coldwarvet

I think you can narrow down the window to less than the range of $.10 to $5.27. It's true the pumpers are always on the high end; most likely not realistic. However, ask yourself this question: how much real purchasing power do you think the Iraqi people would gain if the RV was set at $.10? Also, factor in the prouncements of CBI Gov. Shabibi, who has publicly stated that he'd like to revalue the IQD on a par with the USD. Finally, the sociological factors mentioned in other posts, i.e., the pride of the Arab people, and the comparisons the Iraqis will draw against the values of the other Arab currenices, are major and cannot be ignored. Bottom line: unlike here in Western society, this is NOT just a balance sheet decision. The IQD RV will have HUGE implications for economies around the globe, including our own. All of these factors, and many more I haven't mentioned, will impact the final value, whatever it may be. My call: certainly not $.10, but not $5.27 either. Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine.

There is a quote in Scripture that applies to this situation: "You will know neither the day nor the hour of my coming." It also applies to the RV. We all need to relax a bit, as difficult as that may be. These things will all unfold with or without our hand wringing, so we might as well make it easy on ourselves.

Many thanks, KeithZ!!! You brought all the threads together in a way no one else has. Great job!

Having spent time during my military career at both the Pentagon and the Air Force Personnel Center, and participated in the Air Force budget planning process on both assignments, I can tell you unequivocally that the budget planning figures for ANY government's budget do not necessaarily have to reflect reality. Just look at the budget Obama released for 2012! Those numbers are for planning purposes only, and do not have to reflect reality. IMO the RI/RV number will ultimately be called by CBI Governor Shabibi - with a lot of help from the UN, IMF, World Bank, US, etc., taking into consideration a whole host of factors that are not reflected in the budget. In other words, it's fruitless for any of us to speculate on this number. IMO it'll be a good number, and we'll all make money. That's enough for me.

While I am appreciative of the efforts of those of us on this forum who bring these news items to our attention, I think we need to keep all of these items in perspective. When an MP (member of Parliament) gives an interview to the Iraqi media, it is the equivalent of a Congressman in our country (member of the House of Representatives) giving an interview to our own media. How much credence do we give the so-called authoritative pronouncements of our own Congressmen in the media? Point being, let's take ALL of the media reports with a large grain of salt and, just like in this country, "don't believe everything you read in the newspapers."

As an entrepreneur in the media industry, the most important business lesson I have learned is to know what I don't know. In this case, I don't know when the RV will occur. Based on what I've read here thus far, neither does anyone else on this forum. Your guess is as good as mine, or anyone else's. However, based on what I have read, I BELIEVE that an RV which is advantageous to the people of Iraq, and my personal finances (in that order of priority), will occur. GO RV!

I think it is important to interpret Governor Shabibi's comments in their entirety, not just take part of a quote to make one's case. Prior posts have shown that Shabibi tied the term "delete the three zeros" to raising the value of the dinar so that it would be comparable to the USD. A LOP would not achieve that. Raising the value to .86 IQD = 1 USD, or some value in that neighborhood, would. IMHO.

I think that there would be better security if they kept it as quiet as they could. An announcement of "TA-DA, the Iraqi Dinar just RV'd!" would be a red flag to many criminal types and would actually increase the need for security. I envision waking up one morning, turning on my cell phone and seeing a message from Adam, or logging onto cbi.iq and seeing the number changed. I DON'T think the event will even make the media, at least not right away. The quieter, the better.

I think ThePhantomRider hit the nail on the head. Especially in light of the news of growing protests in Iraq, the primary (if not sole) purpose of an RI/RV would be to increase the Iraqis' purchasing power. They can't do that if they come in too low, and speculators either sit on the sidelines waiting for a valuation increase, or buy up huge blocks of currency, bidding the price up and causing inflation (ala Kuwait). On the other hand, they can't RV too high without causing other problems. I won't be so bold as to predict a rate, but a middle-of-the-road value seems the most logical.

The pumpers' and gurus' so-called "intel" aside, there has been too much happening over the last few months for there NOT to be a good outcome. Yes, there's risk, but every day I read more legitimate info that supports what we're all hoping for. GO RV!

Link doesn't work.

Given that the RI/RV would be done, first and foremost, to benefit the Iraqi people, it seems to me that a middle-of-the-road value would both convey those benefits and help deter speculators from driving up the price, like they initially did in Kuwait. One of the primary concerns would be to hold down inflation in the Iraqi economy. Creating an environment where speculators had ample room to drive up the value wouldn't do that. Just sayin'!

While jwprimerica's rationale makes sense, the other factor in play here is the effect of speculation post-RV. Although the Kuwaiti dinar story is different in some ways from Iraq's, the common denominator is the need to stabilize the currency post-RV to preclude wild fluctuations and hold down inflation in the Iraqi economy. So Shabibi will need to balance the RV rate between the "realism" of many prognosticators, and the need to avoid having the value bid up too high by speculators. It'll be interesting to see how he does that.

Thanks for the post, LettheRVbegin! What does that say about all the accounts that are in Warka bank? How will a wire transfer from Iraq be treated? Important questions that need to be answered. Just askin'!

The words "not severable" in the judge's decision are HUGE. That means that, in his opinion, the law cannot be piecemealed together, or that only the commerce clause has to be set aside. If that holds up in the Supreme Court, the entire law has to be thrown out and they have to start over again - with a much less cooperative Congress this time. Maybe they'll get it right the second time!

I've seen on some earlier posts that there is a bank deposit threshold beyond which a bank is required to notify the Dept. of Homeland Security. This is supposedly to help the govt. intercept drug money deposits. Other posts say this would result in a freezing of the account, perhaps indefinitely. What is that threshold, and what plans do dinar investors have to address this constraint? Please include links, if available. Thanks!

I think that there are many interlocking factors involved with this RV, some of which have already been outlined in this thread: realism, Iraqi pride, the pronouncements of others (i.e., Ali). However, if the history of the Kuwaiti RV is any indication, the Iraqis will want to avoid the Kuwaiti experience of RV'ing low, having their currency destabilized by traders, with resulting economic instability. Additionally, if indeed the US govt. is holding a large position in the IQD, and given our own fiscal fragility, it would make sense that there would be outside, behind-the-scenes pressure to RV at a rate that is win-win for the US and Iraq. Do we really think Biden made that unscheduled stop just for a photo op? Also, assuming the Iraqi constitution mandates only a 2% change in currency value each six months, how much sense does a low RV make in terms of providing the Iraqi people immediate and long term economic relief? Finally, if the IQD RV is indeed part of a larger plan, moving the global economy toward an asset-based valuation system, the recent announcements about the Iraqi oil reserves would support a higher RV. Thanks to all for the interesting discussion!

If the so-called global settlement were to work, it would have to offer either a winning scenario for all concerned, or it would have to disadvantage only those who had little capability to influence events. Given that the global economy is what it is today, there is little likelihood of being able to create either scenario. The long pole in the tent is currently China. With its currency undervalued anywhere between 20% and 40% (depending on whose numbers you believe), China has no real incentive to participate in a global settlement, unless the currency revaluation is forced upon it. Anyone see that happening any time soon? As far as the Fed going away is concerned, I think we'd all agree that it would benefit us all in this country if the US were out from under the Fed's thumb, debtwise. However, given that other international players, especially China, continue to gain from servicing our debt, that isn't going to occur any time soon, either. See the connection between these two scenarios? China.

Assuming the +/- 2% parameters of a managed float being offered by previous posters are correct, it should stay in the regime of about 1146 to 1193, plus or minus a couple of decimal points. If it goes outside that, and stays there, maybe something else is going on.

tryin, I admire your continuing courage and willingness to help your fellow investors, even in the face of the despicable treatment you have suffered at the hands of the very few. Please accept my thanks, and please don't allow the actions of the 2% to override the VERY positive feelings toward you from the 98%. You are a true gentleman, and we are all privileged to have you as a member of this forum.

I have been reading everyone’s posts for a while now. This is my first post. As a former participant in budget planning exercises at the Pentagon and the Air Force Personnel Center, I think that tying an anticipated RV to figures in the budget ignores that these numbers are primarily for PLANNING. I never saw a set of budget planning figures reflected in actual economic activity. However, there are compelling reasons for an RV in the both the range of $1-2, and in the range above $3. On the one hand, it’s true that we are dealing with a war torn country, which is only now beginning to move toward its full potential with regard to oil and gas production. 2.5 million barrels a day is a far cry from the 12 million they anticipate being able to produce. Also, the effect of a sudden increase in value of the dinar on both the collective wealth of the population and the inflation rate in the economy would mitigate against a large RV. On the other hand, the impact of the deals struck with the IMF and the Paris Club, and the debt owed Kuwait needs to be considered also. Additionally, since we are dealing with a country steeped in a millennia old, honor-based culture, we should not underestimate the impact of Iraq being able to point with pride to a higher RV. The bottom line, though, is whether the RV hits at 1.11, 3.22, or 5.27, we all will enjoy a return on investment of between 1000% and 5000%. Something to keep in mind.