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Scooter's Chat 11-10-2010 9:30am PST

buckwheat

By buckwheat,
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buckwheat Newbie

buckwheat

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[scooter] When i first got into this investment -- I rant the technicals and thought to be lucky at .15

[scooter] it made sense and it would take decades of rebuilding

[scooter] I mean the budget itself shows a low ceiling, medium ceiling and and high ceiling

[scooter] so here's where it got interesting for me

[scooter] because I would still be happy at .25

[scooter] but

[scooter] when looking at the goals of the project

[scooter] my mindset changed a bit

[scooter] I mean -- if you were to open this bad boy up on the forex market today

[scooter] it would be looooooow

[scooter] .25

[scooter] and let it grow naturally

[scooter] however, the rules of engagement, IMO, are different

[scooter] The reasoning -- take it for what it's worth --- is the world bank DPL, IMF, and UN

[scooter] have set the PILLARS or Goals

[scooter] and the strategy has been centered around a "TRANCHE"

[scooter] a single or double economic explosion

[scooter] to help the people of iraq

[jordan1] Scooter how soon after the goi is formed do you realitically expect an rv? many say immediately i feel that is not probable , what do you think ?

[scooter] with that said

[scooter] jordon1 -- it won't be immediate

[scooter] but i don't think it will be far after either

[scooter] I think they need to be internatinally playing by end of year

[scooter] period

[scooter] I'm still trying figure out how they are getting out and surviving those derivative contracts

[scooter] those have expired -----

[scooter] Hey EE

[jordan1] Scooter what happened to isx going live , and all the oter timelines that have gone by ?

[scooter] How can they survive and purchase goods and services in this mode

[scooter] they can't

[scooter] but

[scooter] getting back to the strategy

[scooter] Remember, the goals

[scooter] 1. Help the people of Iraq get out of poverty -- it's criminal IMO for a country of this type of wealth

[scooter] to have so many uneducated kids and families living off of $2.00 a day

[scooter] The US back in 1990

[scooter] outsourced to Rand Corp.

[scooter] to build a plan

[scooter] that would transform the middle east

[scooter] and the way they were going to do this was through building the lifestyle for the people

[scooter] that's conducive to the rest of world

[scooter] with that said

[scooter] they also wanted to isolate Iran

[scooter] now

[scooter] getting back to point

[scooter] if the tranche strategy works

[scooter] They would need to come out with a new CPI

[scooter] Consumer Price Index

[scooter] which they have and it's ready right now

[scooter] This CPI is positioned really for the Mid tier type of deployment of this RV

[scooter] The 2010 Budget Law called the deal for me

[scooter] The investment portion is based on the nominal rate

[scooter] The nominal rate is the one we see right now

[scooter] The nominal rate is the one we see right now

[scooter] somewhere around there

[scooter] now

[scooter] this doesn't mean they will come out that high

[scooter] because they have a huge problem with the circulation that's out there

[scooter] so then the question becomes -- How would they deploy this RV to take care of that excess

[scooter] circulation of the 1000's series notes

[scooter] That's where it gets interesting

[scooter] and nobody -- i mean nobody knows

[scooter] so --- we have the Strategic Goals to build an economic powerhouse in the Middle East

[scooter] and they have been toying with a single Tranche or multi layered tranche

[scooter] so for example -- they may have multiple RV's over the next 18 -24 months

[scooter] it would make sense

[scooter] iraq would recover the large bills slowly and gradually get themselves to meet the new CPI they have built

[scooter] Also

[scooter] remember the secondary goals

[scooter] they need to be range trading with low volatility for at least a year in order to join the GCC

[scooter] that puts a timeline of being in the higher range by 2014

[scooter] With that said the model changes a bit

[scooter] starting out low --- below the .5 marker

[scooter] they would never make it in time

[scooter] so we crawl up the ladder using standard Fibronachi growth rules

[scooter] kind of like two steps forward and one step back

[scooter] bumping the number to 1.13 --- 1.45 -- plausible

[scooter] where the sweet spot comes in

[scooter] is the mid tier

[scooter] In fact, I was stunned when Phoenix came out with his rate

[scooter] because model moves nicely in the 1.65 - 2.25 range

[scooter] and then the 2010 budget law came out

[scooter] with the Bahraini Dinar at 2.55 and the investment portion at the nominal rate

[scooter] The average of the sum of both Operational and Investment budgets

[scooter] was 2.05

[scooter] That's when my head perked up

[scooter] but they still need to

[scooter] figure out what they are going to do with the circulation amount

[scooter] They will need to destroy every note in country immediately if they are to do this -- JMO

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SteveI Newbie

SteveI

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Posted (edited)

[scooter] When i first got into this investment -- I rant the technicals and thought to be lucky at .15

[scooter] it made sense and it would take decades of rebuilding

[scooter] I mean the budget itself shows a low ceiling, medium ceiling and and high ceiling

[scooter] so here's where it got interesting for me

[scooter] because I would still be happy at .25

[scooter] but

[scooter] when looking at the goals of the project

[scooter] my mindset changed a bit

[scooter] I mean -- if you were to open this bad boy up on the forex market today

[scooter] it would be looooooow

[scooter] .25

[scooter] and let it grow naturally

[scooter] however, the rules of engagement, IMO, are different

[scooter] The reasoning -- take it for what it's worth --- is the world bank DPL, IMF, and UN

[scooter] have set the PILLARS or Goals

[scooter] and the strategy has been centered around a "TRANCHE"

[scooter] a single or double economic explosion

[scooter] to help the people of iraq

[jordan1] Scooter how soon after the goi is formed do you realitically expect an rv? many say immediately i feel that is not probable , what do you think ?

[scooter] with that said

[scooter] jordon1 -- it won't be immediate

[scooter] but i don't think it will be far after either

[scooter] I think they need to be internatinally playing by end of year

[scooter] period

[scooter] I'm still trying figure out how they are getting out and surviving those derivative contracts

[scooter] those have expired -----

[scooter] Hey EE

[jordan1] Scooter what happened to isx going live , and all the oter timelines that have gone by ?

[scooter] How can they survive and purchase goods and services in this mode

[scooter] they can't

[scooter] but

[scooter] getting back to the strategy

[scooter] Remember, the goals

[scooter] 1. Help the people of Iraq get out of poverty -- it's criminal IMO for a country of this type of wealth

[scooter] to have so many uneducated kids and families living off of $2.00 a day

[scooter] The US back in 1990

[scooter] outsourced to Rand Corp.

[scooter] to build a plan

[scooter] that would transform the middle east

[scooter] and the way they were going to do this was through building the lifestyle for the people

[scooter] that's conducive to the rest of world

[scooter] with that said

[scooter] they also wanted to isolate Iran

[scooter] now

[scooter] getting back to point

[scooter] if the tranche strategy works

[scooter] They would need to come out with a new CPI

[scooter] Consumer Price Index

[scooter] which they have and it's ready right now

[scooter] This CPI is positioned really for the Mid tier type of deployment of this RV

[scooter] The 2010 Budget Law called the deal for me

[scooter] The investment portion is based on the nominal rate

[scooter] The nominal rate is the one we see right now

[scooter] The nominal rate is the one we see right now

[scooter] somewhere around there

[scooter] now

[scooter] this doesn't mean they will come out that high

[scooter] because they have a huge problem with the circulation that's out there

[scooter] so then the question becomes -- How would they deploy this RV to take care of that excess

[scooter] circulation of the 1000's series notes

[scooter] That's where it gets interesting

[scooter] and nobody -- i mean nobody knows

[scooter] so --- we have the Strategic Goals to build an economic powerhouse in the Middle East

[scooter] and they have been toying with a single Tranche or multi layered tranche

[scooter] so for example -- they may have multiple RV's over the next 18 -24 months

[scooter] it would make sense

[scooter] iraq would recover the large bills slowly and gradually get themselves to meet the new CPI they have built

[scooter] Also

[scooter] remember the secondary goals

[scooter] they need to be range trading with low volatility for at least a year in order to join the GCC

[scooter] that puts a timeline of being in the higher range by 2014

[scooter] With that said the model changes a bit

[scooter] starting out low --- below the .5 marker

[scooter] they would never make it in time

[scooter] so we crawl up the ladder using standard Fibronachi growth rules

[scooter] kind of like two steps forward and one step back

[scooter] bumping the number to 1.13 --- 1.45 -- plausible

[scooter] where the sweet spot comes in

[scooter] is the mid tier

[scooter] In fact, I was stunned when Phoenix came out with his rate

[scooter] because model moves nicely in the 1.65 - 2.25 range

[scooter] and then the 2010 budget law came out

[scooter] with the Bahraini Dinar at 2.55 and the investment portion at the nominal rate

[scooter] The average of the sum of both Operational and Investment budgets

[scooter] was 2.05

[scooter] That's when my head perked up

[scooter] but they still need to

[scooter] figure out what they are going to do with the circulation amount

[scooter] They will need to destroy every note in country immediately if they are to do this -- JMO

I hope you do not mind, but I formatted this so I could read it better. I hope this does not offend anyone and apologize in advance if it does.

[scooter]

When i first got into this investment -- I rant the technicals and thought to be lucky at .15 it made sense and it would take decades of rebuilding I mean the budget itself shows a low ceiling, medium ceiling and and high ceiling so here's where it got interesting for me because I would still be happy at .25 but when looking at the goals of the project my mindset changed a bit I mean -- if you were to open this bad boy up on the forex market today it would be looooooow .25 and let it grow naturally however, the rules of engagement, IMO, are different The reasoning -- take it for what it's worth --- is the world bank DPL, IMF, and UN have set the PILLARS or Goals and the strategy has been centered around a "TRANCHE" a single or double economic explosion to help the people of Iraq.

[jordan1]

Scooter how soon after the goi is formed do you realitically expect an rv? many say immediately i feel that is not probable , what do you think ?

[scooter]

with that said jordon1 -- it won't be immediate but i don't think it will be far after either I think they need to be internatinally playing by end of year period I'm still trying figure out how they are getting out and surviving those derivative contracts those have expired ----- Hey EE

[jordan1]

Scooter what happened to isx going live , and all the oter timelines that have gone by ?

[scooter]

How can they survive and purchase goods and services in this mode they can't but getting back to the strategy Remember, the goals

1. Help the people of Iraq get out of poverty -- it's criminal IMO for a country of this type of wealth to have so many uneducated kids and families living off of $2.00 a day The US back in 1990 outsourced to Rand Corp. to build a plan that would transform the middle east and the way they were going to do this was through building the lifestyle for the people that's conducive to the rest of world with that said they also wanted to isolate Iran now getting back to point

if the tranche strategy works

They would need to come out with a new CPI (Consumer Price Index) which they have and it's ready right now This CPI is positioned really for the Mid tier type of deployment of this RV The 2010 Budget Law called the deal for me The investment portion is based on the nominal rate The nominal rate is the one we see right now The nominal rate is the one we see right now somewhere around there now this doesn't mean they will come out that high because they have a huge problem with the circulation that's out there so then the question becomes -- How would they deploy this RV to take care of that excess circulation of the 1000's series notes That's where it gets interesting and nobody -- i mean nobody knows so --- we have the Strategic Goals to build an economic powerhouse in the Middle East and they have been toying with a single Tranche or multi layered tranche

so for example -- they may have multiple RV's over the next 18 -24 months it would make sense iraq would recover the large bills slowly and gradually get themselves to meet the new CPI they have built Also remember the secondary goals they need to be range trading with low volatility for at least a year in order to join the GCC that puts a timeline of being in the higher range by 2014 With that said the model changes a bit starting out low --- below the .5 marker they would never make it in time so we crawl up the ladder using standard Fibronachi growth rules kind of like two steps forward and one step back bumping the number to 1.13 --- 1.45 -- plausible where the sweet spot comes in is the mid tier

In fact, I was stunned when Phoenix came out with his rate because model moves nicely in the 1.65 - 2.25 range and then the 2010 budget law came out with the Bahraini Dinar at 2.55 and the investment portion at the nominal rate The average of the sum of both Operational and Investment budgets was 2.05 That's when my head perked up but they still need to figure out what they are going to do with the circulation amount They will need to destroy every note in country immediately if they are to do this -- JMO

Edited by SteveI
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MicBain Newbie

MicBain

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Posted

Sorry I have ADD............Anything over two sentences I lose it. :blink:

haha I hear ya! lol this stuff has my head spinning too. No biggie, just let the show go on. I'm just planning on a staggered cash in, as it sounds like the rate is going to go up over months/year. Thanks all

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carolina.broker Newbie

carolina.broker

Posted
Posted

Thanks Scooter and thanks for posting Buck I have to tell you scooter... I don't have your experience with the FOREX or international monetary polices, but I always have had a hard time wrapping my head around an $3.00 plus RV. The argument was always investors would come in and buy up the Dinar if it came in too low. Well... so what? It still pumps trillions into their economy right? I just believe that a country's GDP (gross domestic product) has to be the determining factor. How can one price something on potential? No one knows what oil prices will be next year or two years from now.

My theory has always been a dollar or just below and a managed float over a period of time as Iraq's infrastructure and GDP grows. It could take 5 or more years to reach it's full potential... how many years will it take to hit 12 million barrels a day? That may be the answer.

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CaptainJack Newbie

CaptainJack

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From my understanding, they wouldn't survive at 0.05.... check it out:''...below the .5 marker they would never make it in time so we crawl up the ladder using standard Fibronachi growth rules kind of like two steps forward and one step back bumping the number to 1.13 --- 1.45 -- plausible where the sweet spot comes in is the mid tier In fact, I was stunned when Phoenix came out with his rate because model moves nicely in the 1.65 - 2.25 range and then the 2010 budget law came out with the Bahraini Dinar at 2.55 and the investment portion at the nominal rate The average of the sum of both Operational and Investment budgets was 2.05 That's when my head perked up...''

Sager, ..... they've been surviving for how long at less than $0.01 .... I took it as starting at $0.05 as well .... not ideal and retirement material, but realistic. Hold on to your dinar if you choose to and can .... if everything goes well (BIG IF) 2014 is very realistic for a rate where we'd like.

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homerunhit Newbie

homerunhit

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Posted

Thanks Scooter and thanks for posting Buck I have to tell you scooter... I don't have your experience with the FOREX or international monetary polices, but I always have had a hard time wrapping my head around an $3.00 plus RV. The argument was always investors would come in and buy up the Dinar if it came in too low. Well... so what? It still pumps trillions into their economy right? I just believe that a country's GDP (gross domestic product) has to be the determining factor. How can one price something on potential? No one knows what oil prices will be next year or two years from now.

My theory has always been a dollar or just below and a managed float over a period of time as Iraq's infrastructure and GDP grows. It could take 5 or more years to reach it's full potential... how many years will it take to hit 12 million barrels a day? That may be the answer.

Your comments are exactly what I was thinking. Thanks for posting them in such a professional manner. I still hope for more than a dollar, though, so I like hearing solid arguments for a higher rate.

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SFMS Newbie

SFMS

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Scooter...Thanks for the post...just hope people will have enough wisdom to cash in soundly in the event the Dinar is projected to go up over time...Don't forget to take care of you & yours first and have the investment take care of you for the rest of your life then and only then your charities and play toys...just a suggestion...GO RV

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hspotman Experienced

hspotman

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Posted

How realistic is to expect that a great host of investers will cash in below $1.00 if they realistic expect it to go higher even if at a slow pace over the next three years.

Here's a question for you, cgb, or anyone else who may know, and don't bash people(well, I don't RGAF, lol), do as you do....

-What is to keep them from keeping the rv low, as to not let us infidels get alot of $$, then just raise the rate when the higher denoms are deemed worthless? I mean....if they will be worthless on said date, then why raise the rate to bring the 000's in? Has this been discussed and dismissed already somewhere? If so, sorry, but this has kinda been on my mind :unsure:

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