Tuesday Midnight Opinions - CDT - 10/04/2022

[ronscarpa]

Remember, no one really  knows what will happen, or when. They're simply stating  their opinions based on what they perceive to be happening in Iraq...  RON

 

 

*** Kaperoni   As the IMF stated, from the Article IV Consultation of 2013 with Iraq... they encourage Iraq to create the conditions which would make it possible...to move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. That may be true Kap, but a lot has changed on multiple levels since 2013 ... RON 

 

 

[screwball]

Kap is a flog and will always be…the also said that they need to create fiscal space and remove MCP….we will see 1:1 soon enough

[Luigi1]

6 hours ago, screwball said:

Kap is a flog and will always be…the also said that they need to create fiscal space and remove MCP….we will see 1:1 soon enough

 

The Kaps may be spot on...how can there be a RV-RI right now without a government, with riots going on, with Iran launching rockets in Kurdistan & GZ, with Iran stealing another 550 Billion IQD, with Iran-ISIS moving in, with outside investors to scared to come in ???

 

 

[Luigi1]

Iraq needs more WB loans just to pay wages...

 

 

From sources around the web...

The Cycle Of Conflicts Is Plunging Iraq’s Economy:

The Collapse Of Infrastructure & The Rise In Poverty To 30%.

 

Conflicts have contributed to the destruction and displacement of millions of Iraqis (Getty)

 

The war against ISIS in Iraq has ended , but other wars between yesterday’s partners and today’s parties erupted, amidst the chaos of arms and continuous political unrest & tensions, as happened a few days ago, which led to the deterioration of economic & living conditions & even threatened to stop the payment of salaries.

[screwball]

On 10/6/2022 at 1:29 AM, Luigi1 said:

 

The Kaps may be spot on...how can there be a RV-RI right now without a government, with riots going on, with Iran launching rockets in Kurdistan & GZ, with Iran stealing another 550 Billion IQD, with Iran-ISIS moving in, with outside investors to scared to come in ???

 

 

Kurdistan is a Kurdistan problem…Iran is irrelevant. A rate change will stop the stealing and corruption especially if the the rates are closer together even 1:1. Investors are not scared to come in this is propaganda…people think they need to diversify away from oil….BS…Kuwait didn’t, qatar didn’t, bahrain didn’t nor DUbai….oil and gas is oil and gas…they will Change rate when countries reset and they have too….you heard the the PM say they can’t pay salaries…

[screwball]

Saudia Arabia ia another country that hasn’t diversified their economy, it’s all oil and gas…they earn 360 billion USD per year from oil alone, and Iraq has more oil than them..

[screwball]

On 10/6/2022 at 1:29 AM, Luigi1 said:

 

The Kaps may be spot on...how can there be a RV-RI right now without a government, with riots going on, with Iran launching rockets in Kurdistan & GZ, with Iran stealing another 550 Billion IQD, with Iran-ISIS moving in, with outside investors to scared to come in ???

 

You know why riots are going on because they want the rate change…you know why Pakistan, Lebanon and Sri Lanka are rioting because their banks are broke…the soaring cost of living, no purchasing power no jobs and no food…why do countries need to reset because gold is the only safe money…why are countries buying up gold because the are going back to the gold standard. Why are countires spending up big because their debts will be wiped under a new gold standard…including Iraqs. They can use in ground assest to back their currency including oil gas and gold, this make Iraq a very rich country.

[screwball]

Every theory Kaperoni gives is incorrect and has been for years along with all the other guru flogs who use rumours sold as Intel to rip people off. There are no boots on the ground..

[screwball]

On 10/5/2022 at 4:45 PM, ronscarpa said:

they encourage Iraq to create the conditions which would make it possible...to move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate

He might want to read the 16/17 reports because this is old and outdated the magic word is “could” they stated in 2016 “sizeable fiscal adjustment” does this mean slow and gradual.

[screwball]

IMF calls for the restructuring of the rational and Rafidain 

 

"The IMF urged the Iraqi authorities to take further measures to strengthen oversight and implement plans to restructure state-owned banks that control the banking system, including the Rashid and Rafidain banks, strengthen the legal framework of the Central Bank, and eliminate the remaining restriction on the exchange rate and the practice of multiple exchange rates , And the implementation of measures to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism and fight corruption.

[screwball]

I have posted this but don’t have link from previous article or post Also, the IMF in the past few days stated, that Iraq had to stop the auctions and increase the value of its currency or no new loans

[screwball]

Do you everything these alleged issues are all because of their currency being shite

[screwball]

Deteriorations, civil unrest always occur before a reset especially after periods of high inflation no money no jobs

[tigergorzow]

4 hours ago, screwball said:

I have posted this but don’t have link from previous article or post Also, the IMF in the past few days stated, that Iraq had to stop the auctions and increase the value of its currency or no new loans

screwball Thanks,  Always Keeping the faith....👍👍🙏🙏GO RV / RI

[Steelwire]

Thanks screwball, I agree with your statements .....  keep sending them comments 👍

[Luigi1]

15 hours ago, screwball said:

Kurdistan is a Kurdistan problem…Iran is irrelevant. A rate change will stop the stealing and corruption especially if the the rates are closer together even 1:1. Investors are not scared to come in this is propaganda…people think they need to diversify away from oil….BS…Kuwait didn’t, qatar didn’t, bahrain didn’t nor DUbai….oil and gas is oil and gas…they will Change rate when countries reset and they have too….you heard the the PM say they can’t pay salaries…

 

Not disagreeing but here's my take on this...

I worked in the Middle East for 12 years as a DOD contractor with the US Army as a procurement officer.

The OPEC nations have very diversified economies...some examples are..

 

-UAE is the Switzerland international banking system of the Middle East.

-Bahrain is also becoming a regional international banking hub.

-Saudi Arabia & Kuwait are more industrialized than many think.

-I procured made in region industrial parts & services for the US Army in both Saudi Arabia & in Kuwait.

 They manufacture a lot.  The Saudis refine fuels & chemicals for the entire region.

-Auto manufacturing plants are setting up shop in the region.

-Saudi Arabia & UAE build super tankers & shipping & have the dry docks to overhaul.

-Iraq will soon build their own refineries...in the meantime they import oil & electricity.

-Iraq, Bahrain & Quatar are agricultural zones & export produce & livestock to the region.

-UAE & Kuwait are becoming free trade zone hubs to include the creation of a duty free zone.

-All above nations are dependent on oil yet have or are in the process of diversifying their economies.

-Yemen is the only country left out...no oil, no industry, no agriculture & no economy.

 

[Luigi1]

6 minutes ago, Luigi1 said:

 

Not disagreeing but here's my take on this...

I worked in the Middle East for 12 years as a DOD contractor with the US Army as a procurement officer.

The OPEC nations have very diversified economies...some examples are..

 

-UAE is the Switzerland international banking system of the Middle East.

-Bahrain is also becoming a regional international banking hub.

-Saudi Arabia & Kuwait are more industrialized than many think.

-I procured made in region industrial parts & services for the US Army in both Saudi Arabia & in Kuwait.

 They manufacture a lot.  The Saudis refine fuels & chemicals for the entire region.

-Auto manufacturing plants are setting up shop in the region.

-Saudi Arabia & UAE build super tankers & shipping & have the dry docks to overhaul.

-Iraq will soon build their own refineries...in the meantime they import oil & electricity.

-Iraq, Bahrain & Quatar are agricultural zones & export produce & livestock to the region.

-UAE & Kuwait are becoming free trade zone hubs to include the creation of a duty free zone.

-All above nations are dependent on oil yet have or are in the process of diversifying their economies.

-Yemen is the only country left out...no oil, no industry, no agriculture & no economy.

 

 

Let me add this one too...

Saudi Arabia now builds many of it's own weapons systems & exports or are assembled in region.

[Steelwire]

But the point still remains ..... where would they be without their oil income.... Answer is in the toilet.

 

In comparison what percentage of the US GDP is in Oil sales abroad vs. any of these middle eastern countries. Unlike the US, none of these countries survive without their oil exports. Iraq needs to have pull the trigger and RV with an international currency. Then they can develop and diverse their economy. IMO  

[screwball]

The government will gradually remove remaining exchange restrictions and multiple currency practice (MCP) with a view to eliminating exchange rate distortions. Such a move towards acceptance of the obligations under Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement will send a positive signal to the investment community that Iraq is committed
 

D. Fiscal Policy 

21. In order to maintain macroeconomic stability, the government commits to implement a large fiscal consolidation to bring spending into line with available resources in 2015 and 2016. This will require: (i) a sizable reduction in the non-oil primary balance2 (quantitative targets, Table 1), of about 12 percent of non-oil GDP (ID 24 trillion, or $20 billion) over 2013–16;3 and (ii) a large increase in mostly domestic but also external financing over the short run that will remain compatible with debt sustainability in the medium run. In order to minimize the impact of the fiscal consolidation on the population, the government will protect social spending, i.e. spending on health, education, and transfers in support of the social safety net, the internally displaced and the refugees (quantitative targets, Tables 1 and 3). 
 

if you put this into context with the PM saying they have no money to pay salaries then this fiscal consolidation will need to be sizeable to allow them to protect social spending…. Remember they also used the words “fiscal space”

[screwball]

18 hours ago, Luigi1 said:

 

Let me add this one too...

Saudi Arabia now builds many of it's own weapons systems & exports or are assembled in region.

It’s the oil investment that allows the to this and not at Iraqs current rate 

[Luigi1]

3 hours ago, screwball said:

It’s the oil investment that allows the to this and not at Iraqs current rate 

 

Yes.  Oil does go a long ways.

Iraq could be decades out when it comes to diversifying their economy, including the RV.

Iraq has squandered opportunity after opportunity to advance it's own economy.

Everything is not done in Iraq as the Gurus keep on telling us.  IMO.