ADAM & SONNY1 BOUT LOp 1-27 7PM CST

[Kent]

Stop it with the LOP already! The CBI last year put that to rest themselves! You find me notes 5 figures or less that have lopped. Also look at this currency stopping at 25K. It is LOW 5 digits. I would throughly expect it on million denoms and half expect it on 100K denoms but NOT this one.

Earnest, also answering your question earlier, look at this study on page 2: http://www.unc.edu/~lmosley/APSA%202005.pdf

"Among developing and transition nations, currency redenomination was employed on 60 occasions during the 1960-2003 period. These redenominations varied in size, from removing one zero from the currency (14 instances) to removing six zeros (9 instances); the median redenomination was three zeros, dividing the currency by 1000."

A lop or redenomination usually exchanges all currency, not just a few bills. That is different from when they retire a denomination from circulation and simply exchange for lower denomination bills currently in circulation.

[gr8cooker142]

100,000 is life changing money? I don't think so! good profit yes, but take your taxes out of it and you sure don't have enough to change your life.

Alot of people that have the dinars here on this site from what I been reading are just everyday working class people some without jobs and even more that have debt. Even after taxes are taken out I bet you that the profit that they would make would be a good way to stay over with their financial issues and have a new lease on life. So, yes that would be life changing money

[excursion]

I too think that the .10 wouild bring on more speculation than there is now and cost Iraq a lot more money very quickly.

[Fummins]

100,000 is life changing money? I don't think so! good profit yes, but take your taxes out of it and you sure don't have enough to change your life.

I disagree, ten million dinar at a .10 would change my life.

[Kent]

I disagree, ten million dinar at a .10 would change my life.

Darn, I guess I need to go buy another 8Mil quick

[scottiraq04]

Adam and Sonny1, could I respectfully ask you guys to analize the study at http://www.unc.edu/~lmosley/APSA%202005.pdf and offer your thoughts? If you don't want to post it feel free to send a PM.

...Also, the issue of Iraq debt incurred in the RV. Adam, with your 10 cent RV I agree completely and would jump on that and be grateful, but why wouldn't that create $4.3 Trillion dollars in debt for Iraq since their M2 is 43Trillion dinar? Or even if we just looked at the CBI figure for "currency in circulation outside banks" it is still $2 Trillion dollars in debt after conversion. I can't seem to find anyone who will help with those questions. BTW, the reference for the numbers is http://www.cbi.iq/xl&wr/key%20financial.xls on lines 77 and 69.

I've even played with some numbers about US sales alone based on Ali's and DinarBankers statements about how much they have sold. It would add about 50% to the Iraq budget to cash us out alone. Could you guys please comment on that whole line of thinking?

I would be grateful.

Kent

Kent - I've been catching up on the threads over the last month and what I've noticed is your posts are sticking out like a sore thumb...let me first say that I couldn't agree more with your line of logic. I fought this same fight, on this forum, during the latter part of 2009; and like you I did a ton of research, and tried to keep a calm, logical and respectful approach with others that did not agree (which at the time was most of the forum).

In the end here is what I found: 1) a LOP is possible - numerous reasons, mostly documented...and 2) a low RV is possible - numerous reasons, both documented and rumored (I believe that there is a shred of truth in every rumor, but the ultimate question is whether or not the truth compliments the rumor). For me, it is not which one of these is possible, but instead, which one is more probable.

Although there are a ton of things that must happen in order for an RV to occur, I am simply looking for the one thing that I know MUST happen before the RV and that I will see immediately...the needed smaller denominations hitting the domestic market in Iraq. I know and understand the logistics that would be involved in order to get these out to the public. I also KNOW that economically it is not an option (meaning nearly impossible) to RV and then start conducting exchanges for lower denominations. If anyone on this site thinks otherwise, then I fully encourage you to hire a PSC (Private Security Company) that will conduct PSD's (Personal Security Details) in Iraq, rent yourself a villa somewhere in Baghdad and start living amongst the people; your perspective will do a 180 degree turn in one week. I don't claim to have any GOI/CBI contacts, but what I do have is 100+ Iraqi friends that stretch all across Iraq; and a handful of them I would entrust the security of my family to. I like seeing Iraq through the eyes of the common man; I follow the money and the politics, but I respect the man it affects. While I respect those on this forum that follow the puzzle that is the "would be" RV, and the steps that are needed to occur, I am content with the probability that it will LOP...but since I also know that an RV is possible, I will continue to be on the look-out for those smaller denominations.

Kent, please let me know if you are able to get a good conversation going with Adam. I have always respected his research on the Dinar and his approach to issues on this forum. His opinion and documented reasoning on this issue would be highly valued.

I am tired of this fight, which is why I have stopped posting arguments similar to your own. And for all you bashers of forum members that talk about LOP's, don't worry, I won't be getting back into that arena...but don't expect me to sit back and do nothing while you beat a man/woman when he/she is down. Mr. Phonics likes to watch for grammar and spelling mistakes, and I like to watch for bashers. Keep it respectful out there and I'll keep my fingers off the keyboard.

[lancer22]

Kent - I've been catching up on the threads over the last month and what I've noticed is your posts are sticking out like a sore thumb...let me first say that I couldn't agree more with your line of logic. I fought this same fight, on this forum, during the latter part of 2009; and like you I did a ton of research, and tried to keep a calm, logical and respectful approach with others that did not agree (which at the time was most of the forum).

In the end here is what I found: 1) a LOP is possible - numerous reasons, mostly documented...and 2) a low RV is possible - numerous reasons, both documented and rumored (I believe that there is a shred of truth in every rumor, but the ultimate question is whether or not the truth compliments the rumor). For me, it is not which one of these is possible, but instead, which one is more probable.

Although there are a ton of things that must happen in order for an RV to occur, I am simply looking for the one thing that I know MUST happen before the RV and that I will see immediately...the needed smaller denominations hitting the domestic market in Iraq. I know and understand the logistics that would be involved in order to get these out to the public. I also KNOW that economically it is not an option (meaning nearly impossible) to RV and then start conducting exchanges for lower denominations. If anyone on this site thinks otherwise, then I fully encourage you to hire a PSC (Private Security Company) that will conduct PSD's (Personal Security Details) in Iraq, rent yourself a villa somewhere in Baghdad and start living amongst the people; your perspective will do a 180 degree turn in one week. I don't claim to have any GOI/CBI contacts, but what I do have is 100+ Iraqi friends that stretch all across Iraq; and a handful of them I would entrust the security of my family to. I like seeing Iraq through the eyes of the common man; I follow the money and the politics, but I respect the man it affects. While I respect those on this forum that follow the puzzle that is the "would be" RV, and the steps that are needed to occur, I am content with the probability that it will LOP...but since I also know that an RV is possible, I will continue to be on the look-out for those smaller denominations.

Kent, please let me know if you are able to get a good conversation going with Adam. I have always respected his research on the Dinar and his approach to issues on this forum. His opinion and documented reasoning on this issue would be highly valued.

I am tired of this fight, which is why I have stopped posting arguments similar to your own. And for all you bashers of forum members that talk about LOP's, don't worry, I won't be getting back into that arena...but don't expect me to sit back and do nothing while you beat a man/woman when he/she is down. Mr. Phonics likes to watch for grammar and spelling mistakes, and I like to watch for bashers. Keep it respectful out there and I'll keep my fingers off the keyboard.

Respectfully Scott, how do you get the low denoms out into the mainstream without an RV? It seems that at some point they will have to stand in line to exchange for the lower denoms... how the heck is that gonna be done?

Your response would be appreciated, but no response is respected all the same.. LC

[scottiraq04]

Respectfully Scott, how do you get the low denoms out into the mainstream without an RV? It seems that at some point they will have to stand in line to exchange for the lower denoms... how the heck is that gonna be done?

Your response would be appreciated, but no response is respected all the same.. LC

Good question...and let me be honest, I don't have the "end-all" answer. What I do have is an opinion based on a few options. 1) they could do a quick appreciation of the IQD which would force the smaller denominations onto the market without having to collapse it overnight (I can ellaborate on this "collapse" if you want me to)...2) they could do option #1 until most of the needed smaller denominations are on the market and then RV; this would still cause a strain on the market, but far less dramatic than an overnight RV...3) the CBI could force the already printed lower denominations (the 50 Dinar note, and the 100, 50 and 25 Dinar coins http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_dinar) onto the market (similar to their anti-dollar campaign) and then go with option #2 above. As a point of fact, I challenge anyone in Iraq to find a group of Iraqi's with any Dinar lower than 250...anything lower than 250 Dinar is near impossible to find in Iraq right now.

I'm sure there are more options out there, but these are the ones that come to mind right now.

The quick appreciation (something even Adam has alluded to) that leads to a near future RV should give the time needed to get the smaller denominations out. Either way, most of the needed denominations (to include the needed Fils) would be physically in place for an RV. Also, an RV prior to these denominations being out would be a MAJOR security concern throughout the country...soley because of the run on banks and local exchanges that would occur; these locations would be immediate targets for terrorists...and there is no doubt, they would be hit.

There is of course a flip side to these options...but Kent has done a good job of outlining those...

[Earnest T Bass]

Hey Adam I have a friend that said he would buy your dinar for .10 each post RV. Care to take him up on it? Kind of putting your dinar where your RV intel is.

good comments on this chat, I'm glad to see some people using their heads.

Particularly the post that explained how a $1000 investment turns into $100,000 if it RVs at a dime... you people who wouldn't take a dime must be ROLLING in money to not want a 100X return! A dollar would be great, but when I see a dime - you can bet your butt I'm cashing in at least some of my dinar. Cha-Ching!!!

[Danyel]

I don't think it will come in at .10 if it did more people would invest and hold there money and exchange later. I think that would cause a bigger mess. imo. thanks.......

[Kent]

Kent - I've been catching up on the threads over the last month and what I've noticed is your posts are sticking out like a sore thumb...let me first say that I couldn't agree more with your line of logic. I fought this same fight, on this forum, during the latter part of 2009; and like you I did a ton of research, and tried to keep a calm, logical and respectful approach with others that did not agree (which at the time was most of the forum).

In the end here is what I found: 1) a LOP is possible - numerous reasons, mostly documented...and 2) a low RV is possible - numerous reasons, both documented and rumored (I believe that there is a shred of truth in every rumor, but the ultimate question is whether or not the truth compliments the rumor). For me, it is not which one of these is possible, but instead, which one is more probable.

Although there are a ton of things that must happen in order for an RV to occur, I am simply looking for the one thing that I know MUST happen before the RV and that I will see immediately...the needed smaller denominations hitting the domestic market in Iraq. I know and understand the logistics that would be involved in order to get these out to the public. I also KNOW that economically it is not an option (meaning nearly impossible) to RV and then start conducting exchanges for lower denominations. If anyone on this site thinks otherwise, then I fully encourage you to hire a PSC (Private Security Company) that will conduct PSD's (Personal Security Details) in Iraq, rent yourself a villa somewhere in Baghdad and start living amongst the people; your perspective will do a 180 degree turn in one week. I don't claim to have any GOI/CBI contacts, but what I do have is 100+ Iraqi friends that stretch all across Iraq; and a handful of them I would entrust the security of my family to. I like seeing Iraq through the eyes of the common man; I follow the money and the politics, but I respect the man it affects. While I respect those on this forum that follow the puzzle that is the "would be" RV, and the steps that are needed to occur, I am content with the probability that it will LOP...but since I also know that an RV is possible, I will continue to be on the look-out for those smaller denominations.

Kent, please let me know if you are able to get a good conversation going with Adam. I have always respected his research on the Dinar and his approach to issues on this forum. His opinion and documented reasoning on this issue would be highly valued.

I am tired of this fight, which is why I have stopped posting arguments similar to your own. And for all you bashers of forum members that talk about LOP's, don't worry, I won't be getting back into that arena...but don't expect me to sit back and do nothing while you beat a man/woman when he/she is down. Mr. Phonics likes to watch for grammar and spelling mistakes, and I like to watch for bashers. Keep it respectful out there and I'll keep my fingers off the keyboard.

scottiraq, thanks so much for your thoughtful reply. I am encouraged to hear that someone else was moving down the same path and came to the conclusion that either a lop or a small RV are possible. Do you mind me asking what a small RV would look like? Are you talking a penny? A dime like Adam speculates? and what conclusion did you draw about the debt that Iraq would incur in the process? I hate to stirr you from your silence, but I'd love to know what someone with similar concerns thinks is feasable and as mentioned before, I have been unable to get anyone else to directly answer the question. It would be a real blessing to hear your further thoughts.

Kent

[Adam Montana]

Some awesome posts in this thread! These are the types of posts that will be rewarded when we get the upcoming awards system implemented...

***OOPS! I let a little cat out of the bag there, didn't I? ****

Well... maybe not posts like these:

Hey Adam I have a friend that said he would buy your dinar for .10 each post RV. Care to take him up on it? Kind of putting your dinar where your RV intel is.

Earnest, if your "friend" is willing to put his sarcasm where his Dinar is, tell him to register, get Dinar-ified, and then ask me himself. I'll agree to it as long as the RV rate is less than a dime. If it's over a dime, I'll go to the bank just like anyone else.

[Kent]

Good question...and let me be honest, I don't have the "end-all" answer. What I do have is an opinion based on a few options. 1) they could do a quick appreciation of the IQD which would force the smaller denominations onto the market without having to collapse it overnight (I can ellaborate on this "collapse" if you want me to)...2) they could do option #1 until most of the needed smaller denominations are on the market and then RV; this would still cause a strain on the market, but far less dramatic than an overnight RV...3) the CBI could force the already printed lower denominations (the 50 Dinar note, and the 100, 50 and 25 Dinar coins http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_dinar) onto the market (similar to their anti-dollar campaign) and then go with option #2 above. As a point of fact, I challenge anyone in Iraq to find a group of Iraqi's with any Dinar lower than 250...anything lower than 250 Dinar is near impossible to find in Iraq right now.

I'm sure there are more options out there, but these are the ones that come to mind right now.

The quick appreciation (something even Adam has alluded to) that leads to a near future RV should give the time needed to get the smaller denominations out. Either way, most of the needed denominations (to include the needed Fils) would be physically in place for an RV. Also, an RV prior to these denominations being out would be a MAJOR security concern throughout the country...soley because of the run on banks and local exchanges that would occur; these locations would be immediate targets for terrorists...and there is no doubt, they would be hit.

There is of course a flip side to these options...but Kent has done a good job of outlining those...

Regarding this question, couldn't they simply announce a 30 day recall of the high denom notes prior to an rv? If they give everyone time to trade them out and it is still at the deflated value it would force the distribution of lower denom's without as much security risk.... after that period they could do an rv. I guess that doesn't mesh with the urgency reflected in all the rumors about an rv, but it sounds like it would work and be relatively painless.

[rt59]

Darn, I guess I need to go buy another 8Mil quick

Kent, that is the whole point at the reference to .10 to get people to buy more. Oh my gosh I am not going to be rich with only a couple of mil..rush, rush, rush ...buy a lot more.. let's see if I have 20 mil IQD I will still have $2 mil before taxes..still not enough..need 40 mil IQD so maybe I can have close to $2 mil after taxes. Pump Pump Pump!

[Muhammad]

Exactly, the assumption that speculators would buy up at .10 is offset by the CBI announcement that they might LOP,it makes more sense to RV at .10, suck out the money of speculators, put money in the pockets of the locals thereby assuring Malaki's re-election, and a 100x return on investment for speculators. Then do a lop. Might be better to RV at .35 (or even .035) so that a 1 or 2 zero lop puts then on target for the GCC at 3.50, still a worthwile investment.

So, once 0.10 or 0.35 is revalued and be trapped by ERM and that's it - be stuck for another new decade when most of us might not be around to enjoy any fortune? The financial controllers under Maliki know that as well and they aren't any younger anymore to try exploiting everyone concerned.

[Kent]

Kent, that is the whole point at the reference to .10 to get people to buy more. Oh my gosh I am not going to be rich with only a couple of mil..rush, rush, rush ...buy a lot more.. let's see if I have 20 mil IQD I will still have $2 mil before taxes..still not enough..need 40 mil IQD so maybe I can have close to $2 mil after taxes. Pump Pump Pump!

rt, I was using a little friendly sarcasm. Frankly, I am sure there probably are some members planted by vendors, afterall, we don't know who anyone is, but personally I am not making a quick buying decision based on a rumors these days (but I am also not selling). If you read the rest of this string, or better, read this string ( http://dinarvets.com/forums/showthread.php?6716-Is-This-Real ) I still have concers about the possibility of a lop. If there is an rv, at least for now I personally think even a 10 cent rv is more than Iraq can afford. I come closer to believing a penny. Even then it costs Iraq more than 4 times their annual GDP in debt just to cash out. At least then, if foreign governments didn't cash in they would have time to grow their economy into that kind of money supply possibly without causing inflation. There is an economic formula that says (M)(V)=GDP. Money Supply times Velocity of Money (basically how fast money turns in the economy) equals the Gross Domestic Product. If you have too much money supply it causes inflation or even hyper-inflation. Too little causes deflation. I think Iraq can do no more than the lesser of 1). what other countries think Iraq can afford (otherwise they won't be able to trade their currency) or 2). what Iraq's economy can support in debt and money supply.

Sorry, that was a $3 answer to a two bit post, but perhaps it helps.

[Kent]

So, once 0.10 or 0.35 is revalued and be trapped by ERM and that's it - be stuck for another new decade when most of us might not be around to enjoy any fortune? The financial controllers under Maliki know that as well and they aren't any younger anymore to try exploiting everyone concerned.

Muhammad, I would be interested to know why you think they have to immediately go into an ERM. Why not next year after they do a small rv (your example) and then float or lop to get to a $3 rate? From reading your prior posts, I know better than to think you are just speculating. I bet you have a good reason for your thinking.

[scottiraq04]

scottiraq, thanks so much for your thoughtful reply. I am encouraged to hear that someone else was moving down the same path and came to the conclusion that either a lop or a small RV are possible. Do you mind me asking what a small RV would look like? Are you talking a penny? A dime like Adam speculates? and what conclusion did you draw about the debt that Iraq would incur in the process? I hate to stirr you from your silence, but I'd love to know what someone with similar concerns thinks is feasable and as mentioned before, I have been unable to get anyone else to directly answer the question. It would be a real blessing to hear your further thoughts.

Kent

Regarding this question, couldn't they simply announce a 30 day recall of the high denom notes prior to an rv? If they give everyone time to trade them out and it is still at the deflated value it would force the distribution of lower denom's without as much security risk.... after that period they could do an rv. I guess that doesn't mesh with the urgency reflected in all the rumors about an rv, but it sounds like it would work and be relatively painless.

So, you are trying to wake me from my slumber are you

[Kent]

scotiraq, I think it is fascinating that we independently came to the same conclusion about what Iraq can afford and also completely agree about Adam. I have no idea what other thoughts or information he might have about how he got to 10 cents and hope he will contribute to the string. He obviously appreciated your prior post and so do I. Thanks again for coming out of silence for me. Frankly, I got a little tired after a recent string and put up http://dinarvets.com/forums/showthread.php?7545-Debunking-the-myths-of-the-infamous-bunny-ear-(lop) to try and get more than a soundbite from some of the more knowledgable folks on the site. It pretty much went flat. I might be taking a little more of a back seat myself. I really don't want to be a perinnial kill-joy (or the "sore thumb")and have really been trying to fish for a reason to have a more optomistic perspective. It is amazing to me that this line of thinking is so quickly dismissed without offering a direct response. Thanks again. I look forward to searching your posts in the member file to learn what I can.

[scottiraq04]

scotiraq, I think it is fascinating that we independently came to the same conclusion about what Iraq can afford and also completely agree about Adam. I have no idea what other thoughts or information he might have about how he got to 10 cents and hope he will contribute to the string. He obviously appreciated your prior post and so do I. Thanks again for coming out of silence for me. Frankly, I got a little tired after a recent string and put up http://dinarvets.com/forums/showthread.php?7545-Debunking-the-myths-of-the-infamous-bunny-ear-(lop) to try and get more than a soundbite from some of the more knowledgable folks on the site. It pretty much went flat. I might be taking a little more of a back seat myself. I really don't want to be a perinnial kill-joy (or the "sore thumb")and have really been trying to fish for a reason to have a more optomistic perspective. It is amazing to me that this line of thinking is so quickly dismissed without offering a direct response. Thanks again. I look forward to searching your posts in the member file to learn what I can.

It’s been a pleasure discussing this topic with you...

I'm with you and hope that Adam hits us both with a lead pipe of information. If not, maybe enough to make me scratch my head and say "I didn't think about that". Either way, if he doesn't respond I can fully understand why and will still respect his silence.

I know what it feels like to post these particular opinions and receive replies that are nothing short of “you’re crazy”. It’s like banging your head against a brick wall and constantly looking for a brick that will give…eventually you are going to need pain medication LOL. Although it is your option to take a backseat like I have, I would encourage you to still respond where facts are being eschewed. What I mean by this is that there are still plenty of forum members that are stating defined terms incorrectly, or they have misunderstood a document or article about a particular issue, old issues resurfacing when they were debunked 4 months ago by documented facts that new forum members haven’t seen yet; they may not even understand what the IMF or World Bank really does…or maybe they don’t understand the Arab culture within Iraq. New comers to this forum are being bashed or shunned to the side because they are supposedly asking too many questions and not doing the research for themselves. Although they should definitely do some of their own research, it is in our best interest to provide what links/URL’s we have to help them along…and in a respectful manner. The quicker they can do the research the faster we will have additional educated opinions…and that serves everyone’s interest.

You’re welcome to hit me up on PM anytime to discuss anything you’d like, and if I come up with any new ideas I’ll pass it your way for proofing first. Here is my email as well… scottiraq04@hotmail.com …if you’d like I can send you every research link/URL I currently have. As with most links they will lead you to numerous others links for whatever research you are trying to accomplish. Take Care.

[Kent]

It’s been a pleasure discussing this topic with you...

I'm with you and hope that Adam hits us both with a lead pipe of information. If not, maybe enough to make me scratch my head and say "I didn't think about that". Either way, if he doesn't respond I can fully understand why and will still respect his silence.

I know what it feels like to post these particular opinions and receive replies that are nothing short of “you’re crazy”. It’s like banging your head against a brick wall and constantly looking for a brick that will give…eventually you are going to need pain medication LOL. Although it is your option to take a backseat like I have, I would encourage you to still respond where facts are being eschewed. What I mean by this is that there are still plenty of forum members that are stating defined terms incorrectly, or they have misunderstood a document or article about a particular issue, old issues resurfacing when they were debunked 4 months ago by documented facts that new forum members haven’t seen yet; they may not even understand what the IMF or World Bank really does…or maybe they don’t understand the Arab culture within Iraq. New comers to this forum are being bashed or shunned to the side because they are supposedly asking too many questions and not doing the research for themselves. Although they should definitely do some of their own research, it is in our best interest to provide what links/URL’s we have to help them along…and in a respectful manner. The quicker they can do the research the faster we will have additional educated opinions…and that serves everyone’s interest.

You’re welcome to hit me up on PM anytime to discuss anything you’d like, and if I come up with any new ideas I’ll pass it your way for proofing first. Here is my email as well… scottiraq04@hotmail.com …if you’d like I can send you every research link/URL I currently have. As with most links they will lead you to numerous others links for whatever research you are trying to accomplish. Take Care.

Ditto on all and again my thanks. Any links I ought to see would be welcome. My email is hagood@cuainsurance.com . I'd love to reciprocate, but most of my perspective comes from reading about economics and not Iraq in particular - but I'd be anxious to share.

It is amazing how many on the site seem to be members within the last few months (like me). That is one of the reasons I've tried to explain things in my posts - want to make a contribution. Again, I don't mind naysayers. -just wish they would offer some documentation to support the prevailing view. Without any intelligent response, it is hard not to believe that dreams of wealth aren't affecting their judgment. Many seem to block out reason rather than deal with hard evidence. Of course, I don't want to be dogmatic either.

And wow, about that bashing... some folks seem so irrationally up tight (although they haven't been too bad toward me very often). I've been pretty quiet on that and I'll join you in that fight.

Great visiting with you on this string.

Kent

[Earnest T Bass]

Well he would have joined today except since his computer died the library is the closest computer but snow closed it. But he will join soon as possible.

As for this reward thing, I am not here for that. Besides I will be busy with that friend getting his patent (543-0333) to the market. Power without pollution will be worth billions. By the way that patent is googleable.

Some awesome posts in this thread! These are the types of posts that will be rewarded when we get the upcoming awards system implemented...

***OOPS! I let a little cat out of the bag there, didn't I? ****

Well... maybe not posts like these:

Earnest, if your "friend" is willing to put his sarcasm where his Dinar is, tell him to register, get Dinar-ified, and then ask me himself. I'll agree to it as long as the RV rate is less than a dime. If it's over a dime, I'll go to the bank just like anyone else.

[gideonx]

when I read the posts of the zero lops posted by Kent and supported by a few others, I can't help having this image of a turkey pecking busily on the ground looking for something to eat.......... sorry

Can we look at this another way.....the technical mechanism aside:

Iraq is trying to convince the big 5 permanent members to remove it (Iraq) from Chapter 7.

If the "RV lop" (as proposed by Kent) is how Iraq is going to convince them that Iraq is ready to join the hurly-burly business of world financial communities, do you think they will agree?

[scottiraq04]

when I read the posts of the zero lops posted by Kent and supported by a few others, I can't help having this image of a turkey pecking busily on the ground looking for something to eat.......... sorry

Can we look at this another way.....the technical mechanism aside:

Iraq is trying to convince the big 5 permanent members to remove it (Iraq) from Chapter 7.

If the "RV lop" (as proposed by Kent) is how Iraq is going to convince them that Iraq is ready to join the hurly-burly business of world financial communities, do you think they will agree?

This is a common question, but still a good one...A LOP by nature is monetarily neutral and therefore would not affect their current or future standings in the financial community. Here is a rough example: if you paid $1,000 USD for 1,000,000 IQD then a 3 zero LOP with an RV of 1:1 would mean that your printed 1 million IQD would worth $1,000 USD...even after the LOP and RV of 1:1 your IQD is still worth exactly what you paid for it...hence monetarily neutral. BUT, if this type of LOP and RV is monetarily neutral for you then it will be the same for the people of Iraq...and therefore they would not have increased their purchasing power nor truely increased the value of their currency. For a "3 zero" LOP to be successful they MUST RV higher than 1:1. Everything higher than 1:1 (for example a rate of 1.50 to the USD) would put their currency worth more than the USD and therefore increase their purchasing power...in fact, that would put them higher than a few of their neighbors; to include Saudi Arabia.

Now, if you start looking at either a "1 zero" or "2 zero" LOP then they could conceivably stay lower than the 1:1 rate and still ultimately increase the value of currency, thereby increasing their purchasing power...but I'm sure explaining those options would fly like a lead ballon...LOL.

I see the point that you are trying to make, and I respect it. Your line of thinking has good economical and political merit and therefore can not be dismissed. I try not to argue a LOP as "right or wrong", but more along the lines that it has merit as well. Also, I don't think Kent has proposed that a LOP is how Iraq is going to convince the financial communities that they are ready to enter the world market. In Kent's defense he is trying to understand, with documented facts, how Iraq can afford or pay for a Speculative Attack; which would definately happen with an RV. What Kent has found is that a rebase (LOP + RV) of the currency is the most probable way they could afford it...that's it in a nutshell.

[Kent]

gideonx, I would just add one more thing to scottiraq's (really good) post. Actually that study posted on the UNC, Chapel Hill web site that is referenced in http://dinarvets.com/forums/showthread.php?7545-Debunking-the-myths-of-the-infamous-bunny-ear-%28lop%29 actually indicates that governments do a lop to improve the credibility of their currency in the eyes of foreign governments and their own citizens. Although value neutral in the change, a currency that doesn't have all those zeros simply looks more credible. It is a way that governments try and tell the world and their people that monetary problems of the past are behind them. I would encourage you to read the study. It was a statistical analysis of all lops since 1960 to determine factors that make a government more likely to do one. The description in the first few pages of the report offer a lot of perspective. Don't count too heavily on the 7 Hypothesis' because he tells you at the end which aspects statistically validated and offers his conclusions at the end. I think there is simply a lot of misunderstanding about the reasons, circumstances and impact of a lop. It has a very negative connotation among dinar investors, but it apparently is a common tool of the IMF (and that too was statistically verified in the report).