* Enorrste Post:GET TEAM(Where we are as of August 16)8/16/10

[Ruve]

* Enorrste Post:GET TEAM(Where we are as of August 16)8/16/10

August 15, 2010 · Posted in CHATS / POSTS

Enorrste

■Where we are as of August 16

« on: Today at 09:27:38 PM »

■Quote

The following notes will give you an idea of the state of confusion in Iraq at this time.

Afterwards I will attempt to make some sense of this all.

Once again all of this information comes from documents on our site. I have just summarized them to hopefully make it all more understandable.

Let’s start.

Informed sources revealed that members of the Shiite Dawa Party, voted unanimously to select a new candidate for prime minister instead of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s mandate. The sources close to the National Alliance (the State of law and the Iraq National Alliance) said that the vote was done in the presence of the leader of Maliki, “and that for the first time it showed some flexibility on this issue.”

Negotiations between the two alliances of Iraqiya and the State of Law could reach an agreement to form a national partnership government within the coming few days, according to an Iraqiya spokesman.

“The stances of both alliances have become clearer regarding the formation of the new government.”

However, the spokesman also noted that the Iraqiya Alliance has another plan-B, namely that it also has negotiations with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA).

Meanwhile Maliki met with Ambasssdor Feltman of the US and came out of the meeting saying, “that he asserted that the dialogues are going on in the right direction and he expressed optimism about reaching a solution satisfactory to all partners soon.”

Khalid Asadi of the State of Law told a news briefing that the political process is starting to see new approaches will allow the parliamentary blocs to form a government within the next few days.

Assadi reiterated that the National Alliance still exists, referring to the coalition reached between the State of Law and the INA, and he also referred to the substantial convergence with the National Alliance and the Kurdish alliance.

Asadi said that the State of Law bloc had offered the Iyad Allawi the post of parliament speaker and the chairmanship of a strategic-policy council that will have executive powers in return for nominating Maliki to a second term as prime minister.

But Bayati, a leading official of the Iraqi National Alliance, said that State of Law had been officially informed that talks with them will be conclusively broken off if they do not agree to drop Maliki and replace him with another candidate for prime minister.

He said if State of Law failed to meet this condition, his bloc would initiate talks with the Iraqiya List and the Kurdish bloc.

Mr. Othman, a leading member of the Kurdish bloc, said that the Kurds have circulated to the respective political factions a “road map” for national partnership, including settlement of all outstanding issues between the Kurdish regional government and Baghdad.

Meanwhile outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill said that the pace of political progress in Iraq had accelerated in recent weeks and that “things may be heading in the right direction.” Of course since he said this a few days ago he has now left Iraq, presumably for good.

Then we got this interesting statement: Nuri Shaways in a television interview with Al-Iraqiya semi-government, on Saturday evening, said “the government was holding activities to find a replacement for the Protection of the Development Fund for Iraq’s assets. Notice that in this article the Iraqiya List is called a “semi-government”. Does this mean that it is a government awaiting the announcement that it is taking the leadership of the new government? I believe that it does mean that, and that this was a slip up on the part of the reporter.

At the same time a Leader of Kurdistan Alliance, Sami Shoresh, said that the party presented a working paper containing solutions and exits to the political crisis in the country during his meetings with most of the political forces last week.

He added that the paper contains proposals for the redistribution of the powers of the executive branch and the distribution between the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers and the Secretary-General of the Political Council for National Security and the President of the Republic. Unfortunately, for any of this to work they would have to amend the constitution, so let’s not hold our breath on that working paper bringing out any hope for us.

Then Syria is leading a working plan with the backing of Saudi Arabia and Iran in which they have stepped in to state that they are working behind the scenes to get the government of Iraq formed and they even promised that the process would be completed in a few days. Once again we see the phrase, “in a few days.”

In the meantime, Ammar al-Hakim of the INA says that an agreement will be announced within days with the Iraqi List led by Iyad Allawi and the Kurdish Alliance; he called on his rival, namely “Allawi’s bloc” to “respond to the status quo” as far as non-alliance with any political bloc. I find this interesting since it is Hakim’s group, the INA, that has aligned with the State of Law. So is the pot calling the kettle black? I think so.

So where are we? Well, we know that Allawi has unofficially accepted the 19 conditions from the Kurdish Alliance and that at this point Maliki is just “looking into them”. Therefore, as I stated last call, the Iraqiya List has the momentum at this point.

However, what we have seen, if anything, is that the phrase “in a few days” means something entirely different in Iraq than it does in the US.

So, is there any hope? I believe there is and I will tell you all why.

The fact is that we saw that there is great concern among the law makers that the contracts that they have signed may have to be renegotiated now due to the fact that there is effectively no legal government to honor the original signed contracts. Of these contracts, and there are over 100 of them, many have been negotiated at a new rate of exchange of at least $3.00 per dinar, according to information I have received. At this time, however, they are on the verge of being in default. This gives the country and government, as it is, a great incentive to resolve the formation of the government as soon as possible.

However, as if that weren’t bad enough, there is also the very real possibility now that countries which have forgiven debt based upon the promise of the RV in the near future are on the verge of re-instating the debts due to the effective default of the government to live up to its promises.

Therefore, I believe that the activity that we are seeing in the last few days is indicative of the near “state of panic” within the leadership of Iraq. The entire kettle is about to be spilled out if they do not act quickly and decisively. The players are seen scurrying around from meeting to meeting like ants at an anthill when a piece of meat is dropped nearby. Everyone is active; everyone is worried; everyone is on the edge of his seat.

This, in my opinion, is very good for us indeed. I believe that it means that the “few days” spoken of by so many of these leaders is coming to a close. Whether the period of “a few days” will continue for 1 day, 3 days, or a week longer is not known. But I think we may all rest assured that it is within sight.

Therefore the announcement of the new government is now “imminent”, in my terms. Talabani is ready to reconvene the parliament, which will rubber stamp the new government. Then we get the RV shortly thereafter.

Of course I could be wrong.

Steve

[kingfish]

This stuff actually makes some sense.

Problem is... does it come from actual articles that are accurate...... or is he just really good at writing fiction??????

[truckerron49]

Thanks for the post. We just keep reading and hoping. It is for us, what there is to do...........Go RV !!!!!!!!!!!

[PAPATOM]

Thanks for the post.

[lancer22]

"Informed sources" Hmmmmm. Makes one think eh?

[Drez]

Great post,

[RAB42]

GREAT POST THANK YOU

[Captjohn]

Good analysis, nice post. Thanks.

We wait.

[kaka]

thc you for nice post go Rv

[MrRich]

Therefore the announcement of the new government is now “imminent”, in my terms. Talabani is ready to reconvene the parliament, which will rubber stamp the new government. Then we get the RV shortly thereafter.

Of course I could be wrong.

Steve

I think he should end these updates with "of course I'm usually wrong"

[WickedWays]

Of course I could be wrong.

Steve

You have been 100% of the time!!!! That's because you leave out this little thing called facts!!!!

WW

Edited August 16, 2010 by WickedWays

[nxster]

In a few day's, well maybe soon, In a few day's, well maybe soon, well maybe next year at this rate. I hope it's sooner than a few day's :lol:

[Traconesu02]

Thanks for the post Ruve

[Uncle Barkie]

Thanks for the post... I always enjoy a great piece of fiction....lol

[Steveruss]

Thanks for the post

[VICTORIALAWIZZA]

thanks for the post!

[Rodrigo1]

Thanks for the post!!! It sounds eerily similar to a post I saw that came from the big comfy couch ... oh no, wait - that's a kid's show... LOL!

I'm still holding out for an RV any day, just call me the eternal optimist!

Edited August 16, 2010 by Rodrigo1

[Matt]

Thanks for the post.

And I agree, He needs to change it to "Of course, I could be wrong, and most likely will be"

[k98nights]

I think he should end these updates with "of course I'm usually wrong"

He's always wrong... along with TK and Gankans.