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What rate do you think the dinar will RV to?

Trimark

By Trimark,
in RV & Dinar Questions

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161 members have voted

  1. 1. What rate do you think the dinar will RV to?

    • .01 - .75
      13
    • .76 - $1.25
      34
    • $1.26 - $2.00
      28
    • $2.01 - $2.50
      21
    • $2.51 - $3.00
      24
    • $3.00 - $3.50
      28
    • $3.51 +
      13

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Trimark Newbie

Trimark

Posted
Posted (edited)

The gurus all seem to be throwing out different possible rates that the dinar might RV to and these rates seem to run from small to big. I thought it might be interesting to see what people on the forum think it will RV to. So, what do YOU think it will RV to? :)

Edited by Trimark
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fsavahge Newbie

fsavahge

Posted
Posted

I think that people may be voting more for what they wish than what they really think it is going to RV. Including myself.

The gurus all seem to be throwing out different possible rates that the dinar might RV to and these rates seem to run from small to big. I thought it might be interesting to see what people on the forum think it will RV to. So, what do YOU think it will RV to? :)

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Trimark Newbie

Trimark

Posted
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Posted

Maybe the gurus are doing the same thing. :lol:

It's interesting that the responses are all over the board. There is no clear cut winner ... yet.

I feel like a little kid waiting for Christmas.

You know it's coming but you don't really know how long it will take for it to get here and you know you are going to get something from Santa but you don't know exactly what that gift will be.

You think and hope and truly believe that it's going to be the best, most amazing and BIGGEST gift ever. You've reasoned it out with your friends so it all makes perfect sense why you should get that big gift and spend hours daydreaming of how great your life will be once you get the gift but there's still a teeny-tiny, itty-bitty part of you that's worried Santa could bring you a lump of coal or something boring like socks.

Here's hoping for a very merry Christmas that comes soon. Ho, ho, ho! :D

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keepmwlknfny Newbie

keepmwlknfny

Posted
Posted

Most likely a slow and gradual rise so that they can control any inflation or any other issues that may arrive....you see how long they have been studying this issue and they dont want to raise inflation to high rates at any cost....could be a jump to a low exchange rate and then let market and oil drive it up slowly....bottom line is they could come out at whatever they want....they could come low and take it slow or they could come high if they feel they could control the inflation.....an no a low RV rate wont have big invesors eating up Iraq....all that is rubbish....the biggest investors are in this now...they are the ones that have 100 mil dinar and more! You think a crap ton of people are going to buy up that much dinar at a rate of lets say 20 cents? dont think so....how many of you would have the millions you have if it were 20 cents to the dollar? I know i wouldnt.....so the notion that speculators will buy up ALL the currency is laughable....we are those speculators....and the amount of people that actually might have a couple of million dollars that they would be willing to blow on dinar is such a small percentile that they would never be able to buy up as much dinar as we have bought in total now......

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Trimark Newbie

Trimark

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Once the dinar is a tradeable currency a lot more investors/hedge funds/etc. will be willing to take a chance on it. Right now anything could happen with the currency. Once it becomes a tradeable currency many of the people that were holding back will jump in. Iraq has very little debt, a LOT in foreign reserves, and amazing amounts of natural resources.

I don't know what the rate will be but I do know that if it's too low people won't be turning in their dinars but rather more people and institutional investors will be buying the dinars up.

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keepmwlknfny Newbie

keepmwlknfny

Posted
Posted

Once the dinar is a tradeable currency a lot more investors/hedge funds/etc. will be willing to take a chance on it. Right now anything could happen with the currency. Once it becomes a tradeable currency many of the people that were holding back will jump in. Iraq has very little debt, a LOT in foreign reserves, and amazing amounts of natural resources.

I don't know what the rate will be but I do know that if it's too low people won't be turning in their dinars but rather more people and institutional investors will be buying the dinars up.

Once it is a tradeable currency yes some will be more willing to spend.....but once again its a small percentile....hedge funds are usually only availible by the very wealthy which is a small percentile of people....even then the amount that will be purchased will be NOTHING close to what we are buying in quanity now....the amount of people who have millions sitting around to blow on a currency in hopes of it going up some is ridiculously small.....most financial advisors want nothing to do with it and are scaring people away from it regardless of the chances of profit that are availible....right now is the best time to buy the dinar because its at a very low price and you have the biggest chance for a return profit now.....waiting till its RV'd even at a low number cuts profit margins drastically and its still not even guaranteed to jump over 3 dollars....nothing is promised to us or guaranteed just like any other risk you take.....but i can promise you that you wont find as many people as there are on these dinar websites that have millions of dollars to blow on dinar to the point to where it will hurt Iraq......no way possible!!! even now with people all over holding upwards of 50 million dinar and more we are still a spec of dirt on their windshield.....the possibilities of them coming out low is reality, and it wont hurt them at all....ANY RV at all will only help them and move them forward.....

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lost one Newbie

lost one

Posted
Posted

I don't no what will come out as, But my best guess would be at 2.25. It would be the best for Iraq and the best chance of getting their denoms back in country. Their isn't an investor in the world that wouldn't cash in at that rate and run. And they all know, that their is no real investment in Iraq, because it is going to go to h...ll in a hand basket once Iraq starts making money off the oil. It is to unstable in that region, and the countries around them are to greedy to let it slip away to US or China or any other non middle eastern country.They can't afford to, This is all they have. Don't get me wrong, I wish the best for all people, and wish they can all get along and prospher, and I pray to god that I am wrong.

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wallstreet1977 Newbie

wallstreet1977

Posted
Posted

Once the dinar is a tradeable currency a lot more investors/hedge funds/etc. will be willing to take a chance on it. Right now anything could happen with the currency. Once it becomes a tradeable currency many of the people that were holding back will jump in. Iraq has very little debt, a LOT in foreign reserves, and amazing amounts of natural resources.

I don't know what the rate will be but I do know that if it's too low people won't be turning in their dinars but rather more people and institutional investors will be buying the dinars up.

Does anyone know when the last time the Dinar was a tradable currency on the foreign exchange?

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Doc31 Newbie

Doc31

Posted
Posted

I am reposting this as it includes a statistical analysis of the probabilities concerning RI/RV (links following). It is actually two of my posts with a post from lgraham in between. Obviously, we know more about certain things than we did in April so no need to correct them (please) ... it's just a peek at the numbers

I am not surprised that (at present) the poll is a virtual "dead heat".

I have always been an RV guy ... mainly because of the following. When someone tells us that the IQD "sounds too good to be true" we always point them at Kuwait. But that's the last time we want to discuss Kuwait. However, to me, it's our template of sorts (yes, I know about Germany, etc. etc). And that is why RV makes sense to me. However, through posts on DV and elsewhere, I've heard 3 separate arguements for RI ... one mathematical, one from an economics standpoint (also mathematical), and one (almost) philosophical.

A week or so ago a post was made (on the NEWS side of DV) disclosing that Iraq's oil money, in it's entirety, was not being utilized for the good of Iraq but was being deposited in a bank in the US (New York I believe) at the rate of $1B - $6B per month and if you did the math on the time frame it was about 72 months worth which made their deposit (speculatively) a minimum of $72B. We also noted that the pipeline is on and pumping NOW and that they had increased barrel output etc. so we believed that it might even be higher than the $6B/month that was disclosed.

We went on to show, with the aforementioned math, how it WAS possible to RI ... supporting one of the above arguements ... speculative, mind you, but possible. We based our suppositions on the minimum of $72B. The problem was that we don't actually know how much is in that fund ... UNTIL NOW!

CAPTMED posted an article in NEWS today entitled "69th Session of UNCC Governing Council" with a link: http://www.uncc.ch/p...l/69%20open.pdf

The UNCC fields claims against those in Chapt 7. In this article it discusses how many claims were filed by individuals and countries against Iraq and what damages were actual (vs claimed) as determined by the UNCC. It tells what the total bill is, how much has been paid, and how it is being paid.

Now here is where it gets interesting. On page two of the document it discloses that $28.9B has been paid and that it is coming from the oil revenues at a prescribed rate of 5% of the oil revenues. With a little math utilizing ratios we can calculate that if $28.9B is 5% then there must be a 100% which is the figure that we were needing in the aforementioned discussion and that is HOW MUCH IS IN THE FUND IN NY?

And it is (mathematically) $578B

Folks, I'm not telling you that they are going to RI ... I'm telling you that since 90% of the IQD sold belongs to countries (calculated by a retired State Dept Economist and posted on the NEWS site) that by IMF law they are required to hold a percentage of their standard trade with Iraq (meaning that it won't be cashed in all at once, but utilized for trade, and still held as per the IMF requirement) and that only 10% is held by folks like us who probably would cash in on RI ... together with the tons of gold that will be released upon lifting of Chapt 7 ... RI is actually feasible.

Don't get me wrong I'm still an RV guy. Statistics tell me that 93% of the RV possibilities hit between $.86 and $2.10. That is simply too high to ignore. 60% of that at $.86 to $1.20. Another 21% between $1.21 and $1.86. and the last 12% between $1.87 and $2.10. Remember this though, as I always tell my IQD group that “that and $1.79 will get you a cup of coffee at 7/11!” IT”S JUST MY OPINION BASED ON NUMBERS (but it is pretty well sorted out).

My own personal favorite is whatever the EURO is trading for on the day it RV’s.

Last Novemeber when we got all excited …you remember, when we saw Baghdad bank rates set IQD at $1.49 for days during business hours. Guess what? That was the exact exchange rate of the USD vs EUR for those days! Today it is trading at $1.33. So, if it RV’d tomorrow my personal expectations would be $1.33. This would peg it superior to the dollar and even with the Euro (which many expect to be named the world’s next reserve currency if we don’t get our financial act together and quit printing money as per our new leadership … ahhhhh, I digress … and the European community gets Portugal, Greece and Spain straightened out or ousted). It would be a brilliant strategy placing it amidst the global currencies … above the Aussie’s and the Kiwis (which in my opinion it should be with it’s oil and agricultural prospects) … and well below the British Pound. It’s kind of a Goldilocks position. Not too high and not too low … just right.

Please don’t pretend that I’m foolish enough to wish for an RV over an RI. And please don’t shoot the messenger. I was just trying to tie two posts together and put some sense to all of this.

By the way many thanks to CAPTMED for his post to work off of.

Peace

Doc31

PS if you don’t agree … no need to bash … I realize it’s going to come out at what it’s going to come out at … and I will figure a way to ride it up higher still … just kicking around some numbers here and it’s why I changed the post to the rumor side of DV

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lgraham, on 27 April 2010 - 12:21 PM, said:

Doc31,

Great job on this. I agree that the amount in this federal reserve account is huge and will be returned to the CBI by the end of this year. Here is a number that you might have left out of your calculation. The 5% is accurate. But, that does not mean that the other 95% goes to this account. It is my understanding that 30% of these revenues go the the cost of operating the government. Therefore run those numbers again with 65% going into the fund. Thanks for a great post

Lgraham

My understanding is that the poverty in Iraq is the direct result of the fact that 30% going to the cost of operating government is NOT true as much of it should be going to programs to help their citizens (from the governmental departments)... however, from my seat in SW FL (LOL) ... I have no way of ascertaining which is true. So, if we assume that the 30% plus the 5% are NOT draws of drawn down funds (I hope you followed) and we call it 35% from oil profits leaving 65% ... there is still $375.78 Billion in a New York bank!

Part of the reason that I personally don't believe the 30% is being used is that the difference is about $202 Billion! That's a lot of pocket change to operate such a backwards, low operational level, governmental operation. Although, I do understand that there is rampant mis-use of funds ... who knows

Anyway, there are the two versions ... take your pick ... either is huge. $578 Billion or $375.78 Billion

Peace

Doc31

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