2015 Budget - Going to be difficult

[dontlop]

Can't prove it won't

It's the same thing

And they didn't get into trouble for saying the dinar will rv

You know why they got in trouble I've explained it to you

[caz1104]

I've NEVER smoked crack...........................sadly I can't say I'll never smoke it....................things & circumstance change. 

Edited January 17, 2015 by caz1104

[rockfl9]

I just saw someone say Babylon will rise again

Is that fraud ?

Legally , a misstatement . Becomes a FRAUD when something of value changes hands.

[dontlop]

Like what a politition lying then stealing your money ?

Ya they all go to jail for fraud when they collect our tax dollars after they lied to us

[rockfl9]

I can't state it will not revalue. But thats a 2 edged statement . It could go UP or DOWN . Either one is a revalue! We already saw a 2 pip change . could 2 pip for a century??? That's a long wait!

[rockfl9]

Now that they are doing the 1/12 distribution plan, no rush to an approval. Even if the committee delivers the draft next week it will surely go to discussion. They are all getting paid. If they weren't there would be pressure. That will come when there is not enough income to make the payroll. Then they will desperately need the new taxes,tariffs and charges. Maybe even an across the board pay cut!

If they resort to heavy borrowing in dinar , think what that means to the possibility of an RV?

The HCA is a rubber band .. Doesnt solve the problem for the non-oil provinces.

[rockfl9]

What's the holdup? They must unfund some projects that certain provinces/ministries expected. They will fight to keep them. That will prevent quick approval. The search is going to be the compromise that offends the least people.

[dontlop]

Ya the monthly budget

I read that too

So this means we won't have to wait for the new budget to come out to change the exchange rates

I remember in 2013 they said they can't remove three zeros because the budget was already made and was using the current dinar

So now each month the gurus can call a rv until a budget is passed

Then what ?

[dontlop]

Go rv feb 1

March 1

April. 1

May. 1

Ect ect

Gurus passed that opertunity right up

They pretended like they didn't see that article

They were too tied up in the rv to the budget like they do every year

Now they can go rv with black Friday thanksgiving christmas New Years mlk day Easter may 22 june 30 after Ramadan maybe Halloween too and the first of every month

They should be quite busy now

[rockfl9]

The fact is unless the income is much higher OR lower they can get along fine with the 1/12 rule.

The MOF will issue T-Bills for working cash to cover the short term debts.

They might even take the budget apart and enact the projects separately especially the parts that service the nation as a whole e.g. the taxes and tariffs.

[dontlop]

They need a stablized economy to use a budget

They should go month to month and base it on the current Oil price

Until they can develope a private sector economy that's more reliable

Or base the budget on 50 dollars a barrel all the time and use surplus spending when they have a surplus over 50 dollars a barrel

The gurus will eventually realize they got a goldmine of fake predictions now

Soon they will use this as the reason for the monthly budgets , saying their gonna rv that's why they use a monthly budget

It's the only country in the world that uses a monthly budget and everything else they can make up

So for now

Go rv February 1st

They can issue debt to the provinces and that will help the federal govts credit rating

Since all the provinces owe money to the federal govt the federal gift will appear to have many sources of income besides the oil

The debt they issue to the provinces will be assets of the federal govt while the federal govt borrows from central banks around the world till their debts are like the champions usa

If all 19 provinces owe the govt a couple billion dollars then the federal govt appears to be credit worthy

So loan them some dinars

Trillions of dinars

Loan them to each of them equally and make them work off the debts

Hey that's how the good ole usa did it

The federal govt of the usa loaned out money to each state

They did that way back when George Washington was around

When John Adams was trying to borrow money from around the world to finance Americas independence when they beat the British out of here

They loaned the states money to fight the war

Then the other country's asked how they could pay back the loans and they showed their creditors that the states all owed them money as their assets

[rockfl9]

That is what the special committee Abadi has put together is supposed to do. It should keep them paid and fed.

[dontlop]

So print up some dinars and loan them to the provinces and then go to the workd community and borrow more

Once your in debt to the world it's in their interest that you succeed or they won't get paid back

Go debt

Go iraq

Borrow trillions

Put those people into some work clothes and pass a law "no nightgowns "

[rockfl9]

That's what they might do! What do you yhink would do to International value of the dinar? In the crapper!

[dontlop]

Borrowing doesn't hurt the currency as long as the debt is serviced

In other words as long as the interest is paid

The usa doesn't pay off its debt , it just pays the interest

The U.S. treasury rates are what 1/4 %

Let's see a trillion dollars at a quarter percent interest is 2.5 billion dollars a year interest

If iraq central bank got the loan at a quarter percent and loaned it to the govts at 1% they are doing good

Then the govt loans it out to the provinces at 3% that's 30 billion a year interest on a trillion at 3% on money they got for 1% 10 billion a year that the cbi got for 2.5 billion from the us govt at a quarter%

And the wheels start turning

Debt is what makes the world go round

It's what makes you put up with your boss at work

[dontlop]

Question is

When is iraq going to umleash the private sector

Was this entire fiasco a warning shot

Will the iraqi consumers get jobs at Taco Bell and best buy and Walmart at the docks at the railroads at the airports at the warehouses driving trucks jobs at the bakery at the dairy farm at the produce markets

Will the iraqi gdp jump thru the roof or will the govt hold the Iraqis back from the consumer markets

Will they build cars and trucks and excavation equipment

Of will they stick their buts in the air 5 times a day and be poor

Because oil alone isn't going to get it

[rockfl9]

Debt service takes away from investment money. restricts growth of GDP.

What 'private sector" could Iraq have? Utilities are nationalized . oil refining ,ditto. Railroad also.

Rich iraqis are investing outside of the country. Smuggling dollars out to buy real estate in other countries.

Money transfer companies ???/ What will they do??? Send more dollars out of country??? I don't understand why they would allow that?

They could RV but how to get the dollars out?

[dontlop]

Your forgetting what causes the debt that needs the servicing

It's the investment money

The investment money comes first and the servicing of that debt is built into the business platform

It's all in the disapline

[rockfl9]

TRUE

But the investment must return much more than the debt service . 

So build an AvGas refinery and export.

Convert petroleum to plastics and export. 

Build CNG plant (which they plan to do) and export ',.\\

BUT they need them NOW.

[dontlop]

It doesn't need to be much more

Like I explained

If the cbi borrowed a trillion dollars from the us govt at 1/4 % and loaned it to the govt at 1% the cbi is making 7.5 billion dollars

If the govt loans it to the provinces at 2% the govt makes 1% profit or 10 billion dollars

The provincial govt loans it out at 3% they make 10 billion dollars a year

The businesses need to make 9% profit to end up with 6% profit

The monthly installments are built into the business platforms

They just need disapline to stick to the business platform and make sure the money is put in the right places and not in their pockets

Restaurants for example usually stick to food costs at 18% the rest is in service and overhead

Just stay within your means

This is what business managers are taught in college

Stick to the program

Plastics would be good definatly since the oil is plentiful

But they also need modern retail like dollar stores and Walmart type stores

Convienent stores in gas stations

Ice cream stores like Dairy Queen

And sandwich shops and shoe stores

The markets ( bazaars ) are old school

They need car lots and service centers

Tire stores

They need everything like we have

Thousands of them

But instead the polititions will just steal as much as they can and then just flee the country to avoid prosecution

I keep forgetting these are a bunch of tribal lunatics in iraq

[caz1104]

Some of the smartest folks I know at times try to OVERTHINK...................just like some of the less intelligent(dumba*s) OVER SIMPLIFY. IMO at times this comes into play here at DV.

Edited January 23, 2015 by caz1104

[dontlop]

I wonder what the thinking will be for the next decade

There are people who say they will hold their dinar forever and will them to their grandkids so maybe we should talk about the next decade

This should be explained well in advance so people know what they are walkin into

So few funerals from some of the old folks who have been complaining about old age for some time

Another decade we should see a few dropping off

Then the sea Nile who forgot where they hid their dinar or forgot all together that they have dinar

How are we gonna hold ourselves together when we're very old

[rockfl9]

Some of the smartest folks I know at times try to OVERTHINK...................just like some of the less intelligent(dumba*s) OVER SIMPLIFY. IMO at times this comes into play here at DV.

The  only OVERTHINKING I read here is the gurus tying any piece of news to a rate and a date. And the GO RVers gobble it up.

BUT I will simplify. Just give me the facts for HOW a significant revalue CAN happen!

Simply there aren't any.

Edited January 24, 2015 by rockfl9

[rockfl9]

DL:: Read your piece under the Tlar $3+ post.

But 35T dinar (M1) across 35M Iraqis would be 10,000 dinar per. But that doesn't account for the dinar out of  country and the cash in the tills of the businesses.

Considering iraqis don't use plastic or checks as we think , looks normal.

 

When I see the  die hard talk  about having to leave  their dinar to their grandkids I think it is covering up the fact that they realize it was a mistake and are using that  as an excuse. If you ask the grandkids they would rather have the cash NOW.

[dontlop]

35 trillion dinar is about 32 billion dollars

32 million times 1000 is 32 billion

It's 1000 dollars worth of dinars per capita

TLAR says there's only one trillion dinar which makes it 900 million dollars worth of dinar or 30 dollars worth of dinar per person (30 million Iraqis)

35 trillion dinar equals a million dinar each for 35 million people

A trillion is a million million

Not a thousand million or ten thousand million or a hundred thousand million

A million million

A thousand million is a billion

10 thousand million is 10 billion