Summary of Date / Rate Predictions

[Markinsa]

Please provide the references for when Adam actually gave a specific date for an RV. Thanks.

-

[sheik]

What award do you give the hitter for batting .000 ? Everyone has struck out every time

Up at bat .

[ems]

General Trends with Date Predictions:

Guru # of Date Predictions Summary of Predictions

Adam Montana 4 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

Good job Mr. T. Quite impressive and it looks labor intensive.

The only thing that doesn't seem to fit is your data on Mr. Montana's prediction date. On 2 or 3 occassions he has stated he thinks it will happen by Thanksgiving. I may be wrong, but I don't recall him making end of week predictions.

On 10/26/11, he stated: "I am still confident that within the next month - aka before Thanksgiving - we will see a BIG event, that could and should lead right into a rate change for the Iraqi Dinar."

Read more:

[toric23]

I agree with you ems... I recall Adam saying b4 Thanksgiving would be great for all of us, but I don't think he actually put it out there as "the date"

[Cam1]

Seeing proof of the ridiculous claims Gurus have made is eye opening. Cant see why anyone would follow these guys! Its part of the reason I stopped reading certain sections if this site.

Call me crazy but I'm hoping for an rv! Who cares what crazy rates okie promised? Why take the time to bring that here? I don't get it...

It seems like people get bored waiting and use the time to post all sorts of craziness on the forum.

AM, I patiently wait for THE email. Our troops have to leave by Dec 31st. And Iraq has to fend for itself. SOMETHING has to give. Go rv.

[sourpuss]

Mr T- thanks for the awesome post. well done...that took quite some time. I appreciate your efforts:) Thanks, Joy

[Captjohn]

Nice analysis. Pretty clear that all these self-proclaimed gurus are guessing. The real truth is that none of them has ANY IDEA what is going on. Make your own guess; you will probably be as accurate/inaccurate as they are.

[sheepdog]

Mr T: I like your analysis. Thank you for taking the time to do this. Your input keeps this dinar investment honest and real. Hope you keep posting.

[Canuklady]

Wow Mr.T! Very impressive post. Thanks for your hard work and analysis. Plus one to you.

On a different note, there was no text sent to Penelope Cruz or Angelina Jolie announcing an RV. Time to bring in the big guns. Anyone feeling a little Meryl? She has not one, but two Oscars. Let's get er done Meryl! Sourpuss, Halloween's avatar is just for you! Lol! BJ, no worries, your avatar will show up next week! Thanks again for your post Mr. T!

Edited October 29, 2011 by Canuklady

[gr8cooker142]

you spent a lot of time on this post , good job!!

[Taz32809]

I got dizzy just looking at it. My a.d.d.would never allow me to compile.... ooh a quarter!

[Mr T]

Good job Mr. T. Quite impressive and it looks labor intensive.

The only thing that doesn't seem to fit is your data on Mr. Montana's prediction date. On 2 or 3 occassions he has stated he thinks it will happen by Thanksgiving. I may be wrong, but I don't recall him making end of week predictions.

On 10/26/11, he stated: "I am still confident that within the next month - aka before Thanksgiving - we will see a BIG event, that could and should lead right into a rate change for the Iraqi Dinar."

Read more:

ems, Nice catch on Adam Montana I'd give you a plus if I could figure out how... I apologize to Adam Montana for the misrepresentation. I was in a flurry of copy and paste activity and inadvertently copied over my general trend with Adam's prediction. He has stated on 3 occassions that he expects RV to happen by Thanksgiving or by the end of the calendar year. Here is an update to the original post with corrections.

Date & Rate Predictions for the past 5 weeks:

I have reviewed several online forums / chat rooms related to the IQD and have seen many date and rate predictions. I have also seen many statements that either support or reject these predictions. I have also noticed the predictions have become more aggressive over time and the opposition has become more aggressive as well. Since these predictions are most frequently placed in the “Rumors” forums, I don’t place a lot of weight on them, however, I wanted to see if there were any common themes or trends that stood out. A big part of my day-time job is related to statistical analysis and finding “the story” in a given dataset. There is a lot of data here to analyze and although I could have gone further back in history, I felt that it would just lead to diminishing returns and wanted to share what I have found with everyone. Feel free to repost this on your own preferred forum (in the rumors section please, since analysis of rumors should by definition be a rumor itself) so that others may benefit from my efforts. If you want to flag me or give me a negative, knock yourself out…. I have only been invested in the IQD for about 4 months (yes, a relative newbie to these sites), but I have learned a great deal about currency speculation (mostly from the same gurus that make these predictions. I am not a guru, I am an analyst. I have decided to continue reading the rumors for entertainment and the occasional nugget of worthwhile information and watch the news sections with more interest. I also track the CBI, Forex, and a couple of currency rate sites so that I have a real-time feed of actual rate information.

So here is a list (not comprehensive by any stretch of the imagination) of the rates and dates predicted by several gurus, grouped by the guru in chronological order. Down below I have summarized my key take-aways from this data. I also summarized the rate prediction ranges that are shown here as well as the frequency that each guru made a rate prediction. Enjoy!

Day of Week Date Predicted RV Date Predicted RV Rate Guru

(No later than)

Wednesday 10/5/2011 12/31/2011 8Ball

Monday 10/17/2011 11/20/2011 8Ball

Wednesday 9/21/2011 0.1 Adam Montana

Wednesday 10/5/2011 11/24/2011 Adam Montana

Wednesday 10/12/2011 12/31/2011 Adam Montana

Wednesday 10/19/2011 11/30/2011 0.1 Adam Montana

Wednesday 9/21/2011 Over 3.00 Bear5642

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/30/2011 Bear5642

Monday 10/3/2011 11/24/2011 Bear5642

Wednesday 10/5/2011 11/4/2011 Bear5642

Thursday 10/6/2011 11/31/2011 Less than 4.00 Bear5642

Friday 10/7/2011 11/31/2011 Bear5642

Tuesday 10/11/2011 11/3/2011 Bear5642

Wednesday 10/12/2011 11/3/2011 3.62 Bear5642

Saturday 10/15/2011 11/30/2011 Bear5642

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/27/2011 3.22 Bear5642

Friday 10/21/2011 11/7/2011 Bear5642

Sunday 10/23/2011 11/3/2011 Bear5642

Monday 10/24/2011 11/5/2011 Bear5642

Monday 9/26/2011 9/29/2011 BGG

Thursday 9/29/2011 10/29/2011 BGG

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/25/2011 BGG

Sunday 9/25/2011 9/28/2011 Bluwolf

Sunday 10/16/2011 10/23/2011 Bluwolf

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/26/2011 Bluwolf

Friday 10/21/2011 1/1/2012 -- Breitling

Sunday 10/23/2011 12/31/2011 0.86 Breitling

Saturday 10/1/2011 1.00 Brietling

Wednesday 9/21/2011 9/23/2011 Bulldog75

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/29/2011 Bulldog75

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/29/2011 Bulldog75

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/28/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 9/29/2011 10/1/2011 Bulldog75

Friday 9/30/2011 10/1/2011 Bulldog75

Saturday 10/1/2011 10/2/2011 Bulldog75

Monday 10/3/2011 10/8/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/6/2011 10/6/2011 Bulldog75

Saturday 10/8/2011 Over 4.40 Bulldog75

Monday 10/10/2011 Over 4.40 Bulldog75

Tuesday 10/11/2011 10/14/2011 Bulldog75

Tuesday 10/11/2011 10/14/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/15/2011 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/31/2011 Bulldog75

Friday 10/21/2011 10/26/2011 Bulldog75

Saturday 10/22/2011 10/29/2011 Bulldog75

Wednesday 10/26/2011 11/4/2011 3.00 Bulldog75

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/16/2011 BWM

Sunday 10/23/2011 10/29/2011 BWM

Monday 10/24/2011 10/31/2011 BWM

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/29/2011 BWM

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/29/2011 zzzzzzzzz

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/30/2011 zzzzzzzzz

Friday 9/30/2011 10/5/2011 zzzzzzzzz

Saturday 10/1/2011 10/5/2011 3.50 to 4.00 zzzzzzzzz

Friday 10/7/2011 Over 3.22 zzzzzzzzz

Wednesday 10/26/2011 10/31/2011 3.22 zzzzzzzzz

Friday 9/23/2011 3.63 Eagle Has Landed

Tuesday 9/27/2011 12/31/2011 Frank26

Thursday 10/20/2011 11/24/2011 1.00 Frank26

Thursday 9/22/2011 9/30/2011 Freeway Bill

Sunday 9/25/2011 9/26/2011 Freeway Bill

Wednesday 9/28/2011 Over 1.00 Freeway Bill

Friday 9/30/2011 8.47 Freeway Bill

Monday 10/3/2011 11/17/2011 Freeway Bill

Sunday 10/9/2011 10/14/2011 8.47 Freeway Bill

Tuesday 10/11/2011 10/13/2011 Over 3.00 Freeway Bill

Monday 10/17/2011 10/31/2011 Freeway Bill

Saturday 10/22/2011 10/26/2011 Freeway Bill

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/25/2011 3.00 Freeway Bill

Monday 10/3/2011 10/6/2011 Ghost

Thursday 10/27/2011 10/27/2011 Ghost

Friday 10/7/2011 10/7/2011 5.77 Jonnywg

Saturday 10/8/2011 10/9/2011 5.77 Jonnywg

Sunday 10/9/2011 5.77 Jonnywg

Monday 10/10/2011 Probably has happened Jonnywg

Tuesday 10/11/2011 5.96 (not an official rate) Jonnywg

Wednesday 10/12/2011 10/14/2011 Jonnywg

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/14/2011 1.00 to 8.00 Jonnywg

Friday 10/14/2011 10/14/2011 Jonnywg

Tuesday 10/18/2011 10/20/2011 Jonnywg

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/19/2011 Jonnywg

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/22/2011 Jonnywg

Friday 10/21/2011 10/22/2011 -- Jonnywg

Saturday 10/22/2011 10/22/2011 2.00 Jonnywg

Monday 10/24/2011 10/29/2011 Jonnywg

Thursday 10/27/2011 10/27/2011 Jonnywg

Tuesday 9/27/2011 12/31/2011 Kaperoni

Sunday 10/23/2011 12/31/2011 Kaperoni

Tuesday 10/25/2011 12/31/2011 0.86 Kaperoni

Sunday 9/25/2011 1.00 Med

Wednesday 9/28/2011 1.00 Med

Thursday 9/29/2011 over 3.00 Med

Tuesday 10/4/2011 11/30/2011 Med

Tuesday 10/11/2011 12/31/2011 1.00 Med

Tuesday 10/18/2011 11/24/2011 Med

Friday 10/21/2011 1.00 Med

Wednesday 9/21/2011 9/29/2011 OOM

Monday 9/26/2011 9/29/2011 OOM

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/29/2011 OOM

Thursday 9/29/2011 10/1/2011 OOM

Friday 9/30/2011 10/1/2011 OOM

Tuesday 10/4/2011 3.40 OOM

Tuesday 10/11/2011 11/3/2011 OOM

Thursday 10/13/2011 10/31/2011 OOM

Saturday 10/15/2011 10/31/2011 3.43 OOM

Monday 10/17/2011 10/31/2011 OOM

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/23/2011 OOM

Saturday 10/22/2011 11/3/2011 OOM

Monday 10/24/2011 11/5/2011 OOM

Thursday 9/22/2011 9/25/2011 1.00 Phoenix333

Monday 9/26/2011 10/1/2011 Phoenix333

Wednesday 9/28/2011 10/1/2011 Phoenix333

Wednesday 10/19/2011 10/20/2011 Phoenix333

Wednesday 9/21/2011 10/1/2011 Poppy2

Wednesday 10/12/2011 Done on 6/30/2011 Poppy3

Saturday 10/15/2011 Done on 6/30/2011 Poppy3

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/28/2011 Poppy3

Sunday 10/9/2011 10/16/2011 High Purplehelmet300

Monday 10/24/2011 10/29/2011 Purplehelmet300

Sunday 10/2/2011 3.45 Randy Koonce

Thursday 10/27/2011 12/31/2011 Randy Koonce

Monday 10/3/2011 3.40 Ray

Thursday 9/22/2011 9/23/2011 3.50 - 4.40 ScottiG

Sunday 9/25/2011 Probably has happened ScottiG

Monday 9/26/2011 3.50 - 4.40 ScottiG

Friday 9/30/2011 10/2/2011 3.60 - 4.50 ScottiG

Monday 10/3/2011 10/8/2011 ~3.00 ScottiG

Sunday 10/9/2011 10/31/2011 Low rate to High Rate ScottiG

Friday 10/14/2011 12/3/2011 Low rate to High Rate ScottiG

Monday 10/24/2011 11/5/2011 ScottiG

Tuesday 10/4/2011 12/4/2011 Steve1

Wednesday 10/5/2011 3.50 to 4.50 Studley

Friday 9/30/2011 10/8/2011 8.00 TerryK

Saturday 10/8/2011 5.67 to 8.16 TerryK

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/23/2011 TerryK

Thursday 10/27/2011 10/27/2011 3.43 TerryK

Thursday 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 8.47 Tmoney

Wednesday 9/21/2011 10/1/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 9/23/2011 9/26/2011 TonyTNT

Saturday 9/24/2011 9/26/2011 TonyTNT

Sunday 9/25/2011 9/26/2011 TonyTNT

Monday 9/26/2011 10/1/2011 TonyTNT

Tuesday 9/27/2011 9/30/2011 TonyTNT

Wednesday 9/28/2011 9/30/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 9/30/2011 10/1/2011 TonyTNT

Sunday 10/2/2011 10/3/2011 TonyTNT

Monday 10/3/2011 10/5/2011 3.65 to 8.00 TonyTNT

Wednesday 10/5/2011 10/18/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 10/7/2011 10/8/2011 over 3.00 TonyTNT

Monday 10/10/2011 11/9/2011 TonyTNT

Tuesday 10/11/2011 1.00 to 5.00 increasing to 8.00 TonyTNT

Monday 10/17/2011 11/3/2011 1 to 8.47 TonyTNT

Thursday 10/20/2011 10/25/2011 TonyTNT

Friday 10/21/2011 10/23/2011 TonyTNT

Tuesday 10/25/2011 10/29/2011 TonyTNT

General Trends with Date Predictions:

Guru # of Date Predictions Summary of Predictions

TonyTNT 16 Generally within days, lately moved to weeks

Bulldog75 15 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction each week

Jonnywg 12 Within 48 hours or already happened

Bear5642 11 Thought end of Sept. now consistently end of Oct / early Nov

OOM 11 Generally predicts end of current month / early next month

Freeway Bill 8 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

ScottiG 7 Already happened at end of Sept, now into December

Med 6 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

zzzzzzzzz 5 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

Adam Montana 4 Thanksgiving to end of calendar year (Corrected)

Phoenix333 4 Generally an End of Week RV Prediction

BGG 3 Predicts end of month

Poppy3 4 End of month predictions or already done

TerryK 3 End of week

8Ball 2 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

Bluwolf 2 Predicts by end of the week

Breitling 2 End of year

Frank26 2 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

Ghost 1 Days away

Kaperoni 1 End of year

Purplehelmet300 1 End of week

Steve1 1 Thanksgiving to End of year predictions

Tmoney 1 Tomorrow

Prediction Day of Week Summary:

Day of Prediction # of Predictions among all gurus

Monday 19

Tuesday 19

Wednesday 28

Thursday 21

Friday 18

Saturday 10

Sunday 12

I don’t see any huge trend here other than a spike mid-week (Wed, Th.) and decline on the weekend. Sort of coincides with the “must RV on Tues., Wed., Thurs. “ school of thought…

GURU RATE PREDICTION RANGES

Guru Times a Rate Was Predicted Range (USD / IQD)

Adam Montana 2 0.10

Bear5642 4 3.00 - 4.00

Brietling 2 0.86 - 1.00

Bulldog75 3 3.00 - 4.00

zzzzzzzzz 3 3.22 - 4.00

Eagle Has Landed 1 3.63

Frank 1 1.00

Freeway Bill 5 1.00 - 8.47

Jonnywg 6 1.00 - 8.00

Kaperoni 1 0.86

Med 4 1.00 - over 3.00

OOM 2 3.43

Phoenix333 1 1.00

Purplehelmet300 1 High

Randy Koonce 1 3.45

Ray 1 3.40

ScottiG 6 3.00 - 4.50

Studley 1 3.50 - 4.50

TerryK 3 3.43 - 8.16

Tmoney 1 8.47

TonyTNT 4 1.00 - 8.00

Draw your own conclusion about the rate predictions. I think you will probably find a range and corresponding guru that you personally are aligned with. That is just human nature, but my take-away is that there are a couple of realists shown here, they don’t predict rates often and have at least put some analysis behind their prediction. Some are all over the place and typically don’t have any supporting data to back their prediction up, and others just bump what they hear from someone they are aligned with and put it in their own words.

In summary, there are a couple of gurus that are so vague with their predictions (dates and / or rates) that I couldn’t pin it down, so I did not include them here. If date ranges were predicted, I only included the date that was the furthest into the future to keep this as conservative as I could for the guru. Needless to say, most of the gurus have been consistently incorrect with their date predictions (some of the predictions are yet to occur, so we’ll see how those turn out) and only time will tell if any of the rate predictions are accurate. While I hope for the $3 - $5 rate range, I am prepared for break-even. While I hope that the RV has already happened (as a couple of gurus have stated), I am prepared for months or even years to happen. Hang in there everyone, remember this is only money. Don’t sweat the small stuff, and believe me this is the small stuff in life. Don’t forget to live your life to its fullest while you wait for the RV.

Seeing proof of the ridiculous claims Gurus have made is eye opening. Cant see why anyone would follow these guys! Its part of the reason I stopped reading certain sections if this site.

Call me crazy but I'm hoping for an rv! Who cares what crazy rates okie promised? Why take the time to bring that here? I don't get it...

It seems like people get bored waiting and use the time to post all sorts of craziness on the forum.

AM, I patiently wait for THE email. Our troops have to leave by Dec 31st. And Iraq has to fend for itself. SOMETHING has to give. Go rv.

Thanks for the post Cam1, I included okie (and many other "gurus") so that everyone has some information about what he has predicted historically so that people can draw their own conclusions about his accuracy. If a newbie comes on board and sees a post by any of the gurus, they will have a frame of reference on their history. Rather than being influenced by a single post, this provides a longer term view with multiple data points so put things in perspective. Nothing is more powerful than information, and my objective was to compile some basic stats on the gurus so everyone is better equipped to make an intelligent decision on whether to believe or not.

[Mr T]

Please provide the references for when Adam actually gave a specific date for an RV. Thanks.

-

Markinsa,

Here are the Adam Montana quotes I pulled the information from.

10-19-2011 Guru Adam Montana today is a great day to be a dinar investor! I am VERY positive on this right now. I have people emailing and calling me, people I work with every week and I RESPECT their opinions telling me that YES, Iraq can sustain an RV. we are close to seeing the HCL completely in effect and the rate should be at least double what I expect. you know my opinion is that the Dinar SHOULD come out at closer to a Dime. I'm excited right now...I think it's a good day to be a dinar investor. I'm excited to see what the next couple days and weeks bring. I'll be surprised if it "pops" in October, but I will NOT be surprised to see it pop in November!

Read more: http://www.another site.com/#ixzz1cDzyTW9g

10-12-2011 Guru Adam Montana Allawi is not stepping down from the government, he will still be a part of this investment, this is a GOOD development. in his own words, he is stepping away "for the good of Iraq". this is AWESOME, because for a very long time we have seen delay after delay over the political struggle between the Sunnis (Allawi's supporters) and the rest of the country. with Allawi officially stating that he is "renouncing" the current government, but at the same time officially "stepping back" from the political tug-of-war...this gives us an opening to actually RESOLVE and MOVE FORWARD. in my opinion, this is great for the value of dinar and puts us on track for a 2011 RV. I think it could happen by Thanksgiving but I feel even more confident that we should see it by the end of the year.

Read more: http://www.another site.com/#ixzz1cE0hauWy

10-5-2011 Guru Adam Montana I think inflation is our FRIEND right now! if inflation is allowed to get out of control, then the value of the Dinar will also get out of control, the only way to raise the value is to completely control it so with inflation threatening, I think they have more reason than ever to act quickly this is one of the main reasons I believe we should see the value raise soon, as in pre-Thanksgiving .

Read more: http://www.another site.com/#ixzz1cE1NoLSS

[deniscanada]

where is okie and zzzzzzzzz and their daily predictions /bs?

[Mr T]

where is okie and zzzzzzzzz and their daily predictions /bs?

Okie is included in the OOM data. I thought they were one and the same.

ZZZZZZZ is in there as well.

I didn't include all gurus, that is a task I don't want to take on. I think I captured most of the key gurus, but some may be missing.

Thanks to everyone that responded, I appreciate the thanks and constructive feedback as well. This is a pretty smart group of people and very little gets by the group. I hope this helps some of the newbies out there to better understand what they are receiving as "intel" or rate / date predictions.

Have a great week everyone. Don't forget to live your life to the fullest while you wait for your dreams to come true. You'll never get that time back no matter what the rate or date of RV it.

Mr. T

[TX Greyhound]

Mr T, thank you for adding perspective to the constant barage of predictions on the RV. I especially like that you show a willingness to take criticism and fix the errors or add insight for the people that have read the post. It was a bit lengthy, but well worth the read. I thought your comments were insightful and even though you could have easily bashed some of these "gurus" with your data, you chose to just state facts and added your thoughts to help simplify the details. It's great to have some unbiased analytical types on here to keep it real. Hope you continue to post in the future. Can you clean up the formatting in the future, the columns don't line up very well (sorry, just my OCD kicking in)

[Rossenbos]

WONDERFUL WORK!!

But do ask the mods to correct the original post, please.

I was annoyed seeing the mistake of Adam's "weekly prophecies" and if someone doesn't deserve to be on the wrong end of the copy-paste stick, it's him... :-)

[rollinthedice]

Extremely impressive analysis here, very well done! I'm glad to be your first +1

You did not indicate what YOUR rate/date predictions were, based on your own analysis...I'd be interested in your thoughts on that.

I didn't see Okie or several others here, was that because it was too obviously full of manure to include?

oom was okie oil man.

Very nicely done Mr. T!

Edited November 1, 2011 by rollinthedice

[Mr T]

WONDERFUL WORK!!

But do ask the mods to correct the original post, please.

I was annoyed seeing the mistake of Adam's "weekly prophecies" and if someone doesn't deserve to be on the wrong end of the copy-paste stick, it's him... :-)

I'm not sure how to get the Mods to correct the original post, but if any of the Mods are watching this, please make this change. In the original post, I had summarized many of the Gurus date & rate predictions. In this summary, I inadvertently indicated that Adam Montana generally predicts dates for the end of the week. That is incorrect, it should actually show that Adam Montana has consistently predicted the RV date to be between Thanksgiving and New Years. I changed this in a subsequent post, but to Rossenbos' point, if someone were to come into the original post, they may be misled regarding Adam's predictions. I have a great deal of respect for Adam Montana and have learned quite a bit about the IQD from his postings and chats, and would not like this misrepresentation to be carried forward into the future. Please either change the original posting (my corrected post was on Oct 29th at 4:45pm) or delete the original post and I will start a new thread with the corrected information.

Thanks Rossenbos, this is a great idea