Is there really that much cash on the streets of Iraq?

[tamiflyer]

Take a look at the spreadsheet from the CBI. I have a question about the cells. Is Iraq trading electronically with entities inside/outside Iraq? The last cell "Trans." sure sounds like transferred as in wired. The cash cell plus the trans cell always equal the total volume in thousands of USD. So, the only money that could possibly leave the CBI through the traders locally or in route to Iran would be the cash. Right? I sure hope that they are not leaving electronically but that is another matter. Notice the zero in the cell. There was no cash traded that day, just wires, if my theory is correct. Now if all these cash trades, which have been diminishing since 2009, are the only cash trades for the markets (The Iraqi Citizen) then there should not be much monies in millions reaching Iran like the articles say. 30 million Iraqis still have to eat. IMO, it looks more like the money supply is drying up on the streets of Iraq or people are just holding it for as long as they can since the CBI is not letting out the Dinars like they used to. JMMHO. GLTA and Go RV.

[zigmeister]

Take a look at the spreadsheet from the CBI. I have a question about the cells. Is Iraq trading electronically with entities inside/outside Iraq? The last cell "Trans." sure sounds like transferred as in wired. The cash cell plus the trans cell always equal the total volume in thousands of USD. So, the only money that could possibly leave the CBI through the traders locally or in route to Iran would be the cash. Right? I sure hope that they are not leaving electronically but that is another matter. Notice the zero in the cell. There was no cash traded that day, just wires, if my theory is correct. Now if all these cash trades, which have been diminishing since 2009, are the only cash trades for the markets (The Iraqi Citizen) then there should not be much monies in millions reaching Iran like the articles say. 30 million Iraqis still have to eat. IMO, it looks more like the money supply is drying up on the streets of Iraq or people are just holding it for as long as they can since the CBI is not letting out the Dinars like they used to. JMMHO. GLTA and Go RV.

Wow Tammi.....if your theory is correct, the money laundering is a phi-sod? I am not sure I spelled that correctly. Good find. Let's boomp this up. I would like to hear others opinions on this.

[Abarvets]

To small a sample to make a determination. Something to watch.

[Carrello]

Tamiflyer, I won't pretend that I would know, or that I am a numbers person, but your theory certainly sounds compelling. Kudos to you!

[tamiflyer]

Thanks Zigmeister, Abarvets and Carrello. I agree that it is too small to tell yet but certainty should be watched very closely. GLTA and Go RV.

[FOUNDIT]

Been saying for a Long time that there is no way Iraqis have the ammount of dinar that is showing up at the currency auctions. Something is up and I believe Shabs knows about it. I don't trust him never have. Can't help but think the USD going out was a planed event with those who pretend to be our friend.

[zigmeister]

Tami looking at some of the articles today, I think this has gone all electric and that is why there is no cash, because they have started the "one window" system. So no cash crosses the border and Iraq CBI is setting up the banks with accounts within CBI(which is good) and all systems via on line have been given the green light. I believe we are seeing the cashless banking in progress.

[Shick]

What does the sell/buy has to do with the Volume, educate me. Still Go RV Go!

[keepmwlknfny]

Been saying for a Long time that there is no way Iraqis have the ammount of dinar that is showing up at the currency auctions. Something is up and I believe Shabs knows about it. I don't trust him never have. Can't help but think the USD going out was a planed event with those who pretend to be our friend.

Your right, they dont....its cause the dinar is not coming from the citizens of Iraq though.....

[Darin]

Your right, they dont....its cause the dinar is not coming from the citizens of Iraq though.....

It is probably coming from the surrounding nations that currencly have sanctions. They're dumping their IQD for USD, because the IQD is a non-convertible currency and is a likely easy way to access USD instead of their own domestic currency of their sanctioned country. The CBI really should not complain about this one bit, because it takes a lot of liabilities out of circulation. I would argue the largest bulk of cash outside of banks outside of the country would be in that region, not the U.S. or other countries far from the region. We likely only make up a very small % of speculators, but the neighboring regions would be the quickest to cash out upon any actual r/v event. If the CBI purchases these up at a low-cost, circulation is reduced. Lowering what is in circulation helps make the money supply more manageable. And eventually some of those outflowing USDs will make its way back ot the USD because of the trade within the region.

i.e., IQD exchanged for USD, neighboring citizen takes the USD and purchases goods after exchange and the USD is funneled right back into the system. Goods are sold, IQD pulled in, USD stays in the market.

Let's visualize if a R/V was "really" in the works...

What is a reasonable check list of what the GOI & CBI would likely wish to do prior to releasing a new rate?

1. Reduce the IQD in circulation held by foreign citizens, businesses, banks, and exchange centers.

2. Prevent foreign investments by making it difficult to invest

3. Reduce speculation upon arguing a value-neutral event

4. Boost their USD or other convertible reserve currencies in preparation

5. Prepare an education campaign and a way to inform their people

Okay, so we're currenctly seeing #1 basically happen to a degree. We're not receiving exact information regarding what the CBI is exchanging for to hand out the USD, but let's "assume" they're exchanging IQD. Which may be why some are concerned about the market value.

#2 - I know that I have read through articles, that it isn't exactly easy to invest over in that region. Warka looks doubtful at times, getting into the ISX can be a long process, laws prevent some types of investors from owning land due to them being foreign, and so forth.

#3 - This one goes w/o saying, as we've seen this debated on a daily basis.

#4 - I recall an article how the CBI had a large shipment of USD shipped to them. I wonder if they anticipated the sanctioned countries dumping IQD for USD??

#5 - This one may be in the works, in progress, etc. If a r/v even were to truly occur, they're teaching them of an upcoming exchange but not providing factual data on how this event will occur.

Lets focus on #5 for a bit: If the CBI had a plan of action, and they were trying to get the GOI to go along with it, why would they not release that plan to the public? They're being rather cryptic of details... The CBI has claimed it to be inevitable, so why not release that information? Why not a more detailed plan on how this would play out, because if they're being honest, it would be a revenue-neutral event, right?

Now to further clarify what I would be looking for would simply be key words & phrases such as:

-- A listing of the desired denominations (1, 2, 5, 10, etc. ) Describing the lower denominations

-- Two separate exchange rates, how old will follow 1 rate, while new will follow another.

Now, a rebuttal to this could simply be that the CBI does not wish to confuse the masses until a plan is set in stone. But, my rebuttal to that would be that the media sure does a crazy job of blasting in the media the 3 zero articles. It appears to be rather excessive if anything, because do they post about the HCL on a daily basis? Ch. 7 on a daily basis? Approving the budget on a daily basis? Heck! We rarely see anything regarding the final minister positions up until recently...

I try to look at this both ways to keep an open mind.

[keepmwlknfny]

It is probably coming from the surrounding nations that currencly have sanctions. They're dumping their IQD for USD, because the IQD is a non-convertible currency and is a likely easy way to access USD instead of their own domestic currency of their sanctioned country. .

From what I understand, the majority of the banks involved are within Iraq.....So if they are getting dinar in exchange for the USD from its internal banks then I can see mass movements of dinar that would be needed to purchase USD at the auctions...

The thing Im wondering about is how much USD is actually sold to banks outside the country, and if they are getting in return dinar itself, or some other kind of pay that is then converted to dinar within the CBI...either through straight exchange or by being able to just print more equal to the value of the profit made and the original amount value that was sold....

For 7 or 8 years or so through these auctions, if the biggest buyer of USD were outside banks, and they were in fact trading straight up dinar for the USD, then there would have to be a massive amount of dinar outside the country.....and this would of had to be put out to these banks almost from the beginning....stacked with large quantities of dinar to start with, and then of course having other means to gradually pull some in....