CBI Currency Auction 1/10/2011

[Doc31]

Currency Auctions

Announcement No. (1810)

The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 10-JAN-2011.

The results were as follows:

DetailsNotesNumber of banks21

Auction price selling dinar / US$1170

Auction price buying dinar / US$-----

Amount sold at auction price (US$)264,329,000

Amount purchased at Auction price (US$)-----

Total offers for buying (US$)264,329,000

Total offers for selling (US$)-----

Exchange rates

Dollar's exchange rates / in Baghdad markets

Spot Oil up a bit

Spot Gold running in a $7 channel presently

Zeroes ... well the CBI webmaster failed to update the pdf again to show us a breakdown of the auction that was held. I'm sure that you will read about it later today in an article that the cash portion was 1.319M or less than 1/2%. But there is more to this ... I can only describe the posted volume today as "monster volume" ... remember that the zeroes began Oct 7 ... volume hasn't been this big since March 24! And before that oddly enough ... Jan 10 and 11th! Twenty One banks participated. As I looked at the pdf file the monster volume was still causing all of the little bells and whistles in my head to go off. I went back through all of 2009 and guess what? ... there was no volume that large UNTIL you get back to Jan 12th! Then Jan 5th ... I continued back into 2008 and found that only one date even got close to this but nothing in January. 2007 nothing got remotely that high. Oh, almost forgot ... so I'm calling it a near zero day. I just wonder why they pop their heads up for such a large "gulp" at this time the last few years. I mean it really sticks out when you look at all of the volumes.

I'm not going to say anything beyond ... "really makes you want to hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm (doesn't it?)"

Well Moqtada al-Sadr is back isn't he ... rabble rousing where he left off ... one article on unity ... another on directing al-Maliki to walk out if the US troops don't leave ... don't worry he will get worse ... lol ... after all he's only been back a few days ... probably out of practice ... I mean I only saw one article by the MOP (Minister of Propaganda ... chicken little himself) Mohammed Saleh last week. We've gotta' have someone to treat us like mushrooms!

There's an article this morning that says they will adjourn for another holiday after just returning from a 13 day holiday beginning "Tuesday next" until the 20th if I read it right. Hard work being an MP ... 9-10 months of luncheons and no action ... living large in the green zone then being slammed into action by the pressure being exerted by world powers and the MP's having to actually work a week here and a week there ... I'm guessing just totally out of shape for this sort of thing. The same article gives a ministry positions count and bears witness to the fact that many didn't even bother showing up after their last holiday.

I realize that it is a very poor translation but one sentence stuck out at me and troubled me :

The Iraqi parliament granted its fourth session, held, 21 of December of last year, the confidence of the Government of incomplete headed by Nuri al-Maliki.

Confidence is a huge word in a parliamentary government ... just the thought of a "lack of confidence vote" should conjure up nightmares for everyone concerned! Again, poor translation ... I'm not saying that this says that at all ... just that it made me flinch.

Well according to Frank26 we are what ... "T plus 10 or 11 days"? Please understand that I am absolutely NOT taking a shot at him ... in fact I read all of his posts ... he is the one that USUALLY sorts the order out of the chaos for me. And the guy gets 24K to 55K hits per night! No one else gets that kind of response. He is easily the most copy and pasted IQD guy on the net. As far as I know he has the biggest network of imbedded folks too. A typical post will contain something that either sounds so far fetched or it is so cryptic as to leave you saying "WHATTTTTTTTTTTTTTT???????" However, a great deal of the time 3 days later it is in the news.

My point is this ... even a guy giving it his best shot ... and I am certain that he is ... and even a guy with the most imbedded folks ... and the biggest network of people ... and who spends the most time peering into the "crystal ball" or probably a better analogy would be that ... even a master puzzle solver who has help and spends the most time working on the puzzle ... is still just working it out the best that he can himself!

Conclusion: DON'T GET ON THE ROLLER-COASTER ... and ... IF YOU ARE ON THE ROLLER-COASTER, GET OFF! It's okay to watch the wild looking ride from the ground (grounded?!) ... if you pull that bar back or you strap in ... well, you probably know the results.

Now in fairness to Frank26 the 10th is NOT over ... not only that but we know that countries tend to make the announcement AFTER-THE-FACT ... NOT when it would take a load off of our minds ... and Frank26 laid out several scenarios of "if this happens ... then this" and "if that happens ... then that" (go back and read if you didn't see it when it came out last week).

In re-reading this I'm concerned that some will think that I am making an example of Frank26 ... after all, "he has been wrong" ... and I would say yes that's true but he has been right 3 days in advance more times than I can count and PERHAPS 3 DAYS IS AS FAR AS ANYONE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE unless you are Shabibi or the other deal makers (IMF, UN, UNSC, world powers) ... the truth is that I would applaud Frank26 and hold him up ... since, as I said before, he has sorted the order from the chaos for me.

I heard a quote (again) this week ... and I will leave you with it.

"RISK IS THE PRICE YOU PAY FOR OPPORTUNITY" ... (it's the waiting that no one really talks very much about that is the hard part!)

Peace

Doc31

[tevye02]

Thanks Doc, Informative as usual

[Butifldrm]

Thanks for the post Doc31. Exchange rate PDF has still not been updated since the 5th. I am sure they just have not taken the time to update it.

[razorguy11]

Thanks for the post ! SPOT ON!

[inheritance]

Thanks Doc great read! (+)

[jphillips]

Thanks Doc. I am new to DV and truly enjoy reading your posts. They are informative and insightful. As a newbie, I understand that the 'monster volume' is significant, but I am not clear on what the impact or implication of this volume is. Can you share what the little 'bells and whistles' mean to you?

[NICKS]

Bravo! Excellent post!

[Hfeliu]

Great job, yet again Doc

[jack]

Translation of Doc's post

"I have no clue and the one person I respect also has no clue. No one has ever been right so stay grounded because we are all clueless"

Thanks for being honest Doc.

Jack

[Sparky69]

another good one.Thanks Doc

Sparky

[ktlamm]

I read all your post and want to say I enjoy all of them. Thanks so much for your time. Stay grounded. This ride aint over yet.....

[BadCobra]

Thanks Doc!

[Goldminer]

Thanks Doc31........ I assume to big volume to be replenishing inventory before going the remaining distance at zero levels. All the best.. GM

[Robinsnest]

Good Post. Thanks for your effort.

[FlyinEagle]

Thanks again, Doc31!

[Rayson]

Hi Doc! Thank you so much for all the work you do to get this information out to all of us.........I have really enjoyed your posts. My husband and I have had many discussions after reading your info. I do have a question though. I am under the assumption that Iraq is trying to bring in the "000's". and the info that you give us each day, is (if I'm assuming correctly) that the CBI is using USD's to buy back IQD's and not sell the IQD anymore. Can you varify that assumption to me? If that is true then, I can see why CBI is stalling with the RV. If I were Iraq, I would want as much of my undervalued currency brought back into the country before I pulled the trigger to increase its value. Am I looking at this in the correct way? Am I understanding your posts on the Auctions the correct way? So if this is true, then it seems like there can't be too much more out there for the CBI to try and pull back in as the countries holding the IQD's won't be selling them back and same for the 2% investors like us (as we are waiting for the RV)........TRUE????????

Thanks in advance for the clarification.

[lgraham]

Very nice post Doc........I was wondering how to explain what I feel like these days. You finally helped me figure it out. I am a mushroom!

Peace my friend,

Lgraham

[Doc31]

Oil running up this morning about $.60 to $89.50 on the site that I posted the chart from.

However ... averaging the Bloomberg numbers (NYMEX Crude $89.38, Dated Brent $95.04, and WTI Cushing spot $89.01) which is what I use to always post (you would see the ~$ where I did) it is $91.14

I don't want to change up in the middle of the ride ... just wanted you to know where the numbers come from.

Peace

Doc31

[prettybaby]

I like it!

[Pumperslovesheep]

CBI AUCTION WAS HUGE TODAY. $264,329,000 MILLIONS MAYBE LOWER DENOMS AUCTIONED

[AkinNAUY]

will adjourn for another holiday after just returning from a 13 day holiday beginning "Tuesday next" until the 20th if I read it right.

Thanks Doc...

Seriously?

[Dinars_ready]

Thanks Doc31,

Being a "newbie", I've learned to really appreciate your posts. I'm sure you've covered this question a trillion times, so when you, or other readers get a chance,

please direct me to previous explantations on "Zero" days. I'm sure I'll get blasted here for not understanding, but I don't get the

"so I'm calling it a near zero day" comment.

Thanks!

[Doc31]

Spot Gold $1375.60 at this hour

[Anita]

Thank you doc31-great read as always. Thank you for your hard work.

Edited January 11, 2011 by Anita

[zantac]

I just wonder why they pop their heads up for such a large "gulp" at this time the last few years. I mean it really sticks out when you look at all of the volumes.

At a guess on this one Doc I would go back to the archives on the Dinar forums

Look for the oh my god is going to RV tomorrow sort of post or its going to be $3+ on the 15th of January, or perhaps buy as much IQD as you possibly can this is going to pop real soon.

Over the last 3 years its been exactly the same, RV RI Imminent, all the pumpers come out in droves, all the suckers buy in floods & the currency traders rally around like headless chickens buying what ever they can, hence the big gulps of air every year at the same time.

Nothing new it’s just like following a pattern.

Give it until the end of the month it will all calm down & again the RV conspiracy theory starts again

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.