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Trimark

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Trimark last won the day on July 22 2010

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  1. I haven't followed this recently like I used to so sorry if this has been covered - at one time there was talk of government employees being paid by card. Does anyone know if they are? That would eliminate a ton of cash and hurry the transition to an electronic society.
  2. Cool. I'll check it out. Thanks.
  3. Any chance someone could message me about this using the forum? I haven't heard back from anyone. Thanks.
  4. I check that every day. Nada. Thanks.
  5. I sent an email two days ago and never heard back. Can someone please help so I can renew? Thanks.
  6. I received a renewal notice via email the other day and tried to pay but after entering my credit card information and clicking submit received a technical error message. I sent an email to Support via the link on that page with the exact error I received but never heard back. Can someone please check and see if my card was charged and if not give me a link to a page where the credit card submission works? Thanks.
  7. That's the part I'm stuck on too. As mentioned I think it will come out at or above $1 to start but a part of me wonders if they might actually come out at $3. The reason I say that is because I think the $3+ rate is what they ultimately would like to get to. IF that is true - and that's a big if - then how realistic is it for them to go from a $1 starting point to $3+? I don't know a lot about how currency works but it seems that there aren't huge $2+ swings in the value of a country's currency over time. It seems that a lot of currencies stay within a certain range and just go up or down a bit over time not huge amounts. That makes me think that if their end result is above $3 then coming out at $3 gives them room to grow into that end result over time. Again, I have no idea. I'm just thinking out loud.
  8. Trinity I think you and I agree. I agree that they are going to move to a flexible regime. I also think that they are going to allow it to float (sorry I didn't state it very well earlier when I said it wouldn't float, I actually meant that I don't think it will float starting at a low rate.) Where I'm not sure we agree is at what starting point they will start that float. I just can't see how it would benefit them at all to start at the current rate of 1166. It just makes no sense to me. I could very well be wrong but for a lot of reasons it just makes more sense to me for them to come out at or above $1 in a round number that is easy for people to figure in relation to the dollar.
  9. It doesn't have to happen to have a float. The trillions going back in will be a result of the low value. The Kurds and the ministries will receive money very, very shortly from the budget. If the value is low at that point then trillions of dinars will be dumped back in the market. If the rate changes and starts at a high number billions, not trillions, will be distributed.
  10. Hi Trinity. I am as far away from being an economist as one can get. I just try to think very logically and from an everyday person perspective. I skimmed the article you provided. To me, I read it that increasing flexibility in exchange rate management works better than a float which Egypt and Iran have. To me, a float will work only if the value starts at above $1. The reason I say that is if it's a low float the trillions of dinars would be released back into the economy. Right now the demand for the dinar is very low by the Iraqi people. At a low value that demand will still be low. The Iraqi people will still want US dollars not seemingly worthless dinars. For the last 10 years the CBI has eliminated the supply of dinars from the Iraqi market. If a supply of dinars goes back out in the market without creating a demand the value will remain low so won't float up. Also, they are trying to make the dinar a reserve currency. Having it start out low and dumping a big supply of dinars back in the market is not going to increase its value and make it attractive as a reserve currency. Plus, there will be a lot of uncertainty to the average Iraqi person as to its value. I thought your post about the float was excellent. I think we both agree that Iraq needs a flexible economic regime. I think we differ on what value that will start at. It just makes more sense to me that if they are going to float they have to come out at $1 or more before the float can start in order to increase the demand for the dinar by the Iraqi people. IMO, I think they will come out at a round number such as $1, $1.50, $2, etc. so that will give them a starting point for the float that makes it easy for the man on the street to figure out the value compared to the dollar, entice the Iraqi people to start using the dinar, use the banking system, etc.
  11. Trinity - I really respect your opinion but I'm having trouble seeing how it can float up for several reasons: 1. They need to release the money from the budget and to the Kurds as soon as possible. With a float from 1166 this will put trillions of dinars back into the economy, trillions they just spent the last 10 years removing. With trillions back in the economy the value of the dinar couldn't be a high value for years. 2. Unless it's a controlled float the value of the dinar would be very uncertain. For example, the folks on Forex could take a small amount and run with it and in the blink of an eye the amount a dinar would be worth could be much more than the CBI anticipates leading to inflation and uncertainty. Also, unless it's a controlled float, from a day to day standpoint the average Iraqi wouldn't know the value of the dinar for basic transactions. Due to the uncertainty of value Iraqis would likely want to hold onto dollars and not use dinars which is not what the CBI wants. 3. If it's a controlled float starting low then it would take a very long time for Iraq to build the dinar value up. If it's a low amount it doesn't encourage Iraqis to use the banks or to switch from the dollar to the dinar. 4. If it was going to float I can't see why they wouldn't have released the money to the Kurds and to the ministries already. 5. If it comes out low and floats up that wouldn't encourage Iraqis to use dinars. It seems they would still want to use dollars. This is Iraq and anything can happen (and probably will) but I just can't see how a float would allow Iraq to get what they want - ie., move to an electronic society, get people to use dinars instead of dollars, get people to put money in the banks, make Iraq a reserve currency throughout the rest of the world, etc.
  12. Thanks Dr J. I value your opinion too so that means a lot to me. There is so much pressure building up in Iraq yet no money is being released. They have to make a change right before or right when the money is released. March 1 makes a great day to make a change.
  13. My thoughts are this is great news for us! The old 50 dinar notes won't work after 2 months but the new, harder to counterfeit 50 notes will. They wouldn't even care about these if they weren't going to be worth more than .05 very soon. Since the old dinar is easy to counterfeit it would be very easy for Iran or Syria to print out tons of these 50 dinar notes and exchange them among people in Iraq which could potentially bring hundreds of millions more into the Iraqi economy than the CBI has planned for which would dilute the value of each real dinar out there and basically screw things up. IF the dinar RVs at least $1 then the bigger bills won't be passed through people on the streets they will be taken to banks which most likely have De La Rue machines and where it's harder to cash in bad money. A 50 though would be exchanged for goods and services among average citizens. By only giving them 2 months to cash them in it isn't a lot of time for a big organization to get a counterfeit operation started. My guess: Saturday is our day and it will be a great one!
  14. I could fit an RV on Thursday into my schedule. I agree there is no way they are going to let anyone know beforehand. That's why I think they need to RV right before the money gets distributed to the ministries. If the money is all small bills then the cat will be out of the bag and it could give someone an advantage. After it's announced officially then they will have about a week to make sure everyone knows about it.
  15. My secret decoder ring broke years ago. I don't have any intel. I just have common sense ...sometimes. Here is what we know: the budget has been published so at some point very soon they will distribute the money to the ministries to distribute for salaries, etc. They said last week in the news that would be done early this week. This will get a lot of money back out into the economy. They can deliver this money in trillions of dinars which would put all the trillions back into the economy that the CBI just spent the last 10 years draining from the economy or they can deliver it in billions via the lower denominations which would mean the value of the dinars would have to change or they could deliver it in US funds which I personally don't think they will do. As soon as the money changes value they need to let people know. Shabibi said years ago that there would be an education campaign to inform people before whatever happens, happens. I want to say he said it while he was in Washington but I can't remember but it was him not some guru. To me, this just means putting it on TV, in the newspaper and trying to get the word out to everyone in Iraq that the money has changed. The dinar was worth less than a penny. Now it's worth X. Yeah, Iraq! It makes sense to let the people know about the change before most of them actually get dinars in their possession which will take a week or so to go from the ministries to actual distribution. Those that have dinars can cash them in at a bank and if they wish deposit the money there. What does Iraq want? They want people to use the dinars instead of dollars. They want to encourage people to use the banks. They want to move Iraq to an electronic society. And they want to do this in as easy and less disruptive way as possible. IMO, making the change as the money goes out fits the bill to help them accomplish this. To me, it's all about the money that is being distributed - if it's trillions it will be years before we see any money from our investment, I think it will be billions because doing that will help accomplish everything they want.
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