Oil prices may jump to $ 60 and atomic energy signals recovery on demand
Shafak News / Energy expert Furat Al-Mousawi expected, on Tuesday, that the prices of a barrel of oil will reach $ 60 at the end of this year.
"The improvement and stability of oil prices came as a result of the return of industrial life in China and the Asian countries and the agreement of the OPEC group," Moussawi told Shafaq News, noting that "next July will see an increase in demand for oil by countries and international companies."
He added that "the statements of most industrialized countries about the necessity of returning to normalizing their lives due to the lack of an effective vaccine for the Corona virus and the economic life of these countries gradually contributed also to high prices and may stabilize between 40-50 dollars."
Moussawi said, "It is expected that the price of a barrel of oil will reach 60 dollars at the end of this year, but this depends on the political and economic variables of the world."
It is noteworthy that the prices of a barrel of oil have decreased since the outbreak of the Corona virus, which led to fears of the impact of the decline and lack of revenue on the budget of Iraq for the current year 2020 and was affected by the operational budget and the salaries of government employees and retirees.
As a result, the Parliamentary Finance Committee estimated the size of the deficit in the country's general budget for the current year at "69" trillion Iraqi dinars, describing it as an "unprecedented" deficit.
And revealed the Parliamentary Finance Committee, in the middle of last May, the loss of Iraq one billion and 350 million dollars for every dollar of low oil prices, while stressing its need for external loans to fill the reservation in the public budget.
Committee member Jamal Kuger told Shafaq News that "the oil prices in the general budget of the Iraqi state were calculated at" $ 56 ", but that some of the lower prices may be calculated as" $ 30 "per barrel in the 2020 budget."
International Energy: The aviation crisis keeps oil demand below levels
For its part, the International Energy Agency revealed on Tuesday that oil demand is recovering from the largest decline in history in 2020, but the decline in the aviation sector due to fears of the Corona virus means that the world will not return to pre-pandemic demand levels before 2022.
The Energy Agency said in its monthly report, “Our first forecasts for the entire year 2021 show demand growth of 5.7 million barrels per day, which means, at a level of 97.4 million barrels per day, that it will be below the 2019 level by 2.4 million barrels per day.”
The Paris-based agency said, "The decline in deliveries of jet fuel and kerosene will affect the total demand for oil until 2022..and at least the aviation sector is facing an existential crisis." Virus containment measures are still 70 percent lower than 2019 levels.
The Energy Agency raised its forecast for oil demand in 2020 by about 500 thousand barrels per day due to stronger Asian imports than expected; "China's strong exit from public shutdowns brought demand back in April to levels almost last year," she said. We also witnessed a strong recovery in India in May, although demand is still far below last year’s levels. ”
The agency pointed to a drop in global oil supplies by 11.8 million barrels per day in May, and said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, within the group known as OPEC +, had cut production by 9.4 million barrels per day. "If the recent trends in production continue and demand recovers, the market will stand on a more stable basis by the end of the second half of the year," she added.
"But we should not underestimate the enormous uncertainties," she added.
The production of countries that did not participate in the agreement fell 4.5 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, according to the agency, which indicated that the production of the United States will decrease 900 thousand barrels per day this year and 300 thousand barrels per day next year unless prices rise to encourage new investments in shale oil.