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Enorrste

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Everything posted by Enorrste

  1. People, people, people; I've already told you long ago that from the statement, "It should be noted" onward was an "insertion" from the reporter and NOT part of the CBI statement. Remember? Throw it out. It is not consistent with my "chronology" post. Steve
  2. scottqualls, you need to read up, a lot. I have addressed all of these issues; do an "enorrste" search and you will get it all, really.
  3. strange thread; how come I don't have a chubby? Did I miss something? I guess so. Who posts these things, these ramblings, looking for what, nuggets? How about this: If I have something to day it will be posted. There. That's clear. Short. To the point. Probably no one will read this though............. Steve
  4. bathman, I was on my way out the door and noticed your thread so I'll take a moment to respond, assuming I can get it in before I'm "rebanned" by grumpy. It is my understanding that the amount of dinars "in-country" is more like 5 trillion and that most of the dinars are either held by speculators (probably 3 trillion or so) or foreign nations, predominantly the US, GB, FR, and CHINA. I have been told (sorry, no links tonight) that these four countries have made a guarantee to the GOI and CBI that they will not attempt to return any IQD for at least 6 months after the RV. Of course in the case of the US the USTreasury will have to exchange the IQDs into dollars for us speculators. The next phase, as I understand it, will be that after this cooling off period these countries will exchange dinars back to Iraq for oil. As they do so the CBI will destroy the returned large denom notes, just as they will be doing "in-country". Because so many IQD of the total 23 trillion in circulation are held by foreign governments who have committed to retain them for at least 6 months, it will be easier for the CBI to reduce the "effective" money supply down to 25 billion as Shabibi has indicated is his goal. Then, in exchange for oil, these other IQDs will come in and disappear. Therefore Shabibi has in place a methodology that will give him the assurance of success. Recall early this weak that Maliki used the phrase "guarantees of success" in his first speech on the value of the dinar? I believe that this arrangement with the big 4 countries is a part of those "guarantees". I hope that somehow a "rapproachment" can be reached so that those here who have appreciated my presence and research may continue to benefit from it. I don't hold out much hope for that, though, since the "foxes are guarding the henhouse". Here's a joke: perhaps I should have accepted Adam's offer to make me a mod from the beginning. Then I wouldn't be in such a pickle now, would I? Steve
  5. The exact quote was taken from a November 22, 2008 article which is now no longer on the net but was quoted in August of 2009 on this link: http://dinaroutcast.forumotion.com/cbi-bank-news-f16/in-this-interview-al-shabibi-explains-how-the-cbi-is-not-the-sole-determiner-of-monetary-policy-t1885.htm I wish I'd known that before I used it in another thread! Ah well, it's true about inflation whenever it was written. Steve
  6. I realize this is EddieX's statement and that Mattevan is just pasting it over here for our entertainment. However, I can't help but at least comment on EddieX's statements. Here is the first: "While everyone was excited, I kept myself grounded and held back my thoughts. I thought it was possible but didn’t think it was happening when all the “gurus” started saying it’s done and they have the rate. They know nothing. Again it is part of why CTC was started. Some of the stuff they “claim” has been found at CTC and researched. CTC is about FACTUAL research. While they post articles and try to use all of them as good. At CTC we break them down completely." Based on what he has written here we should not expect any speculation from here forward, right? Yet what happens in the remainder of his post is largely speculative, after a brief if not entirely accurate summary of "fact." Phrases such as "in our opinion", "probably" (twice), and "we believe" clearly indicate personal speculative opinions. I have no problem with that, on the surface, since I do it as well as 99% of the posters on these sites. But to claim that you are only "factual" and then to add "speculation" is less than accurate. Instead I'd like him to have just said up front, "we base our speculations on facts". That is what I do, up front. Now, he makes a statement that is in his "fact" section that may or may not be fact: "He [shabibi] is taking steps to introduce the Iraqi Dinar as a currency that is 100% backed, which will establish the IQD in a pre-eminent position. " If this is a true statement I have not seen it in print anywhere. What we have seen in print is quite clearly stated by Shabibi himself, and that is that the current money supply of 23 trillion dinars needs to be drawn back to the pre 1980 level of 25 billion dinars. In addition, Shabibi has given us a road map for accomplishing that goal, namely the withdrawal of all noted with 3 zeros on them by the end of the year, or shortly thereafter. Therefore, based on his own words, we can expect the money supply to be 25 billion dinars by that time. Given the fact that there are currently $43 billion in reserves, then at an RV rate of 1 dinar = $1 their reserves would be over 200% of money supply by the end of the year, right? This means that they could afford an RV of $1.72 per dinar and STILL have 100% coverage of their outstanding 25 billion dinars ($1.72 times 25 billion equals 43 billion). So EddieX's number of "somewhere near the Euro" is too low. However, what EddieX did not discuss is the affect of a rate even at $1.72 with 100% reserve coverage. The answer to that question as to the "affect" is that serious speculators would flock into the dinar and force its value upward at a pace that Shabibi would find difficult to control. Any attempt to "float" the currency will lead speculators to the conclusion that 15% in reserves is PLENTY for Iraq. This means that the $43 billion would support an IQD value as high as $2.44 with still a 50% fractional reserve. Clearly I don't believe that will happen, but it does show the way speculators could be thinking and the risk of coming in too low for Shabibi. Steve
  7. Kent, thanks for your responses. You indicated that no where does the "delete the 3 zeros" state that the large denom notes are going to be withdrawn from circulation. From Feb 28: "The Iraqi Central Bank defended its policy to withdraw by the deletion of zeros from the cash currency in order to reduce inflation". He said “it is important to reduce [the money supply]," noting that the process of lifting the zeroes is a "long-term policy." From Feb 10: “CBI begins the end of the year and gradually replace the currency now in circulation a new currency which zeroes deleted within the strategy to reform the monetary system started in 2005.” Steve
  8. Then on February 23 we received a great find from John1025: “Finance Minister Baqir Jabr Al-Zubaidi: At the end of this year will see the current Iraqi dinar currency pair and the new Iraqi dinar, which is no different for the same amount, noting that the employee's salary is not affected by the standard of living….. This is not like the ministry, but the jurisdiction of the Central Bank independent of the ministry's proposal but it is the proposal I submitted to me three years ago, by deleting three zeros and the Central Bank studied this proposal and the bank's board finally approved by the end of this year we will see Ammeltian the current Iraqi dinar and the new Iraqi dinar, which is no different for The same amount will not be affected employee's salary and standard of living of the citizen with the survival of the dinar in the same Altdlol .” http://translate.google.com/translat...%26tbs%3Dqdr:d Not coincidentally, in my view, Al-Zubaidi refers back to the process that he mentioned 3 years ago, when he said that the plan would come to fulfillment in 3 years. He is fulfilling his own statement and stating without equivocation that the plan is right on schedule. On February 28 we received the most detailed discussion of the “action plan” yet: The Iraqi Central Bank defended its policy to withdraw by the deletion of zeros from the cash currency in order to reduce inflation, againt its critics [who say that it is] a policy that is "progressive" and long-term, although most critics regarded the policy as a unit, which the Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister called "in vain" and that it would cost the budget a lot but come to no real avail. Central Bank adviser Muhammed Al Salih appeared to discuss the economic policy of the central bank for withdrawing cash from the local market due to the "inflation suffered by the money supply, which rose from 25 billion dinars in 1980 to 23 trillion dinars now. He said “it is important to reduce [the money supply]," noting that the process of lifting the zeroes is a "long-term policy adopted by the Iraqi government and the central bank, which will direct the project as soon as the development of the Iraqi economy warrants it, and that this may be this year or next and will probably require a longer time, depending mainly on the stability [of the economy] for the operation." Saleh told (Voices of Iraq) that "there is no need to rush the process at the moment but at the same time it is required because the subject of reform will not change the value of the currency, except to make the bills smaller." He stressed that Iraq "During the next few years, according to the new development plan, will raise its oil production, and resources will increase significantly.” He added, “and we therefore need a strong currency and low [denomintated notes] at the same time, [thereby making them] easy to handle. " http://ar.aswataliraq.info/?p=202726 Later that same day Dr. Saad Al-Hassoun Hayali, a spokesman for the CBI, gave this statement: “[He added] that the policy of the Iraqi Central Bank [is] to raise and support the Iraqi dinar; [it] is very important in increasing customer confidence in Iraqi dinars, which contribute to increase the volume of foreign investment and local levels in Iraq, and [this is] the axiom of the theory of money, banking, currency and prestige of the state: [namely] when the currency weakens [there is] less prestige of the state.” http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...l/Iraq%20Banks And also on the 28th of February we received a statement from none other than Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki himself: “Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar has to do with economic conditions that have to be strengthened. "’The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy,’ Maliki said in response to some questions through the National Information Center. "’The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is currently entrusted with drawing up a study on the whole issue and would give its decision soon,’ said the Iraqi premier. “The Iraqi dinar's exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency's exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime.” http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZA...01/?query=iraq On the following day, March 1, Shabibi gave a further clarification of the action plan: “The governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) on Monday said that the current exchange rate (1,170 Iraqi dinars per dollar) is reasonable, adding that the bank has enough foreign reserves to defend the exchange rate. “ ‘The CBI is adopting a managed floating policy of exchange rate, through which a reasonable exchange rate is fixed,’ Sinan Al-Shabibi told Aswat al-Iraq news agency. “’The current exchange rate is reasonable and stable and can be defended by our vast foreign reserves, totaling $43 billion U.S. dollars at the moment,’ Shabibi explained.” I have already explained elsewhere how I believe that this article has inaccurately stated the intentions of Shabibi. The phrase in parentheses was interjected into the article by a reporter, and was not stated by Shabibi himself. With its removal the intent of Shabibi is more clear. In addition, as I have argued, the word “current” is also incorrectly translated into English from Arabic and it should read “new” instead. Therefore, I have argued that Shabibi has announced the final fulfillment of the 5 year “action plan” begun in 2005 and he is right on the schedule laid out 3 years ago by Al-Zubaidi in which he indicated in 2007 that the plan would require another 3 years to complete. Therefore Shabibi’s statement should correctly be understood as the announcement of the adoption of a new exchange rate for the dinar. As I have stated before, the only way in which the last sentence can have proper meaning is for it to refer to a new rate rather than the old (current) rate. Unless a new rate is being discussed the statement that it is “reasonable and stable and can be defended” has no bearing on the old rate whatsoever. The old rate is not only not reasonable, as stated by Maliki the day before as being “too low”; but it also does not need to be “defended” by huge reserves. The reserves of Iraq were only $11 billion just 3 years ago, and the rate was the same then as it is now (.00086). The increase in reserves therefore MUST refer to a new rate that is defensible by these reserves being in place. Finally, today we received two articles that had to be quickly dismissed by the CBI. The first referred to a new rate coming out at 1000 dinars to 1 dollar in June of this year. The CBI flatly denied that this is in their plan and went further to state that “Iraq’s currency policies are far from such decisions.” By using the word “far” I can only assume that he is stating that the imminent RV will be much higher than 1000 to 1. Steve
  9. How Iraq has exposed its plans from the beginning Our friend hiltonhead05 has a thread in which he says categorically that what we are reading in the media regarding Iraq
  10. Someone on another thread I was reading last night also said that at Forex a similar statement was made, namely that they would be exchanging in the "new dinar" very soon. We are closing in on this, I do believe. Steve
  11. The article that mentioned the month of June was bogus and was denied by the CBI directly. With respect to the upcoming RV, my statements are all based on the statements in documents of the intention of the CBI to RV and then redenominate over the next several months. This has been published. Then 3 days ago Maliki obliquely referred to it. Then 2 days ago Shabibi himself talked about it. Therefore the information is now out. Yet we do not see people running to the local currency vendor to exchange their money. Therefore, I believe that the argument you make doesn't stand up given the fact that the entire world already knows the intention of the CBI is to RV this year. Maybe I'm missing your point, but without any evidence of "panic" buying or selling on the streets of Iraq even after the announcement of intent has been given several times, I just don't see it.
  12. I am going to respond to FP here so that all can see my line of thinking. I will not argue each point since it is not really relevant to the discussion at hand, in my opinion. We can have disagreements about how a specific sentence might be understood. On the other hand, when we get to the crux of the issue, namely the upcoming RV, it is necessary that we be clear as to what I did or did not say. We will start with this quote and FP’s response: “The Iraqi dinar's exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency's exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime. " Notice in a previous post how Steve has conveniently redefined "currently" to mean a new exchange rate rather than the obvious interpretation of the current (read: what is actually posted right now) exchange rate? Yet, they use the word "is" in the sentence, "The IQD's exchange rate is suffering..." Well, Steve, is the curent rate suffering, or is the current rate a new RV'ed rate? We can't have it both ways. If Maliki is talking about a current rate meaning an RV'ed rate, then why is it suffering from "low value", and yet he still talks about it in the present tense? Here it is necessary for me to clarify that my reference to changing the word “current” to “new” did NOT have anything to do with Maliki’s statement. It was in reference to Shabibi’s statement made the next day. I notice, incidentally, that the word “current” is not even in Maliki’s statement, so I’m wondering why FP has applied it here when it is not here at all. So therefore the remainder of FP’s questions in the paragraph above have no application to the statement or anything about a “new” rate. Now, with reference to my “convenient” changing of the word “current” to “new” you might also recall that this was translated from Arabic to English. Someone decided to use the word current. I posted the definition of current in another thread and showed that a synonym for the word “current” is also “new”. Furthermore, the definition of “current” can also include the meaning of passing from one to another. This would apply to the IQD rate as “passing from one to another”. Similarly the term “new” in the definition below also includes the idea of “most recent”. This would also apply to the IQD rate as “the most recent, or new” rate. cur•rent    Show Spelled[kur-uh nt, kuhr-] Show IPA –adjective 1. passing in time; belonging to the time actually passing: the current month. 2. prevalent; customary: the current practice. 3. popular; in vogue: current fashions. 4. new; present; most recent: the current issue of a publication. 5. publicly reported or known: a rumor that is current. 6. passing from one to another; circulating, as a coin. Steve
  13. Thank you, Sunglass, for referring to this link below. Actually it was this link that is the second article that I referred to at the beginning of this thread. The first was clearly denied by the CBI because it mentioned a rate change to 1000 to 1 in June, which the CBI says is NOT going to happen. The second article is here. I’d like you all to follow along with me on this so that you can see how my mind works. Here is the article as posted: No plans to make ID1000 = $1 – CBI March 3, 2010 - 05:01:06 BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: There are no plans to make the exchange rate of ID1,000 equal to $1, Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) said on Wednesday. “Iraq’s currency policies are far from such decisions,” the CBI said in a release received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency. The CBI said that the current exchange rate, ID 1,170 = $1, is balanced, stable, and can be preserved through Iraq’s foreign currency reservoir of $43 billion. We can see from the first line that this is the same “denial” statement that I posted at the beginning of this thread. The next line is new direct information from the CBI and is a direct quote from their release. Now let’s look at the third line. Does it look familiar? It should. It comes from the statement made by Shabibi just two days ago. Here is what the Shabibi statement read then: “The governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) on Monday said that the current exchange rate (1,170 Iraqi dinars per dollar) is reasonable, adding that the bank has enough foreign reserves to defend the exchange rate. “’The current exchange rate is reasonable and stable and can be defended by our vast foreign reserves, totaling $43 billion U.S. dollars at the moment,’ Shabibi explained.” Now it is clear that the statement in today’s article is taken from the statement made 2 days ago. The wording is nearly identical. I have underlined the parts that were “borrowed” by today’s writer to complete his article today. However, the article today took out the parentheses from the article from 2 days ago. I explained last night in chat that it was my opinion that the writer of the article 2 days ago included the parenthetical statement for clarity, or so he thought. Obviously it is not typical for a speaker to put his own words in parentheses when giving an interview. Yet the writer put these words in there. Presumably he felt he was clarifying the issue. However I have argued that he had done so incorrectly and that Shabibi was referring to the NEW currency rate when he said that the country could afford it due to its large reserve holdings. I also argued that the sentence made no sense if it referred to the .00086 rate, since that has been stable for years now, and the raising of the reserves in the last several months would have no bearing on that rate at all. Now we move to the statement from today and see that the writer has copied most of the words from the Shabibi article, but has removed the parenthesis (which Shabibi never even made) and thereby incorporated the error from 2 days ago into the article from today. You will all ask: how do you now this enorrste? My answer comes from the CBI itself. Here is a quote from Zubaidi made February 23: This is not like the ministry, but the jurisdiction of the Central Bank independent of the ministry's proposal but it is the proposal I submitted to me three years ago, by deleting three zeros and the Central Bank studied this proposal and the bank's board finally approved by the end of this year we will see Ammeltian the current Iraqi dinar and the new Iraqi dinar. Similarly we have the response to critics of Saleh’s plan, found by k98knight and dated February 28: [He added] that the policy of the Iraqi Central Bank [is] to raise and support the Iraqi dinar; [it] is very important in increasing customer confidence in Iraqi dinars, which contribute to increase the volume of foreign investment and local levels in the Iraq, and [this is] the axiom of the theory of money, banking, currency and prestige of the state: [namely] when the currency weakens [there is] less prestige of the state. So we can see that the article found by Sunglass has an error in it and we can also see where the error came from. I have always contended that the CBI and Ministry of Finance are consistent. That is why I laid out the “Chronology” of their statements as a “groundwork” against which to read all subsequent statements. Therefore, when I see something that looks “fishy”, as is the case with this last article found by Sunglass, I needed only to go back to the groundwork documents to find the error and expose it. In short, Shabibi never used the words “1170 Iraqi dinars per dollar” in his statement of 2 days ago; they were inserted by the article writer. Then the writer today exacerbated the problem by carrying over the “1170 to 1” as if in fact the CBI had stated it, when we know from the 2 quotes just above that the CBI does NOT intend to keep the rate at 1170 to 1. Furthermore, in denying that they would go to 1000 to 1 by June they also added this: “Iraq’s currency policies are far from such decisions.” In my opinion what this is saying is that the RV will NOT be a small one at all but instead will be a significant gain in the value of the IQD. That is why the statement says that the policies “are far from such decision.” Steve
  14. I am certain that there was a great deal of concern with the two articles today that claimed that the CBI was going to go from 1170 dinars per dollar to 1000 dinars per dollar by June. I'm also sure that the naysayers were "chafing at the bit" waiting for me to "wiggle my way" out of these articles with some strange "interpretation". However, as I read the long one and noted that it wasn't even internally consistent I decided that it was inaccurate, at best, and probably outright wrong at worst. So I waited. Fortunately the CBI saw the article and made its own statement. Here is the link: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://al-iraqnews.net/new/iconomi/57243.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnahrain%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26channel%3Ds%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26hs%3DyfB%26sa%3DX%26num%3D100%26newwindow%3D1&rurl=translate.google.ca Conscious / m. A 3/3/2010 5:20 pm ""With great interest the remarks attributed to incorrect Massadrldi addressed to some newspapers and news agencies today to the effect that the central bank intends to change the Iraqi dinar exchange rate by making the dollar worth a thousand dinars in the month of June next year. "He said the central bank In a press statement received (News Agency, Iraqi Information / conscious) a copy of the non-validity of this report or other criteria and the stability of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and the general signs of monetary policy is far from the news and other information is confused and incorrect, so necessary noted.
  15. Kent, thanks for taking the time to respond. The point that I was trying to make is that when an exchange rate changes there is little reaction from within a country. For example, in the last couple of years the dollar lost about 40% of its value, as I understand it. Yet there was no rush by Americans to go to the banks and convert their dollars to Euros. Within a country the money is just the money. Nothing changes initially. There would be a change if the RV is 1000 times or more, but the change would be to exchange large notes for small ones. Market activity (buying groceries) would not change. Finally, the move away from dollars is a lot farther along than you might suspect, according to sources that I have in Iraq. Steve
  16. http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://al-iraqnews.net/new/iconomi/57243.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnahrain%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26channel%3Ds%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26hs%3DyfB%26sa%3DX%26num%3D100%26newwindow%3D1&rurl=translate.google.ca Conscious / m. A 3/3/2010 5:20 pm "With great interest the remarks attributed to incorrect Massadrldi addressed to some newspapers and news agencies today to the effect that the central bank intends to change the Iraqi dinar exchange rate by making the dollar worth a thousand dinars in the month of June next year. He said the central bank In a press statement received (News Agency, Iraqi Information / conscious) a copy of the non-validity of this report or other criteria and the stability of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and the general signs of monetary policy is far from the news and other information is confused and incorrect, so necessary noted.
  17. jesse and nuls1066, I suspected that someone would question my addition of a word and my change of a word and even stated so in the post. However, for both of you I will address these minor additions. Let's take the word "now". This word does not change the meaning of the statement at all. It only clarifies the meaning of the statement. If I say "the CBI is adopting" or I say "the CBI is now adopting" I defy you to tell me that the meaning is changed, other than to indicate that it is happening NOW. The fact of the matter is that the verb is "is" and not "has" or "will be". It is in the current tense, meaning that it applies to "now" as opposed to "then" or "soon". Therefore, in spite of your attempt to state that the meaning is changed, you are mistaken. The second case is similar to the first. Here is a common dictionary definition of the word "current": cur
  18. Kent, well done in using my own phrase against me! In the case of this announcement we have two issues. The first is the problem in translating from Arabic to English. Hopefully I will be vindicated by netinfo in my assumption that my "translation" is accurate. The second issue, more to your point, is the subtle nature of the statement. In my opinion Shabibi was quite direct, in Arabic, and his statement was understood as it was stated. You need to understand that for the local Iraqi the rate is not really material. Take the dollar, for instance. Do you know or even care it if will buy 1.49 Euros, or .95 Euros? Of course not. From within a country the foreign exchange rate is not relevant (until imports become cheaper). So there is really no reason for Shabibi to give a number, which would probably be meaningless to most Iraqis anyway. What IS meaningful, is to state clearly that the "new" exchange rate will be "strong" and will be "supported" by adequate reserves. Here we see the "ego statement", and that hits home for the Iraqis. Steve
  19. You are not going to believe this! I must apologize to all for not having posted this yesterday afternoon. As it turns out I had made a commitment to drive 75 miles one way for dinner. Of course the dinner led to “after dinner drinks” and before you know it, I spent the night. Then today I was on the road all day until just now. However, I am back and have a wonderful surprise for you all. Let’s start with Maliki’s statement from 3 days ago: 28 February 2010 “Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar has to do with economic conditions that have to be strengthened. "’The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy,’ Maliki said in response to some questions through the National Information Center. "’The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is currently entrusted with drawing up a study on the whole issue and would give its decision soon,’ said the Iraqi premier. “The Iraqi dinar's exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency's exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime. “The exchange rate fell even more after 2003 to reach 1170 dinars per dollar due to the CBI's policy of daily auction, in effect for more than five years now. “The policy was lambasted by several economists on the grounds that these auctions do not give the real value of the country's local currency.
  20. This almost verbatim taken from Phoenix's post on another site. Steve
  21. I knew there was a reason I should have taken Arabic instead of Latin, Greek, and French! Thank you, thank you, netinfo, for unraveling this little ditty. It made no sense when I posted it, but it was there in front of me. What was I to do? So I posted what I saw. It never occurred to me that the word wouldn't even BE there. Ah well, onto the next one, as they say. I'm sure tonight we will have many other interesting things to discuss, right? To the individual who says that I am "never right" I will only say this. I am an analyst. I don't know anyone who knows the REAL answer and have never said that I did. Furthermore, I have never used a "site owner" as a source. If and when I have given an opinion, it was NEVER in a post but was ONLY in chat. I would hope that you will give me the same recognition that any other member has in chat, and that is to allow me to speculate. I have never asked that chats be posted when I was there. It has happened, but my name is not at the bottom of them. I have FUN on the chat and expect that everyone will know that I am HOPING just like you are. Lighten up, dude. When you've done as much research as I have, then we can "chat" together. Until then, you have your opinion and I have mine. Let's leave it at that, OK. Putting me down only serves to show your motivation, not my level of understanding of this investment. Steve
  22. The Prof just got home; man this one is a doosy! I'm hoping that the RV occurs before I try to unravel this one. However, I will give it a shot. In the meantime, though, it's 6:00 p.m. my time and time to chat! Steve
  23. Something is Strange about the 2010 Budget! I have finally been blessed with an English translation of a portion of the 2010 Iraqi budget and I
  24. Second time answering; TIME is the issue; today 25,000 dinars is $25; tomorrow, after the RV, 25 dinars is $25. But that means tomorrow 25,000 dinars is $1,000,000. Get it? So, the local Iraq who today has 25,000 dinars worth $25 will go to the bank tomorrow and deposit his 25,000 dinar note. He will get 25 dinars, worth $25, so no loss in purchasing power, as the article says. But what you are missing is this: he still has 24,975 dinars in the bank! Remember, both are legal currency. He just won't be able to use the 25,000 dinar note, since it is tomorrow worth $25,000. So he deposits it and has 24,975 dinars in savings. Do you think he might vote for Maliki on the 7th if this happens? I think you might be getting it now, right? Steve
  25. Response to the Critics of Saleh’s Plan to RV the currency Thanks to his diligent effort k98night found this great response to the earlier article I “retranslated” regarding the attack by Abdel Hussein and Ferry Anbuge against the plan to RV the currency in the near future. Here I will try to do the same. Thanks k98night for a great find! http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...l/Iraq%20Banks February 28, 2010 Foreign exchange reserves at the central bank .. Conflict development or stability? الدكتور سعد حسون الحيالي Dr. Saad Al-Hassoun Hayali [states] that the principle of economic development is economic stability, political, and social development. The question of financing development should not be moving towards the use of federal cash reserves; the fact is that this reserve is dedicated to support the national currency; [furthermore] the CBI [states that] country’s [reserve bank] must be respected [as an] independent authority [outside] of the government. [The CBI is] linked to the parliament [for the purpose of belaying the] fear of manipulation and interference in its policies, which aim to maintain the purchasing power of the people and, by the appropriate non-interference in its policies, support economic stability, and provide advice to the government. [Here he is stating that the CBI is independent of the government, on the one hand, but also linked to it on the other, so that it can provide a function to maintain a stable economic environment while maintaining purchasing power for the people.] The refutation of the ideas put forward by a fellow brother, Dr. Abdul Hussein Al-Anbuge can be summarized as follows [we see here that there is only one critic here, not two!]: That the cash reserve at the Central Bank, are designed to support the Iraqi currency, either on Financing for Development out of the proceeds of the investment budget for the Iraqi government, or from fiscal revenue from taxation, and that development is not limited to the amount of money [in circulaton] but there is [also] a human potential [from the] Iraqi unemployed [that] can be used in the reconstruction process, especially the infrastructure sector. [He added] that the policy of the Iraqi Central Bank [is] to raise and support the Iraqi dinar; [it] is very important in increasing customer confidence in Iraqi dinars, which contribute to increase the volume of foreign investment and local levels in Iraq, and [this is] the axiom of the theory of money, banking, currency and prestige of the state: [namely] when the currency weakens [there is] less prestige of the state. [He continued] that monetary policy should be supportive of government activity, but not at the expense of the rates of the local currency. The final say in the matter of economic policy of the Government, in the rationalization of consumer spending, in favor of investment spending, military spending and the media, etc. .........[lies with good policy] . [Continuing, he said] that the solution to the problem of unemployment, ought to be the establishment of Banks financing small projects in Iraq, the aim of which is the supporting young people towards production; for example, but not limited to, projects [such as] hatching eggs in the poultry industry, projects to rehabilitate the unemployed workforce, an increase in [the number of] repair shops, and control of [the] import market [for] electrical contracts in the security and maintenance [fields, and] of after[ market]-sales, so there is no guarantee for one year for each device enters permanent consumption of Iraq, control and quality control for all imported goods. [Here he is alluding to the fact that the drawing in of the large denom notes into the banks will allow for investment “across the board”, all good for the Iraqi economy.] [We] are also dealing with corruption and the corrupt, [leading to] impeachment [of the offenders]; and the replacement with new faces [let’s us] believe [that] piety and good works [will lead to improving the] (public interest). In addtion [we should seek] feminine protections by officials [within an] identified certain limit, in parallel with improved security and political performance of good government. [Through the actions of] the Central Bank of Iraq, failures in economic policy planning and executing the economic faculties of national consumption, national saving and national investment, national income, and the flow of commodities and cash flows, could all be resolved in the orbit of the general economic policy, limited to the task of the Iraqi Central Bank in promoting these general economic indicators, or even reducing their occurrence [of failure]. He did not give the brother Dr. Abdul Hussein any of the indicators, [but] only a discussion of the topic in a narrow part of the Iraqi Central Bank reserves, while the reality on the ground, [namely] poor performance in the implementation of government projects related to security reasons, as well as a [removal of] Mahsasp, [a] partisan and sectarian, [led] Brake [to] direct the work of the Prime Minister to choose and change his crew in the government, [so that] over the five years we have not seen a cabinet reshuffle is necessary which has led to the lifting of the government's performance, which he credited to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in more than one occasion. [He added] that the responsibility of the Iraqi Central Bank is to lend to the government for government bonds in all countries of the world, but [that] the Parliament's debates with the Minister of Electricity [has led to] a failure in the performance of a this large ministry; [however] there is no problem in financing, instead there are substantial financial resources, in Ohdrtha’s ministry, [in spite of] the shapes and forms of different possible references to the records of the House of Representatives. He concluded: “My good brother I can not thank you for the beautiful article published in the newspaper this morning, and thank the efforts of the Central Bank of Iraq, led by my colleague Dr. Shabibi, who testified to his Balalmip [staff?] [of the] professionalism [of his] crew, who run the Central Bank of Iraq and [are fulfilling] the policy to the prestige of the Government and people of Iraq.” [Analysis] We see here that the CBI has come back forcefully in rebuttal to Dr. Abdul Hussein Al-Anbuge, who turns out to be one person instead of two! His role is “economic advisor to the Prime Minister”, which is no small role. But he is clearly overshadowed by the power of the CBI and Shabibi, as indicated in the final paragraph of this article. I have highlighted one paragraph of importance: [He added] that the policy of the Iraqi Central Bank [is] to raise and support the Iraqi dinar; [it] is very important in increasing customer confidence in Iraqi dinars, which contribute to increase the volume of foreign investment and local levels in Iraq, and [this is] the axiom of the theory of money, banking, currency and prestige of the state: [namely] when the currency weakens [there is] less prestige of the state. [He continued] that monetary policy should be supportive of government activity, but not at the expense of the rates of the local currency. The primary function of the CBI is to “raise and support the Irai dinar” according to their own statement. Furthermore, this is “axiomatic” for the prestige of the government. The bottom line here is clear: there will be a revaluation of the currency to raise its value for the specific purpose of developing the Iraqi economy and enhancing the prestige of the country. Steve
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