* Phoenix

[tbush]

I present a question to all.

Who do you think is correct on the true situation in Iraq?

Some negative person with little understanding of the true situation,

who is insisting Iraq is so destitute and weak that they must Lop the dinar?

Or would you believe a PhD in International Economics?

Well….myself…I think I will side with Dr.Thompson and ingnore the rants of the

negative “Lopsters.”

Please note Dr Thompson says that every Iraqi is a “present value millionaire”

For the edification of all.

Phoenix.

A Crude Look at Iraqi Wealth

Dr. Henry Thompson

PhD. International Economics

Auburn University

Iraq is a wealthy country and every Iraqi is a present value millionaire and wealth in the world has shifted toward the owners of crude oil. Over the next two decades, total world energy consumption will almost double and serious alternatives to oil are decades away. In the US, oil consumption is expanding, production declining, and imports climbing. Oil prices and the energy share of national income will increase over the coming decades. Alternative energy sources are available but expensive and certainly will not lower the energy bill.

Monopoly resource profits will be going to the owners of oil and other energy resources. Owners of oil reserves will profit as the price of oil rises due to scarcity. Oil extraction and refining are very competitive with profits slightly higher than the average industry but with high risk. The owners of the oil, however, will enjoy rising profits. Oil is owned primarily by governments around the world.

The price of a barrel of crude oil at the wellhead now jumps around between $40 and $150 while extraction cost in the Middle East is under $5. The owners of the oil in the ground get the difference as profit.

The Arab Gulf has 65% of the world’s proven oil reserves and Iraq has 12%. Oil in the ground is like money in the bank and that makes the Iraqi government, and perhaps the Iraqis themselves, wealthy.

Iraq can easily produce 6 million barrels of oil a day which is 2 billion barrels per year. At only $50 per barrel, that oil would sell for $100 billion. The population of Iraq is 24 million and that oil income translates to $4000 per person.

Suppose Iraq sells a quarter of its potential reserves at an average price of $50 per barrel over the next 20 years. That would generate 90 billion x $50 = $4.5 trillion. If the population of Iraq grows to 30 million, that would be $150,000 per capita for 20 years, or $7,500 annual income per capita. Price will be rising but the Iraqi government will waste a good deal of the profit.

If instead of wasting the income it is invested, Iraq will become wealthy. Estimated productive capital assets in the US are $60,000 per capita and $5,000 for the entire world. If Iraq invests only 1/4 of its oil revenue for the next 20 years, it will match current US productive assets per capita.

The total value of Iraq potential oil reserves at an average profit of $75 per barrel over next 100 years would be 360 billion x $75 = $27 trillion or $900,000per capita , making every Iraqi a millionaire. These calculations do not include natural gas revenue, lately about equal to oil revenue for producing fields. Also, most of Iraq has not be explored for gas and oil.

In the Persian Gulf region, proven oil reserves are 195 trillion barrels. Selling this at an average profit of $75 per barrel over the next 100 years would generate $15,000 trillion income . If half of that is invested, it would amount to $7,500 trillion or 1/4 of the present total capital assets in world. And this is only proven reserves. Due to political uncertainty most of the region has not been explored for gas and oil.

http://www.auburn.edu/~thomph1/iraq.htm

Edited February 22, 2010 by digital11

[jbird129]

I just hope the bankers feel that qway and share the wealth with the people

[Barbann]

The Iraqi people deserve this reward and so do we.

[DINARMONSTER]

Hello Phoenix.I have been following your post (if you are the same Phoenix)for about a yearbut I thought you quit about amonth ago.Let me know if you are the same Phoenix! About your post.Yes I agree that iraq will be the richest nation on earth in years to come but on the ideal that they have more oil than anyone in the world is debatable as of the Brekken ridge find in2005!I dont know why no one knows about it other than the fack that our goverment is keeping it quit!If what I have read is true the US has 500billion barrols of oil that is the sweet oil that is easy to refind and will cost 16 dollars a barrol to extrack!!It is located in Montania and North Dak up into Canada! If you can find anything on this please let me know!!Thank you for your hard work ! Toledo!!

[quadraph0nic]

I present a question to all.

Who do you think is correct on the true situation in Iraq?

Some negative person with little understanding of the true situation,

who is insisting Iraq is so destitute and weak that they must Lop the dinar?

Or would you believe a PhD in International Economics?

Well….myself…I think I will side with Dr.Thompson and ingnore the rants of the

negative “Lopsters.”

Please note Dr Thompson says that every Iraqi is a “present value millionaire”

For the edification of all.

Phoenix.

A Crude Look at Iraqi Wealth

Dr. Henry Thompson

PhD. International Economics

Auburn University

Iraq is a wealthy country and every Iraqi is a present value millionaire and wealth in the world has shifted toward the owners of crude oil. Over the next two decades, total world energy consumption will almost double and serious alternatives to oil are decades away. In the US, oil consumption is expanding, production declining, and imports climbing. Oil prices and the energy share of national income will increase over the coming decades. Alternative energy sources are available but expensive and certainly will not lower the energy bill.

Monopoly resource profits will be going to the owners of oil and other energy resources. Owners of oil reserves will profit as the price of oil rises due to scarcity. Oil extraction and refining are very competitive with profits slightly higher than the average industry but with high risk. The owners of the oil, however, will enjoy rising profits. Oil is owned primarily by governments around the world.

The price of a barrel of crude oil at the wellhead now jumps around between $40 and $150 while extraction cost in the Middle East is under $5. The owners of the oil in the ground get the difference as profit.

The Arab Gulf has 65% of the world’s proven oil reserves and Iraq has 12%. Oil in the ground is like money in the bank and that makes the Iraqi government, and perhaps the Iraqis themselves, wealthy.

Iraq can easily produce 6 million barrels of oil a day which is 2 billion barrels per year. At only $50 per barrel, that oil would sell for $100 billion. The population of Iraq is 24 million and that oil income translates to $4000 per person.

Suppose Iraq sells a quarter of its potential reserves at an average price of $50 per barrel over the next 20 years. That would generate 90 billion x $50 = $4.5 trillion. If the population of Iraq grows to 30 million, that would be $150,000 per capita for 20 years, or $7,500 annual income per capita. Price will be rising but the Iraqi government will waste a good deal of the profit.

If instead of wasting the income it is invested, Iraq will become wealthy. Estimated productive capital assets in the US are $60,000 per capita and $5,000 for the entire world. If Iraq invests only 1/4 of its oil revenue for the next 20 years, it will match current US productive assets per capita.

The total value of Iraq potential oil reserves at an average profit of $75 per barrel over next 100 years would be 360 billion x $75 = $27 trillion or $900,000per capita , making every Iraqi a millionaire. These calculations do not include natural gas revenue, lately about equal to oil revenue for producing fields. Also, most of Iraq has not be explored for gas and oil.

In the Persian Gulf region, proven oil reserves are 195 trillion barrels. Selling this at an average profit of $75 per barrel over the next 100 years would generate $15,000 trillion income . If half of that is invested, it would amount to $7,500 trillion or 1/4 of the present total capital assets in world. And this is only proven reserves. Due to political uncertainty most of the region has not been explored for gas and oil.

http://www.auburn.edu/~thomph1/iraq.htm

OHH MAN thats fantastic potential!! Fantastic indeed.

WHAT ABOUT THE RV!!

What about how many dinars total not cash they have out and what they heck are they going to back with it? UNPUMPED AND UN DEVELOPED OIL WITH THE INFRASTRUCTRURE THEY HAVE? Potential YES...I'm talking about NOW because its gonna RV? How are TRILLIONS OF DINARS SUPPORTED with just 65 billion dollars maybe?

Do the math...LOP!

worse case scenario i lose a little break even or i have to wait a year to double my investment. IF I AM WRONG I'M RICH AND LIVING THE LIFE OF A SULTAN!

Have a great day!

[Mongo]

Dr. Thompson...............crude

[ATTACH=CONFIG]572[/ATTACH]

[gregg450]

Hello Phoenix.I have been following your post (if you are the same Phoenix)for about a yearbut I thought you quit about amonth ago.Let me know if you are the same Phoenix! About your post.Yes I agree that iraq will be the richest nation on earth in years to come but on the ideal that they have more oil than anyone in the world is debatable as of the Brekken ridge find in2005!I dont know why no one knows about it other than the fack that our goverment is keeping it quit!If what I have read is true the US has 500billion barrols of oil that is the sweet oil that is easy to refind and will cost 16 dollars a barrol to extrack!!It is located in Montania and North Dak up into Canada! If you can find anything on this please let me know!!Thank you for your hard work ! Toledo!!

They want to use up everyone else's first! lol

[jam_az]

Someone really needs to read before they post. Phonics would have a cardiac arrest on this one.

[chas32]

When comparing ratios one must use a common ratio: USD, SDR, or the world currency that academia uses or the ratios are not comparing to any like units. You can not go from USD to Dinars to form a ratio and then say I am comparing a unit of one to .0008. Look for yourselves that currencies are converted to a common currency to do ratios or comparisons. The globe currency is done is USD and the M2 for the World is in USD. thing. We must not forget as the money is exchanged the CBI has the right to dispose of any excess to reduce the money supply. Estimates range from 1 trillion IQD - 3 trillion IQD held by investors like you and me. Yes, that is a lot, a explanation follows below on how Iraq will cover the RV.

From CIA World Book - 2009

M2- in USD Ratio of M2 covered by Reserves USD

$10,990,000,000,000 - US .007 $77,650,000,000

$134,300,000,000 - S.A. .353 $39,980,000,000

$171,600,000,000 - IS .330 $56,640,000,000

$26,100,000,000 - Iraq 1.792 $46,000,000,000

Not all money owed Iraq from the 1990 War that was seized is back in Iraq

[Enorrste]

Chas32: this is excellent material and confirms what I had written to FP in response to his concerns on Iraq being able to afford an RV. I knew that I had read what you just posted somewhere but was having trouble finding it. Now you have does us all a great favor by showing conclusively that Iraq is prepared for the RV.

Steve

[Celeste13]

Maybe he'll get his teeth fixed after the RV!

[john1025]

Excellent post!

[jocko129]

Gooooooooooooooooooo, rv

[CaptainJack]

NOT buying it .... "easily" produce 6 million barrels a day? Nothing in Iraq is or will be that easy. The link is simply a word document that anyone could write with no more information that has been published on the dinar sites hundreds of time before.

[CaptainJack]

I just did a search for the alleged Dr. Thompson .... couldn't find him with a search warrant relative to him being a PHd.