I'm not going to be able to put as much in this update as I wanted, due to some crazy travel snafus in my life, but I still have to get this posted - there's no way I'd be able to sleep tonight with this bouncing around in my head!
I've been saying for a couple months now that oil to ~$60 was what I want to see. This is not because $60 is a "magic number", so even though we *almost* hit $60 this week ($59.85 I think!!!), I'm going to state that the oil price is "close enough" and we are officially in the GREEN ZONE on that aspect.
A declining price in oil would have made the RV-Button-Pushers pull back. That didn't happen.
A sudden spike to $60 would have urged no action, because a sudden pullback would have been expected. That didn't happen either!
What we have been seeing in the price of oil is a steady climb, very controlled and consistent, towards the $60 mark.
Keep in mind that the OPEC oil production limitation agreement that virtually every OPEC country/member has signed onto, with the exception of Iraq, is largely responsible for this controlled growth. (Without a doubt, some of you bean counter number crunching over-analyzers will have something to say about that... I'm speaking in general. There's no need to get into micro details at this time!)
Iraq is playing along as a supporting cheerleader to the oil reduction plan, just as we suspected they would, but they have never specifically committed to the reductions in production that OPEC is conducting at this time. That means they have nothing stopping them from a sudden ramp-up in production and sales to generate a large amount of cash, while the rest of the major oil producing nations will need to at least prepare a diplomatic speech before they catch up, if they even choose to do so.
We all know that it won't just be us little investors and Iraq that benefits from a change in the Iraqi Dinar. Every country that has physical dinar in their reserves, or any kind of trade alliance with Iraq, will also benefit.
That's one piece of the puzzle, and an important one, but what's even more important is the overall picture... which just keeps getting better and better.
Iraq's reserves reporting positive news:
Iraq's Prime Minister Mahdi continues to be well received:
There are a couple more items I want to talk about, but this update is already extremely late so I'm just going to get it posted and follow up tomorrow or Monday with the rest.
Before I click submit here... the summary is simple:
Iraq could not ask for a better scenario under which to increase the value of their currency.
Surprise, it's THURSDAY! Let's talk about dinar for a few moments:
Oil saw a nice upward spike yesterday. We're not quite to $60, but the trend is still positive.
I expect it to pull back a tiny smidge, then continue the steady pace in this direction:
This is probably a good time to be sure you all understand something - I'm not saying "the day OIL hits $60, we will have an RV"!
$60 was the direction I wanted to see, and we're basically there. As long as the current trend continues, we are in the (green) zone.
Steady and controlled oil prices, + steady and stable GOI, + some HCL goodies... that's what we're looking for, and it keeps coming!
One item that is of note, and may push us out just a little bit, is the budget/fiscal year. There is a LOT of accounting to be done with any kind of monetary change, and it would certainly make things cleaner to change the rate on a specific date that coincided with something logical like the start of a fiscal year or quarter, or perhaps the beginning of a new budget, or something like that.
We are a couple weeks away from the end of Iraq's first fiscal quarter. Their fiscal (XYZ) can be a bit confusing because they don't get the new budget out until after the new fiscal year has already begun, and in the past they have stated that surplus in the budget applies to the following year.
Oh, there's nothing like proper planning, where the first three months of the year you have no idea what's in your checking account or what bills are in the mailbox!
That's nothing to concern us, of course. In fact, with the steady progress we're seeing in all other areas, the prospect of a currency value change at the start of Iraq's Q2 is a pretty reasonable thought.
In other news... not much I can say right now!
Parliament is in session and WORKING.
The latest on a relevant HCL thread is here:
We don't have an announcement, but all of the clues are saying *soon*.
That's what I have for you this fine Thursday, friends!
I'll be monitoring, have a fantastic day, and GOO RRRVVVVVV!!!
Happy International Women's Day, especially to those of you amazing women
on our staff and member list here at DV. The world, and DV, would not be as
awesome without you!
This has been an interesting week in the markets, but not so much for Dinar
when it comes to actual news.
There's a good reason for this.
Oil has been pretty flat, just like the news on HCL. Step back and take a "big
picture" view of the situation, and it's easy to understand that this is to be
expected. I find it amusing to read the headlines that state "Oil production falls
to (X time frame) lows..."
Hang on a second, oil "falls"?!
That's the headline? I don't think that's accurate. It's not "falling" - it's being controlled,
exactly as they planned.
This is a topic we've been on top of since 2017, before the talk of OPEC agreeing
to slowing oil production. The headlines would be more accurate if they said
"Planned reduction in oil production to stabilize prices"
But that doesn't get as many clicks, it's just not as sensational... even though it's the truth.
And we've been expecting it, because we have been watching this sector through
a fairly specialized set of glasses.
Interpretation: All is going according to plan.
And if all is going according to plan, then it's just a matter of time.
Sunday is the first day of work for the Iraqi week, so I'd suggest taking a couple days
away from the "news" - get in VIP for the peace of mind, do some reading in there if you
want to be prepared, informed, and ready. Otherwise enjoy a couple of days away, because
we're not going to have an RV in the next couple days.
Unless I'm wrong. I'm always open to that possibility!
I think at this point... I officially give up trying to move the weekly updates to Friday. Or Thursday. So I'm going to officially move them to Wednesdays for now
I'm about to lose my internet, and my laptop battery is at 4%, so this will be a short post.
Unless you all see anything different - I'd say things are still pointed the right direction.
OIL took a tiny step backwards, but still tracking for a win if my target of $60 is correct. I'll include a super-technical chart analysis below:
In addition to what I'm hearing from the other side of the pond, and what my own experience and insights conclude, I still believe that $60 mark is where we want to be headed. Hitting that price, on the current trajectory, is solid evidence of stability in the markets and will be reassuring to the CBI so they can take some bold steps.
There is a low rumble off in the distance that sounds like an HCL thunderstorm, so we'll keep an eye on that.
And I just hit 2% battery, so I'll get this posted now and rejoin the conversation(s) later.
I'm having a really hard time breaking the "Wednesday" habit
I spend hours every day researching and communicating with my people on the Iraqi Dinar, international business, asset protection, etc... and by the time Wednesday comes around, I end up with so much stuff that needs to be cleared off of my plate, it seems impossible to put it off any further!
Truthfully, I didn't realize how much of my week centers around these weekly updates. There are people I work with who know how important it is to get me my information by Tuesday, and are extremely dedicated to their roles, so even if there's nothing to report - they are checking in with me on Monday and Tuesday. Despite my best efforts to move these weekly updates to later in the week, it just hasn't happened yet. Oh well!
Today is short and sweet. There is nothing negative to report - Parliament is working, OIL is still going the right way, and my gut tells me they are just kicking a few last details around. If something counter productive were to happen right now, I'd take a harder look at things... but that's not the case. Everything is lining up!
Parliament: still working, and working effectively.
OIL: still moving towards $60, and doing it steadily.
The only thing we can ask for right now is that BOOM! HCL news.
Keep your heads on straight! This really feels like the home stretch.
P.S. It's too late to place your bets once the final home run is hit! If you're not in VIP when the RV is announced, you miss your chance forever.