A different perspective

[slatesrh]

Excellent post, drox. I couldn't agree more. And for the record, I'm no guru. I'm just a guy sitting in his underwear staring at a computer screen trying to sort out the facts from the moose hockey.

Thanks for the visual Scooby Doo !!!! lol

Great post

[sufer223]

My mistake, In the past i had an argument or debate about the currency being fully convertible on another site which it is as I had found a law stating so. I thought for some reason thinking back we were debating on it being internationaly recognized. So not as of yet is it internationaly recognized (Officially), but then how come banks have them in there currency catalogs?

[lgraham]

Drox.....

I didn't see your thread until this morning. It is funny that I woke up to this because I was thinking to myself last night about starting a thread that would create the strongest arguments possible against an immediate RV or a high RV or even having an RV at all. Then from there try to see if we can successfully defeat the strongest arguments with facts.

So, I wake up this morning only to learn that you beat me to it by a couple of days. I should have known, you are always a step ahead. I am really thankful that you have done this. I noticed that you did not even bother with bringing the possible LOP theory into your argument.

Trimark has done a great job with his remarks which I completely agree with. I need some more time for a more comprehensive reply. I will try to do so with a focus on the DFI fund that is so critical to the susstainability of this plan to come together.

Drox. Now that you have created a very solid argument, perhaps you can work on one of your own questions and post a strong argument that can satisfy your question. Sometimes it is best to be a skeptic.....then attempt to find the information that convinces you that the original premise was wrong. That can make anyone a very strong believer. The best believers are often the ones that were a previous skeptic.

You fall into this category as do I. I think SteveI would be in this category as well. I was glad to see that Scooter jumped in here. Perhaps he might have some time to link one of his research postings that offers an answer to your strong questions.

Great post Drox

Lgraham

[icutiewatcher]

Thank you, Drox. I think we all needed a little grounding. I have been trying to go about my everyday focus, but man, I'll tell you, when you get caught up on the hype, it is tough! Thanks for the reminder and the very thoughtful and eloquent post. Very appreciated, neighbor.

[TimS]

that is another question.......bank catalogs show the currency because it is in fact the currency being used in the counrty, but it is basically worthless outside the country. Which brings us back to my original question........was Saadam's dinar worth $3.22 on the world market or was that just some number it translated to inside the country prior to him invading Kuiwait? What are you going to do.....what are most people going to do if Iraq says their currency is worth $3 US but no bank will homor that rate? Can we all just run over to iraq to trade in our dinar....of course not, and nobody else will honor a rate that isn't internationally traded on the open market.....without that recognition, who's going to give you real US dollars without the legal safeties and guarranties of the world banking industry to stand behind them? Nobody, that's who.......

right now, the Iraq dinar is pure speculation......whomever is selling it ios doing it at no risk to themselves....there is no exposure on thier books what so ever.....5/3rd buys it up dirt cheap, sells it for a quick little profit as does all these dinar sites do.......but most of these sites won't even aquire the dinar until they have a confirmed buyer and at 1180 dinar per dollar, how much exposure is there? not much.....

How much exposure is there if the dinar is worth $3US? Tons and no US bank will leave themselves open to billions of dollars of exposure UNLESS ythe currency is freely and openly traded on the world markets. None of this is rocket science.....at least I don't think it is......

[thunderrb]

What a great post by Drox, he appears organized, focused and knowlegdeable. Some times our excitement gets in front of good old common sense.

[sessi]

This is truly superb Drox, and really does put this into perspective.

It is just staggering, or perhaps not, how much is just taken as read without any question with some of commentary of late. Thank you so much for this. Brilliant.

[syzygy]

Most real and honest post i've seen on this forum..will go down as the top 10 in my book...thanks for this refreshing and realistic outlook on this investment.

[Soldier]

Sombody who has woke up. Awesome.

[BOOBOODOG]

How do you guys who believe this know that the banks are not ready for this?

Sure all that would take time but this show has been many years in the making

[drox]

Thanks for all of the outstanding input and nice compliments. Everyone has something to add to help peel this onion which is awesome. I can’t address them all because I am already long-winded as you can see. This will be long.

I am certainly no expert and do not have a crystal ball. I just follow the research and try and use a common sense business approach to determine where it needs to go. Understand, I want this to happen every bit as much as you. No doubt, Iraq is an enormous new market opening up to the world for consumer goods and investment opportunity alone. Add in the oil and gas asset reserves, the new democracy smack dab in the center of the Middle East, add in it’s rich religious history opening itself to a future tourist destination, and it is clear this will be a remarkable opportunity. The Dinar simply cannot go anywhere but up! Ahh, but how much and when? Time, action, security, oil prices, and world recognition seem to be the variables that will dictate.

I like to follow the Iraqi economists. They all tend to agree that the purchasing power for citizens is underperforming and unfair. When they discuss increasing the exchange rates they always seem to follow it with increasing investment both foreign and domestic. In addition they point to infrastructure needs and further bank modifications. It implies to me that they intend to grow the economy naturally. I have yet to see one Iraqi article from any Iraqi economist or Iraqi opinion column that points to the type of RV/RI we are all hoping for. They seem to be focused on creating a strong investment environment.

Of course a $3 RI is a possibility but I can't make any sense of how it could happen. Can you visualize the chaos that a $3 RI could possibly create at this moment in Iraq? In my opinion, it would create anarchy in the streets. The division between classes of poor, middle, and upper would be staggering. The poor would be left penniless and the wealthy would rule supreme. There would be unspeakable and rampant crime unlike anything we have seen. The haves versus the have-nots. They can barely keep up with Al-Qaeda now, how will they keep the peace if normal citizens join the chaos? If I divided the DV site people into 2 groups… Men and Women and gave all the women $1 million each and the men nothing… what would happen? Now imagine all living together in the same area right next door to each other.

Equal opportunity must occur for everyone to avoid that scenario. With quotes of 15%-25% unemployment it is clear to me that the economy must be strong enough to provide employment opportunity first. On top of that, only 2% of the workforce works in oil and gas even though it makes up 90% of the GDP. I was shocked. The majority work for the government. This is one reason why the economists all want investment in the country and to fix the infrastructure first. It makes no sense whatsoever to RI now. Iraq does not have sufficient laws in place yet, although they have some. They are still working on the laws for foreign investors and creating the proper currency convertibility for those corporations to risk even going there. As of 2010, Iraq was ranked 175 out of 178 countries in Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index. It was ranked 178 in 2008! Investors have to contend with requests for bribes and kickbacks from government officials at all levels. Remember the Electricity Minister? A strong, safe, and credible working environment has to be implemented by this new Parliament for an RV to occur and the economy to thrive.

It isn’t all doom and gloom though. Fantastic things are obviously happening. The government is almost set. Optimism has returned. As investment pours in from foreign countries it will bring more foreign currency in. That will force the Dinar value to rise. The problem is that Iraq needs to be careful that the Dinar doesn’t rise so much that it makes it much cheaper to import goods then to create the goods themselves in country. At least not for all goods. They don’t want the economy to outpace itself. Otherwise, it will limit new industry from forming and keep Iraq a one industry economy. Iraq wants diversity in the GDP so that they are not at the mercy of oil price fluctuation. This is another argument why the economy will probably grow organically with bump-ups from the CBI versus an RI. Think of the economy as a living breathing thing. Too much of one thing will make it die. This is NOT Kuwait. It is a completely different scenario in my opinion. Once the currency is can be traded internationally that is when I believe we will see our wealth opportunity emerge.

These are my thoughts and I am not trying to woo anyone from theirs. Just sharing to help you figure out yours. I am prepared to wait for the wealth to happen. If it happens sooner…. Like this weekend as some predict… well, I will volunteer to pour the shots the first 2 hours at the party and you can harass me then! Hope that happens! Stay enthusiastic, but just understand it could also require some patience too. Anyone that suggests this is not a possibility and calls you an idiot for using your brain with logic and reason is really doing you a disservice. Anything can happen and there are lots of possible scenarios! Like yours!

Drox

Edited November 18, 2010 by drox

[dbo175]

Great post Drox!! It's greatly appreciated to hear someone firmly grounded in the facts and and well versed in them.

[muchodinaro]

How do you guys who believe this know that the banks are not ready for this?

Sure all that would take time but this show has been many years in the making

I agree with you. The banks are ready, and more importantly Ali is ready. All Drox stated was opinion, based on events that need to happen that are fact. Everything he laid out will be solved with an RV. Removal from Chapter 7 goes hand in hand with an RV. When the RV happens the currency will be recognized and tradeable immediately, that's why Ali will open his 7 remaining banks within 7 days of the RV. The HCL and all the other scenarios he laid out have been worked on for over 8 months now, while they have been trying to seat a government. They are a lot further along than Drox is giving them credit for. When they RV, then they can pay contracts out in Dinar, because it will be recognized and very valuable. If the RV comes out low as Drox is stating, the Dinar will skyrocket from all the investors buying it up, either way we win, that is if you hold on to some of it. Cash in a little to make life easier on your finances. When I read Drox's thread, it made it sound like Iraq is years away from doing anything siginificant. That is his opinion, and he stated it eloquently. This is my opinion, and it is shared by over 60 % ( according to the poll about when the RV will happen ). I still also believe that the U.S. has some influence on the the timing of the RV, and believe than Uncle Sam wants his tax money in April. Goooooooooo RV/RI November 2010.

Edited November 19, 2010 by muchodinaro

[muchodinaro]

Absolutely Drox, great post....and jmw, too. I've been saying this all along, but everybody reacts negatively, I must not be saying my piece "nice" enough for everyone. As for the internal adjustment for the Iraqi people, GREAT POINT.......all these things must be dealt with which is why I don't see the RV happening so quickly.

Unless some one can come up with an alternate working mechanism, you can be sure of one thing.......(just as was said by some one else) No US bank or any other bank for that matter, is going to give an individual $15,000,000.00 US for thier 5,000,000 IQD unless they can recover it PLUS the profitable spread. The only way that can happen is if the currencies trade on the world markets and that won't happen until Iraq fulfills the necessary requirements the qualifies them to participate in the various organizations that trade currencies. Every I must be dotted, every T crossed......this all takes time.

Every one wants to focus on the "big" picture items....which are great and necessary for the process to move forward, but until the paper work gets done, there is no deal. I talked to a salesman for 10 minutes, made a deal and bought a car........BUT it took 75 more minutes to fill out the paperwork before I could drive that thing off the showroom floor. The RV deal is only about 10,000 times more complicated than that sort of thing......use common sense.

Drox......I love it........all you asked for was less speculation and more facts. Wishing won't make it so, where are all the banking and currency trading "experts" who can give us facts on the "how things physically work?" We get mostly theory and hype on a daily basis....for years. That's great for water cooler gossip, but where are the people explaining "exactly" what must happen for the RV to physiaclly manifest itself. There are thousands of people who go thru this site, some among us must be in the know.....so dish ?

If you're in the "know" then why are you here everyday. Come back when you know that the RV is imminent. It may appear to you that nothing has been getting accomplished over in Iraq, because the government has been slow to form, but all the issues that Drox stated have been addressed, and will be done very quickly after the RV. It's not going to be a low RV either. JMHO. Gooooooo RV/RI November 2010. Edited November 19, 2010 by muchodinaro

[Tiffany23]

What a nice string of comments! I learned a lot...ever notice that the smartest people are always the nicest!

[Tiffany23]

Its like they say, "Intelligence is bliss"

You took the words right out of my mouth!

As my father always says, if you are stupid, you better learn to be tough!