Adel Abdul-Mahdi responds to the Minister of Finance regarding the lack of cash

[yota691]

Adel Abdul-Mahdi responds to the Minister of Finance regarding the lack of cash

 2020/10/13

 

 1884

Baghdad / Al-Mawred News

 

Former Prime Minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, responded, on Tuesday, to the statements of Finance Minister Ali Allawi regarding the lack of financial liquidity.

And Abdul-Mahdi said in a statement that he said:

Figures and facts are an argument for rational people

We are using the statements of the Minister of Finance recently for a number of media outlets to present some figures and facts according to their reliable sources, with the aim of surrounding bids and correcting a lot of popular false information, allowing the cooperation of everyone from government, political and societal forces and public opinion to get out of the country's economic crisis.

Dr. Ali Allawi, Minister of Finance, is one of the advanced Iraqi minds and possesses the courage and knowledge that makes him the right man in the right place in the right circumstance. Dr. Allawi conducted a series of media interviews, and he was objective in his presentation and criticism of the policies pursued by successive governments and the financial crisis that the country is currently suffering from, as he referred to several things, but we will address here two main points raised:

A - Lack of sufficient liquidity at the state.

B - The decision of "OPEC Plus" to reduce the production of countries to improve prices, which obligated Iraq to reduce its oil exports.

We will resort to simplification and rounding of numbers for the sake of ease. All figures provided are from the World Bank and official data, except for what we do from private accounts.

First: Lack of liquidity and who bears responsibility?

1- Since we canceled at the end of the fifties the last century the decision to allocate oil resources to the Reconstruction Council and gradually transfer them to finance the Iraqi budget, so that the state budget, but the entire Iraqi economy, became subject to oil resources, we, that is, governments, culture and behavior of two years, bear the responsibility for that. This historical reality was submitted, despite warnings from the wise people, and despite some official attempts that were not entrenched and were quickly aborted. Thus, the country's money went into absurdities, wrong approaches, and internal and external wars.

2- After 2003, the treasury was completely empty. Rather, the external debt exceeded $ 120 billion, and the internal debt was difficult to calculate. So, the domestic debt was canceled, except for the central bank’s debt, and Iraq succeeded in the Paris Club negotiations, and the external debt was reduced at a rate close to 90%.

3- All governments have consistently relied on employment as a main means to absorb rising unemployment. Rather, education, the private sector and societal concepts have adapted to this trend. In 2004, the number of employees was close to 750,000, and the same was the number of retirees. Today, the numbers have escalated to about 8 million employees and retirees, which is 5 times those numbers, not to mention an uncontrolled increase in operating and consumption expenditures and allocations at the expense of developing the national economy. The average individual salary before the change was about 2-3 dollars a month and increased in 2017 to about 663 dollars, according to reports by Arab organizations. At the time, the price of oil was 20-30 dollars and the volume of exports was 1.5-2 million barrels. Nevertheless, the state did not face any difficulty, as is currently the case, in paying salaries, except during the period of blockade and sanctions, so it resorted to the inflationary monetary issuance that led to the collapse of the dinar from 0.33 dinars / dollars to 3000 dinars / dollar with intense fluctuations.

4- The numbers differed from the liquidity available to the current government when it took over the responsibility .. In the first statements it was said that the treasury was empty, then it was said that 700-800 million dollars ... and many things were said, less and more, while the Minister of Finance affirmed in his recent statements that the liquidity was 1.3 One trillion dinars ($ 1.1 billion). It is agreed that there is a collapse in state resources due to the dependence of the economy and state expenditures on oil resources that collapsed with the collapse of oil prices, as well as the high expenditures due to entrenched policies that face strong resistance when seeking to address them as a historical factor, and because of the protest movement and Corona as current factors.

5- Let us take the role of the previous government in two stages:

1- During 2019, without mentioning the last 68 days of 2018:

From 2018 to the 2019 budget, he totaled 7.759 trillion dinars (6.564 billion dollars). It is true that what the current government received from the previous government in May 2020 is less than this amount, after the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2020, protests and demands, etc. That is, the previous government suffered from what the current government suffers from increased expenditures and fewer imports. At the end of 2019, treasury reserves were nearly three times over the cycle from 2018 to 2019. The economy witnessed growing progress during 2019 despite the decline in oil prices from $ 65.5 per barrel on average in 2018 to $ 61.1 / barrel in 2019, a difference of $ 4.4 per barrel per day. This alone represents a decrease in revenues of $ 5.584 billion based on actual oil exports, which amounted to 3.540 million / b / day in 2019, compared to 3. 5 m / b / d in 2018, and oil revenues and grants increased from about $ 90 billion in 2018 to $ 91 billion in 2019. Note that liabilities and expenditures increased - also - significant increases due to claims and demonstrations, especially in the last quarter of 2019 and early 2020 And because of the increase in the budget of the Popular Mobilization Forces and equating them with the rest of the forces, and paying part of the Kurdistan budget in proportion to Muslim oil, according to the 2019 budget law, as well as the payment of many debts and dues, as will be indicated below. The year 2019 witnessed an advance in the per capita rate. Noting that liabilities and expenditures have increased - also - significant increases due to demands and demonstrations, especially in the last quarter of 2019 and early 2020, and because of the increase in the budget of the Popular Mobilization Forces and equating them with the rest of the forces, and the payment of part of the Kurdistan budget in proportion to Muslim oil, according to the 2019 budget law, as well as Pay off a lot of debts and dues, as discussed below. The year 2019 witnessed an advance in the per capita rate. Noting that liabilities and expenditures have increased - also - significant increases due to demands and demonstrations, especially in the last quarter of 2019 and early 2020, and because of the increase in the budget of the Popular Mobilization Forces and equating them with the rest of the forces, and the payment of part of the Kurdistan budget in proportion to Muslim oil, according to the 2019 budget law, as well as Pay off a lot of debts and dues, as discussed below. The year 2019 witnessed an advance in the per capita rate.per capita ) of gross national product, and it reached 5,841 dollars per capita  in 2019, compared to 5,641 in 2018, according to the World Bank. These indicate an escalating line of progress, starting from 2018 and 2019, as the country surpassed the financial crisis of 2014-2015 and the war against ISIS, and began a phase of tangible progress and recovery.

• Central bank reserves increased at the end of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 to $ 67.6 billion, compared to $ 64.3 billion at the end of 2018.

• Accumulating nearly one billion dollars in the Chinese / Iraqi investment fund, so the government withdrew most of it, if not all, to fill some of the budget deficit. This fund is an important opportunity to put oil in the service of reconstruction and exit from the rentier economy, which we hope will not be forfeited.

• In the 2019 and 2020 harvest, a large stock of wheat, barley, rice, vegetables and livestock was close to self-sufficiency, which saved large costs that were allocated to imports, and helped and help Iraq today in pandemic conditions in preventing price increases, and the availability of necessary commodities in the markets. This is one of the important breakthroughs to develop real sectors and reduce dependence on oil, and it seems that the current government is determined to maintain this trend, which is what we hope for. In addition to the availability of a large water reserve that exceeded 50 billion cubic meters of water, after investing in rains and torrents in 2019, which will help in facing water scarcity in the upcoming non-humid years.

• The electric power increased in the summer of 2019 by about 23% than it was in the summer of 2018. The cutting hours in 2019 were less than in other years. There was some decline in the summer of 2020, but there is a good trend to reduce the suffering of citizens in the summer of 2021

Increased dependence in 2019 on the national currency, as it increased by 8% compared to 2018, according to the World Bank report, and we made progress in localizing salaries by more than 30% by the end of 2019, after the target was 15%, which reduces the aliens and helps in Spread banking habit, and get rid of paper currency economics. Dr. Allawi confirmed that the rate of Emiratization has reached 40% today, and this is in the right direction.

• The contribution of non-oil sectors increased by 4.9% of the gross national product in 2019 compared to 2018, and this alone means 11.47 billion dollars added to the national economy.

• Public debt declined from $ 115.2 billion in 2017 to $ 110.4 billion in 2018 to $ 104.4 billion in 2019. The external debt to $ 54 billion in 2019 instead of $ 59 billion and $ 69.5 billion for the years 2018 and 2017, and in these important differences and trends that help the budget And the economy ... and many other things, such as paying a lot of dues and addressing the problems of stalled projects, which allowed the restoration of activities to many non-oil sectors, the return of hundreds of projects to work, the movement of billions of dollars, as well as the return of hundreds of thousands of unemployed to work. As the National Investment Commission’s book No. 52 dated 20/10/2019 states that the number of projects covered by procedures and solutions for the period from 1/1/2019 to 8/31/2019 included 465 investment projects. In various sectors, with a financial value of more than $ 27 billion, it contributed to employing approximately 396,000 workers in various governorates, either directly or indirectly. In addition to re-announcing the projects originally withdrawn their licenses, amounting to 181 projects worth 21 billion dollars, and employing 386 thousand workers, so that the total number of projects that have been dealt with during the above period is 646 investment projects worth 48 billion dollars, and the employment of 782 thousand workers, all of that According to the authority book above.

Many other details can be included, and in order not to prolong and exhaust the reader, we believe that what was presented is sufficient to clarify the positive general trends that have begun to take their contexts in application despite the short period.

2- During the five months of 2020:

The difference between what was recycled from 2018 and what was delivered in April 2020, according to recent statements by the Minister of Finance, is approximately $ 5.4 billion ($ 6.5 billion - $ 1.1 billion), and what was left under the government’s hands, but rather in the national economy’s reserves, and what was paid Of the debts, and the real sectors that have been activated outside the oil cycle and the dollar cycle, they can and must be invested, in order to face the many pressures and negatives that everyone agrees that they are in power - as the Minister of Finance also asserts.

• The collapse of oil prices, which   reached  $ 17 during the first quarter of 2020, to now settle at about $ 40 after the cuts made by "OPEC Plus" in 2020. The official here is a rentier economy at the expense of the real economy on the one hand, and international markets that we do not control. On the other hand, in addition to a continuous increase in expenditures, we did not find, as officials, legislators, and community culture possible practical contexts to reduce them.

Pressures due to the protests and demonstrations since October 2019, in which everyone demanded that their just demands be met, the most important of which is employment, improving salaries, etc. In addition to the losses it caused, which disrupted and threatened many interests and businesses with all the damages that accompanied them by missing opportunities, disrupting interests or destroying property and assets.

The Corona pandemic that began with the beginning of 2020 and has escalated to disrupt public activities and life, including the economy. On 10/10/2020, the deaths reached 9,790 deaths. It is impossible for any government without the cooperation of the people and society to stop the brunt of the pandemic that has placed Iraq today as the 15th most affected country in the world and first in the Arab world.

Second: OPEC agreement to reduce production

1- A decrease of one dollar in oil prices affects, by 0.14% of the gross national product, negatively or positively, the current export rates. Everyone knows that oil prices have continued to decline throughout the first quarter of 2020, and on April 2 it reached less than $ 17 a barrel. And many countries sold their oil at a loss to fill the reservoirs and inability to store more. In fact, this price barely covers the costs, even for countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which are known for their low extraction costs

2- At a price of $ 17 a barrel, Iraq's resources will not be more than $ 21.9 billion annually ($ 1.825 billion per month) without counting costs, even if it exports the full amount stipulated by the budget, i.e. 3.540 million barrels per day. This is much less than the resources generated from exporting quantities after the "OPEC Plus" cuts. If we take last September, then the exported quantities according to "SOMO" are 2.613 million barrels per day, with imports amounting to 3.167 billion dollars (excluding costs as well), and at a preliminary weighted average price of 40.407 dollars a barrel.

3- Iraq has resisted all pressures on it to adhere to the previous OPEC "quota". The Doha Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela on February 16, 2016 was rejected during the talks that took place in Tehran between the Iraqi, Iranian, Venezuelan and Qatari oil ministers. Iraq clung to its position until, after a few months, it was forced to accept the reduction measure demanded by OPEC and Russia. As for the recent oil crisis in 2019-2020, other countries have complained about Iraq's position that is not committed to the agreement they pledged with "OPEC Plus". After the markets were flooded with the oil surplus, SOMO complained that the companies and refineries contracting with Iraq are abandoning their contracts due to the decline in economic growth rates at the global level and the lack of sufficient reservoirs for them, and that there are offers for prices better than those of Iraq. In the April 2020 price-setting meeting, the Oil Ministry was forced to keep pace with Saudi Arabia by reducing its prices to preserve its contracts and markets. The problem is not a decision that Iraq takes to export whatever it wants. Markets are buyers' markets, not sellers. In the current situation, buyers find oil that is less expensive, sometimes even better. That is why we tell those who think about the quantity to think of the price as well. Things should not be simplified outside of their realistic circumstances.

4- No one prevents the government from abandoning the "OPEC Plus" agreement and declaring that it will return to previous export rates, that is, 3,540 for the south or 3,850 million barrels / day for the whole of Iraq. Nothing but anticipation of the collapse of prices and of holding Iraq accountable, not only internally, but also internationally. A drop of one dollar in oil prices would mean Imports decreased by 2.6 million dollars per day, at the current rate of exports (2.6 MB). To compensate for the decline of one dollar, exports must rise by 65,000 barrels per day, assuming the price remains at around $ 40 a barrel. If the government arrives at an estimate that it can increase exports without affecting prices, it must do so. The same could happen if a foreign party capable of bearing the differences confronts the interest of Iraq. When Mexico refused to abide by the reduction, which is around 400 thousand barrels per day, the "OPEC Plus" agreement nearly collapsed, and with it prices collapsed, had it not been for the United States pledging to bear the greater part of the Mexican quota, and Mexico shouldered the rest. "

 

 

[yota691]

Without shame, Adel Abdul Mahdi talks about his great achievements and sends a message to the Iraqis

An hour ago

00 6 minutes

The eighth day electronic newspaper

Former Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi reviewed today, Tuesday, what he said are the achievements of his government, in a lengthy response to the statements of the current Minister of Finance, Ali Abdul-Amir Allawi.

Abdul Mahdi said in a lengthy post published on his official page, followed by “The Eighth Day,” (October 13, 2020), which reads:

Towards a better understanding of reality:

Figures and facts are an argument for rational people

 

We are using the statements of the Minister of Finance recently for a number of media outlets to present some figures and facts according to their reliable sources, with the aim of surrounding bids and correcting a lot of popular false information, allowing the cooperation of everyone from the government, political and societal forces and public opinion to get out of the country's economic crisis.

Dr. Ali Allawi, Minister of Finance, is one of the advanced Iraqi minds and possesses the courage and knowledge that makes him the right man in the right place in the right circumstance. Dr. Allawi conducted a series of media interviews, and he was objective in his presentation and criticism of the policies pursued by successive governments and the financial crisis that the country is currently suffering from, as he referred to several things, but we will address here two main points raised: A- The lack of adequate liquidity in the state. B - The decision of "OPEC Plus" to reduce the production of countries to improve prices, which obligated Iraq to reduce its oil exports. We will resort to simplification and rounding of numbers for the sake of ease. All figures provided are from the World Bank and official data, except for what we do from private accounts.

First: Lack of liquidity and who bears responsibility?

1- Since we canceled at the end of the fifties the last century the decision to allocate oil resources to the Reconstruction Council and gradually transfer them to finance the Iraqi budget, so that the state budget, but the entire Iraqi economy, became subject to oil resources, we, that is, governments, culture and behavior of two years, bear the responsibility for that. This historical reality was subjected to submission, despite the limitations of rational people, and despite some official attempts that were not entrenched and aborted quickly. Thus, the country's money went to the absurd, the wrong methods, and the internal and external war.

2- After 2003, the treasury was completely empty. Rather, the external debt exceeded $ 120 billion, and the internal debt was difficult to calculate. So, the domestic debt was canceled, except for the central bank’s debt, and Iraq succeeded in the Paris Club negotiations, and the external debt was reduced at a rate close to 90%.

3- All governments have consistently relied on employment as a major means of absorbing rising unemployment. Rather, education, the private sector and societal concepts have adapted to this trend. In 2004, the number of employees was close to 750,000, and the same was the number of retirees. Today, the numbers have escalated to about 8 million employees and retirees, which is 5 times those numbers, not to mention an uncontrolled increase in operating and consumption expenditures and allocations at the expense of developing the national economy. The average individual salary before the change was about 2-3 dollars a month and increased in 2017 to about 663 dollars, according to reports by Arab organizations. At the time, the price of oil was 20-30 dollars and the volume of exports was 1.5-2 million barrels. Nevertheless, the state did not face any difficulty, as is currently the case, in paying salaries, except during the period of blockade and sanctions, so it resorted to the inflationary monetary issuance that led to the collapse of the dinar from 0.33 dinars / dollars to 3000 dinars / dollar with intense fluctuations.

4- The numbers differed from the liquidity available to the current government upon receiving responsibility .. In the first statements it was said that the treasury was empty, then it was said that 700-800 million dollars ... and many things were said, less and more, while the Minister of Finance affirmed in his recent statements that the liquidity was 1.3 trillion dinars ($ 1.1 billion). It is agreed that there is a collapse in state resources due to the dependence of the economy and state expenditures on oil resources that collapsed with the collapse of oil prices, as well as the high expenditures due to entrenched policies that face strong resistance when seeking to address them as a historical factor, and because of the protest movement and Corona as current factors.

5- Let us take the role of the previous government in two stages:

1- During 2019, without mentioning the last 68 days of 2018:

From 2018 to the 2019 budget, he totaled 7.759 trillion dinars (6.564 billion dollars). It is true that what the current government received from the previous government in May 2020 is less than this amount, after the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2020 and the protests and meeting demands, etc. That is, the previous government suffered from what the current government suffers from increased expenditures and fewer imports. At the end of 2019, treasury reserves were nearly three times over the cycle from 2018 to 2019. The economy witnessed growing progress during 2019 despite the decline in oil prices from $ 65.5 per barrel on average in 2018 to $ 61.1 / barrel in 2019, a difference of $ 4.4 per barrel per day. This alone represents a decline in revenues of $ 5.584 billion based on actual oil exports, which amounted to 3,540 million / b / d in 2019, compared to 3.5 m / b / d in 2018, and oil revenues and grants increased from about $ 90 billion in 2018 to 91 billion. Dollars in 2019. Noting that liabilities and expenditures have increased - also - significant increases due to demands and demonstrations, especially in the last quarter of 2019 and early 2020, and because of the increase in the budget of the Popular Mobilization Forces and equating them with the rest of the forces, and the payment of part of the Kurdistan budget in proportion to Muslim oil, according to the 2019 budget law, as well as Pay off a lot of debts and dues, as discussed below. The year 2019 witnessed progress in the per capita rate of gross national product, and it reached 5,841 dollars per capita in 2019, compared to 5,641 in 2018, according to the World Bank. These indicate an escalating line of progress, starting from 2018 and 2019, as the country overcame the financial crisis in 2014-2015 and the war against regulation, and began a phase of tangible progress and recovery.

- Central bank reserves increased at the end of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 to $ 67.6 billion, compared to $ 64.3 billion at the end of 2018.

- Accumulating nearly one billion dollars in the Chinese / Iraqi investment fund, so the government withdrew most of it, if not all, to fill some of the budget deficit. This fund is an important opportunity to put oil in the service of reconstruction and exit from the rentier economy, which we hope will not be forfeited.

- In the 2019 and 2020 harvest, a large stock of wheat, barley, rice, vegetables and livestock was close to self-sufficiency, which saved large costs that were allocated to imports, and helped and help Iraq today in pandemic conditions in preventing price rises, and the availability of necessary commodities in the markets. This is one of the important breakthroughs to develop real sectors and reduce dependence on oil, and it seems that the current government is determined to maintain this trend, which is what we hope for. In addition to the availability of a large water reserve that exceeded 50 billion cubic meters of water, after investing in rains and torrents in 2019, which will help in facing water scarcity in the upcoming non-humid years.

- The electric power increased in the summer of 2019 by about 23% than it was in the summer of 2018. The hours of cutting in 2019 were less than in other years. There was some decline in the summer of 2020, but there is a good trend to reduce the suffering of citizens in the summer of 2021

- Increased dependence in 2019 on the national currency, as it increased by 8% compared to 2018, according to the World Bank report, and we made progress in localizing salaries by more than 30% by the end of 2019, after the target was 15%, which reduces the aliens and helps in Spread banking habit, and get rid of paper currency economics. Dr. Allawi confirmed that the rate of Emiratization has reached 40% today, and this is in the right direction.

The contribution of non-oil sectors increased by 4.9% of the gross national product in 2019 compared to 2018, and this alone means $ 11.47 billion added to the national economy.

Public debt declined from $ 115.2 billion in 2017 to $ 110.4 billion in 2018 to $ 104.4 billion in 2019. The external debt to $ 54 billion in 2019 instead of $ 59 billion and $ 69.5 billion for the years 2018 and 2017, and in these important differences and trends that help the budget And the economy ... and many other things, such as paying a lot of dues and addressing the problems of stalled projects, which allowed the restoration of activities to many non-oil sectors, the return of hundreds of projects to work, the movement of billions of dollars, as well as the return of hundreds of thousands of unemployed to work. The National Investment Commission’s book No. 52 dated 20/10/2019 states that the number of projects covered by procedures and solutions for the period from 1/1/2019 to 31/8/2019 included 465 investment projects in various sectors with a financial value exceeding $ 27 billion, which contributed to operating Approximately 396 thousand workers in various governorates, either directly or indirectly.

Many other details can be included, and in order not to prolong and exhaust the reader, we believe that what was presented is sufficient to clarify the positive general trends that have begun to take their contexts in application despite the short period.

2- During the five months of 2020:

The difference between what was recycled from 2018 and what was delivered in April 2020, according to recent statements by the Minister of Finance, is approximately $ 5.4 billion ($ 6.5 billion - $ 1.1 billion). He paid off debts, and what has been activated from real sectors outside the oil cycle and the dollar cycle, can and must be invested, in order to face the many pressures and negatives that everyone agrees that she is ruling - as the Minister of Finance also asserts.

- The collapse of oil prices, which reached $ 17 during the first quarter of 2020, to now settle at about $ 40 after the cuts made by "OPEC Plus" in 2020. And the official here is a rentier economy at the expense of the real economy on the one hand, and international markets that we do not control. On the other hand, in addition to a continuous increase in expenditures, we did not find, as officials, legislators, and community culture possible practical contexts to reduce them.

Pressure due to the protests and demonstrations since October 2019, in which everyone demanded to meet their just demands, the most important of which are employment and salary improvement, etc. In addition to the losses it caused, which disrupted and threatened many interests and businesses with all the harm that accompanied them by losing opportunities, disrupting interests or destroying property and assets.

- K, - and Rona, which started with the beginning of the year 2020 and which escalated to disrupt public activities and life, including the economic On 10/10/2020, the deaths reached 9,790 deaths. And it is impossible for any government without the cooperation of the people and society to stop the brunt of the pandemic that has placed Iraq today as the most affected country in the 15th place in the world and first in the Arab world.

 

 Post Views: 179

[King Bean]

He will only be remembered for the hundreds of citizens killed, the thousands injured by Iranian thugs that he allowed free reign in October and November 2019. Then, like a coward, slinked away from his responsibility into the shadows without consequences. He should swing free.....right next to Maliki.

[horsesoldier]

4 minutes ago, King Bean said:

He will only be remembered for the hundreds of citizens killed, the thousands injured by Iranian thugs that he allowed free reign in October and November 2019. Then, like a coward, slinked away from his responsibility into the shadows without consequences. He should swing free.....right next to Maliki.

 

. . . and this can't happen soon enough 

[JonnyV]

You both got that right. He stood by and let it happen.  His lack of action caused harm to the Iraqis.  

[yota691]

Abdul Mahdi issues a clarification on the financial situation during his government

 17 hours ago

512

 

Former Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi issued today, Tuesday, a clarification about the financial situation during his government, confirming that the public debt declined from 115.2 billion dollars in 2017 to 110.4 billion dollars in 2018 to 104.4 billion dollars in 2019.

Abdul-Mahdi said in a statement that "progress" received a copy of it, “We are using the statements of the Minister of Finance recently for a number of media outlets to present some figures and facts according to their reliable sources, with the aim of surrounding bids and correcting a lot of popular false information, allowing the cooperation of everyone from the government, political and societal forces and opinion A year out of the country's economic crisis, ”adding that“ Finance Minister Ali Allawi is one of the advanced Iraqi minds and has the courage and knowledge that makes him the right man in the right place in the right circumstance. ”

Abdul-Mahdi indicated that Finance Minister Ali “Allawi conducted a series of media meetings, and was objective in his presentation and criticism of the policies pursued by successive governments and the financial crisis that the country is currently suffering from, as he referred to several things, but we will address here two main points raised by: A- Lack of liquidity Adequate when the state. B- OPEC’s decision is plus to reduce countries ’production to improve prices, which obligated Iraq to reduce its oil exports.

In his statement, Abdul Mahdi added, “First: the lack of liquidity and who bears the responsibility ?:

1- Since we canceled at the end of the fifties the last century the decision to allocate oil resources to the Reconstruction Council and gradually transfer them to finance the Iraqi budget, so that the state budget, and indeed the entire Iraqi economy, became subject to oil resources, we are responsible for any governments, culture and behavior of two years. This historical reality was submitted, despite warnings from the wise people, and despite some official attempts that were not entrenched and were quickly aborted. Thus, the country's money went into absurdities, wrong approaches, and internal and external wars.

2- After 2003, the treasury was completely empty. Rather, the external debt exceeded $ 120 billion, and the internal debt was difficult to calculate. So, the domestic debt was canceled, except for the central bank’s debt, and Iraq succeeded in the Paris Club negotiations, and the external debt was reduced at a rate close to 90%.

3- All governments have consistently relied on employment as a main means to absorb rising unemployment. Rather, education, the private sector and societal concepts have adapted to this trend, in 2004 the number of employees was close to 750,000 employees and the same was the number of retirees, and today the numbers have escalated to about 8 million employees and retirees. That is, 5 times those numbers, not to mention an uncontrolled increase in operating and consumption expenditures and allocations at the expense of developing the national economy. The average per capita salary before the change was about 2-3 dollars per month and rose in 2017 to about 663 dollars according to reports by Arab organizations, and the price of oil at that time was 20-30 dollars and the volume of exports is 1.5-2 million barrels. Nevertheless, the state did not face difficulty, as is the case now, in paying salaries, except during the period of blockade and sanctions, so it resorted to the inflationary cash issuance that led to the collapse of the dinar from 0.33 dinars / dollar to 3000 dinars / dollars. With intense fluctuation.

4- The numbers differed from the liquidity available to the current government upon receiving responsibility .. In the first statements it was said that the treasury was empty, then it was said that 700-800 million dollars ... and many things were said, less and more, while the Minister of Finance affirmed in his recent statements that the liquidity was 1.3 trillion dinars ($ 1.1 billion). It is agreed upon that there is a collapse in state resources due to the dependence of the economy and state expenditures on oil resources that collapsed with the collapse of oil prices, as well as the high expenditures due to entrenched policies that face strong resistance when seeking to address them as a historical factor, and because of the protest movement and Corona as current factors.

The former prime minister continued, “Let's take the role of the previous government in two stages:

1- During 2019, without mentioning the last 68 days of 2018:

From 2018 to the 2019 budget, he totaled 7.759 trillion dinars (6.564 billion dollars). It is true that what the current government received from the previous government in May 2020 is less than this amount, after the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2020, protests, meeting demands, etc. That is, the previous government suffered from what the current government suffers from increased expenditures and fewer imports. At the end of 2019, treasury reserves were nearly three times over the cycle from 2018 to 2019. The economy witnessed growing progress during 2019 despite the decline in oil prices from $ 65.5 per barrel on average in 2018 to $ 61.1 / barrel in 2019, a difference of $ 4.4 per barrel per day. This alone represents a decline in revenues of $ 5.584 billion based on actual oil exports, which amounted to 3,540 million / b / d in 2019, compared to 3.5 m / b / d in 2018, and oil revenues and grants increased from about $ 90 billion in 2018 to 91 billion. Dollars in 2019. Noting that the liabilities and expenditures have increased - also - significant increases due to the demands and demonstrations, especially in the last quarter of 2019 and early 2020, and because of the increase in the budget of the Popular Mobilization Forces and equating them with the rest of the forces, and the payment of part of the Kurdistan budget in proportion to Muslim oil, according to the 2019 budget law, as well as Pay off a lot of debts and dues, as discussed below. The year 2019 witnessed an advance in the per capita rate.per capita ) of gross national product, and it reached 5,841 dollars per capita in 2019, compared to 5,641 in 2018, according to the World Bank. These indicate an escalating line of progress, starting from 2018 and 2019, as the country surpassed the financial crisis of 2014-2015 and the war against ISIS, and began a phase of tangible progress and recovery.

• An increase in central bank reserves at the end of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 to $ 67.6 billion, compared to $ 64.3 billion at the end of 2018.
• Accumulating nearly one billion dollars in the Chinese / Iraqi investment fund, so the government withdrew most of it, if not all, to fill some of the budget deficit. This fund is an important opportunity to put oil in the service of reconstruction and exit from the rentier economy, which we hope will not be forfeited.
• In the 2019 and 2020 harvest, a large stock of wheat, barley, rice, vegetables and livestock is close to self-sufficiency, which saved large costs that were allocated to imports, and helped and assist Iraq today in pandemic conditions in preventing price hikes, and the availability of necessary commodities in the markets. This is one of the important breakthroughs for developing real sectors and reducing dependence on oil, and it seems that the current government is determined to maintain this trend, which is what we hope for. In addition to the availability of a large water reserve that exceeded 50 billion cubic meters of water, after investing in rains and torrents in 2019, which will help in facing water scarcity in the upcoming non-humid years.
• The electric power increased in the summer of 2019 by about 23% than it was in the summer of 2018. The cutting hours in 2019 were less than in other years. There was some decline in the summer of 2020, but there is a good trend to reduce the suffering of citizens in the summer of 2021
• An increasing dependence in 2019 on the national currency, as it increased by 8% than it was in 2018, according to the World Bank report, and we made progress in localizing salaries by more than 30% by the end of 2019, after the target was 15%, which reduces the aliens and helps spread Habit of banking, getting rid of the economics of paper currency. Dr. Allawi confirmed that the rate of Emiratization has reached 40% today, and this is in the right direction.
• The contribution of non-oil sectors increased by 4.9% of the gross national product in 2019 compared to 2018, and this alone means 11.47 billion dollars added to the national economy.
• Public debt decreased from $ 115.2 billion in 2017 to $ 110.4 billion in 2018 to $ 104.4 billion in 2019. External debt to $ 54 billion in 2019 instead of $ 59 billion and $ 69.5 billion for the years 2018 and 2017, and in these important differences and trends that help the budget and the economy ..And many other things, such as paying a lot of dues and addressing the problems of stalled projects, which allowed for the restoration of activities in many non-oil sectors, the return of hundreds of projects to work, the movement of billions of dollars, as well as the return of hundreds of thousands of unemployed to work, as the National Investment Commission book No. 52, dated 20, explains / 10/2019 that the number of projects covered by procedures and solutions for the period from 1/1/2019 to 31/8/2019 included 465 investment projects in various sectors with a financial value exceeding $ 27 billion, which contributed to employing approximately 396 thousand workers in various governorates, both Direct or indirect, in addition to re-announcing the projects originally withdrawn their licenses, amounting to 181 projects worth 21 billion dollars, and employing 386 thousand workers, so that the total number of projects that have been dealt with during the above period is 646 investment projects worth 48 billion dollars, and the employment of 782 manpower A thousand workers, all according to the authority letter above, and details can be givenMany others, and in order not to prolong and exhaust the reader, we believe that what has been presented is sufficient to clarify the general positive trends that have begun to take their contexts in application despite the short period.

2- During the five months of 2020:

The difference between what was recycled from 2018 and what was delivered in April 2020, according to recent statements by the Minister of Finance, is approximately $ 5.4 billion ($ 6.5 billion - $ 1.1 billion), and what was left under the government’s hands, but rather in the national economy’s reserves, and what was paid Of the debts, and the real sectors that have been activated outside the oil cycle and the dollar cycle, they can and must be invested, to face the many pressures and negatives that everyone agrees that they are in power - as the Minister of Finance also affirms - and here are some indications for the two:

• The collapse of oil prices, which reached $ 17 during the first quarter of 2020, to now settle at about $ 40 after the cuts made by "OPEC Plus" in 2020. The official here is a rentier economy at the expense of the real economy on the one hand, and international markets that we do not control from On the other hand, in addition to a continuous increase in expenditures, we did not find, as officials, legislators, and community culture possible practical contexts to reduce them.
• Pressure due to the protests and demonstrations since October 2019, in which everyone demanded that their just demands be met, the most important of which is employment, improving salaries, etc. In addition to the losses it caused, which disrupted and threatened many interests and businesses with all the damages that accompanied them by missing opportunities, disrupting interests or destroying property and assets.
• The Corona pandemic that began with the beginning of 2020 and has escalated to disrupt public activities and life, including the economic On 10/10/2020, the deaths reached 9,790 deaths. "It is impossible for any government without the cooperation of the people and society to stop the brunt of the pandemic that has placed Iraq today as the 15th most affected country in the world and first in the Arab world."

Abdul Mahdi referred to the OPEC agreement to reduce production, saying:

1- The decrease of one dollar in oil prices affects, negatively or positively, 0.14% of the gross national product at current export rates. Everyone knows that oil prices have continued to decline throughout the first quarter of 2020, and on April 2 it reached less than $ 17 a barrel. And many countries sold their oil at a loss to fill the reservoirs and inability to store more. In fact, this price barely covers the costs, even for countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which are known for their low extraction costs.

2- At a price of $ 17 a barrel, Iraq's resources will not be more than $ 21.9 billion annually ($ 1.825 billion per month) without counting costs, even if it exports the full amount stipulated by the budget, i.e. 3.540 million barrels per day. This is much less than the resources generated from exporting quantities after the "OPEC Plus" cuts. If we take last September, the exported quantities according to "SOMO" are 2.613 million barrels per day, with imports amounting to 3.167 billion dollars (excluding the costs as well) and at a preliminary weighted price rate of 40.407 dollars per barrel.

 3- Iraq has resisted all pressures on it to adhere to the former OPEC "quota". The Doha agreement between Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela on February 16 2016 was rejected during the talks that took place in Tehran between the Iraqi, Iranian, Venezuelan and Qatari oil ministers. Iraq clung to its position until, after a few months, it was forced to accept the reduction measure demanded by OPEC and Russia, but with the recent oil crisis in 2019-2020, other countries have complained about Iraq's position that is not committed to the agreement it pledged with "OPEC Plus", and after that The market is flooded with oil surplus. "SOMO" complained that companies and refineries contracting with Iraq are abandoning their contracts due to the decline in economic growth rates at the global level and the lack of adequate reservoirs for them, and that there are offers for prices better than those of Iraq. In the April 2020 price-setting meeting, the Oil Ministry was forced to keep pace with Saudi Arabia by reducing its prices to preserve its contracts and markets, as the problem is not a decision that Iraq takes to export whatever it wants. Markets are buyers' markets, not sellers. In the current situation, buyers find oil that is less expensive, sometimes even better. That is why we tell those who think about the quantity to think of the price as well. Things should not be simplified outside of their realistic circumstances.

4- No one prevents the government from abandoning the OPEC Plus agreement and declaring that it will return to previous export rates, that is, 3,540 for the south or 3,850 million barrels / day for the whole of Iraq. Nothing but anticipation of the collapse of prices and of holding Iraq accountable, not only internally, but also internationally. A drop of one dollar from oil prices will mean a decrease in imports at a rate of 2.6 million dollars per day, at the current rate of exports (2.6 mb). To compensate for the decline of one dollar, exports must rise by 65,000 barrels per day, assuming the price remains at around $ 40 a barrel. If the government arrives at an estimate that it can increase exports without affecting prices, it must do so. The same could happen if a foreign party capable of bearing the differences confronts the interest of Iraq.

[DoD]

Whatever happened to their hit squads that roamed the streets an took out unpopular people? You know the ones with the silencers on their guns. Surely Iraq hasn't become that civilized yet have they? A good hit squad could solve a lot Iraq's issues in just a couple of weeks under the right supervision an correct targets...just saying 

[horsesoldier]

Mahdi’s short version excuse.... “ we didn’t steal all that much, you should be grateful “