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Reinstatement vs Revaluation


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#1 jaaamie

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Posted 15 January 2011 - 01:33 PM

Hey all,
a general question out of curiosity.
Haven't been following all this for very long but I HAVE heard -- and I emphasize on this word -- RUMOURS
of a reinstatement before revaluation.

i'm quite certain you all know what that means but... A reinstatement of the value pre-embargo to the number I have heard - And it's been thrown around time and again here on DV as I have come to see... - $3.22 vs 1IQD

I'm not saying "IT WILL BE VALUED AT 3.22!!!! REJOICE" I am generally curious of the thoughts of contributors on the subject of reinstatement vs revaluation.

Would a number like this be heinous to the point that it would skew the economies of other countries out of proportion?
Would it be wise to reinstate at the previous value because of past comfort?
Is it really all that farfetched considering the commodities Iraq's economy is built on - namely Crude, Natural Gas and Gold (all of which are at an all-time high at the current moment?)
Will Iraq's admittance to the World Market cause a fluctuation in these commodities, and why?

Things I have been wondering about and wanted to get an outside opinion on.
As far as I see - and I know, as I have read... "An investment in Dinar is an investment in their economy and not their resources" - don't resources and the economy of a country go hand in hand?
Example: Chinese production of worldwide goods has given them leverage on the market because of their power over such things..

In no way am I going to claim to be an economic genius, nor a guru of any sort in this... Just an investor in small potatoes compared to some of the folks on here.

Thanks, any logical input is much appreciated.

:D
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#2 Az Joe

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Posted 15 January 2011 - 02:17 PM

Who cares with one they do as long as they do 1 of them. :lol:
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#3 jaaamie

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Posted 16 January 2011 - 12:34 PM

I know! either way there's gonna be money made, however the immediate return on a reinstatement could be much better than a revaluation

I have seen insane fluctuations in peoples speculation of the revaluation... .10 .35 1.0 3.22 5.27 etc etc - you get the picture

but a reinstatement simply means BACK TO THE OLD VALUE in turn means we have a benchmark for the ROI

what are your thoughts?
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#4 pt49

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Posted 17 January 2011 - 03:27 AM

$3.22 was NOT the pre-Saddam rate as is often quoted, it is the value Saddam put on the dinar, and it was only a short time after he did that that he was attacked and went into hiding. The "pre saddam value of the Dinar was conciderably lower than $3.22.
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#5 Gardeniacountry

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Posted 21 January 2011 - 08:44 PM

Ok, since I am new to this and I need a little clarification. It would seem to me that the Iraqi dinar would need to be "reinstated" before it could be "revalued" Since it sat on the self during Saddams reign, collecting dust, would we not be looking for reinstatement to circulation BEFORE we could expect revaluation???
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#6 Brisco

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Posted 22 January 2011 - 09:29 AM

$3.22 was NOT the pre-Saddam rate as is often quoted, it is the value Saddam put on the dinar, and it was only a short time after he did that that he was attacked and went into hiding. The "pre saddam value of the Dinar was conciderably lower than $3.22.


You should be carefull talking factually. Their is a good chance (especially) on this site you will run into someone who really does know.
And today is your day. You have been called out
You probably got your statement from someones intel right.
Remember INTEL is just HEARSAY until backed by FACTS.
You have misquoted there are many web locations giving the history of the dinar. And actually the $322 value was not posted by saddam.
And had much higher values prior to the war and even post Saddam.

http://www.edinarfinancial.net/

GO RV / RI
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#7 Doc31

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Posted 22 January 2011 - 09:42 AM

Who cares with one they do as long as they do 1 of them. Posted Image


I had to chuckle over this one ... no kidding ... right?!

RV......RI.....RV is the answer

RI is simply $3.22 (some will argue $3.21) .... ALL the rest is RV ... lower and higher

There are those who fuss with what Saddam did insisting what the IQD was worth. Do a little more research and find out when that was, where it had been previously, and oh, hey ... what ya' gonna do with that $4 range era?

The probability of one over the other rests with RV because from 0 to infinity minus just one price is obviously grossly weighted toward RV ... that's the math ... the reality is that the MOF came back with what? ... $3.210856......... (or something close to that) ... someone knows ... but it isn't us.

Yes, I know I didn't give you a probability on a particular rate ... but I don't do that.

Peace
Doc31

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#8 Brisco

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Posted 22 January 2011 - 09:56 AM

Ok, since I am new to this and I need a little clarification. It would seem to me that the Iraqi dinar would need to be "reinstated" before it could be "revalued" Since it sat on the self during Saddams reign, collecting dust, would we not be looking for reinstatement to circulation BEFORE we could expect revaluation???


Silly Rabbit
Reinstatement is to bring it back as a tradeable currency at a cost previously established in a prior period of time.
Some think $3.22 to $3.39 (no one knows)

Revaluation is to open it as a tradeable currency at a newly established figure established by current economic indicators.
Some think $0.86 to $2.86(no one knows)

Only one person knows and that is a Mr. Shabibi the head of the Central Bank of IRAQ.
His credentials are (and dont quote me) like 3 degrees and an economic back ground simular to our own past Alan Greenspan or current Ben Bernake.

hat ever it is I have a feeling we will all find out in the not to distant future.

GO RV / RI
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#9 Jim1cor13

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Posted 22 January 2011 - 10:33 AM

Silly Rabbit
Reinstatement is to bring it back as a tradeable currency at a cost previously established in a prior period of time.
Some think $3.22 to $3.39 (no one knows)

Revaluation is to open it as a tradeable currency at a newly established figure established by current economic indicators.
Some think $0.86 to $2.86(no one knows)

Only one person knows and that is a Mr. Shabibi the head of the Central Bank of IRAQ.
His credentials are (and dont quote me) like 3 degrees and an economic back ground simular to our own past Alan Greenspan or current Ben Bernanke.

hat ever it is I have a feeling we will all find out in the not to distant future.

GO RV / RI


Hi Brisco :)

Thanks for your post and thoughts. I for one would never place Mr. Shabibi in
the ranks as a Greenspan or a Bernanke. Shabibi has actually tried to manage their currency
responsibly and appears to have done a good job although slow, since becoming governor
of the CBI in 2004.

Many of our problems currently began with U.S. monetary policy from the
likes of Greenspan and Bernanke. Market bubbles and a host of other problems the last decade
are and continue to be a constant threat due to insane spending and bail out mentality. The feds have done
the U.S. NO favors since its inception in 1913-1914.

Now with over 12.3 T$ printed out of nothing, no labor, no production, no storehouse of value behind it,
think of what the long term fruit of these actions mean for the USD. Our debt to GDP is now 100%...this
cannot be sustained no matter what kind of funny accounting tricks the feds try.

So, the amount of degrees these folks have as far as Greenspan and Bernanke, have little to do with
real world management of currencies, as proven by our own 'experts' from the feds. They have failed,
and we can only hope this nonsense stops but we have already surpassed the point of no return. Does not
sound to me like these fellows have succeeded regardless of their degrees, sadly.

Just some quick thoughts to add to your discussion. I appreciate your thoughts and just wanted to do a comparison, not between Iraq
and the U.S., but between the qualifications of those mentioned. Not an easy job for anyone for sure, and I am not condemning
anyone. Our monetary policies were destined to fail. Fact is we lost our way in managing our own currency. Something has gone
horribly wrong, and what has been our answer? Lift the debt ceiling and keep on repeating the same mistakes thinking at some
point in the future, somehow we will get a different result. This is insanity on a professional level :lol:

Appreciate your posts :)

All my best!
Jim
---
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#10 Brisco

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Posted 22 January 2011 - 10:53 AM

Hi Brisco :)

Thanks for your post and thoughts. I for one would never place Mr. Shabibi in
the ranks as a Greenspan or a Bernanke. Shabibi has actually tried to manage their currency
responsibly and appears to have done a good job although slow, since becoming governor
of the CBI in 2004.

Many of our problems currently began with U.S. monetary policy from the
likes of Greenspan and Bernanke. Market bubbles and a host of other problems the last decade
are and continue to be a constant threat due to insane spending and bail out mentality. The feds have done
the U.S. NO favors since its inception in 1913-1914.

Now with over 12.3 T$ printed out of nothing, no labor, no production, no storehouse of value behind it,
think of what the long term fruit of these actions mean for the USD. Our debt to GDP is now 100%...this
cannot be sustained no matter what kind of funny accounting tricks the feds try.

So, the amount of degrees these folks have as far as Greenspan and Bernanke, have little to do with
real world management of currencies, as proven by our own 'experts' from the feds. They have failed,
and we can only hope this nonsense stops but we have already surpassed the point of no return. Does not
sound to me like these fellows have succeeded regardless of their degrees, sadly.

Just some quick thoughts to add to your discussion. I appreciate your thoughts and just wanted to do a comparison, not between Iraq
and the U.S., but between the qualifications of those mentioned. Not an easy job for anyone for sure, and I am not condemning
anyone. Our monetary policies were destined to fail. Fact is we lost our way in managing our own currency. Something has gone
horribly wrong, and what has been our answer? Lift the debt ceiling and keep on repeating the same mistakes thinking at some
point in the future, somehow we will get a different result. This is insanity on a professional level :lol:

Appreciate your posts :)

All my best!
Jim
---

I am sure they can make up for ALL their poor decisions at one time.
They will figure out how to give us a Capital Gains,Windfall,Inheritance maybe they will make up a new name to call it,TAX
As long as their going to sc??w us might as well have something in common make it 69% that sounds about right.

HOPE NOT but prepare for it.

GO RV
P.S. enjoyed your post reply
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Some people make things happen,Some watch things happen and some Wonder what the He!! Just happened

#11 Rockstar

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Posted 22 January 2011 - 04:16 PM

$3.22 was NOT the pre-Saddam rate as is often quoted, it is the value Saddam put on the dinar, and it was only a short time after he did that that he was attacked and went into hiding. The "pre saddam value of the Dinar was conciderably lower than $3.22.



You are correct and I don't know why people continuously post this "$3.22" rate. PEOPLE this was NEVER an international recognized rate. IF they decide to do a RI it would be at $2.37, that was the actual rate before Saddam raised it to the $3.22 rate which was not recognized. Why is this so hard for so many to understand??

Anyway, with that being said I personally this it RV somewhere in the mid $3 range!!
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#12 Rome M

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Posted 23 January 2011 - 03:40 AM

I thought the $3.22 was Saddam's rate too, that is until I mapped it on a timeline and looked at it closely....

The value of the dinar was $2.80 up until Dec 1971, then was at $3.39 until 1973 when it depriciated 5% to $3.22, then stayed this rate until 1982.

Now, Saddam was not in power until 1979, THE DINAR WAS VALUED ABOVE $3 FOR 8 YEARS BEFORE HE CAME INTO POWER.

I think what most people are missing is Saddam started making his own money, and alot of it. After the UN sanctions he was proclaiming that his rate was $3.XX, when in fact it was not any longer because of the UN's attempt to curve his war spending.

So, the rate was there before, then the sanctions came along dropping the rate, but Saddam still proclaimed it was worth more. This is where it was not accpted nationally, after the sanctions and during Saddam's claim.

Before the sanctions it WAS worth this much.
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#13 gman51

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Posted 23 January 2011 - 05:49 AM

You should be carefull talking factually. Their is a good chance (especially) on this site you will run into someone who really does know.
And today is your day. You have been called out
You probably got your statement from someones intel right.
Remember INTEL is just HEARSAY until backed by FACTS.
You have misquoted there are many web locations giving the history of the dinar. And actually the $322 value was not posted by saddam.
And had much higher values prior to the war and even post Saddam.

http://www.edinarfinancial.net/

GO RV / RI

Brisco is right on this one guys. From 1932-1949 the Dinar was at its highest point, 4.86, when it started its steady decline to 2.80 in 1971, then for the next 15 years or so it ranged from 2.80 to 3.22 when in 1986 it started to decline once again all the way down to .33, where it stayed until 2003. We know what happened from there. These rates are what the Dinar traded for on the World Market. I found this on the same website as Brisco above.
www.edinarfinancial.net
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#14 salespro

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Posted 23 January 2011 - 06:19 AM

I had to chuckle over this one ... no kidding ... right?!

RV......RI.....RV is the answer

RI is simply $3.22 (some will argue $3.21) .... ALL the rest is RV ... lower and higher

There are those who fuss with what Saddam did insisting what the IQD was worth. Do a little more research and find out when that was, where it had been previously, and oh, hey ... what ya' gonna do with that $4 range era?

The probability of one over the other rests with RV because from 0 to infinity minus just one price is obviously grossly weighted toward RV ... that's the math ... the reality is that the MOF came back with what? ... $3.210856......... (or something close to that) ... someone knows ... but it isn't us.

Yes, I know I didn't give you a probability on a particular rate ... but I don't do that.

Peace
Doc31

PERSONALLY and IMO ONLY...The IMF and the GOI and maybe the CBI are the only ones who know if , when and what....We are hopeful it will RV and Hopefully over $1.50
Good Luck to us all who have been waiting and waiting...
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#15 Hfeliu

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Posted 23 January 2011 - 09:13 AM

Well i'm praying for an RI, then hopefully an RV. not the other way around. $3.22 sounds pretty good to me to start with and cash in only a bit to get by, then hold the rest for a gradual increase, way before saddam came around the value of the Dinar was past the $3.22 mark, so i'm crossing my fingers here baby :D
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#16 Trailers For Sale Or Rent

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Posted 23 January 2011 - 10:22 AM

1988: In early 1988, the official dinar-dollar exchange rate was still Iraqi dinar (ID)1 to US$3.22; however, with estimates of the nation’s inflation rate ranging from 25 percent to 50 percent per year in 1985 and 1986, the dinar’s real transaction value, or black market exchange rate, was far lower-only about half the 1986 official rate.

1986 - 2003: between .33 cents to 1.32 to a dollar.



The Potential of the Dinar
Prior to United Nations sanctions, the Iraqi dinar traded at 3.35 per U.S. dollar, and prior to the war in Iraq, the Iraqi dinar traded at .33 U.S. Dollars. During major combat operations, the Iraqi dinar declined to an all time low. However, after major combat operations, the value of the dinar increased 25%. Countries such as Germany (post WWII) and Kuwait (post Iraqi invasion) experienced a similar devaluation of their currency, but both countries recovered. Today, the dinar has increased from 3,500 against the dollar during the U.S. led invasion last year to 1,400 against the U.S. dollar. Imagine the growth potential of the Iraqi dinar once Iraq recovers and begins to enjoy the potential revenue of a country rich in oil and other natural resources.;)

http://www.edinarfin...net/history.php

Edited by Trailers For Sale Or Rent, 23 January 2011 - 10:23 AM.

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#17 terr

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Posted 23 January 2011 - 01:19 PM

I think RV. Don't know the rate.
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