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Iraq GDP down 2.1 pct in 2015, reserves drop to $54 bln -IMF


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So whats your take on this Caz ? The People upstairs in the News section seem to think that this means they are closer to a RV.  Does that make sense to you? Now I have never bragged about being a smart man like you claim. I have always said I am just a C-10 contractor. But correct me if I'm wrong here.  if the amount of foreign reserves which back their currency has dropped does that not mean that the value of their currency may drop also.?  Please share your thoughts and opinions. Please show us how smart you are? My guess is you will not give an opinion and you will just call us names and tell what bad people we are and what huge egos we have. Prove me wrong Caz and tell us how this could in any way be construed into being a good thing.

Iraq GDP down 2.1 pct in 2015, reserves drop to $54 bln -IMF

BAGHDAD, March 29

 

Iraq's economic growth contracted by 2.1 percent in 2015 and its current account widened, depleting the major OPEC producer's foreign reserves by $13 billion to $54 billion at the end of the year, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

A statement from the IMF following a round of talks with Iraqi officials in Amman attributed the slowdown to "the conflict (with Islamic State), destruction of infrastructure and assets, disruptions in trade, and deterioration of investor confidence".

http://www.reuters.com/article/iraq-imf-idUSL5N1714XR?rpc=401

 

IMF Staff Completes Mission for a Staff-Monitored Program Review and a Stand-By Arrangement Discussion with Iraq

Press Release No. 16/142
March 29, 2016

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Christian Josz visited Amman from March 17-29, 2016 to review the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) and begin discussions on a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the Iraqi authorities.

At the end of the visit, Mr. Josz issued the following statement:

“Iraq continues to face a number of challenges. Key among those is the ongoing armed conflict with ISIS, which continues to strain the country’s resources and results in new waves of internally displaced people, now reaching over 4 million. The other key challenge is the steep fall in oil prices, causing a large external shock to the balance of payments and budget revenue, which depend predominantly on oil export receipts.

“Real GDP contracted by 2.1 percent in 2015 owing to the conflict, destruction of infrastructure and assets, disruptions in trade, and deterioration of investor confidence. The increase in oil production, which is located in areas under control of the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government, helped to mitigate the economic deterioration in the non-oil sector. The current account deficit of the balance of payment widened to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2015. As a result, foreign exchange reserves dropped by $13 billion to $54 billion at end-2015.

“Preliminary estimates indicate that the authorities continue to make progress under the SMP. Three out of the five indicative targets at end-December 2015 were met, owing to the under execution of expenditure on wages and pensions, goods and services, and transfers. The target on social spending was missed by a small margin. The target on non-accumulation of external arrears was missed due to the government’s cash constraint. One out of three structural benchmarks was met and the other two were not yet met but good progress has been made and authorities expect to meet them shortly.

“The Iraqi authorities and IMF staff have made good progress towards reaching an understanding on a program of economic and financial policies that could be supported by financing. This program would include further fiscal consolidation to bring spending into line with the lower level of oil prices and maintain debt sustainability. It would also include measures to protect the poor and public financial management reforms to strengthen fiscal transparency, improve the quality of public spending, and enhance financial sector stability. The discussions will continue during the April 2016 IMF-World Bank Spring meetings in Washington, D.C.

“During the mission the team met with the Minister of Finance Hoshyar Zebari, Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), Ali Allaq, the Financial Adviser to the Prime Minister Mudher Saleh, and officials from the ministries of finance, oil, planning, electricity, the CBI, and representatives from state-owned banks and the Iraq Business Council. The team would like to thank the Iraqi authorities for their cooperation and the open and productive discussions.”

 

IMF COMMUNICATIONS DEPARTMENT

Media Relations
E-mail: media@imf.org
Phone: 202-623-7100
Edited by SocalDinar
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I thought the IMF team was scheduled to report every quarter in 2016!!! So this is just the first.  They will not get any more loans unless they continue to the monitoring.

The CBI has been propping up the dinar for a long time .. It really should be devaluing the instead of throwing in the reserves but that would destabilize the economy and would not look good for the new government.  The harsh new tax rate if they can be collected would help cover the deficit.

Don't expect any words of wisdom from Caz. He/she admits to not knowing how the RV will be funded.   

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This report quotes the Exchange reserves(CBI) at $54Bn... But where is the MOF reserves??? Are there any or have they actually spent it all? The CBI is NOT supposed to be making loans to the government But I think that they have been assuming the funding of government projects and that is where the money has gone .  Not fiscally correct.

I wonder if a new CBI governor is to be one of Abadi's  new technocrats?

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This is just another FACT about the fiscal jeopardy  that the CBI is in.  Of course none of this will make any difference to the true believer in the big RV.  Not even six years of no RV despite millions of "pro-rv" guru postings have made a dent in the true believers.  They will cling to the hope of becoming a millionaire until the end of time.  But to the 75% of the dinar community  that can actually re-evaluate their investment strategies, it might.  So why don't I sell off my 1.5 mil?  Maybe I have already.  Caz should know.  Remember she promised to buy my remaining dinar for $900 per mil.  Thanks again sweetie.

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History of edits:: 03/26/2016 16:09 • 530 visits readable
World Bank President of the Parliament: 200 billion dollars of Iraq's gross domestic product annually
[Oan- Baghdad] 
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim announced that the gross domestic product of Iraq has a $ 200 billion annually.
Young said Kim during his speech hosted in the parliament session today in the presence of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the President of the Islamic Development Bank Ahmed Mohamed Ali said in a statement to inform the parliament, "said Iraq, which has a total domestic product of about US $ 200 billion a year, represents one of the largest economies in the Middle East, even after years of conflict, "followed ..:lmao:
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So.........what's the point being made here?   We know the reserves are way down, we know the IMF has extended "life ring " loans to Baghdad, we know the market value of the dinar is in the mid 1200's, and we know the CBI officially inflated the dinar peg to 1182 from 1166.  That's the wrong way, folks.  And we know the M2 is around 85 TRILLION dinar.  And please people, when you read the CBI charts, please remember that the numbers  listed in millions, such as out of country dinars at 35 million, have a  multiplier  is in parentheses  (millions).  That means you have to  multiply the number given by a factor of 1,000,000.  That gives you TRILLIONS.  Iraq has some 85 TRILLION dinar in all accountable forms, out there.  And every one carries the same value.  Any revalue, devalue or reinstatement of the dinar affects all 85 TRILLION dinars exactly the same.  That's the facts, folks.

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  The Iraqi treasury is bleeding dollars. Oil revenue is less than $3Bn and Expenses are $4.5 Bn. Maybe more as we dont know how much they are spending . for the war.  Even if oil revenues were to double it would still be a barely break-even situation.  dont expect that to happen this year.  

They are looking for an $8-10Bn loan, just to get through this year. A positive RV  would be the same as GIVING MONEY AWAY!!! How could they justify a loan if they were to do that???   It is not logical.

If the increased tariffs  and taxes dont kick in ( difficult with all the corruption )  The only way to share the pain would be a gradual increase in the exchange rate. Of coures that would mean they would need to print more dinar which is an expense the CBI does not want to bare.  I would look for the 100K dinar note as an alternative.  

b

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I heard on the radio this AM.... Venezuela , another oil economy gone bust . With fewer dollars the governments welfare/subsidy program has had to remove some non essential items from the list of items available . Noteably hand soaps and PAMPERS!  Resulting in the revival of  diaper services in the larger cities.

 

  

Edited by rockfl9
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I know that everyone is being negative today or as y'all call it realistic , But an RV of 8.5*10 /13 at 10 cents USD could easily be paid off in a few years. That"s what I believe ! That's what Yota was trying to show you with the article presented. Go DV ! Go RV ! 

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On ‎3‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 5:42 PM, Antietam said:

This is just another FACT about the fiscal jeopardy  that the CBI is in.  Of course none of this will make any difference to the true believer in the big RV.  Not even six years of no RV despite millions of "pro-rv" guru postings have made a dent in the true believers.  They will cling to the hope of becoming a millionaire until the end of time.  But to the 75% of the dinar community  that can actually re-evaluate their investment strategies, it might.  So why don't I sell off my 1.5 mil?  Maybe I have already.  Caz should know.  Remember she promised to buy my remaining dinar for $900 per mil.  Thanks again sweetie.

Listen O self proclaimed family Scammer, I said I would be happy to buy your remaining (if u really are vested) Dinar.............................at a price of MY choosing. It's a buyers market................I thought someone with your intellect (minimum as it is) would know this. Now of course this a FACT that ole Auntyem & Toto seem unable to comprehend.  

Edited by caz1104
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18 hours ago, Texstorm said:

I know that everyone is being negative today or as y'all call it realistic , But an RV of 8.5*10 /13 at 10 cents USD could easily be paid off in a few years. That"s what I believe ! That's what Yota was trying to show you with the article presented. Go DV ! Go RV ! 

Good Morning Texstorm.

Although Moon is correct that this is a large GDP for the region he fails to say that their GDP per Capita is lower than others in the area.

 

Iraqs GDP per capita is approx $6,862

Kuwaits is $52,197

Saudi's     $25,961

Oman       $21,929

Turkey      $10,971

Israel        $36,051

They do beat these countries

Syria           $2,065

Iran            $4,763

Jordan        $5,214

 

Not sure what you mean that they could pay off a 10 cent RV with these GDP numbers. I could be wrong but would not a 10 cent RV cost the Central Bank approx 7 Trillion USD

To put that in perspective $7 Trillion USD  would cover their current Entire Budget numbers for approx 70 years.

I'm not trying to be negative here. I just don't understand how they could pay this off in short order. And thats the million dinar question. How could they do it?

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I don't think the $200Bn GDP is current data. We know oil is more than 90% of Iraq GDP , 3M bpd at $30 per bbl is less than $40Bn per year.  Where would the money come from should be the first question.  Also it cant be just paid off, It would be an instantaneous hit to the CBI.

Your GDP per capital may also be old.   With about 16M adult citizens would come to about $124M in GDP. 

RVers only look at the SELL side of the equation and don't see that there is NOONE  that will PAY 10 cents for a dinar.

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The CBI simply cannot redeem 35 Trillion out of country dinar at any revalue amount.  They cannot do this, and they will not do this.  I think the CBI is quite willing, however, to maintain the peg at or near 1182 for as long as possible.  It maintains some regularity in the marketplace and it keeps the people from rioting.  Maintaining a healthy dose of dollars in the hands of iraqis is also calming.  I am afraid that the majority of out of country dinar holders will see Jesus face to face way before there is any kind  of RV.  The dinar "speculation craze" of 2011 will go down in history as a near perfect storm of intriguing theory, mixed with small doses of real monetary facts, and then liberally coated, boxed and sold to a public that had no earthly idea how the world financial system actually works. I was one of those.  I am unusual in the fact that I admit it.  Remember the old saying, "the emperor wears no clothes".  It applies to us dinar speculators.

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STD,

I just read ur rant up above, for someone who say's he's above all that and won't engage me................................U sure seem to do it a lot. And please don't use the excuse that it wasn't you but  something someone else wrote...................and you just COPIED & Paste it. My opinion is that numbers are just numbers to those in power. Do you or anyone else think for one moment this has anything to do with affordability? Or whether a possible RV has any bearing on fiscal policy? Power & Greed are the only two things that come into play,and that's Universal. 

Edited by caz1104
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It is about affordability.  Power and Greed... HA HA   So what you are saying is that its a global monetary conspiracy??  This from a man that claims to manage 1000 people.

Where down at the Chocolate factory

Typical short mans syndrome 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Where do u get "global monetary conspiracy" out of what I said? What a clown Arse...................evidently uve been out in the sun waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too long. Maybe just maybe it's you that has no clue as how governments/countries work when it comes to fiscal policy. But as usual u seem that to think YOU are the only one with any answer.........Thanks Donald Trump!  Please re-read then if possible put forth a coherent non-cut/pasted response.

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STD,

When has any country ever cared about affordability. And since when did ANY country run like a business (thus your comment about me managing people) - You sure u don't live on fantasy island?

Edited by caz1104
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There goes the Bunny.......  

 

 

Government withdraws $ 10 billion from the reserves of the Central Bank and the experts upheld as an economic catastrophe


04/13/2016

Government withdraws $ 10 billion from the reserves of the Central Bank and the experts upheld as an economic catastrophe

 

 

BAGHDAD / JD / .. in light of the lack of financial state revenues and increase the annual budget deficit as a result of lower oil prices and the absence of the role of the productive sectors of the federal government is seeking to find solutions to the vessels out of the financial crisis and filling state requirements of salaries and other things necessary.
He revealed an official source at the central bank for the government to withdraw the $ 10 billion of central bank reserves during the last period.
The source, who requested anonymity, told / KD / The cash reserves of the Central Bank continues to drop as a result of the central bank sold large amounts of dollar in its daily auction as well as the government to withdraw the money from the reserve to meet the financial requirements of the state.
For his part, the economic expert Abdul Hassan Shammari warned to withdraw more than half of the current monetary reserves during the current year, adding that the government withdraw 10 billion during the previous period would make it dependent on the reserve in the coming period and thus will lead to a decrease in size of the monetary reserves of hard currency and this It is considered an economic catastrophe.
Al-Shammari told / KD / All the indicators show that oil prices will remain low this year, and Iraq now sells its oil of $ 30 to $ 32 per barrel per day which means that the financial crisis will continue to exist, how the government will manage matters of state financial Vstlja to reserves of the Central Bank, which expected to pull up reservists to half the size of current cash reserves.
He called the economic expert on the government to not to think about withdrawing monetary reserves because it is considered a safe haven of the national currency Manipulation by means deterioration of the Iraqi dinar.
As a member of the Finance Committee MP Ahmed Sarhan he warned of manipulation Balaanaat cash foreign currency, calling Goh to asylum for other sources of funding for non-monetary reserves.
Said Ahmed told / KD / The withdrawal of funds from the reserve in the country will make a complete financial bankruptcy because the strength of the economy and the Iraqi dinar lies in the size of this reserve in addition to that he considered the sovereign credit of the state.
And was a member of the economic and investment commission in Parliament MP Ahmed Salim revealed earlier for the government resorted to the use of cash reserves at the Central Bank in order to bridge the employees' salaries.
The International Monetary Fund warned earlier in decreasing the size of the cash reserve to less than $ 52 billion because of the withdrawal of government funds from the state to meet the requirements. / End / 8 /

 

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NEWSFLASH!!!!!

The Sky fell today.

If ever there was a "War of the Worlds" type of scenario...........................folks it's right here in da tank. If ya ain't scared enough yet..................hang tight...................the 3 Amigos & Lap dog will surely do their collective best to ensure you soon will be.

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Yep Caz, this is serious for dinar investors. Let's see now the CBI gave up $10M last year right under your nose. maybe will have to kick in another $15M this year. That leaves less than $40M to cover existing dinar. The BOTTOM fell out.

The peg really isn't 1182 anymore but posting the real rate admits the economic failure...

 

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We're all DOOMED!!!! (well those that are vested-not the trolls).........................Oh the Calamity!................the Horror!......................Does anyone know OW's script writers? Oh wait we got Rockfish right here at DV. A self proclaimed writer of books & scripts. I'm sure he can come up with a great DoomsDay Script that'll scare the living bejesus out of all. LOL LOL LOL 

Or I'm sure Cut & Paste King can find a horror story he can copy and bring it over.

Or AuntyEm & Toto can tell everyone how they got lost going to see the Wizard and the tragic events that occurred during said travels.

WE're DOOMED!!!!! DOOMED I SAY!!!!

 

 

Edited by caz1104
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Same ole Caz. Protector  of the myth...  Never really says something positive just degrading remarks about any who will comment on the bad news regarding the IQD . The sell price has fallen below $700 .  The GOI has raided the CBI reserves.  Oh, nothing... 

Yes there is a dooms day script , always has been .  The latest news has only added to it. But the worse things get the less interesting this story has become... The potential mystery value has faded.  The outcome is becoming so obvious that it will become so dull... No one will buy it.

 

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"never really says something positive"..........LOL LOL.  Really someone here in Da Tank saying others aren't saying anything positive!!!!!!! This is area of despair................and you talk of "positive"......................since when did that word, though, or belief ever enter a LOPsters sub-conscious?  LOL you guys kill me with your comedy-priceless 

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