Oil markets are waiting for big cuts in OPEC

[yota691]

Iraq decides to voluntarily reduce its oil production by 211 thousand barrels per day

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[yota691]

Iraq decides to reduce production by 211 thousand barrels per day

 

April 2, 2023

Baghdad/Obelisk:

The Ministry of Oil decided to reduce production voluntarily at a rate of 211 thousand barrels per day, starting from next May until the end of 2023.

He follows

[yota691]

Iraq voluntarily reduces oil production

The first  04/03/2023

 

 

 Baghdad: morning

 

Yesterday, Sunday, the Ministry of Oil decided to voluntarily reduce its production by 211,000 barrels per day, starting from next May until the end of this year.

 

Iraq followed Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Algeria, bringing the total voluntary reduction to about 1.071 million barrels per day, while Russia extended its production cut by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023.

 

The Ministry of Oil stated, in a statement, that this is “with the aim of taking precautionary measures to face the challenges facing the global oil market, and to achieve a balance between supply and demand and market stability,” noting that this came “in coordination with some oil-producing countries, and in a manner that does not contradict the previous reduction policy.” ".

[yota691]

A jump in oil prices after a sudden announcement by OPEC + to cut production

2023.04.03 - 12:53

 

Baghdad - Nas  

Oil prices rose on Monday, posting the largest daily increase in nearly a year, after the sudden announcement of the OPEC + alliance to cut production further confused the markets.  

  

  

  

Brent crude jumped $4.33, or 5.4%, to $84.22 a barrel by 0900 GMT, after touching a one-month high of $86.44 earlier in the session.  

  

US West Texas Intermediate crude also rose $4.17, or 5.5%, to $79.84 a barrel, after earlier hitting the highest level since late January.  

  

The OPEC + alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, rattled the markets by announcing a deeper production cut of about 1.16 million barrels per day on Sunday.  

  

The OPEC+ alliance was expected to maintain its previous decision to cut production by two million barrels per day until December at its monthly meeting on Monday.  

  

The new announcement raises the total OPEC+ production cuts to 3.66 million barrels per day, according to Reuters calculations, equivalent to 3.7 percent of global demand.  

  

As a result, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut its forecast for OPEC+ production by the end of 2023 by 1.1 million barrels per day and raised its forecast for the Brent crude price to $95 a barrel in 2023 and $100 in 2024, it said in a note.  

  

Reuters  

[yota691]

Washington is the first to comment on the voluntary “OPEC +” oil production cuts

2023.04.02 - 22:26

 

Baghdad - Nas  

A spokesman for the US National Security Council commented, on Sunday, on the announcement by several oil-exporting countries within the "OPEC +" alliance, of a voluntary cut in oil production.  

  

  

  

Reuters quoted John Kirby as saying (April 2, 2023), "The Biden administration will continue to work with all producers and consumers to ensure that the oil market supports economic growth and lower prices for American consumers."  

  

"The Biden administration is focused on pricing for American consumers," he added.  

  

Today, several oil-exporting countries within the "OPEC +" alliance announced a voluntary cut in oil production, from next May until the end of 2023, in a move aimed at "achieving balance in the oil market."  

  

The countries that announced this decision are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Algeria and Kazakhstan  

  

Last October, OPEC + decided to cut production by about two million barrels per day, and expectations were that the alliance would maintain this level at its scheduled meeting tomorrow.  

  

Oil prices fell last March to their lowest level in about 15 months due to unrest in the banking sector, and although prices recovered relatively last week, Brent crude is still below the level of $80 a barrel.  

[yota691]

After Iraq.. Six countries decide to reduce their oil production

• Time: 04/02/2023 17:30:33
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• Read: 2,535 times

  

{International: Al Furat News} Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Algeria and Russia announced a voluntary cut in oil production from next May until the end of this year, within the framework of maintaining market stability.

 

And the Iraqi Ministry of Oil announced the decision to reduce voluntary production at a rate of 211 thousand barrels per day, starting from next May until the end of 2023,
while Suhail bin Muhammad Faraj Faris Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure in the UAE, announced that his country will voluntarily reduce its oil production by 144 thousand. Barrels per day, starting from next May until the end of the current year 2023, in coordination with some of the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement.
He added, in a statement, that this voluntary cut is a precautionary measure taken to achieve balance in the oil market, in addition to that it comes within the framework of the production cut agreed upon at the thirty-third ministerial meeting of OPEC +, which was held on October 5, 2022. It is worth noting
that “OPEC +” is scheduled to hold a meeting of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee tomorrow, Monday, via visual communication techniques.
For its part, the Saudi Ministry of Energy announced that the Kingdom will voluntarily reduce its oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day, starting from May until the end of 2023, according to official media.
The ministry confirmed, in a statement, that the production cut is a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.
While Alexander Novak, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, confirmed that his country will implement a voluntary cut in its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. Likewise,
Oman announced a voluntary reduction in oil production by about 40,000 barrels per day, starting from May until the end of 2023, and also announced Algeria reduced its production by 48,000 b/d during the same period.

[yota691]

Exciting predictions after the “voluntary oil cut”

• Time: 04/02/2023 19:39:29
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• Read: 2,236 times

  

{Economic: Al Furat News} The oil market is heading for a huge increase in oil prices, following the decision of 7 countries in the OPEC + alliance to reduce production by more than 1.5 million barrels per day, starting from next May until the end of the year.

 

The forecast went as far as predicting a jump of $10 a barrel, according to analysts quoted by Reuters.
The decision is expected to lead to a rise in oil prices once the markets open for trading on Monday.
Oil prices rose by more than a dollar per barrel at the end of the last trading session (last Friday), recording gains for the second week in a row.
Brent crude futures for June delivery rose $1.29, or 1.6%, to settle at $79.89 a barrel.
Brent contracts for May delivery, which expired at settlement, rose 50 cents, or 0.6%, to $79.77 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery rose $1.30, or 1.8%, to $75.67.
Today, 7 countries of the OPEC + coalition decided to reduce their oil production "voluntarily" simultaneously and in a coordinated manner, anticipating the results of the official meeting of the alliance tomorrow.
7 countries participated in the reduction, with a total of 1.571 million barrels / day, led by Russia, to extend its decision to reduce production by 500 thousand barrels per day from June until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia also participates in reducing 500 thousand barrels per day, then
Iraq by reducing 211 thousand barrels per day, then the UAE A reduction of 144 thousand barrels per day.
Kuwait also participates in reducing production by 128 thousand barrels per day, Algeria by 48 thousand barrels per day, and finally Oman by 40 thousand barrels per day.

[yota691]

Expert: Reducing OPEC + production will return oil to $100 a barrel

• Time: 04/02/2023 23:33:36
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• Read: 2,379 times

  

{Economic: Al Furat News} The head of the Center for Energy Development, Kirill Melnikov, said that the decision of some OPEC + countries to cut production voluntarily from May to the end of 2023 should return oil prices to the range of 80-100 dollars per barrel.

According to Melnikov: By its decision, OPEC+ countries have proven that they are ready to protect the oil price at $80 a barrel in the face of uncertainty in the economies of Western countries and potential threats of a broadening banking crisis in the United States and the European Union.

He said: "A reduction of 1.5 million barrels per day during the period of growth in the usual demand for fuel in the northern hemisphere should support prices and bring them back to the range of 80-100 dollars per barrel, as well as send a clear signal to market participants that the cartel will not allow prices to fall."

At the same time, Melnikov stressed that the OPEC+ countries are not interested in the emergence of a deficit in the oil market. The expert admitted that the coalition countries that supported the voluntary reduction in production may reconsider their decision in the third quarter of 2023.

"Despite the announcement of the reduction before the end of the year, it is clear that OPEC + countries can quickly and without prior announcement adjust their production plans in order to maintain the price level in a comfortable range between $80 and $100 per barrel for Brent," he said.

For Russia, according to Melnikov, the decision announced by several OPEC+ countries to cut production carries positive news, because this will lead to a reduction in the Russian Urals crude discount and reduce the risk of losing market share as a result of the voluntary production cut of 500,000 b/s that began in March. "At the same time, it takes time to understand to what extent OPEC countries such as Iraq will be practically ready to cut production by a fairly large declared amount (about 200,000 barrels per day)," the expert added.

production cuts

On Sunday, some OPEC+ countries announced a voluntary cut in oil production from May to the end of 2023. The total cut, including Russia's share, could reach more than 1.5 million b/d. Accordingly, Saudi Arabia will reduce production by 500 thousand b/d, the United Arab Emirates - by 144 thousand b/d, Iraq - by 211 thousand b/d, Kuwait - by 128 thousand b/d, and Oman - by 40 thousand b/d. Y, Algeria - by 48 thousand b / d, Kazakhstan - by 78 thousand b / d, and Russia will extend its current decision to reduce production by 500 thousand b / d until the end of June, and it is valid until the end of 2023.

[yota691]

“OPEC +”: the size of the voluntary oil production cut will be 1.66 million barrels

• Time: 04/03/2023 14:53:43
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• Read: 273 times

  

{Economic: Al Furat News} According to the statement of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of the “OPEC +” alliance, the additional voluntary reduction in oil production will be 1.66 million barrels per day.

According to the statement, the members of the Joint Ministerial Committee for Production Monitoring in “OPEC Plus” reaffirmed their commitment to declaring cooperation that will continue until the end of 2023 AD, as agreed upon at the thirty-third ministerial meeting of OPEC member states and participating countries from outside it, which took place on May 5. October 2022 AD. 

The meeting noted the following voluntary production adjustments announced on April 2, 2023 by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (by 500,000 barrels per day), the Republic of Iraq (by 211,000 barrels per day), the United Arab Emirates (by 144,000 barrels per day), and the State of Kuwait. (by 128 thousand barrels per day), the Republic of Kazakhstan (by 78 thousand barrels per day), the Republic of Algeria (by 48 thousand barrels per day), the Sultanate of Oman (by 40 thousand barrels per day), and the Republic of Gabon (by 8 thousand barrels per day), which will apply Starting from May until the end of 2023 AD. These adjustments will be in addition to the production adjustments agreed upon at the 33rd Ministerial Meeting of OPEC member states and non-OPEC participating countries.

The statement stated that the aforementioned amendments will be in addition to the voluntary amendment announced by the Russian Federation, by 500 thousand barrels per day, until the end of 2023 AD, which will be from the average production levels as estimated by secondary sources for the month of February 2023 AD.

The meeting indicated that this step is a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of oil markets.

The forty-ninth meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee to Monitor Production is scheduled to be held in June 2023.

[yota691]

Oil experts: The decision to cut production is "positive" and supports reviving the budget

Economical  04/04/2023

 

 

 Baghdad: Ali Muwaffaq 

 

In a "fragile" budget that relies on exporting crude oil as a main source of revenue, oil experts believe that the decision to reduce oil production within the sudden agreement announced by a group of exporting countries is positive in terms of benefiting from high prices and achieving balance in global markets.

 

This comes after the continuous decline that occurred in recent times, but they did not rule out at the same time its risks, as it would harm Western countries, led by the United States. 

 

The Ministry of Oil attributed the reason for Iraq's accession to this decision, which will be implemented from next May until the end of 2023, to the fact that it comes as part of the precautionary measures to face the challenges facing the crude market and achieve balance and stability between supply and demand.

 

And 9 countries from (OPEC Plus) announced simultaneously and unexpectedly a reduction in oil production by about 1.65 million barrels, distributed by 500 thousand barrels per day from Russia and the same amount from Saudi Arabia, 211 thousand from Iraq, 144 thousand from the Emirates and 128 thousand from Kuwait, in addition to 48 thousand barrels. From Algeria, 78 thousand from Kazakhstan, 40 thousand from the Sultanate of Oman, and 8 thousand barrels from Gabon. 

 

The economist and oil expert, Nabil Al-Marsoumi, said: The decision of (OPEC Plus) to reduce production by more than 1.6 million barrels per day comes for possible economic and political considerations, but it contributed to an increase in the price of Brent crude by about $ 5 from 79 to 84 dollars, and it is consistent with the behavior of producers who aim to maximize their profits. This is what really happened in the short term.

 

He explained that the decision to reduce production with the intention of raising prices will harm global economic growth, especially since Western countries are currently suffering from a crisis of stagflation, which may lead in the medium term to weak global demand for oil and lower prices, in addition to the risk of losing (OPEC Plus) its shares. market in the future and another related to the possibility of enacting the (NOPEC) law that allows US individuals and companies to sue oil producers who intervene to raise prices.

 

And Al-Marsoumi indicated that Iraq’s decision to reduce its production of crude oil from next May to the end of 2023 by 211 thousand barrels per day was surprising, with other cuts by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Emirates, Oman and Algeria amounting to 1.071 million barrels per day, in addition to Russia’s reduction of its production by about 500 thousand barrels. daily to stabilize global oil prices. 

 

He stressed that this measure might be fraught with danger, fearing a possible American reaction that might harm these countries, including Iraq.

 

The cuts came in the wake of a sharp decline in oil prices last month, after the collapse of the American “Silicon Valley” bank and the compulsory acquisition of “Credit Suisse” by “UBS”, which raised fears of a “bank collapse” infection spreading in global financial markets and a decline Great demand for crude oil.

 

For his part, oil expert Hamza Al-Jawahiri said: OPEC will not acquiesce to America's policy, which continued to pump large quantities of oil, ranging from one million to one and a half million barrels per day, to the markets from its strategic reserves in order to reduce prices and set them according to what it deems appropriate for it.

 

He stressed that America's price control affects OPEC's sovereignty, as the organization seeks to maintain market balance and price stability at $80 a barrel, which is fair to producers and consumers alike.

 

He added that OPEC has understood America not to manipulate and control the oil market alone, and that the organization is responsible for the economy of the member countries and will continue to monitor the markets.

 

He pointed out that the United States continues to pump oil from its strategic reserves, despite the significant decrease in its storage, as it reached its lowest level in 38 years, and it continues to do so in order to confront OPEC, which is more like a war.

 

Al-Jawahiri stressed that Iraq will not be affected by this reduction, because the increase in oil prices will cover the reduction and more.

 

And he added that the days have proven that the economies of the West cannot stand without cheap oil prices at less than 60 dollars, stressing that the West's endeavor to reduce oil prices is not a condition, but rather a goal for these countries, and this matter is the beginning of this strong attack on oil prices and (OPEC). Despite the reassurances of (OPEC) and the recovery of the Chinese economy, the issue is related to the West's economy in general, which cannot resist prices above $60.

 

In a first reaction to the decision, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council said in a statement that the recently announced cuts by OPEC countries were "illogical", given the uncertainty in the market.

 

Oil prices jumped yesterday, Monday, at the beginning of weekly trading, by more than 6 percent, hours after members of the “OPEC Plus” alliance announced a voluntary cut in production, as Brent crude futures for June delivery rose to $ 84.96. 

per barrel.

[yota691]

After the "OPEC Plus" decision... Who are the countries most affected by the expected "explosion" of the oil price?

• Time: 04/06/2023 13:58:36
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• Read: 572 times

  

{Economic: Al Furat News} In light of the concerns raised in the markets about the rise in oil prices and the price of a barrel reaching $100, reports indicate that the OPEC + decision will not harm the United States of America as much as it will cause more harm to other countries.

The sudden reduction of production by OPEC and its allies led to a rise in oil prices, and analysts say that major oil importers such as India, Japan and South Korea are among the most affected if prices reach $ 100 a barrel, according to a report by "CNBC".

And OPEC + announced, on Sunday, a production cut of 1.16 million barrels per day, in a move that the oil markets did not expect.

Therefore, economist Pavel Molchanov said that "the decision (affects) every oil-importing economy."

He added, "It is not the United States of America that is most affected by the price of a barrel of oil reaching $100. Rather, it will be countries that do not have domestic petroleum resources, such as Japan, India, Germany, France, and several countries."

According to the "CNBC" report, the countries most affected by the reduction in oil supply and the expected rise in prices are those that enjoy a high degree of dependence on oil imports in their energy systems.

This means that the most exposed are emerging markets that depend on imports, as well as countries with heavy industries that depend on heavy imports such as Japan and South Korea.

According to CNBC, India, the third largest oil consumer in the world, has been buying Russian oil at a huge discount since the imposition of sanctions on Russia. According to government data, India's imports of crude oil increased by 8.5 percent in February compared to the same period last year.

Although India benefits from cheap Russian gas, it will be affected by the high price of oil, and the growth of its economy will be affected.

For Japan, oil is the most important source of energy, and Japan relies heavily on crude oil imports, with between 80 percent to 90 percent coming from the Middle East.

In South Korea, oil constitutes the bulk of its energy needs, and it, like Italy, relies more than 75 percent on imported oil. According to "CNBC", the OPEC + decision will severely affect Europe and China.

And some emerging markets that do not have sufficient reserves in foreign currencies to support imports, will be negatively affected by the $100 per barrel price.

Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are also likely to be hit hard.

And while the $ 100 price of a barrel of oil looms on the horizon, it may not continue at this level, according to CNBC.

In a coordinated manner, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Kuwait, the Sultanate of Oman and Algeria decided to reduce their daily production by a total of more than one million barrels per day, according to AFP.

The decision will take effect next May until the end of this year, and it is the largest production cut since the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC + coalition) in October 2022 to cut two million barrels per day.

The cuts represent less than 5 percent of Saudi Arabia's average production of 11.5 million barrels per day in 2022, according to the Associated Press.

Iraq announced that it would reduce production by 211,000 barrels per day, the UAE by 144,000, Kuwait by 128,000, Kazakhstan by 78,000, Algeria by 48,000, and Oman by 40,000.

As for OPEC +, the group that includes OPEC and allies, including Russia, agreed on Sunday to increase crude oil production cuts to 3.66 million barrels per day, or 3.7 percent of global demand.

Saudi Arabia justified the decision, explaining that voluntary production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day, in addition to the current cuts of two million barrels per day, are a precautionary measure aimed at supporting market stability.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the crisis of Western banks was one of the reasons for the cut as well as "interference in market dynamics", a term used by Moscow to describe the ceiling imposed by the West on Russian oil prices.

And while US President Joe Biden, on Monday, downplayed the move, saying: “It will not be as bad as you think.” The Secretary-General of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), Jamal Al-Loughani, feared the approval of the law to prevent monopolistic blocs for the production and export of oil. Known as (Nubic).

And he considered that if approved by the US authorities, the inability of supplies to meet future demand in the global oil market will result significantly.

He said that the global market suffers from limited spare production capacity due to the lack of investment in the oil sector, which was exacerbated by attempts to dispense with fossil fuels.

It is noteworthy that on March 8, a group of US senators from both the Republican and Democratic parties said that it had reintroduced a bill to put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to make it stop cutting production, according to Reuters.

If the committee, the Senate and the House of Representatives pass the bill and Biden signs it, NOPEC would change the US antitrust law to withdraw the sovereign immunity that protects members of the OPEC + group and its national oil companies in lawsuits over “collusion” in prices.

[yota691]

Oil closes stable, but it is gaining for the third week, after the OPEC + decision

2023.04.07 - 10:25

 

Baghdad - people  

Oil prices closed little changed on Thursday, but recorded gains for the third week in a row, as markets oscillated between further production cuts targeted by OPEC+ and falling US oil inventories on the one hand, and concerns about the global economic outlook on the other.  

 

  

  

Brent crude closed up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $85.12 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude closed up nine cents, or 0.1 percent, to settle at $80.70. and a day off on Good Friday.  

  

The two benchmarks jumped more than six percent this week after OPEC +, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, surprised the market on Sunday with pledges to cut production.  

  

Hedge funds have been buying crude all week, returning to a "risk on" mode, said Dennis Kessler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.  

  

Prices were supported by a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude inventories last week, the second consecutive week in which they have declined. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, indicating higher demand.  

  

However, the gains were curtailed by US labor market data, which indicated a slowdown in economic growth, as well as slower-than-expected growth in the services sector in the United States.  

  

Reuters  

[ronscarpa]

Oil fluctuates between rising to $100 with the Taiwan crisis, and the possibility of falling again

EconomyBreakingOil Prices

 

2023-04-09 at 12:57

 

Shafaq News / OPEC + announced a reduction in its daily production by 1.65 million barrels per day, to push oil prices up strongly and to produce many angry statements from the American side, which fears that this increase will affect the already high inflation rates in the United States. 

 

But the question is now, after the downward spiral has subsided, traders are looking at oil with a question: Will it continue to rise, taking advantage of the new geopolitical tensions between China and America due to the Taiwan Peninsula, or will prices gradually decline again?

 

Major banks in America raised their oil price forecasts, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), immediately after the OPEC+ cut, yet many traders still believe that the tense economic outlook will prevent the group's actions from pushing prices higher. The dial indicators also started flashing warning signs.

 

It may end up becoming the ultimate test of what matters most to the market: tightness in supplies, or a lackluster demand picture. This is likely to lead to more uncertainty about the direction of prices - a complex development for the Federal Reserve and the world's central bankers in their ongoing battle against inflation.

 

"It's a very difficult market to trade at the moment," said Livia Gallarati, chief analyst at Energy Aspects. “If you are a trader, you are sandwiched between what is happening on a macro level and what is happening fundamentally. They are two different directions.”

One thing is certain: a major shift in market control has now been cemented in the hands of Saudi Arabia and its allies, with massive ramifications for geopolitics and the global economy.

 

Investors have continued to reward US drillers for production discipline, making it unlikely that shale companies will again undertake the kind of turbulent growth that helped keep energy inflation tame in the past decade. This leaves the oil market under the supervision of OPEC + at a time when some experts predicted that demand is heading to a record level.

 

"The sudden OPEC cuts have already raised fears of a return to inflation," said Ryan Fitzmaurice, lead trader at commodity brokerage Marex Group Plc. "These renewed concerns about inflation should only increase" in the coming months, he added. Below we take a look at the most important things that traders will look at in the coming period.

 

summer demand

The timing of the OPEC decision struck an odd chord for many oil experts.

 

The production cuts will not take effect until May, and much of the fallout is likely to be felt in the second half of the year. This is when oil demand usually reaches its seasonal peak, due in part to the busy summer driving season in the United States. It is also the point where China's economic reopening is expected to start swinging at full swing, which should further support demand.

 

Normally, OPEC would like to take advantage of this sudden depreciation by selling into the market as much as possible. Instead, a cut means the cartel is backing off. This sparked debate about whether the move would eventually drive oil prices to $100 a barrel as demand soared, or whether the union and its allies were, instead, preparing for a summer slump of tepid consumption.

 

"While the OPEC+ cuts surfaced are viewed as generally bullish, they also raise concerns about the demand outlook," said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING. “If OPEC+ is confident of a strong demand outlook this year, will they really feel the need to cut supplies?

Movements in global fuel markets underline demand uncertainties. While oil prices have risen, moves on refined products have been less pronounced, squeezing profit margins for refiners (TADAWUL:2030) across Europe and the United States. In Asia, diesel prices, a major refining product, point to growing fears of a slowdown as spreads narrow to their lowest levels since November.

futures curve

Talk of $100 oil has been hype since the end of last year, but the can seems to keep getting bigger. First, some analysts expected prices to get that far in the second quarter of 2023. Supply has been pushed into the second half of the year, and now even some of the biggest bulls don't expect the magic number to appear until 2024.

 

The oil futures curve reflects that expectation. Contract prices linked to deliveries through December 2024 and 2025 have risen, even as the benchmark receipt-month futures contract has begun to decline.

 

“The OPEC+ production cut certainly raises the possibility of $100 a barrel this year, although it is by no means certain,” said Harry Altham, analyst at brokerage StoneX. "Clearly, demand-side weakness stemming from growth considerations plays a more prominent role."

 

https://shafaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/النفط-يت-رجح-بين-الصعود-للـ100-دولار-مع-زمة-تايوان-واحتمال-الهبوط-من-جديد

Edited April 10, 2023 by ronscarpa

[MommaMia]

Have you ever notice for 3 to 4 decades before Trump 2017/2018 gas prices have alway increased every spring and summer roles around? Then again it started all over again in 2021!!!

 

great leader Biden and his regime are killing us in our pockets and it is their intention so that you and me become slaves into the left wing Democrat terrorist or maybe should say mentally I’ll. 

 

[yota691]

Oil rises as investors balance between OPEC + production cuts and interest rate concerns

2023.04.11 - 12:20

 

Baghdad - people  

Oil prices rose, on Tuesday, as market participants assessed the OPEC + decision to cut production, which would reduce supplies in the market, in exchange for concerns about raising interest rates, which is likely to harm demand.  

  

 

  

Investors are awaiting this week a set of reports about inflation, supply and demand in the oil market, which may determine the direction of the market.  

  

Brent crude rose eight cents to $84.26 a barrel by 0004 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 11 cents to $79.85 a barrel.  

  

Oil prices fell on Monday, after rising for three consecutive weeks, after US jobs data indicated a lack of employment, which raised expectations of another increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (the US central bank), which may lead to a decline in demand for oil.  

  

Expectations of a rate hike boosted the dollar index on Monday and Tuesday, which could put pressure on oil prices, as the rise of the dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.  

  

Oil futures have risen more than five percent since the OPEC + group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, announced last week a new round of production cuts starting in May, surprising the markets.  

  

As for supply in the United States, US crude inventories data is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Five analysts polled by Reuters predicted that crude inventories fell by an average of 1.3 million barrels during the week ending April 7.  

  

The US inflation report is due out on Wednesday and is expected to help investors determine the path of interest rates in the short term.  

  

A monthly report is also expected from OPEC on Thursday and the International Energy Agency on Friday to update forecasts for oil demand and supply.  

  

Reuters  

[yota691]

OPEC keeps its outlook for oil markets unchanged

• Time: 04/13/2023 14:59:33
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• Read: 455 times

  

{Economic: Al Furat News} The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated, on Thursday, the risks of a decline in oil demand in the summer, due in part to the sudden cuts in targeted production announced by OPEC + producers on the second of April, although the organization kept On its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2023.

“The estimate for global oil demand growth for 2023 remains unchanged from last month’s estimate at 2.3 million barrels per day, or 2.3 percent,” OPEC said in its monthly report, published Thursday.

It also indicated that the Chinese demand for oil will rise by 760,000 barrels per day in 2023 (from 710,000 barrels per day in its previous forecast).

OPEC also kept its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 at 2.6 percent, noting that there are downside risks.

OPEC also maintained its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2023 at around 1.4 million bpd, unchanged from last month.

It said that the production of OPEC member states declined in March by about 86 thousand barrels per day during March to 28.8 million barrels per day.

The United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana are expected to be the main drivers of oil supply growth, while the decline is expected to occur mainly in Russia. Large uncertainties remain about the impact of projected US shale oil production in 2023.

Several oil exporting countries within the OPEC + coalition, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, announced on Sunday, April 2, a voluntary cut in oil production, by 1.657 million barrels per day, from next May until the end of 2023, in a move aimed at “achieving balance.” In the oil market.” Saudi Arabia and Russia’s share of the voluntary cut amounted to 500,000 barrels per day each.

[yota691]

Oil is rising

• Time: 04/14/2023 08:12:18
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{Economist: Al Furat News} Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Friday, after falling 1 percent in the previous session, as the market evaluated supportive supply conditions ahead of the International Energy Agency's monthly demand forecast.

Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $86.26 a barrel. 

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 20 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $82.36 a barrel.

Prices were supported by expectations of a supply shortage due to expected lower production in Russia.

"Russian exports are showing signs of declining, with production reported to have shrunk by 700,000 barrels per day," analysts from ANZ Bank said in a note to clients on Friday morning.

On the demand side, investor interest is focused on the International Energy Agency's monthly oil market report due later on Friday, with the agency likely to cut its global demand forecast due to faltering macroeconomic growth.

The monthly report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), released on Thursday, cited risks of lower oil demand in the summer, attributing it to weaker growth, tightening monetary policy and instability in the global financial sector.

However, Chinese trade data released on Thursday showed crude oil imports rising 22.5 percent year-on-year in March, boosting hopes for China's economic recovery.

The slightly higher levels of prices on Friday came at the end of a week in which the two benchmarks reached their highest levels in more than two months, thanks to data showing slowing US inflation and a weak dollar.

WTI has jumped 2% since the start of the week, while Brent crude has risen 1.3%, both recording gains for the fourth straight week.

The dollar index closed yesterday, Thursday, at its lowest level since the beginning of February, after the release of consumer and producer price data in the United States this week, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) is nearing the end of the rate hike cycle.

A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated oil cheaper for investors who hold other currencies, boosting demand.

[yota691]

Oil prices drop, and Brent records 82 dollars per barrel

• Time: 04/20/2023 08:08:31
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{Economic: Al Furat News} Oil prices fell in Asian morning trading, today, Thursday, with the strength of the US dollar, amid expectations of raising interest rates and reducing demand concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 80 cents, or 0.96%, to trade at $82.32 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 69 cents, or 0.87%, at $78.47 by 04:40 GMT.

Both benchmarks, which are falling for a second day after dropping 2% on Wednesday, are at their lowest levels since OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut on April 2.

The US dollar index rose about 0.40% this week. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Although China reported better-than-expected GDP data, both industrial production and fixed-asset investment were lower than agreed, which did not help boost oil prices.

And US economic activity hasn't changed much in recent weeks, with employment growth moderating somewhat and price increases appearing to be slowing.

[yota691]

Oil continues its losses amid fears of recession and slowing demand

2023.04.21 - 09:26

 

Baghdad - people  

Oil prices fell on Friday, continuing the losses of the previous two sessions, and heading towards a weekly decline, as weak US economic data and an increase in US fuel inventories raised concerns about stagnation and slowing demand for oil.  

 

  

  

By 0101 GMT, Brent crude futures for June delivery were down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $80.96 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for June delivery fell 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $77.25 a barrel.   

  

The two raw materials fell by more than 2% to their lowest levels since the end of March on Thursday, amid fears of a possible recession, and are heading towards recording a weekly decline of about 6%.   

  

US Energy Information Administration data revealed on Wednesday that US crude inventories fell more than expected last week with refinery operations (TADAWUL:2030) and increased exports, while fuel stocks unexpectedly rose due to disappointing demand.   

[ronscarpa]

Oil continues to lose

 

 

2023-04-20 at 21:47

 

Shafaq News / Oil prices fell on Friday, continuing the losses of the previous two sessions, and heading towards a weekly decline, as weak US economic data and an increase in US fuel stocks raised concerns about stagnation and slowing demand for oil.

 

By 0101 GMT, Brent crude futures for June delivery were down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $80.96 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for June delivery fell 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $77.25 a barrel.

 

The two raw materials fell by more than 2% to their lowest levels since the end of March on Thursday, amid fears of a possible recession, and are heading towards recording a weekly decline of about 6%.

 

US Energy Information Administration data revealed on Wednesday that US crude inventories fell more than expected last week as refineries were running and exports increased, while fuel stocks unexpectedly rose on disappointing demand.

 

 

https://shafaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/النفط-يواصل-خسا-ره

[ronscarpa]

The Indian market.. Iraq's oil is retreating to the second place after its acquisition of the first for years

 

 

2023-04-24 / 02:02

 

Shafaq News/ OPEC's share of India's oil imports declined at the fastest pace, to its lowest level in at least 22 years, with the increase in the consumption of cheaper Russian oil, so that Iraq's position fell to the second after it was the first over the past years.

 

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), mostly from the Middle East and Africa, saw their share of the Indian oil market drop to 59% in the fiscal year ending March 2023, from around 72% in 2021/22.

 

The data showed that Russia overtook Iraq for the first time in the past fiscal year to emerge as the largest oil supplier to India, pushing Saudi Arabia to third place.

 

OPEC's share has shrunk as India, which in the past rarely bought Russian oil due to high shipping costs, is now the largest oil customer for seaborne Russian oil, which was rejected by Western countries after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

 

The data showed that India shipped about 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2022, about 23 percent of its total imports of 4.65 million barrels per day.

The decision by OPEC and its allies, the group known as OPEC+, to cut production in May could put more pressure on OPEC's share of India, the world's third-largest oil importer, later this year if Russian supplies continue to rise.

 

Analysts believe that Russian crude is already cheaper than similar types in the Middle East, and it seems that OPEC is hurting itself by cutting production and will further erode its market share in Asia.

 

The data showed that the share of the Middle East in 2021/2022 was 64%, while the share of Africa was 13.4%. The share of Latin America also fell to a 15-year low of 4.9% in 2022/23.

 

The data showed that India shipped nearly five million barrels per day of oil per day in March, a slight increase from the previous month, as Russian oil accounted for about 36% of total imports.

 

https://shafaq.com/ar/اقتصـاد/السوق-الهندية-نفط-العراق-يتراجع-للمركز-الثاني-بعد-استحواذه-على-الاول-لسنوات

[yota691]

Iraqi oil expert: The real confrontation between OPEC and America will begin in a few days

2023-04-25 06:18

 

 

Shafaq News/ The oil expert, Hamza Al-Jawahiri, predicted today, Tuesday, that the real confrontation between OPEC and the United States of America will begin in a few days, suggesting that oil prices will rise again.

 

 

 

Al-Jawahiri said in an interview with Shafaq News agency; "What is currently happening in terms of fluctuation in oil prices is a confrontation between OPEC and America," expecting that "this confrontation will not end, as the latter is preparing for the real confrontation that will begin in a few days."

 

He added, "America is currently seeking to reduce oil prices by pumping large quantities of strategic oil reserves that it has into the markets, while OPEC has sought to keep prices within the range of $80 through the voluntary reduction of one million and 660 thousand barrels per day, which will start as of the first of March." next May."

 

Al-Jawahiry expected that "prices will rise again if the voluntary reduction is initiated," adding that "OPEC + knows that this confrontation with America will not end through this reduction, and therefore OPEC studies will take this into account in light of this confrontation."   

 

Crude oil prices rose with OPEC countries, including Iraq, announcing voluntary cuts of more than one million and 600 thousand barrels per day, starting next May, in addition to the previous cuts of two million barrels per day, before losing these gains with the passage of days, with expectations of raising interest rates in America and Europe, which warns of weak global economic growth.

[yota691]

“OPEC” warns international energy against “undermining oil investments”

2023.04.27 - 15:00

 

Baghdad - Nas   

Today, Thursday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned the International Energy Agency against undermining oil investments.  

  

  

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said, in an interview in response to the recent comments issued by the International Energy Agency, which again criticizes OPEC and OPEC +, that “OPEC and OPEC + do not target oil prices, but rather focus only on market fundamentals and enable vital investments in the oil industry that The world desperately needs it."  

Al-Ghais added, “The IEA knows very well that there is a conflicting set of factors that affect the markets, such as the indirect effects of Covid-19, monetary policies, stock movements, trading algorithms, commodity trading advisors, strategic petroleum reserve issues (coordinated or uncoordinated), geopolitics, For example but not limited to".  

He stressed that "pointing fingers and distorting OPEC and OPEC + measures will backfire," stressing that "blaming oil for inflation was wrong and technically incorrect because there are many other factors that cause inflation."  

"Other energy markets have been much more volatile, with oil markets declining, mainly due to the role of OPEC and the OPEC + group in achieving that stability," he noted.  

And he continued: “If there is anything that will lead to future fluctuations, it is the repeated calls from the International Energy Agency to stop investing in oil, knowing that all data-based forecasts envision the need for more of this precious commodity to support global economic growth and prosperity in the coming decades, especially in the developing world”.  

[yota691]

OPEC: The Energy Agency should be careful about undermining oil investments

• Time: 04/27/2023 13:39:16
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• Read: 390 times

  

{Economic: Al Furat News} Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Haitham Al-Ghais, said on Thursday that the International Energy Agency should “be very careful about further (attempts) to undermine” investments in the oil industry, which are investments that are seen as An important issue for global economic growth.

In response to the recent statements of the International Energy Agency, Al-Ghais affirmed that OPEC and the OPEC + alliance do not target oil prices, but rather focus on the fundamental factors in the market and enable investments in the sector that the world desperately needs, and continued that pointing fingers at oil exporters and their allies and distorting their actions will lead to "counterproductive results." ".

And the Secretary-General of OPEC stressed again that blaming oil for inflation is "wrong" and "incorrect from a technical point of view" and many other factors behind inflation.

 Earlier this month, Al-Ghais considered that the decision to voluntarily cut oil production was not part of any OPEC + agreement, but rather a precautionary measure. By many OPEC member countries will exacerbate inflation and cause economic uncertainty.

The latest report of the International Energy Agency showed that the oil production cuts announced by the producing countries in the OPEC + group this month may increase the expected supply deficit in the second half of the year and may harm consumers and the recovery of the global economy.

"Consumers who are facing inflation in the prices of basic materials will now have to squeeze their budgets further," the agency said in its monthly report on oil, adding, "This is strongly reflected in economic recovery and growth."

And the agency stated that it expects a decrease in the global oil supply by 400 thousand barrels per day by the end of the year, indicating an expected increase in production by one million barrels per day from outside OPEC +, starting in March, compared to 1.4 million barrels per day that will be reduced by the producing countries in the group.

Earlier this month, Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency, said that the global oil market will witness a shortage of supplies in the second half of this year, and explained that this matter may push oil prices to rise more than current levels.

[yota691]

Iraq is the biggest reason for the decline in "OPEC" production

2023-05-03 02:25

 

 

Shafaq News/ OPEC's oil production declined for the month of April, with Iraq's exports declining by 80% due to a pipeline shutdown, at a time when a labor strike in Nigeria halted its exports.

The size of the decrease in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was about 310 thousand barrels per day, to reach an average of 28.8 million barrels per day, marking its lowest level in almost a year, according to a survey conducted by "Bloomberg".

 

 

Last month, OPEC and its allies announced new production cuts, starting this month, with the aim of supporting global oil markets. However, the major changes in supplies that occurred in April were not intended, and Iraq contributed about 80% of this decline.

 

The dispute between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region led to the suspension of the pipeline, which usually transports 500,000 barrels per day to international markets via Turkey.

 

In Nigeria, the recovery in oil production during the last presidential election period has faded, after a labor movement in the sector forced ExxonMobil to drop shipments from several terminals over the past month.

 

However, the decline in supplies from OPEC and its allies - whether planned or accidental - did not greatly support the oil market, which is facing concerns about economic growth in China and the world at large.

 

Oil futures fell below $72 a barrel for US crude and $75 for Brent crude, marking their lowest levels since last March.

 

It is expected that the production of the entire “OPEC +” alliance, which includes 23 countries, will decrease by an additional 1.2 million barrels per day during the current month, with the entry into force of the new cuts.

 

Russia, another member of the "OPEC +" alliance, also announced production cuts, in response to the sanctions resulting from its invasion of Ukraine, but the extent to which it implemented this step or not is still not clear yet.

 

It is noteworthy that a meeting of the "OPEC +" coalition is scheduled to be held on the fourth of next June, with the aim of reviewing production levels for the second half of the year.