it right. I made the same prediction a couple months back on DV. The lame stream media is doing a good job of firing up conservatives by their made up polls that say Obama even has a chance. hahaha! The only way Obama could come close to a win is by a fraudulent election. Otherwise, it's a landslide that will make Carter look like he had a chance in 1980.

B HO has to go!

[Snotrocket]

Cris and DinarMillionaire - I hope you both are right. I'm really hoping Romney picks a solid conservative as his VP so I could get fired up too! Marco Rubio, Allen West, Paul Ryan, even Rand Paul would do it for me. I need something to get excited about!

[pattyangel]

A Las Vegas "odds maker" opines on why Obama will get "killed" by Romney in November.

Wayne Allyn Root

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of *** marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again. But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.

These are the main points, IMO that Mr.O hurt himself with. Jules great piece of information. Passing it on to my both sides of the aisle friends. I may get beaten down but I rather get beaten down with their opinions than having to get beaten down another 4 yrs.

I didn't know that Allen West was being considered. I like his thinking.

[tampa1000]

Jules, I believe this guy has it right. I made the same prediction a couple months back on DV. The lame stream media is doing a good job of firing up conservatives by their made up polls that say Obama even has a chance. hahaha! The only way Obama could come close to a win is by a fraudulent election. Otherwise, it's a landslide that will make Carter look like he had a chance in 1980.

B HO has to go!

I agree 100%!!!

[TPSprayduster]

If he picks the correct VP running mate it will be something similar to what Bill Clinton did to G H Bush. The odds should be high Romney will win.

[cooked]

Not to sound mean/cruel but I'm surprised he hasn't been assasinated during this term. I almost expected some whacko racist to try something in the first days. Luckily that didnt happen.

Go Romney.

[Redwizard]

As I love this article and SURE hope it is correct, but we have to look how Barry got in the first time. The media got Barry in the first time, they will have to continue to support him or they will have mud on there face. Also, Barry has all the money in the world behind him. As far as I know, he still hasnt listed where he got all his campaign money. Money can buy you anything in the country, even if you are an illegal.

[aliciadogz]

I sure hope this Gentelmen is right,but,I'm going to still pray every night, to the good the Lord to save America.

[steveh12]

I will tell You something.

If Mr. Romney does become President.

He better have jobs lined up for everybody.

People will only give Him 6- 12 Months.

If There are No Jobs, He will be wishing that He

Never ran for Office.

People want jobs NOW!!

They won't hang around waiting for 1,2,3, or 4 years of the Romney Presendency (sp)

So I wouldn't be Gloating if Mr. Romney Wins.

Also If Pres. Romney does not End Obama Care on Day 1 like His Ads Say. He is GONE.

Pres. Obama stated He would end the Iraq War on the 1st Day.

Well It did not happen, Alot People got P i ssed.

I wonder If The State of Massachusetts wil SUE Pres. Romney if He ends Obama Care

and leaves Mass with Romney Care.

I know I will sue the Man. Alot of People in Mass will SUE.

[Snotrocket]

As I love this article and SURE hope it is correct, but we have to look how Barry got in the first time. The media got Barry in the first time, they will have to continue to support him or they will have mud on there face. Also, Barry has all the money in the world behind him. As far as I know, he still hasnt listed where he got all his campaign money. Money can buy you anything in the country, even if you are an illegal.

No one is watching the mainstream media - their numbers drop daily. Fox out-rates them all put together in every time slot...

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/07/13/cable-news-ratings-for-thursday-july-12-2012/141512/

People are tired of being lied to and told what to think........at least I hope so.

[NEODinar]

Obama wasn't supposed to win the first election either. Lol! DV might just implode come november.

[mrmcwhipit]

Election fraud or martial law heading our way? I dont trust this guy and his corrupt

administration one bit. Lets hope Romney wins and sends him packing.

[Redwizard]

Election fraud or martial law heading our way? I dont trust this guy and his corrupt

administration one bit. Lets hope Romney wins and sends him packing.

Lets hope we make it to an election before King Barry announces martial law.....

[DumNDumer]

I sure hope this Gentelmen is right,but,I'm going to still pray every night, to the good the Lord to save America.

MyDogz,

We surley must be praying!

We wouldn't be in this mess if there had been more praying last time.

The enemy threw a vail over manys eyes and it darkened there vision.

Blessings

Luci

[DumNDumer]

I sure hope this Gentelmen is right,but,I'm going to still pray every night, to the good the Lord to save America.

MyDogz,

We surley must be praying!

We wouldn't be in this mess if there had been more praying last time.

The enemy threw a vail over manys eyes and it darkened there vision.

Blessings

Luci

[George2351]

We cannot afford "Barry" another four years. I shudder to think where our country will be in four years if he gets in again. I think the world will be a different place too. So goes America, so goes the rest of the world too. Our economy goes down the tubes so goes the other nations. Corruption also runs deep in the elections so we need to keep an eye on the key states and watch those voting numbers. I wouldn't put it past the dems to tamper with all of that stuff. Even when Romney gets into office, he is going to have a real challenge because of what this present administratioin has put into place. It will take us years to dig out of the mess that we are in at the present time. I pray that the American people wake up and votes Obama out in a landslide way. I want to see a huge statement that we are not going to go the way of the socialist, communist way of thinking. Our private sector is going to be at the top of the list and the union thug way of doing things is out the window. I know it can happen. Thank God for our for fathers that had enough for thought to put our democratic way of voting and all of the protection of the Constitution to keep us safe from a government that could harm the American people.

[Snotrocket]

We cannot afford "Barry" another four years. I shudder to think where our country will be in four years if he gets in again. I think the world will be a different place too. So goes America, so goes the rest of the world too. Our economy goes down the tubes so goes the other nations. Corruption also runs deep in the elections so we need to keep an eye on the key states and watch those voting numbers. I wouldn't put it past the dems to tamper with all of that stuff. Even when Romney gets into office, he is going to have a real challenge because of what this present administratioin has put into place. It will take us years to dig out of the mess that we are in at the present time. I pray that the American people wake up and votes Obama out in a landslide way. I want to see a huge statement that we are not going to go the way of the socialist, communist way of thinking. Our private sector is going to be at the top of the list and the union thug way of doing things is out the window. I know it can happen. Thank God for our for fathers that had enough for thought to put our democratic way of voting and all of the protection of the Constitution to keep us safe from a government that could harm the American people.

Well said, George. It certainly is going to be interesting from now til November.

[BrokeNoMore]

Well said, George. It certainly is going to be interesting from now til November.

I think Romney has a pretty good chance, but I don't think it's in the bag.

Obama has alienated lots of people to be sure, but we have to remember that people are going to vote with their money, and lots of people's jobs were created in government by Obama, and lots more are on the dole, plus lots of dead people are going to be voting.

Then you've got a very small constituency of Ron Paul supporters who can't pull their head out and notice their leader didn't win the nomination, and will just write him in insisting that he can win. You have to pick your battles. If you can't win a nomination in a 2 party system, you're not going to win an election. The math is pretty clear, and unfortunately Ron Paul seems to have most of his support from people with no math skills.

I think we need to be on our knees every day before Almighty God and pray for our country, for a reprieve, for at least some more time and this RV so we can prepare for the socialistic hostile takeover of our country, and survive. Romney might not be the "ideal" candidate, but he is better than the other options.

JMO

[skitealwedrop]

I think that Mr. Romney has a good chance too. I have been keeping up with some polls that clearly show he has an advantage. I'm not a huge fan of Romney's due to some personal fundamental issues. I will overlook them knowing that he is the best candidate for the job.

Go paxiderms!

[Black Swan]

I continue to go on record that I think it will be a very close race...a nail bitter until the end. But at this point, I'd have to give an ever so slight advantage to Obama. That could change at a drop of a hat.

I for one am really looking forward to the debates. From what I've seen, both men are accomplished speakers, so it should be very insightful to see how they approach the economy, world leadership and of course each other's records.

[littlefeet]

Lets hope we make it to an election before King Barry announces martial law.....

NO S**T !! if O gets down in the polls anymore and can't pull himself back, this is a good possibility... Marxist views and Socialistic Ideals, whatever it takes