Enorrste: My Take on "Where We Are" as of 6/30/2010

[ronscarpa]

Enorrste: My Take on "Where We Are" as of 6/30/2010

Posted on zzz

Orig. Post: by Enorrste on CC

There is a great deal of news and some definite "movement" now as the pressure continues to be placed on Iraq to get its house in order. Here is a review of where I see the situation as of today.

The G20 meeting had as its agenda the "world financial crisis, exchange rates in the Middle East and exchange rates in the Far East." This, then, is the backdrop for all discussions moving forward, IMO. Clearly the Iraqi situation has moved from a "local" phenomenon to an "international" phenomenon. I tend to agree with TerryK that this coming RV/RI will involve several countries at the same time. I also agree that there will not be an opportunity to "double dip".

The pressure on Iraq is now immense. It appears to me that Obama and Geitner have let the cat out of the bag regarding the RV in Iraq. Obama's statement to the effect that he would eliminate the US debt in 3 years can mean only one thing: the RV is truly at our doorstep now. There is no other "vehicle" that could make elimination of our debt possible other than the RV.

As I've stated many times in chat and on posts, the RV will turn out to be the single biggest economic event in the history of the planet. TerryK and I have often used the phrase "reboot the world economy" (RV4Me333 has also used this phrase as well). It summarizes quickly exactly how powerful this event will be. The RV will "fill up" the coffers of many countries in he world, allowing them the freedom to reduce their debts and at the same time begin rebuilding the world economy. I've also stated before that I believe that many underdeveloped economies also are holding smaller amounts of IQD which will help them "reboot" as well.

The short term (2 to 4 years) affect will be a great boost in the world economic situation. Trade will increase and factories will begin hiring again and producing at greater and greater capacity. The bloated inventory of homes in the US will be snatched up by "cash" buyers in many cases, but also by regular home buyers as their economic situation improves. We should see a real boost in the attitude of the people in the short term. In another post I will present another scenario that is not as bright, especially for the longer term. However, this is enough for now.

Regarding the internal situation in Iraq and the events that will enfold to get us to the magic RV/RI event, I'd like to summarize for you all where I believe we are and where this is heading. I will also try to put some time parameters on my comments.

As you all know there are 4 main political factions: the Kurdish Alliance, Iraqiya (Allawi), State of Law (Maliki), and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA, led by Jafaari and Mahdi). You also know that on June 11 the State of Law joined with the INA to form a super coalition called the National Alliance (NA).

You also know that Iraqiya has joined with the Kurdish Alliance so that now there are two major coalitions sparring to be allowed to form the new government. Allawi is insisting on his right under the constitution to be the first to attempt to form a government. On the other side the NA is now saying that the Court's interpretation of Article 76 of the Constitution gives them the right to make the first attempt. This COULD be a problem as we approach the mandated July 14 deadline for the formation of the government.

However, we are seeing cracks in the structure of the NA. Here are the issues. First, the Sadrist faction of the INA has stated in no unclear terms that Maliki will not be allowed to run for a second term. He has since been backed by Jafaari in that view. Therefore, up until today, the overall NA has no clear candidate for the PM slot. Maliki, of course, believes that he has the "right" to be the nominee since he is the current office holder. However, we now see, just today, that the NA is moving ahead WITHOUT Maliki and that they are ready to announce their candidate tomorrow. The candidate will almost certainly be Jafaari, but might be Mahdi. In any case, by law they have to have a candidate before going in front of parliament.

The result of this "internal struggle" in the NA is that it is about to collapse. Maliki is very frustrated at his inability to secure his position as the nominee for the PM position from within the NA. The result is that Maliki, seeing the handwriting on the wall, so to speak, has now begun to make overtures to Allawi in an attempt to retain a position of some power in the newly formed government.

Now we move to the other "super coalition". The Kurds have made their position clear in the last couple of days: they want to hold the position of President of the Republic and won't accept either of the other two presidencies. Talibani, a Kurd, currently holds that position and would, presumably, remain in that slot. This could present a problem for Allawi as he continues to negotiate with Maliki. Clearly both men want the PM position, but Maliki is not in a controlling role at this point. So the question is this: what can Allawi offer to Maliki that will cause Maliki to leave the NA and join in the Kurd/Iraqiya super coalition?

The answer is that Maliki would have to accept one of the other presidencies. Neither of these is as powerful as the Presidency of the Republic which Talabani now holds.

Allawi then has to determine whether he can offer Maliki the position Talabani now holds without losing the Kurds entirely. I suspect that he won't be able to do that. At the same time I don't think that Maliki is interested in being the President of the Parliament. However, he might accept the position as President of the Government. In this way he would remain near the helm of power.

Maliki through out a "bone" to Allawi a few days ago, stating that he would even accept a position as "Vice Premier" as long as he also received the control of six of the key ministries. The ministries that he wanted to control are very big in the new economic reality of Iraq, so I doubt that Allawi took this seriously.

So as of today we see that they are very close but still at somewhat of an impasse. The NA believes that it now is ready to move forward with Jafaari or Mahdi as their candidate and will probably press for their right to form the government based on the court's ruling.

At the same time, however, Allawi has been makin back door deals and is close to closing a deal with Maliki. Should he succeed in this then the NA will collapse and Allawi will have the sole right to form the new government, since at the election he received the most seats (91). I predict, as I have now for several weeks, that Allawi will succeed and because of this a Constitutional Crisis will be avoided.

Furthermore, I believe that Allawi will offer the other 2 presidencies to Jafaari and Mahdi of the INA, thereby securing a truly unified government with all major players obtaining some positions of power. Just what final concession will be given to Maliki to get him to come over to the Kurd/Iraqiya list is not yet clear, but I believe that it will happen.

Now, regarding timing we have some indications that this will all wrap up fairly soon, IMO. As you all know, Al-Sistani, the cleric, remains in the background as a threat to the secularists to get this process done within the legal framework (by July 14).

However, at the same time we have seen that the G20 is interested in a more restrictive "global time frame" due to the economic crisis in the world. We read yesterday that France is now ready to explode. Also we see that Germany is ready to leave the European Community and go back to the Deutch Mark. And we also now have indications that China is in deep financial troubles, as is Japan.

Therefore, IMO, this will not be allowed to drag out to the 14th of July, and then some time after. The situation is too critical worldwide for this to be delayed any farther.

I think it is a safe conclusion, therefore, to see the RV/RI come in the next day or so and that it will have been coordinated with China and several other countries to RV at the same time. This single event will bring a huge breath of "fresh air" into the world economic situation. To delay will only cause other countries in this "house of cards" to collapse into a pile of flattened cards on the table of the world's economy.

I hope that this helps you all. I also hope that my analysis is RIGHT!

Of course, I could be wrong.

Steve

[lgraham]

Thanks Ron for the post. Where did Obama say that he would reduce the U.S. debt in 3 years. I don't believe this

Lgraham

[Linda]

Thank you for the post Ron....have a blessed day....

[Cyn]

It was in his final statement to the press after the G20 Meeting on Sunday.

Go RV!!!!

[carlablum]

It was in his final statement to the press after the G20 Meeting on Sunday.

Go RV!!!!

I read it also but I can't find the thread it was in!!

[justin88]

Here is the article it was stated in http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/business/global/29summit.html?src=busln

[inmemoryofrob]

Thanks for the post Ron! And it would not have been Obama's doing. 3 years or not, Lgraham. Bush put this into works a long time ago, and you can bet O will take the credit!

Either way, let's hope it gets done.

"Maliki through out a "bone" to Allawi a few days ago"

Gotta think E knows a little bit more about spelling than that? maybe he used a dictaphone! lol

[lgraham]

I read it also but I can't find the thread it was in!!

Carla....I want to believe this. But I watch and listen to alot of news and this should have been significant. I am not saying that it absolutely did not happen. But let's try to find a link or something. Because he should have been questioned after making a statement like this

All the best

Lgraham

[rj-01]

"Of course, I could be wrong."

Are you kidding me ? LOL. These guys have been wrong so may times it's laughable.

I read these threads for the entertainment value only. And forget about Frank. Without the secret decoder ring, I can't follow anything he says.

I'll stick to strait forward, plain talking and easy to understand Sonny and Adam when I want to trust in "news"...

What a chuckle... "Of course, I could be wrong."

[ronscarpa]

Thanks Ron for the post. Where did Obama say that he would reduce the U.S. debt in 3 years. I don't believe this

Lgraham

Thank you for the post Ron....have a blessed day....

Thanks for the post Ron! And it would not have been Obama's doing. 3 years or not, Lgraham. Bush put this into works a long time ago, and you can bet O will take the credit!

Either way, let's hope it gets done.

"Maliki through out a "bone" to Allawi a few days ago"

Gotta think E knows a little bit more about spelling than that? maybe he used a dictaphone! lol

Thanks for your posts, (+'s) and remarks.

Be Blessed,

RON

[lgraham]

Thanks for the post Ron! And it would not have been Obama's doing. 3 years or not, Lgraham. Bush put this into works a long time ago, and you can bet O will take the credit!

Either way, let's hope it gets done.

"Maliki through out a "bone" to Allawi a few days ago"

Gotta think E knows a little bit more about spelling than that? maybe he used a dictaphone! lol

Inmemory..... I would completely agree with you if the Obama statement is a fact. I just would like to see it. As a matter of fact. When this RV/RI occurs the entire world will owe G.W.B. and our military an apology and a thank you for saving the economies of the world with their commitment and sacrifice.

All the best

Lgraham

[justin88]

Carla....I want to believe this. But I watch and listen to alot of news and this should have been significant. I am not saying that it absolutely did not happen. But let's try to find a link or something. Because he should have been questioned after making a statement like this

All the best

Lgraham

I already posted the link but i guess you didnt read it here is the link on the g20 stuff http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/business/global/29summit.html?src=busln

[Drez]

Thanks for the post, hope your right with a RV in the next few days.

[SuperFlyJr]

Thanks Ron for the post. Where did Obama say that he would reduce the U.S. debt in 3 years. I don't believe this

This keeps being misquoted. Obama said he would reduce the U.S. DEFICIT in 3 years, not the debt. All that means is that he will stop spending more than he takes in, i.e. live on a budget like the rest of us have to do. (What a concept!) The opposite of deficit is surplus, not debt-free. Thus, I think this has nothing to do with the RV. We'll still have trillions in dollars of debt in 3 years, but hopefully we'll stop deficit-spending and begin moving into a surplus which will start to reduce the debt. (Although, I doubt that's possible given Obama's socialistic agenda and policies...)

I hope Enorrste knows the difference between deficit and debt but it sure doesn't seem like he, or many other "gurus", have a clue when it comes to basic economics. They just throw out random news bits that confirm their suspicions, hopes, and "intel"...

[Joe P]

"Of course, I could be wrong."

Are you kidding me ? LOL. These guys have been wrong so may times it's laughable.

I read these threads for the entertainment value only. And forget about Frank. Without the secret decoder ring, I can't follow anything he says.

I'll stick to strait forward, plain talking and easy to understand Sonny and Adam when I want to trust in "news"...

What a chuckle... "Of course, I could be wrong."

Since your bashing...let's bash you. Have you ever had an individual thought of your own, because your comment is nothing more than a regurgitation of others on this site? Have you done any personal research from Nahrain, UN, IMF, WTO and countless other sites to determine the information on your very own? Perhaps they are sheppards? Absolutely everything Steve wrote is logical and thought through (not counting the one fella whose only comment was a friggin' misspelling sans the intelligent perspective provided). Appreciate perspectives. Appreciate ALL the people like Steve, Sonny, Medic, Mailmail, Scooter, Groovgal, Frank, Terryk, Adam, Ganganks, Kaperoni, Brietling, villageidoit, and others are doing all the heavy lifting for this speculation.

I personally am fed up with everyone who continue to bash the 'three amigos' and Frank. Maybe the general public should make it a personal point to bash everyone who bashes any of those listed above. This has got to stop!!!

Without them we wouldn't read chats. We NEED everyone's thoughts regardless if we agree.

Love ya -- GO RV!!!

me

[Kimjackie]

Thanks Ron for the post. Where did Obama say that he would reduce the U.S. debt in 3 years. I don't believe this

Lgraham

Edited June 30, 2010 by Kimjackie

[Motorco]

What obama actually said...was he would 1/2 the debt in three years...I watched it.

[hot2bewe]

Much of what he said is true. France has been hiding their problems and the EU has been hiding everyones problems. Germany was the only smart one of the bunch. Their citizens are screaming to get out of the Euro as they see their economy being brought down by all the other careless nations. Japan 0% rates for over 20 years, enough said. China is hurting as their citizens are starting to stand up for themselves, it's only a matter of time before their pay raises and they lose their competetive advantage. I almost have to agree with everything he said in this statement and for me to agree with him that's pretty good. Good post Ron keep it up.

[eastcreek]

Since your bashing...let's bash you. Have you ever had an individual thought of your own, because your comment is nothing more than a regurgitation of others on this site? Have you done any personal research from Nahrain, UN, IMF, WTO and countless other sites to determine the information on your very own? Perhaps they are sheppards? Absolutely everything Steve wrote is logical and thought through (not counting the one fella whose only comment was a friggin' misspelling sans the intelligent perspective provided). Appreciate perspectives. Appreciate ALL the people like Steve, Sonny, Medic, Mailmail, Scooter, Groovgal, Frank, Terryk, Adam, Ganganks, Kaperoni, Brietling, villageidoit, and others are doing all the heavy lifting for this speculation.

I personally am fed up with everyone who continue to bash the 'three amigos' and Frank. Maybe the general public should make it a personal point to bash everyone who bashes any of those listed above. This has got to stop!!!

Without them we wouldn't read chats. We NEED everyone's thoughts regardless if we agree.

Love ya -- GO RV!!!

me

Absolutely GREAT post, Joe P. Bashing is a complete waste of someone's energy, and definitely a waste of my time. Stay positive or sell out and be on your way !

[Sean M. Scott.]

Job Well Done Ron, Excellent Post Mate, (Cheers), Oh, and carry~On...

[inmemoryofrob]

"Absolutely everything Steve wrote is logical and thought through (not counting the one fella whose only comment was a friggin' misspelling sans the intelligent perspective provided). Appreciate perspectives."

OK, 1st thing....I'm not a fella, but a girlie! Ha! 2nd, I love reading all the perspectives. 3rd, if was a funny typo, so giggle and move on.

At least you prefaced yours by saying you were bashing to begin with!

"Inmemory..... I would completely agree with you if the Obama statement is a fact. I just would like to see it. As a matter of fact. When this RV/RI occurs the entire world will owe G.W.B. and our military an apology and a thank you for saving the economies of the world with their commitment and sacrifice."

Nicely said. I would like to see some redemption go his way, too!

[Captjohn]

Enorrste: My Take on "Where We Are" as of 6/30/2010

Posted on zzz

Orig. Post: by Enorrste on CC

There is a great deal of news and some definite "movement" now as the pressure continues to be placed on Iraq to get its house in order. Here is a review of where I see the situation as of today.

The G20 meeting had as its agenda the "world financial crisis, exchange rates in the Middle East and exchange rates in the Far East." This, then, is the backdrop for all discussions moving forward, IMO. Clearly the Iraqi situation has moved from a "local" phenomenon to an "international" phenomenon. I tend to agree with TerryK that this coming RV/RI will involve several countries at the same time. I also agree that there will not be an opportunity to "double dip".

The pressure on Iraq is now immense. It appears to me that Obama and Geitner have let the cat out of the bag regarding the RV in Iraq. Obama's statement to the effect that he would eliminate the US debt in 3 years can mean only one thing: the RV is truly at our doorstep now. There is no other "vehicle" that could make elimination of our debt possible other than the RV.

As I've stated many times in chat and on posts, the RV will turn out to be the single biggest economic event in the history of the planet. TerryK and I have often used the phrase "reboot the world economy" (RV4Me333 has also used this phrase as well). It summarizes quickly exactly how powerful this event will be. The RV will "fill up" the coffers of many countries in he world, allowing them the freedom to reduce their debts and at the same time begin rebuilding the world economy. I've also stated before that I believe that many underdeveloped economies also are holding smaller amounts of IQD which will help them "reboot" as well.

The short term (2 to 4 years) affect will be a great boost in the world economic situation. Trade will increase and factories will begin hiring again and producing at greater and greater capacity. The bloated inventory of homes in the US will be snatched up by "cash" buyers in many cases, but also by regular home buyers as their economic situation improves. We should see a real boost in the attitude of the people in the short term. In another post I will present another scenario that is not as bright, especially for the longer term. However, this is enough for now.

Regarding the internal situation in Iraq and the events that will enfold to get us to the magic RV/RI event, I'd like to summarize for you all where I believe we are and where this is heading. I will also try to put some time parameters on my comments.

As you all know there are 4 main political factions: the Kurdish Alliance, Iraqiya (Allawi), State of Law (Maliki), and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA, led by Jafaari and Mahdi). You also know that on June 11 the State of Law joined with the INA to form a super coalition called the National Alliance (NA).

You also know that Iraqiya has joined with the Kurdish Alliance so that now there are two major coalitions sparring to be allowed to form the new government. Allawi is insisting on his right under the constitution to be the first to attempt to form a government. On the other side the NA is now saying that the Court's interpretation of Article 76 of the Constitution gives them the right to make the first attempt. This COULD be a problem as we approach the mandated July 14 deadline for the formation of the government.

However, we are seeing cracks in the structure of the NA. Here are the issues. First, the Sadrist faction of the INA has stated in no unclear terms that Maliki will not be allowed to run for a second term. He has since been backed by Jafaari in that view. Therefore, up until today, the overall NA has no clear candidate for the PM slot. Maliki, of course, believes that he has the "right" to be the nominee since he is the current office holder. However, we now see, just today, that the NA is moving ahead WITHOUT Maliki and that they are ready to announce their candidate tomorrow. The candidate will almost certainly be Jafaari, but might be Mahdi. In any case, by law they have to have a candidate before going in front of parliament.

The result of this "internal struggle" in the NA is that it is about to collapse. Maliki is very frustrated at his inability to secure his position as the nominee for the PM position from within the NA. The result is that Maliki, seeing the handwriting on the wall, so to speak, has now begun to make overtures to Allawi in an attempt to retain a position of some power in the newly formed government.

Now we move to the other "super coalition". The Kurds have made their position clear in the last couple of days: they want to hold the position of President of the Republic and won't accept either of the other two presidencies. Talibani, a Kurd, currently holds that position and would, presumably, remain in that slot. This could present a problem for Allawi as he continues to negotiate with Maliki. Clearly both men want the PM position, but Maliki is not in a controlling role at this point. So the question is this: what can Allawi offer to Maliki that will cause Maliki to leave the NA and join in the Kurd/Iraqiya super coalition?

The answer is that Maliki would have to accept one of the other presidencies. Neither of these is as powerful as the Presidency of the Republic which Talabani now holds.

Allawi then has to determine whether he can offer Maliki the position Talabani now holds without losing the Kurds entirely. I suspect that he won't be able to do that. At the same time I don't think that Maliki is interested in being the President of the Parliament. However, he might accept the position as President of the Government. In this way he would remain near the helm of power.

Maliki through out a "bone" to Allawi a few days ago, stating that he would even accept a position as "Vice Premier" as long as he also received the control of six of the key ministries. The ministries that he wanted to control are very big in the new economic reality of Iraq, so I doubt that Allawi took this seriously.

So as of today we see that they are very close but still at somewhat of an impasse. The NA believes that it now is ready to move forward with Jafaari or Mahdi as their candidate and will probably press for their right to form the government based on the court's ruling.

At the same time, however, Allawi has been makin back door deals and is close to closing a deal with Maliki. Should he succeed in this then the NA will collapse and Allawi will have the sole right to form the new government, since at the election he received the most seats (91). I predict, as I have now for several weeks, that Allawi will succeed and because of this a Constitutional Crisis will be avoided.

Furthermore, I believe that Allawi will offer the other 2 presidencies to Jafaari and Mahdi of the INA, thereby securing a truly unified government with all major players obtaining some positions of power. Just what final concession will be given to Maliki to get him to come over to the Kurd/Iraqiya list is not yet clear, but I believe that it will happen.

Now, regarding timing we have some indications that this will all wrap up fairly soon, IMO. As you all know, Al-Sistani, the cleric, remains in the background as a threat to the secularists to get this process done within the legal framework (by July 14).

However, at the same time we have seen that the G20 is interested in a more restrictive "global time frame" due to the economic crisis in the world. We read yesterday that France is now ready to explode. Also we see that Germany is ready to leave the European Community and go back to the Deutch Mark. And we also now have indications that China is in deep financial troubles, as is Japan.

Therefore, IMO, this will not be allowed to drag out to the 14th of July, and then some time after. The situation is too critical worldwide for this to be delayed any farther.

I think it is a safe conclusion, therefore, to see the RV/RI come in the next day or so and that it will have been coordinated with China and several other countries to RV at the same time. This single event will bring a huge breath of "fresh air" into the world economic situation. To delay will only cause other countries in this "house of cards" to collapse into a pile of flattened cards on the table of the world's economy.

I hope that this helps you all. I also hope that my analysis is RIGHT!

Of course, I could be wrong.

Steve

Steve, thank you for a very reasoned and articulate summary and analysis of events driving Iraqi politics. Of course, no one knows what will happen, but you make a very compelling argument that a world in economic crisis cannot afford to wait. Nice to know we are not alone in our frustration over the RV/RI taking so long to happen.

[lgraham]

I already posted the link but i guess you didnt read it here is the link on the g20 stuff http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/business/global/29summit.html?src=busln

Justin88.....Thank you, I did miss your first post. I was going to speculate that he said deficits and not the debt. That is why I wanted to see it. Superfly has already responded as I would have....But he beat me to it. Great job Superfly! I believe Enorrste has a good grasp on economics and his analysis is appreciated by me. He puts alot of time and thought into his commentary. However, when he makes absolute comments like this or his previous wacky predictions....he loses some of the credibility that he tries to establish. I do still enjoy reading his thoughts much like I enjoy so many others here. You know, the great ones like Scooter,automag,drox,doc31,chief V,Ronscarpa,cabletech911,Sonny1 and Adam as well....Don't mean to leave anyone out here, this was just right off the top of my head. My thanks to everyone that contributes here. It means you are engaged. Thanks everyone!

All the best

Lgraham

[Havefaith]

This is amazing!!!!! Go RV!!!!!!

[SimoneC777]

Enorrste: My Take on "Where We Are" as of 6/30/2010

Posted on zzz

Orig. Post: by Enorrste on CC

There is a great deal of news and some definite "movement" now as the pressure continues to be placed on Iraq to get its house in order. Here is a review of where I see the situation as of today.

The G20 meeting had as its agenda the "world financial crisis, exchange rates in the Middle East and exchange rates in the Far East." This, then, is the backdrop for all discussions moving forward, IMO. Clearly the Iraqi situation has moved from a "local" phenomenon to an "international" phenomenon. I tend to agree with TerryK that this coming RV/RI will involve several countries at the same time. I also agree that there will not be an opportunity to "double dip".

The pressure on Iraq is now immense. It appears to me that Obama and Geitner have let the cat out of the bag regarding the RV in Iraq. Obama's statement to the effect that he would eliminate the US debt in 3 years can mean only one thing: the RV is truly at our doorstep now. There is no other "vehicle" that could make elimination of our debt possible other than the RV.

As I've stated many times in chat and on posts, the RV will turn out to be the single biggest economic event in the history of the planet. TerryK and I have often used the phrase "reboot the world economy" (RV4Me333 has also used this phrase as well). It summarizes quickly exactly how powerful this event will be. The RV will "fill up" the coffers of many countries in he world, allowing them the freedom to reduce their debts and at the same time begin rebuilding the world economy. I've also stated before that I believe that many underdeveloped economies also are holding smaller amounts of IQD which will help them "reboot" as well.

The short term (2 to 4 years) affect will be a great boost in the world economic situation. Trade will increase and factories will begin hiring again and producing at greater and greater capacity. The bloated inventory of homes in the US will be snatched up by "cash" buyers in many cases, but also by regular home buyers as their economic situation improves. We should see a real boost in the attitude of the people in the short term. In another post I will present another scenario that is not as bright, especially for the longer term. However, this is enough for now.

Regarding the internal situation in Iraq and the events that will enfold to get us to the magic RV/RI event, I'd like to summarize for you all where I believe we are and where this is heading. I will also try to put some time parameters on my comments.

As you all know there are 4 main political factions: the Kurdish Alliance, Iraqiya (Allawi), State of Law (Maliki), and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA, led by Jafaari and Mahdi). You also know that on June 11 the State of Law joined with the INA to form a super coalition called the National Alliance (NA).

You also know that Iraqiya has joined with the Kurdish Alliance so that now there are two major coalitions sparring to be allowed to form the new government. Allawi is insisting on his right under the constitution to be the first to attempt to form a government. On the other side the NA is now saying that the Court's interpretation of Article 76 of the Constitution gives them the right to make the first attempt. This COULD be a problem as we approach the mandated July 14 deadline for the formation of the government.

However, we are seeing cracks in the structure of the NA. Here are the issues. First, the Sadrist faction of the INA has stated in no unclear terms that Maliki will not be allowed to run for a second term. He has since been backed by Jafaari in that view. Therefore, up until today, the overall NA has no clear candidate for the PM slot. Maliki, of course, believes that he has the "right" to be the nominee since he is the current office holder. However, we now see, just today, that the NA is moving ahead WITHOUT Maliki and that they are ready to announce their candidate tomorrow. The candidate will almost certainly be Jafaari, but might be Mahdi. In any case, by law they have to have a candidate before going in front of parliament.

The result of this "internal struggle" in the NA is that it is about to collapse. Maliki is very frustrated at his inability to secure his position as the nominee for the PM position from within the NA. The result is that Maliki, seeing the handwriting on the wall, so to speak, has now begun to make overtures to Allawi in an attempt to retain a position of some power in the newly formed government.

Now we move to the other "super coalition". The Kurds have made their position clear in the last couple of days: they want to hold the position of President of the Republic and won't accept either of the other two presidencies. Talibani, a Kurd, currently holds that position and would, presumably, remain in that slot. This could present a problem for Allawi as he continues to negotiate with Maliki. Clearly both men want the PM position, but Maliki is not in a controlling role at this point. So the question is this: what can Allawi offer to Maliki that will cause Maliki to leave the NA and join in the Kurd/Iraqiya super coalition?

The answer is that Maliki would have to accept one of the other presidencies. Neither of these is as powerful as the Presidency of the Republic which Talabani now holds.

Allawi then has to determine whether he can offer Maliki the position Talabani now holds without losing the Kurds entirely. I suspect that he won't be able to do that. At the same time I don't think that Maliki is interested in being the President of the Parliament. However, he might accept the position as President of the Government. In this way he would remain near the helm of power.

Maliki through out a "bone" to Allawi a few days ago, stating that he would even accept a position as "Vice Premier" as long as he also received the control of six of the key ministries. The ministries that he wanted to control are very big in the new economic reality of Iraq, so I doubt that Allawi took this seriously.

So as of today we see that they are very close but still at somewhat of an impasse. The NA believes that it now is ready to move forward with Jafaari or Mahdi as their candidate and will probably press for their right to form the government based on the court's ruling.

At the same time, however, Allawi has been makin back door deals and is close to closing a deal with Maliki. Should he succeed in this then the NA will collapse and Allawi will have the sole right to form the new government, since at the election he received the most seats (91). I predict, as I have now for several weeks, that Allawi will succeed and because of this a Constitutional Crisis will be avoided.

Furthermore, I believe that Allawi will offer the other 2 presidencies to Jafaari and Mahdi of the INA, thereby securing a truly unified government with all major players obtaining some positions of power. Just what final concession will be given to Maliki to get him to come over to the Kurd/Iraqiya list is not yet clear, but I believe that it will happen.

Now, regarding timing we have some indications that this will all wrap up fairly soon, IMO. As you all know, Al-Sistani, the cleric, remains in the background as a threat to the secularists to get this process done within the legal framework (by July 14).

However, at the same time we have seen that the G20 is interested in a more restrictive "global time frame" due to the economic crisis in the world. We read yesterday that France is now ready to explode. Also we see that Germany is ready to leave the European Community and go back to the Deutch Mark. And we also now have indications that China is in deep financial troubles, as is Japan.

Therefore, IMO, this will not be allowed to drag out to the 14th of July, and then some time after. The situation is too critical worldwide for this to be delayed any farther.

I think it is a safe conclusion, therefore, to see the RV/RI come in the next day or so and that it will have been coordinated with China and several other countries to RV at the same time. This single event will bring a huge breath of "fresh air" into the world economic situation. To delay will only cause other countries in this "house of cards" to collapse into a pile of flattened cards on the table of the world's economy.

I hope that this helps you all. I also hope that my analysis is RIGHT!

Of course, I could be wrong.

Steve

Thank you Enorreste, I think your opinions are quite logical.Now with so many countries needing this relief, it seems that the sooner the RI/RV the better. Let's pray.