What do these CBI spreadsheet line items mean?

[Pastor Tom]

This looks cut and dry. But, I’m just starring at the spreadsheet wondering if I’m reading it wrong. Please, somebody smarter than me tell me what these numbers mean.

Link: http://cbi.iq/index.php?pid=Statistics open spreadsheet and go to cells DH:81 & DH:71

(These could be two hugely important numbers)

Cell DH:71 Based on this spreadsheet, how much dinar is OUTSIDE the CBI currently?

Cell DH:81 Does this mean the CBI is “holding….sitting on” around 23,000,000,000,000 dinar inside the bank?

I've gotta be missing something!!! Help?

Edited April 6, 2012 by Pastor Tom

[dvforumuser]

What spreadsheet are you opening exactly, your link just goes to the stats page.

Off hand its not clear why Dinars at the CBI make any difference. They are the ones that can print them and destroy them as they please. So if indeed that IS what the cell represents, an interesting question is what other cells reference that one, what totals or other aggregations is it included in. In excel selecting the cell then doing tools -> trace dependents should show you this.

Edited April 6, 2012 by dvforumuser

[Pastor Tom]

"Key financial indicators" xcel spreadsheet under Statistical Documents

Sorry. Just trying to understand where the issued dinar is...

[HopefulTxn]

DH71 is stating that there is currently 900 billion dinars outstanding from the auctions that they do every two weeks... More on those auctions can be found HERE.

DH81 is referring to the cumulative customer account totals for banks (digital/electronic money) that are licensed by the CBI to operate within Iraq... It would basically be the total of BoA, Citibank, etc. here...

CX83 is referring to the cumulative total of physical cash being held by those banks.

The stated volume of physical IQD in circulation can be seen in cell CX79.

There's really no reason for the CBI to publish how much dinar they hold as it only becomes relevant (a liability) for them once it is released into public circulation.

For anyone wondering which spreadsheet Tom is referring to, it is the Key Financial Indicators MS Excel file available HERE.

[Darin]

Interesting:

Jan., Feb., & March

CW, CX, & CY

Line # 16 & Line # 17

In reference to their auctions, we see that amount sold in is less than amount redeemed. The #s are in millions

Jan would mean they pulled in 289,120 million (289B)

Feb would mean they pulled in 56,500 million (56B)

And in march they would have pulled in 50,000 million (50B)

If they're redeeming more than they're selling, wouldn't that be an indicator that less is out in circulation?

Which means, in the last 3 months alone, they've nearly pulled in roughly close to 400 Billion ID?

Now, that is not a substantial amount in comparison to what they claim exists, but over a period of time pulling in 50B or so per month will reduce the circulation & what is on the streets.

The trend would continue as long as the redemption exceeds the amount sold.

[dvforumuser]

Interesting:

Jan., Feb., & March

CW, CX, & CY

Line # 16 & Line # 17

In reference to their auctions, we see that amount sold in is less than amount redeemed. The #s are in millions

Jan would mean they pulled in 289,120 million (289B)

Feb would mean they pulled in 56,500 million (56B)

And in march they would have pulled in 50,000 million (50B)

If they're redeeming more than they're selling, wouldn't that be an indicator that less is out in circulation?

Which means, in the last 3 months alone, they've nearly pulled in roughly close to 400 Billion ID?

Now, that is not a substantial amount in comparison to what they claim exists, but over a period of time pulling in 50B or so per month will reduce the circulation & what is on the streets.

The trend would continue as long as the redemption exceeds the amount sold.

But even if such were the case (and I don't know) its not enough right? 50B/month * 12 months * say 5 years is 3T dinars. Or 10% of M1 or 5% of M2. Its a lot, but not enough to significantly change the liability issue imposed by a big RV. Edited April 6, 2012 by dvforumuser

[20MillionDinar]

But even if such were the case (and I don't know) its not enough right? 50B/month * 12 months * say 5 years is 3T dinars. Or 10% of M1 or 5% of M2. Its a lot, but not enough to significantly change the liability issue imposed by a big RV.

What if they were to slowly increase the value? Would this mean that they could do with less currency in circulation as each currency unit would have more value?

Raise the value in increments, withdraw from circulation slowly while they increase the value. Increase GDP, export more oil, encourage growth in the private sector, etc... This is definitely doable, in fact, this is the only reason why I'm still holding, for that chance that they DON'T "raise the 3 zeroes..."

Thoughts about the above possibility? I'm not talking about 1 or even 2 years. More like a 5-10 year plan.

Edited April 6, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[Darin]

But even if such were the case (and I don't know) its not enough right? 50B/month * 12 months * say 5 years is 3T dinars. Or 10% of M1 or 5% of M2. Its a lot, but not enough to significantly change the liability issue imposed by a big RV.

50B was the the last two months, and they had higher, so I was estimating conservatively and was using the 50B figure.

It would explain why it seems so much that is claimed to be in circulation seems to be in the hands of the CBI.

But, if the trend continues, it could help appreciate the value over time. Maybe the CBI intends to make more substantial changes over a longer period of time? Possibilities may be endless.

What if they were to slowly increase the value? Would this mean that they could do with less currency in circulation as each currency unit would have more value?

Raise the value in increments, withdraw from circulation slowly while they increase the value. Increase GDP, export more oil, encourage growth in the private sector, etc... This is definitely doable, in fact, this is the only reason why I'm still holding, for that chance that they DON'T "raise the 3 zeroes..."

Thoughts about the above possibility? I'm not talking about 1 or even 2 years. More like a 5-10 year plan.

Your idea of thinking is something that would appear as a logical possibility. But, if they're already reducing circulation as we speculate we are not seeing any change in value.

I foresee that area/region to progressively grow faster. (i.e., growth rate @ 30% 1st year, 60% 2nd year, and so forth...)

As more people go back to work, get steady jobs, and so forth the private sector will grow. All while the country itself, will be producing & exporting more oil. Foreign investors will see profitable possibilities and look to try and take advantage of the situation and maybe build businesses, which would lead to more jobs and more growth and so forth. Obviously, all of this will take some time, but the growth will continue to expand IMO.

Which is why I've thought it would be reasonable & fair for a slow appreciation of the currency, because a r/d would make the money supply more reasonable, but only for that given moment. They could execute a r/d, but the CBI will end up going back on a printing frenzy in due time to meet the demands of the businesses, people, and so forth.

[truthful1]

Heres the thing. if the rvs not inthe budget, they will need to release almost all the dinar theyve reclaimed. this budget is massive and willrequire more iqd. oil sales will be converted to dinar and thats how the goi will pay their budget and bills. so if theres nota rv, when they implement the budget there will be tons of dinar floating right back intothe economyto supportthe largest budget in iraqs history

Edited April 6, 2012 by truthful1

[drc85260]

This looks cut and dry. But, I’m just starring at the spreadsheet wondering if I’m reading it wrong. Please, somebody smarter than me tell me what these numbers mean.

Link: http://cbi.iq/index.php?pid=Statistics open spreadsheet and go to cells DH:81 & DH:71

(These could be two hugely important numbers)

Cell DH:71 Based on this spreadsheet, how much dinar is OUTSIDE the CBI currently?

Cell DH:81 Does this mean the CBI is “holding….sitting on” around 23,000,000,000,000 dinar inside the bank?

I've gotta be missing something!!! Help?

What I would like to see is line 86 and 87 filled in?

the M1 and M2 is the money supply

M0 would be the combined non liquid assets...also not shown?

What I would like to see is line 86 and 87 filled in?

the M1 and M2 is the money supply

M0 would be the combined non liquid assets...also not shown?

Sorry , my fault

I did not see the scroll left part of the file

[dinarck]

What if they were to slowly increase the value? Would this mean that they could do with less currency in circulation as each currency unit would have more value?

Raise the value in increments, withdraw from circulation slowly while they increase the value. Increase GDP, export more oil, encourage growth in the private sector, etc... This is definitely doable, in fact, this is the only reason why I'm still holding, for that chance that they DON'T "raise the 3 zeroes..."

Thoughts about the above possibility? I'm not talking about 1 or even 2 years. More like a 5-10 year plan.

Now we are finally talkin about reality. These are my hopes as well 20million but 5 to 10 years may not be long enough. 10 to 20 or even 30 may get them to a dollar. If we compare how far they have come in 9 years then I would say 20 years is doable. Thats if they dont RD.

Maybe this was the plan all along. Trillions would be made either way only this way is possible.

Heres the thing. if the rvs not inthe budget, they will need to release almost all the dinar theyve reclaimed. this budget is massive and willrequire more iqd. oil sales will be converted to dinar and thats how the goi will pay their budget and bills. so if theres nota rv, when they implement the budget there will be tons of dinar floating right back intothe economyto supportthe largest budget in iraqs history

We really dont know how much of these projects will be paid for in USD. I dont see oil sales being converted into dinar. That would be 100 trillion new dinar a year. I dont think we will see that much new dinar put into circulation. At least I hope not. Lol. We can look to past budgets to get an idea of how much new dinar was needed or added to circulation but I would think the majority of this business is done in USD.

[dvforumuser]

What if they were to slowly increase the value? Would this mean that they could do with less currency in circulation as each currency unit would have more value?

Raise the value in increments, withdraw from circulation slowly while they increase the value. Increase GDP, export more oil, encourage growth in the private sector, etc... This is definitely doable, in fact, this is the only reason why I'm still holding, for that chance that they DON'T "raise the 3 zeroes..."

Thoughts about the above possibility? I'm not talking about 1 or even 2 years. More like a 5-10 year plan.

It could if there were not another mechanism to put dinars back into circulation. If we're going to believe the spreadsheet we should believe all of it I think and it says inflation continues and the M's are going up each year.

The part I don't understand (well one of the parts!) is how the budget is absorbed. For 2012 the GOI has a 117T IQD budget (note 1.5x M2). They get at least most of that (they are hoping for all of it so no debt) in dollars from oil. Some of it may be left in dollars for the GOI to buy stuff from the US, but much if not most of it will be exchanged into dinars for domestic programs (government salaries, social welfare support, infrastructure, etc). We don't see a yearly increase in dollar reservers remotely this big so most of these dollars must go back out pulling dinars back in. We don't see the money supply go up this much either so further support that huge numbers of dinars must be coming back in. But as big as the auctions are, they do not appear to be big enough to pull in say 80-90T dinars a year, do they? So something in my description of the overall flow must not be correct.

As for growth, they (and the IMF) are projecting 12% for this year, but then only 9% for 2013 I think. So accelerating growth (15, 30, 60) seems very unlikely. Its also not clear such is good for the country as huge growth tends to promote boom and bust. What you want is sold and steady growth.

[20MillionDinar]

Now we are finally talkin about reality. These are my hopes as well 20million but 5 to 10 years may not be long enough. 10 to 20 or even 30 may get them to a dollar. If we compare how far they have come in 9 years then I would say 20 years is doable. Thats if they dont RD.

Maybe this was the plan all along. Trillions would be made either way only this way is possible

My thinking is that the past 10 years were not really years of growth and development which is why I personally feel that we could see much more progress during the next 5-10. However, Iraq likes to take their sweet time so who knows. My main hope is that they DO NOT go through with the delete the 3 zeroes plan!

[Darin]

It could if there were not another mechanism to put dinars back into circulation. If we're going to believe the spreadsheet we should believe all of it I think and it says inflation continues and the M's are going up each year.

The part I don't understand (well one of the parts!) is how the budget is absorbed. For 2012 the GOI has a 117T IQD budget (note 1.5x M2). They get at least most of that (they are hoping for all of it so no debt) in dollars from oil. Some of it may be left in dollars for the GOI to buy stuff from the US, but much if not most of it will be exchanged into dinars for domestic programs (government salaries, social welfare support, infrastructure, etc). We don't see a yearly increase in dollar reservers remotely this big so most of these dollars must go back out pulling dinars back in. We don't see the money supply go up this much either so further support that huge numbers of dinars must be coming back in. But as big as the auctions are, they do not appear to be big enough to pull in say 80-90T dinars a year, do they? So something in my description of the overall flow must not be correct.

As for growth, they (and the IMF) are projecting 12% for this year, but then only 9% for 2013 I think. So accelerating growth (15, 30, 60) seems very unlikely. Its also not clear such is good for the country as huge growth tends to promote boom and bust. What you want is sold and steady growth.

Well it is basically a wash, because for each dinar pulled out of circulation a USD or other currency left the reserves in exchange. But, if the circulation that is exposed to the real world is decreasing while the reserves are still increasing, this creates an imbalance which should or logically would mean an appreciation in value. This is something we have not seen. Could it be that mechanisms are in place to help further appreciate the value but the CBI prefers to do minor adjustments that are rather significant jumps (albeit may not be significant to us) as they raise the value? I'm not talking about a jump to the dollar but I am also not talking about movement of 4 pips. I'm simply suggestion maybe a 50% increase in value adjustment. So instead of the 0.00086 we know, we would see 0.001286. Not even a penny, but a significant jump. Which would lead to the currency worth holding long--term if the trend continues and even expands from there at a faster pace.

[dvforumuser]

Well it is basically a wash, because for each dinar pulled out of circulation a USD or other currency left the reserves in exchange. But, if the circulation that is exposed to the real world is decreasing while the reserves are still increasing, this creates an imbalance which should or logically would mean an appreciation in value. This is something we have not seen. Could it be that mechanisms are in place to help further appreciate the value but the CBI prefers to do minor adjustments that are rather significant jumps (albeit may not be significant to us) as they raise the value? I'm not talking about a jump to the dollar but I am also not talking about movement of 4 pips. I'm simply suggestion maybe a 50% increase in value adjustment. So instead of the 0.00086 we know, we would see 0.001286. Not even a penny, but a significant jump. Which would lead to the currency worth holding long--term if the trend continues and even expands from there at a faster pace.

Indeed 50% would be the largest currency jump in history (I think 34% is the biggest on record).

I agree on the mechanism (dollars to the GOI from oil, exchange with the CBI, GOI spends dinars, GOI pulls them back in with those dollars, putting the dollars from the oil revenue out in the country), but the volume does not appear to be enough to me.

I also fail to see how they can ever expect to de-dollarize with this mechanism. As long as most of the income to the country is in dollars, they are going to have lots of dollars.

Edited April 6, 2012 by dvforumuser

[HopefulTxn]

Interesting:

Jan., Feb., & March

CW, CX, & CY

Line # 16 & Line # 17

In reference to their auctions, we see that amount sold in is less than amount redeemed. The #s are in millions

Jan would mean they pulled in 289,120 million (289B)

Feb would mean they pulled in 56,500 million (56B)

And in march they would have pulled in 50,000 million (50B)

If they're redeeming more than they're selling, wouldn't that be an indicator that less is out in circulation?

Which means, in the last 3 months alone, they've nearly pulled in roughly close to 400 Billion ID?

Now, that is not a substantial amount in comparison to what they claim exists, but over a period of time pulling in 50B or so per month will reduce the circulation & what is on the streets.

The trend would continue as long as the redemption exceeds the amount sold.

Not sure you got that right... Those auctions are essentially treasury bills with a 182 day maturity span that is offered by the Ministry of Finance on a bi-weekly basis... Here is a link to those auction details -

Since the return to the buyer is currently 6.4% upon maturity, how is that reducing dinar in circulation?

[truthful1]

Now we are finally talkin about reality. These are my hopes as well 20million but 5 to 10 years may not be long enough. 10 to 20 or even 30 may get them to a dollar. If we compare how far they have come in 9 years then I would say 20 years is doable. Thats if they dont RD.

Maybe this was the plan all along. Trillions would be made either way only this way is possible.

We really dont know how much of these projects will be paid for in USD. I dont see oil sales being converted into dinar. That would be 100 trillion new dinar a year. I dont think we will see that much new dinar put into circulation. At least I hope not. Lol. We can look to past budgets to get an idea of how much new dinar was needed or added to circulation but I would think the majority of this business is done in USD.

Agreed we really dont know. As the years have passed budgets have increased and the currency outside the banks continues to grow.. i was thinking there could be some relationship....but not for sure. trying to gain some clarity

[RRSport]

Why is LOP talk section so heavily policed yet the rumors hype-o-mart is allowed to run rampant with levels of idiocy that defies all belief?

Well I actually know the answer to my own question but hey.

Edited April 7, 2012 by RRSport

[20MillionDinar]

Why is LOP talk section so heavily policed yet the rumors hype-o-mart is allowed to run rampant with levels of idiocy that defies all belief?

Well I actually know the answer to my own question but hey.

Traffic...

Ads & Membership...

Revenue...

Edited April 8, 2012 by 20MillionDinar

[DaveD]

Guys... look at this.

It's the on the CBI site

It is the Key Financial Indicators Documantation. It has been there for years and explains what a lot of the numbers mean.

http://www.cbi.iq/documents/Key_Financial_Indicators_Documentation.pdf

a - Currency outside banks.....From December 2003, currency in

circulation is the new currency issued by the CBI less redemption of old and damaged new

currency notes.

It clearly.. clearly for most anyway... clearly states that the number reported takes into account redeemed currency. So when they but back currency at action (same as redeemed) it is taken into account when figuring out and posting the numbers. For years gurus have claimed we don't know how much is in circulation because of all the dinar bought back at action. All the time the CBI has told us that that is accounted for in the reported numbers.

[arh15]

Why is LOP talk section so heavily policed yet the rumors hype-o-mart is allowed to run rampant with levels of idiocy that defies all belief?

Well I actually know the answer to my own question but hey.

Traffic...

Ads & Membership...

Revenue...

Exactly. If there wasn't a tremendous amount of money being made from these websites then all opinions, outcomes, and possibilities would be discussed openly and freely. It amazes me how most people do little to no thinking of their own.