An Ephinany! I Believe I Have An Answer To All Our Questions!

[RichNick123]

In October of 2003 under the occupation of the United States a new currency was issued to the nation of Iraq. It seems compatible that the US would use their own guidelines in issuing a new currency and follow their own determination of what denominations to issue based on the current worth of the currency by denomination. This may give us some insight as to where we are currently as well as the need for a R/V or R/I due to the status of the current dinar.

In 2008 the breakdown of currency in the United States was as follows, this is important so stick with me through this. There was 853.2 billion in circulation including federal reserve notes, US notes and currency no longer issued. One has to think that the US in establishing the new currency for Iraq they would follow close to their own monetary disbursement. The breakdown is as follows;

1. 1.00 9.5 Billion

2. 2.00 1.7 Billion

3. 5.00 11 Billion

4. 10.00 16.3 billion

5. 20.00 125.1 billion

6. 50.00 64.7 billion

7. 100.00 625 billion

For the sake of time and the reader I will discount the coinage of the US as from what we understand coins are not in circulation in Iraq presently. However for the sake of this discussion in 2008 coinage in the US totaled as follows:

1. Pennies= 1,650,000,000 ( that's right 1.65 billion dollars in pennies)

2. Nickles= 4,332,000

3. Dimes= 14,600,000

4. quarters= 94,780,000

5. fifty cent pieces= 1,700,000

6. one dollar coins= 322,980,000

This totals 2 billion 88 million 392 thousand in coinage in the US in 2008. Or about 2.5% of the total currency in circulation.

If we extrapolate these numbers to the Iraqi currency it would be as follows; These Numbers will be based on a total of 30 trillion dinar printed and coined, the exact amount is unknown but we have no information since 2003 that further printings or coinage were included in the budget. This is important as we have a definite lifespan of currency with no know infusion of freshly printed currency!!

The coinage represented around 2.5% of the total printed and forged: 750,000,000,000 or 750 billion. These can now be taken out of the equation as they are irrelevant. The 25, 50, and 100 fil coins are worthless at an exchange rate of 1170 to the USD!

The eight Iraqi denominations on paper now come into play. If 30 trillion were printed, with the coinage included, this leaves roughly 29 trillion in paper currency left from the original printing in 2003. Paper and linen currency has a limited lifespan and cannot last forever if circulated. Remind yourself that in Iraq the common citizens trade money daily and currency wears out faster due to wear and tear because of no humidification, air-condition, and the fact that mostly men carry currency in their waistbands which endure sweat and changing climate constantly. The majority of bills issued over the last seven years have passed their life expectancy!

In the US these are the following life expectancy levels for the US issued currency;

1. 1.00 bill= 1.8 years

2. 2.00 bill= N/A

3. 5.00 bill= 1.3 years

4. 10.00 bill= 1.5 years

5. 20.00 bill= 2 years

6. 50.00 bill = 4.6 years

7. 100.00 bill= 7.4 years

Is their anyone on this forum that can defend the position that without additional printing that the Iraqi currency printed in 2003 has not reached it's outer limits of lifetime expectancy? Do you really believe that if more money had not been printed we would not have found it in the budget over the last 7 years? It currently costs on average 6.5 cents per bill to print!

I believe that the Iraqi government has hit the wall with the former printing from De La Rue and absolutely has to bring new currency into the equation. The majority of bills printed in 2003 have totally worn out and have been destroyed causing a lack of paper currency byp today. This could be one of the major reasons for the inflated cost of the lower denominations to purchase from traders as the original printing weighed heavily on the larger denominations due to the exchange rate of .00049 when they were printed.

We are absolutely correct to expect an R/V or R/I as I personally believe the majority of paper bills printed, except the ones held uncirculated by investors, are shot, worn out, and have gone too far past their life expectancy! Refute that you naysayers!

[jlldrs]

Wow, thanks for the post RichNick!

[RichNick123]

We know the original currency was limited in nature, brought into county by C130 military transport planes. Those planes can only carry so much weight and that limited the amount of total currency brought into country.

I will gladly pay 100.00 to any person that can find evidence that since 2003 there has been any further printing of the current dinar. If this cannot be found then we have to ascertain that the currency printed in 2003 is reaching the outer limits of it's lifespan. If this hypothesis is true then Iraq must do something or the money held in country is totally worn out and will soon become useless. Prove me wrong!

[METEMARLO]

this situation has been thought out far more then we can comprehend the govt knows exactly how much currency is in circulation to the pennie and i feel they deceive us on whats really out there all dollars have been accounted for to be able to process the rv . the limit of statutation on the previous admin has run out or about to run out so noting can com back on then in the future this is smart business this plan is alot sharper then we comprehend

[Shinnidan]

*raises hand* ummm...excuse me but....i think you left out the question of "WHEN"?

[Darin]

In relation to our own government and society, we don't use paper currency as much anymore. We generally work with electronic currency via credit/debit. Therefore, our hard currency supply % wise would be far less than a place like Iraq. Most Iraqi's have little faith in the banks and prefer to deal with hard currency. Hence the higher amount of bills that circulate in Iraq. You brought up a very good point, as if no new bills were to be printed, most of these bills would be in the process of becoming damaged, ripped, crumbled up, and likely needing to be replaced. Now, we can only theorize the % of IQD held within the world.

--The central bank of Iraq & banks throughout Iraq likely hold a large %

-- The Iraqi people likely hold & exchange a very large %

-- Foreign Governments likely hold a large % in reserves (I would imagine neighboring countries such as Kuwait, Iran, Turkey, etc hold a large sum)

-- We can also assume that the Foreign Governments could easily include both China & U.S. (I would like to see how much China holds in USD to hold in reserves)

Interesting to think about right?

Lets assume 27 Trillion (27,000,000,000,000) is held outside of the Central bank of Iraq.

If we were to L.O.P, that would become 27 Billion (27,000,000,000)

We know a rough estimate Pre-War was 200 Billion of Old IQD, right? A LOP would put their money supply less than what they held before (Value-Wise)

We could argue that they would be introducing new lower denominations to replace the current dinar, but, in my opinion they would have to introduce many more bills because 27 Billion in currency isn't a whole lot (Especially valued at $0.86 to the USD)

We can do the math and come up with a rough estimate that 27Billion IQD would equal roughly 24Billion USD.

Do a Google search and find the richest corporations in the world. - By no surprise, Wal-Mart is leading #1 - We could of all guessed that right? But what follows in 2nd, 3rd, & 4th are as follows.

Exxon, Shell, & BP. Pretty sure they have enough power & money to have some pretty substantial control if they wanted, huh?

Would it be wise for Iraq to let their total currency holding be roughly worth 24 billion USD?

We can also look at this, we know that the population of Iraq is roughly 30 Million people, right? Well if we divide out 24B by 30M, we roughly get 800 USD per person.

Here is another interesting thought... Iraq was about to purchase some planes from the U.S., but was unable to do so as it needed to allocate funds to feed their people. If they were looking to re-denominate, they would have to incur costs of millions of dollars to introduce new bills. And the main goal to RD is for citizens to carry less paper-cash. Interesting how they would spend so much money to create new currency to not change the value of 1 IQD when most are starving, hungry, etc. From what I re-call, the notes created by De La Rue were roughly $0.07 per bill. Imagine the amount of money that would cost to print bills to basically replace the entire New IQD currently in circulation, than consider transportation with security to all banks within the M.E. And how would you gain the trust of Iraqis with the dinar if they have to go through entire process of exchanging once again...

It is one of the reason(s) I think a LOP would not make entire sense at the moment..(Regardless of current low inflation)

Now, we can argue that to RV, they would need to introduce new denominations as well.... Well, here is the beauty of that.. As they RV, introduce new LDs and let the CBI buy/sell IQD as the value rises, profits made from there could include paying for the issuing & printing of new bills. Maybe they extend the PIPs just a little bit more.. (Not sure how that process works, but it was merely just a thought)

Interesting on how they will go forward with this. It would be nice to see that they simple RV roughly $0.86 to $1, for simple reasons... Educating the people would come with ease. It would be low enough to buy/sell as the value increases. It would be easy for the people, as they would relate the IQD to the value of the USD. But I am by no means an economist expert....

But I do know something we can all agree upon.. That the IQD is basically undervalued...

[Ore]

The eight Iraqi denominations on paper now come into play.

There are 7 IQD note in circulation, not 8:

http://www.cbi.iq/index.php?pid=Banknotes

But..

We know the original currency was limited in nature, brought into county by C130 military transport planes. Those planes can only carry so much weight and that limited the amount of total currency brought into country.

I will gladly pay 100.00 to any person that can find evidence that since 2003 there has been any further printing of the current dinar. If this cannot be found then we have to ascertain that the currency printed in 2003 is reaching the outer limits of it's lifespan. If this hypothesis is true then Iraq must do something or the money held in country is totally worn out and will soon become useless. Prove me wrong!

The following CIPE Economic File, states:

"The three guests from the Central Bank discussed the bank’s

plan to enhance the Iraqi banking sector and financial markets

throughout 2006. They highlighted a series of steps that have

already been taken, including:

• Establishing the Central Bank’s independence from the

Ministry of Finance

• Training 70% of the bank’s staff on international best

practices

• Printing a series of 14 new Iraqi Dinar notes and coins

http://www.cipe.org/regional/mena/iraq/pdf/bttv_synopsis_ep6.pdf

The other 7 denominations could only be the low denominations, such as 1/2, 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100.

That counts as any further printing of the current dinar after 2003. You can send my $100 via paypal

Ps. Only because of that file, which proves that they already have the full set of currency needed (Even post RV), is the only reason I'm inclined to believe they wont do a traditional lop; just phase out the larger not from circulation...

[randalln]

There are 7 IQD note in circulation, not 8:

http://www.cbi.iq/in...p?pid=Banknotes

But..

The following CIPE Economic File, states:

"The three guests from the Central Bank discussed the bank’s

plan to enhance the Iraqi banking sector and financial markets

throughout 2006. They highlighted a series of steps that have

already been taken, including:

• Establishing the Central Bank’s independence from the

Ministry of Finance

• Training 70% of the bank’s staff on international best

practices

• Printing a series of 14 new Iraqi Dinar notes and coins

http://www.cipe.org/...ynopsis_ep6.pdf

The other 7 denominations could only be the low denominations, such as 1/2, 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100.

That counts as any further printing of the current dinar after 2003. You can send my $100 via paypal

Ps. Only because of that file, which proves that they already have the full set of currency needed (Even post RV), is the only reason I'm inclined to believe they wont do a traditional lop; just phase out the larger not from circulation...

steps that have

already been taken, including: this was them explaining what had already been done in 2003-2004 in the beginning all the bills and coins were released i have them at my house there are 7 coins starting at 1 fiel's 10,25,50,1dinar 25,,100

[tommyboy]

We know the original currency was limited in nature, brought into county by C130 military transport planes. Those planes can only carry so much weight and that limited the amount of total currency brought into country.

I will gladly pay 100.00 to any person that can find evidence that since 2003 there has been any further printing of the current dinar. If this cannot be found then we have to ascertain that the currency printed in 2003 is reaching the outer limits of it's lifespan. If this hypothesis is true then Iraq must do something or the money held in country is totally worn out and will soon become useless. Prove me wrong!

Seems really strange to me that so many in this microcosm of people on DV hold brand new, crisp 25K dinar notes that were all printed in 2003 and have never seen circulation.

[hoosier1470]

I would pay someone a hundred dollars if they could get me just ONE of each of the uncirc. lower denom. notes!!! Would love to also have some of the coins!! Not withstanding the imminent value of the currency, I personally think the money itself is very beautiful! If it were no for the fact that the 25k notes are going to hold such great value, I would love to frame one of each denom. paper note, and a collection of each one of the coins to hang in my office! Might sound kinda foolish, but it would definately make a good conversation piece...and something to show our grandchildren and their children!! Just a silly thought! The Very Best Wishes, and God's Blessing upon each and every one of us!!!

[randalln]

I would pay someone a hundred dollars if they could get me just ONE of each of the uncirc. lower denom. notes!!! Would love to also have some of the coins!! Not withstanding the imminent value of the currency, I personally think the money itself is very beautiful! If it were no for the fact that the 25k notes are going to hold such great value, I would love to frame one of each denom. paper note, and a collection of each one of the coins to hang in my office! Might sound kinda foolish, but it would definately make a good conversation piece...and something to show our grandchildren and their children!! Just a silly thought! The Very Best Wishes, and God's Blessing upon each and every one of us!!!

all the low denom i have except the 50's and 250, are coins, but i will be back home in a few months i would be more than happy thats the same thing i did i might just have a few extras also have lots of old swiss and Sadom currency all the way up to 250,000 but not unciculated. The coins are gem1 in rolls got them before they pull them in 04'

The 5 10 20 notes not released yet

[RicknSaudi]

We know the original currency was limited in nature, brought into county by C130 military transport planes. Those planes can only carry so much weight and that limited the amount of total currency brought into country.

I will gladly pay 100.00 to any person that can find evidence that since 2003 there has been any further printing of the current dinar. If this cannot be found then we have to ascertain that the currency printed in 2003 is reaching the outer limits of it's lifespan. If this hypothesis is true then Iraq must do something or the money held in country is totally worn out and will soon become useless. Prove me wrong!

Great breakdown RN. I do remember reading somewhere that it was 27 loads brought in on 747's. Anyone remember that?

Actually, I found where I read that. The article says that this was originally an essay published in the NY Times,

"...This success paved the way for the second stage of the plan. In only a few months, 27 planeloads (in Boeing 747 jumbo jets) of new Iraqi currency were flown into Iraq from seven printing plants around the world. Armed convoys delivered the currency to 240 sites around the country. From there, it was distributed to 25 million Iraqis in exchange for their old dinars, which were then dyed, collected into trucks, shipped to incinerators, and burned or simply buried."

LINK