Realistic rates

[Grumpy]

My .02 worth on the posible rv rate.

All day long I have sat in chat listening to people come in and out spouting off rumors of $3.86 .04 cheaper than KWD. first of all the rate 1.00 KWD = 3.48675 USD . amazing how easy it was to debunk with one click of the mouse.

IMO and only my opinion, I think we should be looking for a rv anywhere between .10 - the rate of the Euro. Don't get me wrong I would love a $2+ RV but I don't see it happening. First of all Shabibi is a economical genuis, and is going to what is best for Iraq and no one else. I have tried to fight off the notion that anything less than $2 is a joke to Iraq and would embarrass them. Here is why I disagree, why would they RV so we could cash in the 20+ trillion dinars back in when they can just as easily rv at let say .50 and force a time limit to cash in?

After lets say 60days they have two choices, a second rv or allow the currency to float and climb rather quickly IMO. Its simple math, recieve 70-80% of currency back in at .50 and float. The least amount of currency out, the stronger the currency.

Lets hear your opinions.

[Capt1va]

makes sense

[shoma629]

The logic is perfectly sound, but for our sake I hope your wrong.

[mrsrb]

Forget about the dinars owned by the private sector and remember about the millions & billions owned by countries. The higher the rate, the more the Iraqi's can make on the oil they'll be selling to interested countries. A lower rate means they get less for the oil they'll be selling soon.

[brianlpn]

I would say that i agree, knowing that Shabibi gas publicly stated that he does not like speculative investors. However, if he choses to come out at say .50, the wealthy are going to go on a buying spree of major proportions knowing that a rapid float to a much higher value or a straight up rv to a higher value looms in the very near future. That much of a run on their currency by new speculators, IMO, is very likely to surpass the current speculative holdings and in the end net them nothing with respect to the circulation amount. IMO, they will come out at 1.50 to 2, to get a large cash in and prevent a huge new bach of speculators b4 rv'ing again at a higher rate.

[Miss Muffet]

New here Grumpy,

I keep thinking of Chapter 7 and the requirements of a recognizeable stable currency for getting out of Chapter 7. If they come out at a lower rate then rv later at a higher rate, would that meet Chapter 7 requirements? If they do rv lower, would they have to wait till they are out of Chapter 7 to do another rv?

The other thought I think of is the GCC requirements for their currency to become a full member of GCC.

Thank you for listening to my chatter.

[Grumpy]

The logic is perfectly sound, but for our sake I hope your wrong.

For all our sakes I hope I am wrong too!

[warrengz]

I would say that i agree, knowing that Shabibi gas publicly stated that he does not like speculative investors. However, if he choses to come out at say .50, the wealthy are going to go on a buying spree of major proportions knowing that a rapid float to a much higher value or a straight up rv to a higher value looms in the very near future. That much of a run on their currency by new speculators, IMO, is very likely to surpass the current speculative holdings and in the end net them nothing with respect to the circulation amount. IMO, they will come out at 1.50 to 2, to get a large cash in and prevent a huge new bach of speculators b4 rv'ing again at a higher rate.

This sounds more logical and sound. They want to be globally recognized and I don't think Shabibi would want his folks to look "under valued" to the world. JMO

[Grumpy]

New here Grumpy,

I keep thinking of Chapter 7 and the requirements of a recognizeable stable currency for getting out of Chapter 7. If they come out at a lower rate then rv later at a higher rate, would that meet Chapter 7 requirements? If they do rv lower, would they have to wait till they are out of Chapter 7 to do another rv?

The other thought I think of is the GCC requirements for their currency to become a full member of GCC.

Thank you for listening to my chatter.

Being released from ch7 and the first RV I think will go hand and hand, but not 100% sure on that one. If they come out first with a low RV I wouldn't be surprised to see a time limit and a second RV to meet the GCC requirement

my .02 thats worth a penny

[kelsguy1113]

several things to think about... first, if they rv too low, those who have the power to buy up a bunch (hedgefunds, etc.) will slaughter the dinar. Investors make up very little of the over all picture. those who run the major funds will buy massive amounts at anything less that $2 simply on speculation alone.

Second, go to Bank of America's currency exchange sight. the Kuwait Dinar is listed and $3.87. one click proves that this isn't a joke. it is a real rate.

i don't think shabbs is worried too much about Iraqi pride. He knows that if the rate is not carefully released and moderately high, the dinar will be bought up in massive quantities at the expense of future value.

[investor7]

"All day long I have sat in chat listening to people come in and out spouting off rumors of $3.86 .04 cheaper than KWD. first of all the rate 1.00 KWD = 3.48675 USD . amazing how easy it was to debunk with one click of the mouse."

They are probably getting the $3.90 rate here: https://www.foreignexchangeservices.com/rate/rate.html?partnerid=FES

Its the real deal. My Kuwaiti friend visits home several times a year and on his last visit he noticed a rather large difference in the exchange rate. He says the traders are still showing $3.49 but you cant buy it for that. If you go to an exchange location the rate will be $3.90. I don't have an explanation for this but this link is to Wells Fargo foreign exchange and I hear Bank of America's site is the same.

[Grumpy]

the 3.87 is with their spread built in, sorry

[mariejose]

time will tell--hopefully the telling will be soon

[jo-jack]

I'll take .10 cents anyday, hope its more then that though

[investor7]

the 3.87 is with their spread built in, sorry

I knew you were going to say that. Try a little more research before making a quick conclusion. Go to your favorite FX sites and write down the listed exchange rates of several currencies including the KWD. then take those numbers to WF you will find they are all about the same except the KWD, it went up about .40 a few weeks ago. Other people on this site are aware of this if you go to the older posts you will find it mentioned. BTW, I have purchased many currencies for my collection as well as foreign travel and a 40 cent per Dinar spread is a no go. Sorry

[DgreenFSU66]

ok, for all you pennies on the dollar RV guys... answer this= say they RV for .20Cents.... How much can they make off of a barrel of oil?

now, say they RV for the Euro Rate of 1.48, now how much is that 80 US Dollars a barrel oil worth????

[Grumpy]

Oil transactions are done in USD now....

[spurgen]

I did some math with all that going on with iraq econ. I keep comimg up with 2.4something....

[msm2137]

I have some questions.... Why would we have to cash in????? I understand getting they need all the big bill turned in, but why couldn't you exchange your big bills for smaller ones and sit on your currencey? If you cashed in for smaller currency then you would be able to exchange at will and if you exchanged $1000.00 at a 1 to 1 rate you wouldn't have to claim it for taxes. I admit I'm not very smart so this is just a thought. To God be the glory.

[EddieX]

So people still think there are 20T NID in the hands of the public? Governments own a big percentage of that and they have some deals in place like trade for oil, etc.

Also not everyone will cash out all at the same time.

Most bank transactions are electronic, not everyone here is going to cash out at the same time and build a Scrooge McDuck money bin to hold their cash with armed guards and dobermen with grenades in their mouths.

Banks will hold money, governments will hold money.

RV at 10 cents and there will be even more money in circulation because then the investors jump in. Right now it's speculators but if you allow investors to come in too, then you flood the market with monopoly money.

But people will continue to compare Iraq to Cambodia and all those other places that don't have their resources and I'm not just talking oil.

10 cents isn't going to help Iraq either. They do have bills to pay and a government to rebuild. We're talking about a country that has to rebuild.

They've been fighting for an RI for years, they're not going to accept 10 cents and neither will I

Not that I have anything to do with the decision.

Follow the breadcrumbs people. Follow the breadcrumbs...

[SBX]

Oil transactions are done in USD now....

But PAID in dinar...the contracts are written in USD amounts...but paid to Iraq in DINAR

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[allIneedisonemillionusd]

Being released from ch7 and the first RV I think will go hand and hand, but not 100% sure on that one. If they come out first with a low RV I wouldn't be surprised to see a time limit and a second RV to meet the GCC requirement

my .02 thats worth a penny

A double RV, in which the first is low; "to bring in our big bills", would be suicide for Iraq, the large (think Countries/Hedge funds) would buy on the speculation of the second RV. The speculators (us) are not even a drop in the bucket when it comes to holding IQD. We aren't part of the decision process for the RV. IMHO

[Fummins]

Im still sticking to 1.33

[War Eagle]

Folks; the OIL is sold in DOLLARS-has NOTHING to do with the rate or the currency!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!