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I believe the Iraqi Dinar

will revalue in 2011. The revalue rate will be around $.10 per dinar to start if we are lucky. The reason

is simple, discouraged people sell quickly and the smart money will buy it. The true mark up will happen

after the public has sold out. News will hit us from all angles regarding iraq as an investment and people

will gladly pay more to get the currency. My educated guess is that the mark up may take month's but

you can bet surely that the Dinar will return to it's pre war exchange rates or higher. The problem is

that most of the public will be worn out by the wait and will sell out at lower levels. This is the normal

function of anything marketable including currency. Not very many folks will have the staying power to

withstand the whipsaw and churning affect of the Forex so that only those in the know will actually

make big money. Having said this, I would recommend to anyone holding Dinars to be patient and

don't sell out quick. You may get a good return by selling that will justify your initial investment and

after the price has been pegged for so long it will be easy to pull that trigger.

In a nutshell, don't sell simply because the Dinar revalues because the mark up will come later!

The smart money is invested like us at these cheep levels and we can sell right along with them

when the time is right. :);)

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I believe the Iraqi Dinar

will revalue in 2011. The revalue rate will be around $.10 per dinar to start if we are lucky. The reason

is simple, discouraged people sell quickly and the smart money will buy it. The true mark up will happen

after the public has sold out. News will hit us from all angles regarding iraq as an investment and people

will gladly pay more to get the currency. My educated guess is that the mark up may take month's but

you can bet surely that the Dinar will return to it's pre war exchange rates or higher. The problem is

that most of the public will be worn out by the wait and will sell out at lower levels. This is the normal

function of anything marketable including currency. Not very many folks will have the staying power to

withstand the whipsaw and churning affect of the Forex so that only those in the know will actually

make big money. Having said this, I would recommend to anyone holding Dinars to be patient and

don't sell out quick. You may get a good return by selling that will justify your initial investment and

after the price has been pegged for so long it will be easy to pull that trigger.

In a nutshell, don't sell simply because the Dinar revalues because the mark up will come later!

The smart money is invested like us at these cheep levels and we can sell right along with them

when the time is right. :);)

NEWBIE, WHERE IN THE HECK DID YOU GET THIS INFO???? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Edited by mrref
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We are obviousely in a bottom with the Iraqi Dinar and most folks are impatiently waiting to cash in at RV.

Imagine how tough it will be to hang on and sell at the higher levels. Don't procrastinate selling when the time is

right but don't sell the currency to cheaply either. This is a hard game to win if you want the big dollars but

with a little temper and time

you will do fine

and that would be devine! :D

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NEWBIE, WHERE IN THE HECK DID YOU GET THIS INFO???? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

Your probably right, but don't need to be so harsh.

"my educated guess" I know this is supposed to be some kind of disclaimer.

Just curious are you just smarter than me, or more educated? I'm not saying it's not possible.

But you'll need to back this up somehow.

The second to last sentence is something like

"don't cash in immmediatley....it will go up"

What if your wrong?

What if your doing harm to some one more nooby than you?

Just try to keep your opinions more "opiniony" and in the right place please. IMO

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It Will Not Come Out At 10 cents.

That would Be Dumb. At 10 cents that would give to many rich people to buy at 10 cause they would know it will be going up!

So it would be suicide for iraq to come out so cheap.

It will be more than $1.00

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My thought, (not that it is even worth 2 cents) is when it does R.V. no matter what it comes in at, the large bills will go first. It would be smart to trade a little in to cover investment and the aggravation I have put up with for nearly 7 years. The rest I will trade out for smaller denomonations. Say 1,000,000.00 dinar in 25,000.00 notes to 1,000,000.00 dinar in 100 dinar notes.

If it does come out at only .10 then it will surely rise in value. Iraq does not want their dinar worth less than Kuwaits or I wouldn't think they would anyway.

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Everything here is just speculation, no one really knows when or if it's going to happen or what the rate is when it actually happen.

So everyone just be cool and do what you believe in. You are entitle to your opinion.

My opinion is if the money tied up in Dinar isn't hurting you. you just hang on. It may just pay off in time.

Good luck to all,,,happy new year..

I also believe that Dinar will RV by suprise, no one can predict when and how much.

Good luck again,,,hope RV comes before I.....

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It Will Not Come Out At 10 cents.

That would Be Dumb. At 10 cents that would give to many rich people to buy at 10 cause they would know it will be going up!

So it would be suicide for iraq to come out so cheap.

It will be more than $1.00

Why are the rich people waiting now then? If your theory holds true, the rich would be buying dinar by the crate full now for .0085

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I kinda agree with Labdog regarding if it hits the open market in a free float that it will go up in value and most people will sell out bc their heart cant handle being in the investment any longer. And you cant blame them for that. For other people that are a little riskier, will prolly hold and see how the market reacts. At what price and when it comes out no one knows. But IMO if it does play out this way, I would sell out of my physical IQD put the cash in a U.S. currency account and rebuy the dinar. This way if something were to happen like a civil war then at least you sold out of it. Better to have the cash in hand then reinvest in Iraq then hold the physical dinar and have something happen. IMO. I could be off a little with this but it's the strategy I would look into. I know i'll be deemed a Newbie but have been in and closely followed this investment for over year now. So basically cash in when you can and then reinvest. IMO

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Common Sense and 35 years of trading commodities and currencies :blink:

labdog, i agree with you, it will take time for iraq to build infrastructure, and bring their black gold to market in a significant way. The up side potn is huge, BUT WILL TAKE TIME!!! This also supports the theory of "no get rich quick schemes" Again, this is an opinion, and is not worth much, so dont get your link happy undies in a bunch!!! jr

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labdog --

There is logic in what you say.

And it makes sense in principle.

Several Points :

1. It is very difficult for non-wealthy people

to not take at least something off the table

when they realize an 10,200 % positive profit

return or more for the first time. [ 1170 IQD - 1 USD --> 10 IQD to 1 USD ]

2. A very experienced commodities [ including currencies ] trader

gave a very detailed explication and justification recently on this site

why he believes the RV when it happens will be between $ .74

and $ 1.13 .

His argument is a strong one indeed.

3. Since the majority of numerical events seem to be explainable

mathematically,

It makes sense that at 1170 IQD to the dollar [ USD ] xrate,

the risk reward ratio [ RRR ] favors the oil - driven currency.

At 10 IQD or 1 IQD or more to 1 USD, the RRR definitely is more risky

than at 1170 to 1.

To optimize the RRR, it is ok to take something off the table

at these higher ratios.

And since numerical events often regress to the mean

and Newton's Law of Gravitational Attraction often applies

to numerical events as well,

there is very little harm in taking something off the table

at say 10 IQD to 1 USD or 2.5 IQD to 1 USD.

Let's hope we get to these RRR's this year !!

Just throwing this out there.

Nothing wrong with your thinking IMHO.

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I am a newbie and have had iraqi Dinars when you could only buy them in Texas

and then Jordan, Chicago and finally EBay. I remember the full page adds with

USA Today in 2004 and actually pulling the trigger to buy a million when coworkers

thought I was crazy. You could not find many places selling the NID anywhere.

They, by the way, lost thousands in the recent market downturn with mutual funds.

I have lost thousands in stocks and commodities and real estate over the years. I have

also made money in markets by realizing and not picking the bottoms. Simply by

keeping cool and having patience has paid off. My education is limited but growing.

I don't profess to be an expert but thought I would join the chat simply to express

an opinion. I feel great about this investment and as a friend of mine pointed out,

buying the Iraqi Dinar is certainly not as risky as derivitives, shorting the market,

put options and lottery tickets. The downside is limited, the dinars won't expire worthless

and the upside is out of this world. THAT'S A GOOD INVESTMENT!!

So happy new year to all and may the RV be a real asset builder for all :)

I am a newbie and have had iraqi Dinars when you could only buy them in Texas

and then Jordan, Chicago and finally EBay. I remember the full page adds with

USA Today in 2004 and actually pulling the trigger to buy a million when coworkers

thought I was crazy. You could not find many places selling the NID anywhere.

They, by the way, lost thousands in the recent market downturn with mutual funds.

I have lost thousands in stocks and commodities and real estate over the years. I have

also made money in markets by realizing and not picking the bottoms. Simply by

keeping cool and having patience has paid off. My education is limited but growing.

I don't profess to be an expert but thought I would join the chat simply to express

an opinion. I feel great about this investment and as a friend of mine pointed out,

buying the Iraqi Dinar is certainly not as risky as derivitives, shorting the market,

put options and lottery tickets. The downside is limited, the dinars won't expire worthless

and the upside is out of this world. THAT'S A GOOD INVESTMENT!!

So happy new year to all and may the RV be a real asset builder for all :)

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It Will Not Come Out At 10 cents.

That would Be Dumb. At 10 cents that would give to many rich people to buy at 10 cause they would know it will be going up!

So it would be suicide for iraq to come out so cheap.

It will be more than $1.00

The first good comment of the thread... I am inclined to agree that somewhere near the dollar or euro makes the most sense. If it came in at a dime I'd cash in a portion and buy lots more... B)

Remember all...

You cannot invest in speculative markets...

thinking small.

Don't spend your grocery budget or your utilities money and most certainly don't spend more than you would throw away on entertainment or be willing to lose. Everything has a place... so KEEP IT THERE. :D

Why are the rich people waiting now then? If your theory holds true, the rich would be buying dinar by the crate full now for .0085

Because most of the "rich" got that way through hard work and wise investing. Their belief system does not tend to include currency speculation. Most of the wealthy I know are hard and fast dyed in the wool believers in blue chips, and they do not handle their money carelessly. However, let some of them see an upturn with potential and I'd bet the sharks in bloodied water mentality just may set in with some of them. The opinions I have heard from several wealthy people is that currency markets are HIGHLY speculative at best... B)

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Why are the rich people waiting now then? If your theory holds true, the rich would be buying dinar by the crate full now for .0085

Because they dont believe in this miracle that is going to take place. If Anyone were to tell a millionaire about this they would think you were nuts.

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The first good comment of the thread... I am inclined to agree that somewhere near the dollar or euro makes the most sense. If it came in at a dime I'd cash in a portion and buy lots more... B)

Remember all...

You cannot invest in speculative markets...

thinking small.

Don't spend your grocery budget or your utilities money and most certainly don't spend more than you would throw away on entertainment or be willing to lose. Everything has a place... so KEEP IT THERE. :D

Because most of the "rich" got that way through hard work and wise investing. Their belief system does not tend to include currency speculation. Most of the wealthy I know are hard and fast dyed in the wool believers in blue chips, and they do not handle their money carelessly. B)

I disagree. Many, many successful currency speculators take risks.

There are economic reasons Iraq would want to come out a low rate and float it up slowely over time, first and foremost, it would be much, much cheaper for them to do it that way. Obviously, the other way they can do it is to come out at a much higher rate, which would in turn pull the 000's out of the market and they can move to a smaller currency (notes), but would be very costly for them to do it this way. The only difference between the 2 is it would take longer to get their currency to their end goal value if they came out low, but they can deal with that because it will save them boatloads of money. There would be a lot of speculators that will bail at .10 and they (Iraq) know it. Not saying thats whats going to happen, noone know what they will do. I myself and prepared for the low offer option as economically, it makes a lot of sense for them to do that... Many many smart currency investors actually think it could come out even lower than .10. JMO

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NEWBIE, WHERE IN THE HECK DID YOU GET THIS INFO???? :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

He probably got it from common sense and staying away from the kool-aid.

Remember, Iraq is basically a "new country" in terms of the world financial market, they're pumping a fraction of their oil capabilities (that amounts to 95% of their GDP), their infrastructure is barely above the level of a third world country, the past 10 months has proven they're still politically unstable compared to countries like SA, Kuwait, Oman, etc.

Great post Lab!

It Will Not Come Out At 10 cents.

That would Be Dumb. At 10 cents that would give to many rich people to buy at 10 cause they would know it will be going up!

So it would be suicide for iraq to come out so cheap.

It will be more than $1.00

uh - yea ..... it's designed that way. All the low level investors would cash in .... the "rich people" would hold out and buy more .... making the currency stronger and more desireable!

Edited by CaptainJack
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I disagree. Many, many successful currency speculators take risks.

There are economic reasons Iraq would want to come out a low rate and float it up slowely over time, first and foremost, it would be much, much cheaper for them to do it that way. Obviously, the other way they can do it is to come out at a much higher rate, which would in turn pull the 000's out of the market and they can move to a smaller currency (notes), but would be very costly for them to do it this way. The only difference between the 2 is it would take longer to get their currency to their end goal value if they came out low, but they can deal with that because it will save them boatloads of money. There would be a lot of speculators that will bail at .10 and they (Iraq) know it. Not saying thats whats going to happen, noone know what they will do. I myself and prepared for the low offer option as economically, it makes a lot of sense for them to do that... Many many smart currency investors actually think it could come out even lower than .10. JMO

One of my comments was that you cannot enter the speculative markets thinking small...

The other had nothing to do with currency speculators. It was in response to the question as to the "rich". MOST wealthy people did not become wealthy in the speculative markets. MOST wealthy people became so due to frugal personal lifestyles, extremely shrewd and intelligent money management strategies and a great deal of hard work. I do not intend to argue the reasons why Iraq would want to come out low or high. It is pure conjecture on your part to state that it is the prevalent and logical course. We disagree on the most likely course of action. So what? Does it really matter? I bought lots of dinar in what I believed was a fair and equitable deal. If it does come in at a dime. Whoopeeee! My ROI will have been huge. I do not look at whether I will become wealthy from this. I look at ROI (for the newbies who may be wondering... ROI = Return On Investment)

As for your comment about investors bailing at $.10... I couldn't agree more. In fact, this very morning a co-worker asked for my opinion in the matter. My opinion is that there are people reading this very post who purchased dinar with money they could not afford to spend, all in the hope of getting rich quick. There are disgruntled people living so very near the edge of financial ruin that they do not even realize they are on the wrong side of the precipice. They are one pay check away from losing everything and some have even lost their check and are losing everything as you and I bat ideas around. These are the ones who will "bail at .10".

If it comes in at that rate without a window and floats over a period of months or years. Fine by me. I simply do not think that is likely due to the potential of fractional banking on the larger scale. As you say, JMO... B)

He probably got it from common sense and staying away from the kool-aid.

Remember, Iraq is basically a "new country" in terms of the world financial market, they're pumping a fraction of their oil capabilities (that amounts to 95% of their GDP), their infrastructure is barely above the level of a third world country, the past 10 months has proven they're still politically unstable compared to countries like SA, Kuwait, Oman, etc.

Great post Lab!

uh - yea ..... it's designed that way. All the low level investors would cash in .... the "rich people" would hold out and buy more .... making the currency stronger and more desireable!

I think you are largely correct in this, however, SA and Oman are poor examples for comparative analysis where political stability is implied. SA is a kingdom, Oman is a sultanate, and the ruling class controls everything in or out, all the way down to the value of their currencies.

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lab --

In response to your post on Jan. 3 on this topic :

Most things in life are a gamble.

I try to make calculated guesstimations

in my investing life.

While I have alot of experience,

it is still a crapshoot.

We know Iraq is sitting on a serious

oil reserve.

And in theory our own govt.

and other G7 nations as well as China

and the other BRIC's have alot at stake in Iraq, too.

We know the country is trying to establish

some semblance of a reasonable governing body.

Pureau makes some very good points

in the posts on this topic.

I believe it is best to put both our feet forward

and move forward.

I also believe this is what we are all doing.

Regards,

jimmey

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