More from Enoch and B.I.W.

[jupitergirl]

[b.I.W.]you were talking about pips

[b.I.W.]http://www.ny.frb.org/cfcbsweb/Rosenberg.pdf

[b.I.W.]this doc is a good 1

[b.I.W.]now every body talks about the forex

[b.I.W.]but the forex is where the little boy play

[Enoch8]Hello

[b.I.W.]yoyo

[b.I.W.]i found this old doc enoch

[b.I.W.] What moves exchange rates? I

•Exchangerates are determined by supply and

demandfor currencies.

•Supplyand demand for currencies depends on:

–Macroeconomicconditions

–Domesticand foreign interest rates

–Otherfactors

•Importanceof each factor can change over time.

[b.I.W.]What moves exchange rates? II

•Macroeconomicconditions

Andersen,Bollerslev, Diebold, and Vega (2003)

Faust,Rogers, Wang and Wright (2003)

–Positivemacroeconomic news strengthens dollar

•GDP

•Non-farmpayroll

•Retailsales

•Consumer confidence

[Enoch8]Any number of conditions , based on the Exchange Rate Regime Policiesof that Central Bank.

[Enoch8]They are all different.

[Enoch8]The IMF Lists the types of Regimes.

[Enoch8]Iraq has been on typically a Fixed Peg Regime.

[b.I.W.]some time i wonder if all know that the forex is the small guy in thetrading of currencys in the world

[Enoch8]The US.... Japan and Switzerland are on Free Floats.

[b.I.W.]http://www.londonfx.co.uk/autobrok.html

[Enoch8]Forex is an interesting topic concerning rate changes andadjustments.

[b.I.W.]http://www.icap.com/markets/electronic-markets/ebs.aspx

[b.I.W.]the ebs lookslike they are the real traders

[Enoch8]It is possible that Forex can be a Supply vs Demand Factor, but doesNOT.... I repeat DOES NOT Drive the market, as Okie suggests.

[*Tenmillion]Enoch8 which of these factors would apply to the IQD?

[Enoch8]Great question

[Enoch8]Iraq does a number of typical internal adjustments....

[Enoch8]1. They can increase the Foreign Reserves or Decrease them to makeadjustments against market forces....

[Enoch8]A decrease for example is called Sterilization.

[Enoch8]2. They can manuver interest rates, but IRaq is not strong in thatsuit, as of yet....

[3-BALL]so the high auctions are ?

[Enoch8]3. They increase or decrease circulation according to Supply vsDemand and Market influences.

[Enoch8]Increase is called Capitalization or Monitization of Liquidity....

[Enoch8]A decrease is call contraction.

[Enoch8]All these factors are what determines the actual strength of anynation's currency, based on the strength of it's bank and bondsmarkets

[Enoch8]In a Fixed Peg Regime, the Exchange Rate is held stable by thesefactors by adjusting them up or down.

[b.I.W.]and confidence in the currency

[Enoch8]In a Crawling Peg or a Banded Peg..... the rate is managed to adesired level as the market determines, but only as allowed by theCentral Bank, who determines that as part of the actual Regime.

[Enoch8]Banded is like crawling, but is restricted and limited to a set % ofincrease or decrease over a set peroid of time.

[b.I.W.]hey enoch here is a us state department email dec 13 2007

[Enoch8]Managed floats are like LOndon, China and Russia....

[b.I.W.]Classified By: Economic Section Deputy James Freund, reasons 1.4 b,d1. © SUMMARY: Demand for the dinar has risen this past week inresponse to the holiday period, a reported drop in imported goodprices in Baghdad due to an appreciating dinar against the dollar andimproved security, and speculation among money traders of a suddenappreciation of the dinar that occurred around this time last year.How the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) handles growing demand for thedinar will be critical, especially in terms of expectationsmanagement and injecting dinar liquidity into the market This is anencouraging development for Iraq and reflects a vote of confidence byIraqis in their domestic economy and the government's monetarypolicies. END SUMMARY.

[b.I.W.]so even in 2007

[Enoch8]thos are like free floats but are more restricted by internal controlof the above mentioned factors, among others.

[b.I.W.]they were aware of us

[Enoch8]Did that answer for you Ten?

[*Tenmillion]yes, thank you Enoch8

[3-BALL]so 4 points in 3 years is like "snurtle crawling"

[b.I.W.]COMMENT: How the CBI handles growing demand for the dinar will becritical, in particular on expectations management and injectingdinar liquidity into the market. The TF-BSO consultant notes the CBIis taking this situation very seriously, and when she was at the CBIthis morning all the key managers were going to a meeting on theissue. She also said she had never seen such a long line of armoredtrucks snaking around the block waiting to get dinars in her entirethree years consulting with the CBI. The CBI also issued an immediatepress release today to dispel the rumors of sudden appreciation to1,000 dinar per dollar or lobbing off any zeros to the exchange rate.The CBI's foreign currency auction's daily volume has fluctuated, butnot substantially diminished.

[Enoch8]OK..... BIW...... that article is about demand on the streets andwith respective dealers.

[b.I.W.]this is the only time the cbi has issues a story about the (ooo)

[b.I.W.] LOL

[b.I.W.]2007

[Enoch8]It has nothing to do with world market forces, because it is directdemand on trades and exchanges and does not represent actual buyingpower, but factors trade spreads. and a different kind of demand,somewhat like the effect of Forex markets.

[Enoch8]They again...... Do NOT Drive the Market.

[b.I.W.]so you think the iqd will have to be careful on how it makes it moves

[Enoch8]Reduction of Zeros is a common practice of many countries who reducecirculation by getting an assigned new ISO and issue a new currencyand monetize that,while contracting and demonetizing an oldercurrency.

[Enoch8]That is called Redenomination and is a lop..... unless there is aliquidity increase, supported by a bonding of debt, authorized bythat respective government.

[Enoch8]that might allow a greater exchange than 1000 to 1 in a case likeIRaq.

[Enoch8]It means simply, that the Old IQD units will be worth 1 /1000 of thevalue of the new units.

[Enoch8]The way we might prosper, is IF the GOI can Bond enough liquidity toincrease the value of the monetary base enough, to justify giving abetter exchange ratio than 1000 to 1

[Enoch8]Like Germany did in part, with certain restrictions and time limits,in the Marshall Plan.

[Enoch8]That in effect accomplishes contraction of the monetary circulation,while at the same time, increasing it's value overall.

[Enoch8]The estimated cost projected in the new CBIplan is about $130Million.

[Enoch8]That is one of the issues Parliament must approve and authorize MOFto instruct CBI and cover that cost.

[Enoch8]CBI does not pay for that.

[Enoch8]GOI Does

[Enoch8]It must be set in the GOI Budget

[Enoch8]I doubt if the IMF Partners are going to pay for it, this time asthey did in 2003.

[3-BALL]ya think they can afford it with the countries who keep forgivingdebt

[Enoch8]Sure they can

[b.I.W.]here i'm share some thing i found

[b.I.W.]take a look at this E

[b.I.W.]alway been talk about who payed for the dinar to get printed

[b.I.W.]it all started here

[b.I.W.][b.I.W.] it all started here

[b.I.W.]http://www.cfr.org/iraq/iraq-madrid-...nference/p7682

[b.I.W.]IRAQ: Madrid Donor Conference Author: Esther Pan October 30, 2003

[b.I.W.]Spain: $300 million through 2007;

[b.I.W.]hum

[b.I.W.]this is the only doc i have ever found that talks about paying forthe printing of the iraqi dinar

[b.I.W.]SUBJECT: SPAIN: FULFILLS IRAQI DINAR DONATION PLEDGE REF: MADRID 2397The Spanish Council of Ministers approved the donation of EUR 14.4million (USD 17.4 million) on July 16 to finance the production ofthe new Iraqi dinar. This allocation of funds will fulfill Spain'spledge of USD 18 million for production of Iraqi dinars during2004-2005, promised at the Madrid Donor's Conference. Thisdisbursement is a further sign of Spain's intention to fulfill itsUSD 300 million commitment to Iraq reconstruction (reftel). ARGYROS

[b.I.W.]i think this proves spain did

[b.I.W.]for atleast 2004 2005

[Enoch8]Yes BIW..... it proves the coalitions paid for the original changeover and over saw all of it.

[Enoch8]We have had UST agents embeddied from the start.

[b.I.W.]Year 2004 (some of which has been disbursed) Total: $ 60 millionIRFFI: $ 20 million (Min. Econ) IFC Small Business Facility: $ 5million (Min. Econ) Production of Iraqi Dinars: $18 million (Min.Econ) Not programmed: $ 17 million (Min. Econ and MFA) 5. (U) Years2005-2007 (Note: this allocation is notional and will likely change)Total: $ 140 million Ministry of Economy non-reimbursable creditlines (FAD): $75 million Bilateral donations (MFA*Spanish Agency forInternational Development): $ 55 Nonspecific technical assistance: $10 million (Min. Econ and MFA)

[Enoch8]It may have been printed and inventoried at perhaps BIS or even a USFed Bank..... all along and was all paid for in advance?

[3-BALL]so who then paid for the rest of the years of 30 trillion ?

[Enoch8]Not sure on that 3ball

[b.I.W.]or at least some

[Enoch8]It could have also been covered by funds and simply repayed by thesecountries over time, by agreement.

[Enoch8]Maybe?

[3-BALL]but is it 150 million a year for 3 trillion in dinar since 2003

[b.I.W.]it cost 140 million to print 6.38 Trillion in 2003

[3-BALL]trillion yes

[3-BALL]?

[Enoch8]They only delivered 6.38 BIW

[Enoch8]How do you know that did not cover all of what could have as easilyhave been stored by the contracted printers?

[b.I.W.]i agree

[Enoch8]I understood in the beginning, that the US Treasury and Fed Reservewere involved along with Central London and Bank of INternationalSettlements.

[b.I.W.]so i have alway wondered something

[b.I.W.]on the forex

[Enoch8]How do we know, they did not simply warehouse 'Inventory' during thattime?

[b.I.W.]Countries We are unable to send funds to the following countries:Afghanistan, Belarus, Burma, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republicof Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Lebanon,Liberia, Libya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria,Zimbabwe.

[b.I.W.]so i started looking

[Enoch8]But.... there may be a clue.

[b.I.W.]ofac list before they could get off the forex ban list

[b.I.W.]?

[Enoch8]CBI Law defines Inventory as not being a liability of actualcirculation

[b.I.W.]http://www.ozforex.com.au/why-us/supported-currencies

[b.I.W.]i have always wondered this

[b.I.W.]Countries We are unable to send funds to the following countries:Afghanistan, Belarus, Burma, Democratic , Republic of Congo, Coted'Ivoire, Cuba, Iran,Iraq, NorthKorea, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan,Syria, Zimbabwe.

[b.I.W.]this is the list of banned countrys on the forex

[Enoch8]OK.... do I understand you to be asking if this OZ forex trader notsupporting Iraq trading has to do with our investment?

[*Tenmillion]Why is Iraq on that list?

[Enoch8]It is OZ Trader policy.

[Enoch8]Has nothing to do with central bank trading, really.

[*Tenmillion]what do they have in common with N. Korea and Iran?

[Enoch8]all that means is that that one clearing house cannot deal in thatcurrency at this time.

[Enoch8]I think

[Enoch8]Not certain.

[b.I.W.]http://export.stanford.edu/country.html

[b.I.W.]all those countrys are on this list

[Enoch8]They are still IMF Art IV Consultations and on a Art XIV agreement.

[Enoch8]It restricts international trading

[b.I.W.]and canada

[b.I.W.]http://www.international.gc.ca/contr...ang=eng&view=d

[b.I.W.]i agree

[Enoch8]They have to be Art VIII compliant to be a recognized trading partnerand currency on international banking.

[b.I.W.]im asking do you think they needto be off those lists to move towardsare goal

[b.I.W.]i agree

[Enoch8]That also is the set standard for WTO final accession for all oilproducing nations, as well.

[Enoch8]Yes to that last question, BIW

[b.I.W.]i think we are on the right path

[3-BALL]I do also

[Enoch8]there are some lists involved and it applies directly to US TreasuryIssues..... OFAC and 13303, 13315, 13350 and 13364..... and aredefined as the very basis of UNSC Resolutions 1483, (Memory) and allthat apply with the UN Chap 7.

[Enoch8]That was the US President who unilaterally made those EOs and the UNMUltilaterally adopted them.

[Enoch8]Ohhh heck yes.... we are surely on the right path

[b.I.W.]some may not know

[b.I.W.]but the us gov has done a slick move

[3-BALL]more than I can remember

[b.I.W.]with those enoch

[b.I.W.]http://www.thefederalregister.com/d....-13-2010-22546

[Enoch8]You better believe they did, B

[b.I.W.]DATES: Effective Date: September 13, 2010. DOCUMENT SUMMARY: TheDepartment of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control(``OFAC'') is adding the Iraq Stabilization and Insurgency SanctionsRegulations as a new part to the Code of Federal Regulations, toimplement Executive Order 13303 of May 22, 2003, Executive Order13315 of August 28, 2003, Executive Order 13350 of July 29, 2004,Executive Order 13364 of November 29, 2004, and Executive Order 13438of July 17, 2007. [[Page 55464]

[b.I.W.]slick

[Enoch8]Anyone around after 911 can recall how Russia, France, Germany andChina squacked about those EOs

[Enoch8]But those guys were all in bed with Saddam stealing oil for foodmoney and had their own contracts with Saddam go bad.

[Enoch8]Right...TY again BIW.... you rock!

[b.I.W.][b.I.W.]http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text...1.1.23&idno=31

[*Tenmillion]I remember France for sure

[Enoch8]Those were all under US the authority of presidential declaration ofEconomic Emergy Act

[Enoch8]Ya..... what was that crust old bastards name in France?

[b.I.W.]this is why sometimes i feel they just let iraq act like they are incontrol

[*Tenmillion]I remember France for sure

[Enoch8]LOL.... we all boycotted Brie and French wine.... LMAO

[Enoch8]Not just that BIW.... go deep

[Enoch8]They also allow the UN to think they are actually running something!

[Enoch8]That is a very interesting thing that happened.... because it meansafter 3 solid years.... shabs has held up his end of the IMF Art XIVagreements.

[Enoch8]He proved he could hold it locked witout signifigant inflation for 3years as on Jan 2012.

[Enoch8]It means he has shifted the regime back to a crawling peg ?

[Enoch8]I think so.

[b.I.W.]me too

[Enoch8]That is significant by itself

[JayP]Enoch, is it true then that this is why we saw them make the change 3years to the date

[b.I.W.]can he just flip back at any time

[Enoch8]It also means he can set a new monetary policy with a 2 year statedobjective.

[b.I.W.]hold 1166

[b.I.W.]?

[Enoch8]That is good news for us.... because that allows additional valueincreases based on stated objectives.

[3-BALL]which are what now ?

[3-BALL]stated objectives ?

[Enoch8]He already held 1170..... he is done with that agreement.... IOW....proved IRaq has the strength as an Emerging Market Economy to beallowed to do a 2 year stated objective...

[Enoch8]that translates into allowable increases in liquidity and balance ofthe allowable circulation can be dramatically increased, from $26Billion in US Value.....

[Enoch8]That translates to a greater potential yield if you hold dinar.....IF the Parliament will just approve the Government Bonds to increasethe liquidity.

[*Tenmillion] Thank you Enoch8 !

[easyrider]

wow!! enoch is way too smart for me but what he said at the end makes sense. they are done with the 1170 and have proven themselves now for a dramatic increase come on Iraq and i believe chapter 7 might be the leading role in that to lift the sanctions where they can indeed go international and have a healthy rate they can sustain. thanks for the post always enjoy Enoch.

[fishing]

So, with all this said , what is the likely hood of a 1 to 1 rate, higher or lower?

[tim5400]

great chat...thanks for the post....Lets see CHAPTER 7 completely lifted ....GO RV

[lotsofdinar]

It seems like Enoch is acknowledging a LOP is ahead, but is arguing that some kind of government bond deal could actually raise the rate above 1 to 1, which would benefit investors. A lot of extraneous stuff in there. He clearly describes an RD.

Edited January 22, 2012 by lotsofdinar

[tim5400]

heres the BIG QUESTION in my mind!!!......Does anyone here think that there may be an agreement in place between Iraq and the world(IMF)...that the Dinar has to at least be profitable for all investors....personally at this point I would welcome a .10 to .25 cent rv..any replies would be welcome

[lotsofdinar]

It appears from what the CBI is putting out that right now, at least, that their primary interest is in maintaining a fairly stable exchange rate. As for future plans, who knows? I'm not convinced they care about investors.

Edited January 22, 2012 by lotsofdinar

[tim5400]

It appears from what the CBI is putting out that right now, at least, that their primary interest is in maintaining a fairly stable exchange rate. As for future plans, who knows? I'm not convinced they care about investors.

I think that us investors are helping to maintain the value of the dinar by making it a speculation type investment....JMO....i dont know how much of an impact we have on the value but every little bit helps

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

heres the BIG QUESTION in my mind!!!......Does anyone here think that there may be an agreement in place between Iraq and the world(IMF)...that the Dinar has to at least be profitable for all investors....personally at this point I would welcome a .10 to .25 cent rv..any replies would be welcome

***///

Not paranoid, merely distrusting and suspicious of the big playas, so I was wondering the same thing....

It appears from what the CBI is putting out that right now, at least, that their primary interest is in maintaining a fairly stable exchange rate. As for future plans, who knows? I'm not convinced they care about investors.

***///

Little fish - big pond...

Y'mean we're not even a significant blip on their bazillion dollar radar..?

Then they should just throw me my bone so I can go home...

***///

...and was it implied herein it may take another 2-3 years to git 'er done... before we can cash in...?

[localcats]

Tag says newbie just don't post much. In our opinion they will need to be over a dollar or the Iraqi citizen won't give up their USD. Why should they if the dollar is more valuabel then the dinar? Just a thought.

[motox565]

It seems like Enoch is acknowledging a LOP is ahead, but is arguing that some kind of government bond deal could actually raise the rate above 1 to 1, which would benefit investors. A lot of extraneous stuff in there. He clearly describes an RD.

You must have received a Neg for using the "Lop" or RD word.......I used the redenomination word facetiously in a post a while back and actually was insulted.lol Even if we lean toward a RV.. we shouldn't stick our heads in the sand and pretend possibilities don't exist.

[captl1]

Tag says newbie just don't post much. In our opinion they will need to be over a dollar or the Iraqi citizen won't give up their USD. Why should they if the dollar is more valuabel then the dinar? Just a thought.

Excellent point....would make no sense at all.

[seetrader1]

It seems like Enoch is acknowledging a LOP is ahead, but is arguing that some kind of government bond deal could actually raise the rate above 1 to 1, which would benefit investors. A lot of extraneous stuff in there. He clearly describes an RD.

Yup. The ones who gave you a negative must has missed that part...

"[Enoch8]Reduction of Zeros is a common practice of many countries who reducecirculation by getting an assigned new ISO and issue a new currencyand monetize that,while contracting and demonetizing an oldercurrency.

[Enoch8]That is called Redenomination and is a lop..... unless there is aliquidity increase, supported by a bonding of debt, authorized bythat respective government.

[Enoch8]that might allow a greater exchange than 1000 to 1 in a case likeIRaq.

[Enoch8]It means simply, that the Old IQD units will be worth 1 /1000 of thevalue of the new units.

[Enoch8]The way we might prosper, is IF the GOI can Bond enough liquidity toincrease the value of the monetary base enough, to justify giving abetter exchange ratio than 1000 to 1

[Enoch8]Like Germany did in part, with certain restrictions and time limits,in the Marshall Plan.

[Enoch8]That in effect accomplishes contraction of the monetary circulation,while at the same time, increasing it's value overall."

[storm1]

It seems like Enoch is acknowledging a LOP is ahead, but is arguing that some kind of government bond deal could actually raise the rate above 1 to 1, which would benefit investors. A lot of extraneous stuff in there. He clearly describes an RD.

why was this person reddotted?

jeeze, some peoples children

[lotsofdinar]

The initials "RD" are poison on this forum.

Edited January 22, 2012 by lotsofdinar

[kwg]

Enoch is a smart dude I like reading and listening to his analysis

[Francie26]

"In our opinion they will need to be over a dollar or the Iraqi citizen won't give up their USD. Why should they if the dollar is more valuabel then the dinar? Just a thought."

Good question.

My question is: Even if Shabibi can keep the value of the dinar very low, why would he do it? Adam says he might do it because he can then move the value up incrementally and pull in a lot of investment dinars which would earn the CBI a great deal of money over time. Please remember that I know nothing about this, but it seems to me that, if Iraq is going to have a vibrant world-class economy, with businesses coming into the country, and local businesses growing by leaps and bound, and citizens improving their own lives and those of their family members by working and providing for their families, and families living at a much higher financial level, and all of it working together to life the people and the country onto a world stage, then their currency would need to be more valuable than just a few cents, American. Shabibi may be a businessman like Adam and think only- or mostly of the value of the currency as it changes over time so he can make the most money from the sale of dinar, but it seems to me that he would have a higher interest, and would want to lift the country and the people to a higher level among nations of the world than little Iraq has ever experienced before. And if this is his focus, then Iraq would need a currency with some real value. Why am I wrong? Or right, for that matter?

[lotsofdinar]

Even if Shabibi can keep the value of the dinar very low, why would he do it?"

To encouragement foreign business to come to the country, buy land and build stuff. And to make stuff that Iraqi companies manufacture in the future more financially appealing to foreign buyers.

It is completely illogical that RV'ing the currency and making it more expensive for U.S. companies to invest in the country would encourage them to do so.

China, for example, is trying to keep their currency depressed so that their exports are cheaper for other countries to buy.

Edited January 23, 2012 by lotsofdinar

[Darin]

Enoch8 is a brilliant man, as he has done his in-depth due dilligence regarding the IQD and what its true potential is. I envy his knowledge and wish I had as much of an understanding as he does, because if I were to ever even come close to that level he would only continue to pull ahead beyond my knowledge. To reach that type of knowledge takes countless hours of reading, bookmarking links, and discussing with other intelligent people to consider other perspectives.

I've had the opportunity to speak with him in groups & one-on-one on numerous occassions. He doesn't deny the possibility of a R/D, but maintains an optimistic outlook of a better outlook. In my personal opinion, we would all be naive to discredit the idea of a R/D, as it is indeed truly possible. This is something that I wish more of the Lopsters on this board would do, is at least maintain an optimistic outlook and try to find potential outlets for a positive outcome versus the gloomy negativity that does none of us any good.

B.I.W. is also another analyst that I think has a ton of knowledge. Everything he states he likely has 2-3 links to back up what he has to say. In other words, if you dare question or argue the validity of what he says, prepare to get it handed to you because he will throw you anywhere from 2-5 links at you to prove that you are incorrect in your challenge.

They're just like you & I, hoping to see this thing come to fruition and looking to find the answers and become educated along the way.

As to include some of this chat and give my own personal view, it appears that the discussion is relating to use of bonds to take the excessive money supply and bundle it into bonds to be sold to foreign entities. What does this do? Reduces circulation which leads to the strengthening of the value of what is in current circulation. What better time than now to be selling bonds as in years down the road, if this country is successful they will have an explosive economy full of wealth (Whether they R/D or R/V, imo). GDP wise, they're expected to be one of the fastest growing economies (Surpassing China).

In due time, foreign businesses will open up shop to cater to consumers. With a desire for a more westernized way of life, I see that the country holds a lot of potential. They've been rebuilding for years and will soon prosper. In my own personal opinion, a substantial R/V could expedite that process. A R/D will continue the status-quo environment and it may not grow as fast as some hope, but long-term should show potential.

One of the problems I noticed with these type of open chats is sometimes a particular topic is not fully discussed because you have a couple people speaking at once. Which is really unfornate as I saw that Enoch8 was eluding to something that many may have found interesting. He was referencing a questionalbe law by the CBI as what is considered a liability.

CBI Law defines Inventory as not being a liability of actualcirculation

]

So, with that statement, could the CBI holding massive amount of currency and accounting for it but not considering it a liability while accounting for it when determining the actual value of the IQD?

Is that a possibility? In terms of personal finances, it would not make any sense whatsoever. It would be like having a few credit cards + a few additional credit cards that show you have debt while that debt doesn't really exist. What that would do in terms of a banking institution is hurt you credit or ability to borrow.

But, in terms of the CBI would play a big role in manipulating a pegged rate to remain stable.... So the purpose could have existed within good reason at the given time.

The CBI had 3 years to hold a 1170 rate, and now that they no longer are at 1170, its really up in the air what will happen next.

Maybe Enoch8 can touch on that in another chat and maybe further explain.

I also recall BIW to be a big believer that the true #s in existance of circulation are not what we believe to be. Look at the costs on the initial print & release of the first batch... Look at how they had to borrow, or others had to chip in to pay for that (IMF/Spain)... If the initial release was 6.38 Trillion, and they've expanded to 30 some trillion now, they've had to likely incur those costs year in & year out over and over to expand to what they have NOW + replacing the soiled bills that have a life expectancy of 90 days to 1.5 years.

It even appears that Enoch8 is skeptical when before he was more of a believer of the numbers..

So, lets say 30 Trillion exists in circulation

Initial release was 6.38 Trillion (2 Trillion allocated to reserves)

That leaves 4.38 Trillion for 2004 - to be released into circulation, exchanged for old & swiss while later on USD.

7 year duration, they expanded by 23.62 Trillion to be able to claim 30 trillion

That puts an average of 3.37 trillion per year of expanding the money supply ALONE, this does 'not' include replacing soiled bills

With a life expectancy of 90 days to 1.5 years, lets say replaced 3 trillion per year...

That means, they had to print 6 trillion each year after 2004 - 3 trillion to expand the supply & another 3 trillion to replace soiled.

They're basically doing the initial 6.38 Trillion release over & over... Look at the initial costs, and how they needed help back than...

Would it really be financially wise to expand the supply by 3 trillion ea. year? not to mention having to pay for the labor, materials, and shipment of another additional 3 trillion to replace soiled?

I've always had a problem grasping the math on that being possible.. Seems excessive, if you ask me.

My theory?

6.38 Trillion existed initially, & either one of two things are happening...

1.) They're printing & releasing bills to replace soiled bills... They take the soiled bills put them into the inventory and have it still count into their exchange rate. Money supply is expanding, reserves are growing, and it gives them a great chance to nearly guarantee stabilization considering how easy they could stabilize the currency.

2.) The numbers presented to the general public are not truly correct.

Either way, it is questionable... By no way do I consider myself a conspiracy theorist, but I would love a valid explanation on how or why they've supposedly printed & released so much hard cash.

[Darin]

Even if Shabibi can keep the value of the dinar very low, why would he do it?"

To encouragement foreign business to come to the country, buy land and build stuff. And to make stuff that Iraqi companies manufacture in the future more financially appealing to foreign buyers.

It is completely illogical that RV'ing the currency and making it more expensive for U.S. companies to invest in the country would encourage them to do so.

China, for example, is trying to keep their currency depressed so that their exports are cheaper for other countries to buy.

That is a complete apples to oranges statement when comparing China to the situation.

China exports goods.. A lot rate means more USD in trade... (Exchanged via USD for China currency)

Crude is sold in USD, so for oil producing nations, a higher rate is more appealing because their domestic currency is normally traded to buy imports when used outside of the country.

China maintains a trade surplus, which normally means they export more goods while importing very little. In other words, they spend less than their paycheck is. Do that for years and you become wealthy

The U.S. spends more than their paycheck which leads to debt.

For oil producing nations, their paycheck is in USD.

They're not trying to encourage foreign investors to come over and buy their land. GOI I believe does not allow foreign ownership of the land (why would they? oil may be beneath it)... However, they do allow businesses to be setup. Last I recall, there were still many hurdles to overcome to even get your foot in the door. The rewards versus risk scenario doens't appear appealing, so not many foreigner ivnestors are quite on board. Stability, Security, and infasctructure are just a few of the major concerns.

However, the KRG allows ownership of land and have been working quite effieciently.. Google for some pictures of their region and you may just be shocked at a night & day difference betwee the two regions. One looks like Dubai, another looks like a 3rd word post-war country. The KRG is quite smart, and knew to get their ball rolling... Probably less hands in the cookie jar so progress was better, huh?

[zigmeister]

I vote the Kurds for President.

[Stryker365]

That is a complete apples to oranges statement when comparing China to the situation.

China exports goods.. A lot rate means more USD in trade... (Exchanged via USD for China currency)

Crude is sold in USD, so for oil producing nations, a higher rate is more appealing because their domestic currency is normally traded to buy imports when used outside of the country.

China maintains a trade surplus, which normally means they export more goods while importing very little. In other words, they spend less than their paycheck is. Do that for years and you become wealthy

The U.S. spends more than their paycheck which leads to debt.

For oil producing nations, their paycheck is in USD.

They're not trying to encourage foreign investors to come over and buy their land. GOI I believe does not allow foreign ownership of the land (why would they? oil may be beneath it)... However, they do allow businesses to be setup. Last I recall, there were still many hurdles to overcome to even get your foot in the door. The rewards versus risk scenario doens't appear appealing, so not many foreigner ivnestors are quite on board. Stability, Security, and infasctructure are just a few of the major concerns.

However, the KRG allows ownership of land and have been working quite effieciently.. Google for some pictures of their region and you may just be shocked at a night & day difference betwee the two regions. One looks like Dubai, another looks like a 3rd word post-war country. The KRG is quite smart, and knew to get their ball rolling... Probably less hands in the cookie jar so progress was better, huh?

Thanks for your insight of the chat Darin........I thought I would bring a few video's here about the Kurdistan Region just in case someone has not seen them yet..............I found them quite interesting....

60 Minutes on Iraq

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPsCC_Xhw7Y&feature=player_embedded#!

Erbil International Airport

Erbil Shopping Mall

I hope you enjoy them...I sure did...

Edited January 24, 2012 by Stryker365