Is the Trump Bump now the Trump Dump?

[bostonangler]

Wall Street's post-election honeymoon with The Donald could well be ending — and with it, the historic three-month uptrend that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average from a pre-election swoon below 17,900 to within a point of 20,000.

Trump’s press conference on Wednesday didn’t help, but the market’s turn is about more than just that.  Valuations are stretched. Investors are over their toes, so to speak, with an aggressive bullish position. And sentiment has rarely been higher. Any disappointment could unleash a torrent of pent up selling pressure and cast a pall on Trump's first weeks in office.

On the surface, the situation seems tranquil. The Nasdaq has climbed for seven straight days through Wednesday, reaching a new high. But the S&P 500, the Dow and the Russell 2000 have been trapped in an extremely tight range for the past month. Earnings expectations for the Q4 season are high. Expectations for Trump's fiscal plans are extremely high.

On the other hand, equity market breadth continues to deteriorate and evidence of buying activity in safe haven assets — Treasury bonds and gold — is rising. Gold futures are challenging the $1,200-an-ounce level and crossed up and over their 50-day moving average for the first time since the first week of November. Treasury bonds are enjoying the first sustained uptrend since the summertime rally that peaked in July.

Monday marked only the third time in recent history that the Nasdaq Composite closed at a new high despite more issues declining than advancing. The other two times were July 1998 and February 2012. Both times, stocks declined almost immediately.

In 1998, the index went on to lose a quarter of its value in the months that followed as Federal Reserve interest rate hikes destabilized foreign currency and bond markets. There are some similarities to what's happening now as the surge in the U.S. dollar and U.S. interest rates since the presidential election has unnerved markets from China to Mexico.

In 2012, the index recovered from a short-lived pullback to hit new highs before losing 12 percent over the next couple of months.

On Wednesday, the Nasdaq hit a new high despite the fact that only 45 stocks on the Nasdaq exchange recorded a 52-week high. That's fewer than 1.7 percent of all issues. And that's the worst-ever reading on a day the index reached a new multi-year high. Something is clearly amiss.

 

<img alt="^DJI Chart" class="Maw(100%)" src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/JHVbUwk8qxfvjCnelOy_3g--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAwO2lsPXBsYW5l/http://globalfinance.zenfs.com/en_us/Finance/US_AHTTP_H_FISCAL_TIMES_LIVE/8d2c4d8846aba540f2271386f9b8a314.png.cf.jpg"/>

 

^DJI Chart

More

 

Smart money traders are increasingly getting cold feet. The "Smart Money Confidence" index maintained by SentimenTrader has dropped below 20 percent for the first time since last summer, one of the few times in the last 17 years confidence in this group has fallen this low. In the past, almost every prior instance resulted in stocks moving lower with "substantial downside," according to Jason Goepfert. 

[Shabibilicious]

Fluctuating around 19,000 is certainly better than around 8,000.  I hope it continues, time will tell.  

GO RV, then BV

[bostonangler]

Yes we all hope it does. I have however moved some of my stocks to safe heavens. Better to book profits than regrets. JMHO

B/A

[Indraman]

George Soros Lost Nearly $1B in Weeks After Trump Election.

George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager and liberal financier, lost nearly $1 billion after becoming bearish after Donald Trump’s election victory, The Wall Street Journal reported.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/13/george-soros-lost-nearly-1b-in-weeks-after-trump-election.html
 

I love it when the Left is sooooooo wrong; wrong about Clinton...wrong about the American people...wrong about the strength of our economy.

Indy

[Indraman]

Just now, Indraman said:

George Soros Lost Nearly $1B in Weeks After Trump Election.

George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager and liberal financier, lost nearly $1 billion after becoming bearish after Donald Trump’s election victory, The Wall Street Journal reported.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/13/george-soros-lost-nearly-1b-in-weeks-after-trump-election.html
 

I love it when the Left is sooooooo wrong; wrong about Clinton...wrong about the American people...wrong about the strength of our economy.

Indy

BTW, this will be less money for Soros to fund the radical, Fascist civil unrest projects with the Democrat Party...

Indy

[bostonangler]

Bank of America just beat estimates. At least the banks are making money. They predict a better 2017 due to interest earnings. When will banks start paying interest to their account holders? Damn Banksters!

B/A

[Shabibilicious]

11 minutes ago, Indraman said:

George Soros Lost Nearly $1B in Weeks After Trump Election.

George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager and liberal financier, lost nearly $1 billion after becoming bearish after Donald Trump’s election victory, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Damn....that's a lot of cheddar.  Think of all the things that could have been built with that kind of money, like a......Wall, or an Iron Curtain.  

GO RV, then BV

[RV ME]

1 hour ago, bostonangler said:

 

BA, since the link you provided is only for the chart, your words or plagiarized?

You have posted many times previously that we are headed for a market meltdown, and I agree with you.  Since the market has been artificially inflated for years since the bailouts and QE I II & III, when the correction comes will it be Trumps fault?  I ask because I have seen others blame Trump for the market dropping the day after the election but not crediting Trump for the large post election bump.  I have seen Obummer thanked for raising the market 10000 points, but never any reference to what Obummer actually did to warrant such credit.

I ask because we both believe we are headed for a correction and I would just like to know if you will remember what you said pre-Trump.

 

42 minutes ago, Shabibilicious said:

Damn....that's a lot of cheddar.  Think of all the things that could have been built with that kind of money, like a......Wall, or an Iron Curtain.  

GO RV, then BV

Or how many liberal politicians he could have bought, like Stuart Smalley.

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

47 minutes ago, Shabibilicious said:

Damn....that's a lot of cheddar.  Think of all the things that could have been built with that kind of money, like a......Wall, or an Iron Curtain.  

You mean like all the walls now going up in Europe to stem the tide of illegal 'immigrants' there...?

Well, gorged soros could do that, but he won't....  he's too scared to get that close to Russia...

Putin wants a piece of him...   a terminal piece.....

Can't get him soon enough for US...   and if he does, Thanks, Putin !

[Shabibilicious]

12 minutes ago, RV ME said:

BA, since the link you provided is only for the chart, your words or plagiarized?

 

You have posted many times previously that we are headed for a market meltdown, and I agree with you.  Since the market has been artificially inflated for years since the bailouts and QE I II & III, when the correction comes will it be Trumps fault?  I ask because I have seen others blame Trump for the market dropping the day after the election but not crediting Trump for the large post election bump.  I have seen Obummer thanked for raising the market 10000 points, but never any reference to what Obummer actually did to warrant such credit.

Sitting presidents own the spoils.....bad and good.  It's how it works.  Do not fret....for the American people, it will be the same with Trump.  

GO RV, then BV 

[RV ME]

12 minutes ago, Shabibilicious said:

Sitting presidents own the spoils.....bad and good.  It's how it works.  Do not fret....for the American people, it will be the same with Trump.  

GO RV, then BV 

Yes, that is what the sheeple think regardless that it is all

Just an illusion.

[bostonangler]

30 minutes ago, RV ME said:

BA, since the link you provided is only for the chart, your words or plagiarized?

 

You have posted many times previously that we are headed for a market meltdown, and I agree with you.  Since the market has been artificially inflated for years since the bailouts and QE I II & III, when the correction comes will it be Trumps fault?  I ask because I have seen others blame Trump for the market dropping the day after the election but not crediting Trump for the large post election bump.  I have seen Obummer thanked for raising the market 10000 points, but never any reference to what Obummer actually did to warrant such credit.

 

I ask because we both believe we are headed for a correction and I would just like to know if you will remember what you said pre-Trump..

 

My bad, I thought I did include a link...http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-trump-rally-may-turn-185600327.html

Obama was handed a **** storm from his predecessor. Printing money was the policy brought to him from his central bank masters. We all know that created a fake positive economy. This is why, I think a big correction is coming. Let's not forget the market is cyclical. There have been incredible gains and big money doesn't get rich by going with "buy and hold". They book profits. The market gains have been astronomical. Big money moves first and retail traders, are left holding the bag. This is why I've mentioned that I have made moves with my personal finances. I've booked my profits and will wait for the next buying opportunity. Making 20 or 30% over the last couple of years is good with me. If I hold hoping for another 10% could be a big mistake. I have learned the hard way that the market goes down much faster than up.

As for a coming correction being Trump's fault. At this point I have to say no. His fiscal policies won't come in to play for at least a year or two. I just hope he doesn't become a slave to the money masters as the presidents of our recent past have done. JMHO

 

B/A

[SgtFuryUSCZ]

33 minutes ago, RV ME said:

  I have seen Obummer thanked for raising the market 10000 points, but never any reference to what Obummer actually did to warrant such credit.

ho'bummer takes credit for alotta things he doesn't deserve.... Nobel Peace Prize...? 

he actually claims that is entire tenure was "Scandal-Free"....  IS HE SERIOUS...?!   OMG !

Far too numerous here to name !

Takes credit for shovel-ready jobs, lie, ho'bummer-lack-o'-care, lie, leaving US better off than when he took office...  LIE

IS HE INSANE...?!

Consensus is he probably is.... too bad so many ignorant people see him otherwise.... LOSERS. 

Merely attests to the massive indoctrination his pervasive evil has been able to get away with...

SAD.

 

 

[Shabibilicious]

1 minute ago, RV ME said:

Yes, that is what the sheeple think regardless that it is all

Just an illusion.

Correct.....it will be interesting to see how the new lambs on the block react.  

GO RV, then BV