CBI Currency Auction 2/2/2011

[Doc31]

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1827)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 2-FEB-2011.

The results were as follows:

DetailsNotesNumber of banks18

Auction price selling dinar / US$1170

Auction price buying dinar / US$-----

Amount sold at auction price (US$)190,514,000

Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----

Total offers for buying (US$)190,514.000

Total offers for selling (US$)-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

Oil has settled after 2 day up ... still over $90

Gold running in a channel for close to 3 days

Zeroes ... Big volume with 18 banks participating ... 1.749M or .91% ... it is simply not enough to avail liquidity unless there is another mechanism at work that we either can't see or don't recognize.

Since the middle of last week ... people have been saying to me (not the other way around) that ... "it seems that everything that had to be done ... is done ... what are they waiting for?" And I mean everyone. Yes, I realize that al-Maliki is holding out on the two positions but I believe that it is advantageous for him to do so for some reason (and I covered this yesterday). But ... I agree. Frank26's chat from Monday and post from Tuesday chronicle the what's going on around it and what dates are "windows" because of one thing or the other ... but still, they seem to say the same thing ... "it seems that everything that had to be done ... is done ... what are they waiting for?"

Go look at the news ... ever live in a small town that has a newspaper? ... I get that same sensation right now ... oh, so Mrs Smith's parakeet got out huh?! And vandals broke into the feed store too?!

Ration cards (2 articles), jobs, air flights ... see what I mean?

I'm not belittling just taking note of the chronic lack of substance or perhaps finality of ANYTHING is a better way to say it. If you look at every article (I don't have the time any more) you can sometimes glean a single thing that when added to the puzzle gives you some sort of idea about what is going on ... yet the question remains ... "what are they waiting for?" No, I don't think that they are going to tell us. As I said yesterday ... we are at the mercy of the "clown show".

A member of the security committee disclosed U.S.-Iraqi attempts to extend the withdrawal

Okay that's good ... but the destabilizing manner in which this administration yanked the troops out ... doesn't lead me to believe that we'll get the warm fuzzies.

Iraqi central bank says assured of independence

Tuesday, Feb 1, 2011

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The head of Iraq's central bank said on Tuesday he was not worried the bank's independence may be compromised by a court ruling placing it under the cabinet, despite having warned Iraq's overseas assets could be at risk.The Iraqi supreme court last month ruled that several ostensibly independent institutions, including the central bank, the anti-corruption watchdog and the electoral agency, should be supervised by the cabinet, and not by parliament.

OK ...

There's a lot of finger pointing articles about whose fault it is that this isn't complete.

No sign of Kurdish oil exports scheduled for February 1 start (I know it was there yesterday but it's back)

Hashemi and Melkert discuss bringing Iraq out of Chapter 7 in full

Oh here's a good one : Deputy sabah Al Saadi: linking independent bodies under the chairmanship of Prime Minister to establish the legitimacy of dictatorship

I've run out of time ... sorry ... there was another but I don't see it presently.

Peace to all

Doc31

[Soldiering4U]

Doc You are really the best at what you do, thanks for keeping us informed

[Brisco]

Thanks Doc great job as usual I really do appreciate what you do It is the 1st thing read in the morning. THANKS again

[rsskelton]

As always Doc, excellent! Thanks.

[pops]

Thanks Doc.

Is there any day of the week that we should look for RV. Sunday morning or when Forex goes live or can it pop up at any time?

[txsrooster]

Thanks Doc..another good read this morning.

[PacoTaco]

Thanks Doc!

[Anita]

Thank you Doc31. Very good reading, as always. Thanks for keep us informed.

[Elixir]

thanks Doc for the time you spend to bring us good intel...

[Darin]

Love your work Doc.

For awhile, I was always thinking to myself.. The news seems a little slow. A couple things that I have noticed from an outside perspective.

For awhile the excessive pumping has drawn back.. Now the pumping that happens seems to be pushing RV dates out... (DT went from delayed shipments to near immediate shipments)

Correleated? Maybe... In my opinion, I was hoping it was the calm before the storm, but how long is the calm going to stick around?

As for the articles.. Its some-what hard to follow them.. I've nearly given up reading them because they seem to contradict themselves.

From Oil flowing in Kurdistan.. Than, no they won't resume, yes they will resume, no they won't.

Budget reading.. What reading are we on?? I'm going to assume we've only accomplished the first reading.. But others are saying we've completed the 2nd reading and the 3rd is the final reading.

Seating of the ministries. --- One minute it seems as if they're going to have it completed in imminent time, while another article states it'll be delayed.

Arab Summit - one article, March of 2011, another article.. It may not happen, another Article no delays it'll happen.

1 word... Frustrating!!!!!!!

Okay..... So let's say the following..

GOI has either read the budget 1 or 2 times.. Currently making necessary adjustments....... But delaying the next reading.

Arab Summit to be held in 2011 of March

Ministries picked, but not voted on, or confirmed.

Kurdistan about to flow oil, but waiting....

It seems to me as if something is holding this all up that they're waiting for. Who or what is it?????

If all of the above is still pending & Ch. 7 is fully lifted.. I think we'll see a circus going on over there as the rest of that stuff becomes completed & possibly throw a RV in there at some random time.

Ha...

It's the sanctions releasing in my opinion that could be a hold-up..

In other news, we're seeing that Iraq is pushing to become a WTO member. Now, they don't necessarily need to have a strong currency, but I do believe it has to be tradeable, right?

Here is 1 more thing to think about.... Why would Iraq insist on dragging their feet when March 2011 is "next" month......

We sit, we wait, we keep infomring ourselves.. But, remember to not take a lot of information to heart too much.. They may have a contradicting article the next day.

[jphillips]

I live for your analyses every morning Doc. My bridge to sanity on this roller coaster ride from hell

[freaky frank]

Thanks Doc and Also Darin for your comment too..........this is very frustrating...what's the hold up now??

[nackers]

Thanks for the intel Doc

[Darin]

Thanks Doc and Also Darin for your comment too..........this is very frustrating...what's the hold up now??

What are they WAITING FOR??

Pull the lever... There are PROFITS to be made...

Sheesh!!! It's almost like they don't want to get paid.

You got it in the pipeline, now start exporting..

*Shakes head*

Lunch break is over now...

[lgraham]

Great stuff as always Doc!.......I thought I would share a terrific analysis regarding the independence of the CBI. This was done by Enoch8. I believe this explains all the confusion and should put to rest many of the fears we have had about Maliki trying to take over the bank.

This is from Enoch8:

All the best my friend,

Lgraham

Look at this last statement from the Ministry spokesman: {Edited}

]Said the Spokesman Prime servant, "Resolution would not impair the independence of the bodies as its contribution to the Organization of work..." Mr.??? I believe that, the Executive role must be linked in the operational side of the Cabinet, as Parliament has legislative authority and cannot exercise executive powers."

I must regress just a bit, from previous statements I made and agree with what Duck said, in the other thread on this, for the following reason:

The Legislature (Parliament), does not have executive power.

All this means, is that CBI does not have exclusive authority to change monetary policy, and even though, it has some autonomy, it also must be compliant to legal authority.

It is impossible for them to be exclusively under Parliamentary authority, because Parliament can't legislate banking laws, without the signature of the 3 Presidencies, of which the Ministries are a part of, as the Ministries are, the lawful cabinet of the Prime Minister, hence the name, 'Prime Minister'. That is the Executive Branch of Government.

Just as the US banking system, reform goes through a legislative process, from 2 sources:

1. The Cabinet of the President, can submit recommendations of law to the President, that he submits to Congress or he has the power of Executive Order, both of which are subject to approval or over turning by the Legislative branch, which is Congress.

2. The Congress can introduce Law, that is subject to approval and Ratification, by the President, but they also have Legislative power by Super Majority, to override a veto.This looks to me, like the Court is ruling, that the Ministries, do indeed have the power of Ratification or Veto, of the Legislative actions, and it also may indicate powers of Executive Order, which Parliament, may also have an ability to overturn, just as in America.

I would also point out, that Chancellor Al Saleh, even said as much, last November, in discussion as to the effect, that CBI may require some legislative action, they would send to the Ministries of Planning and Finance, for submission to the Parliament for Ratification, that would of course, also require the signature of the 3 Presidents.

So..... in effect, this whole thing, was a lot of smoke, basically, and a severe lack of understanding, of how the democratic process works.

I think that is all this was about.

So..... my final thought is simple: This is a good thing and it gives clarity as to how Banking Legislation works in Iraq, and how the process works.

Was that the holdup all this time????? I bet it was. So it means simply, that all the rumors that either Shabibi or Maliki have the power to pull the trigger are erroneous. It requires both Legislative and Executive Powers, AND Shabibi would have the ability to review and submit recommendations, but it requires the Legal Process, to give grant him the authority.

I have always felt, that is the case and Al- Saleh even affirmed that previously.

Now we have clarity on the subject..... FINALLY!!!

Mark the dates: It was Jan. 26th the clarification from the Court to the Jan 18 ruling came down.

So Officially, that is done, as of Jan. 26th, 2011 and final..

Enoch8

[mlay901]

Thanks Doc!

[Pegleg]

Thank you Doc

[aferriss]

Thank you, Doc, for yet again, another down-to-earth report of what's happening for real. It's very much appreciated.

[salespro]

Thanks Doc!!!