Kap: Tariffs directly related to exchange rate?

[Deborah Layne]

This is a Kaperoni opinion from yesterday:

11-15-12 Kaperoni: Tariffs are directly related to the exchange rate as the WTO to the Tariffs. One goes with another. So if they hold this new target date, we should see the rate rise well before June. Now is good.

I'd like to add my two cents to this if I may. No offense to Guru Kaperoni, but I believe his thinking is a bit too black and white in this matter.

There is nothing from the GOI that I'm aware of that says "we won't apply the tariff laws until our poor blessed people have the money to pay them but we're not going to revalue the currency until we're ready to apply them", although I think it's safe to conclude they won't apply them until the people CAN pay. If there is something written to that effect, somebody please let me know so I can retract this.

Where Kaperoni's train of thought is too linear, IMO, is that the tariffs are "directly related to the exchange rate" All we're concerned with is the exchange rate, and I do not see the application of tariff laws as a clear indicator of 'when.'

I suspect that Kaperoni has never been involved in legislature, and I believe his comprehension of how/when/why the tariffs is based on too consecutive a thought process.

We've made simple, 'obvious,' 'logical' conclusions about every single one of these little details like the Erbil agreement, the strategic framework agreement, the ministers, and even who gets to pull the trigger and at what rate. I believe it's safe to conclude that what we think has no impact on what they do. Can we step back from this tariff thing a tad and accept the reality that there are things that we don't even know that we don't know? I haven't served in legislature, but I have buddies who have. And when/how to apply taxes is not normally a simple, streamlined process. We cannot look at the tariff law thinger in black and white. Well we can, but if we do, we're not going to draw the right conclusions.

Kaperoni spends more time than anyone I know pouring over articles and dissecting them with his own logic. While I appreciate the amount of time and energy he puts into this, and would call anyone who called him a 'pumper' a liar, I would hesitate to join his new hope that we can expect to see this sometime by June, 2013. Certainly we can expect to see this by June 2013. But not based on the fact that they're still dickering over the tariffs. I recall that he was equally as confident that we would see it by July 1st (correct me if I'm off on the date by a few days) because of one article in which Shabibi was quoted as saying that he was going to stop the auctions by then. Clearly, any expectation of RV based on one little item of interest is futile.

IMO, there is no logical reason based on experience to conclude that the exchange rate and the tariffs are 'directly connected.' Not when we're looking at the application of tariffs to tell us when they're going to increase the exchange rate.

Anyway, that's my $0.02 Y'all have a most excellent day

Edited November 16, 2012 by Deborah Layne

[Deborah Layne]

BTW - I only posted this because of some discouragement that was shared with me because of Kaperoni's take on the Tariff laws. I can't stand it when a guru's opinion affects people that way, and I just wanted to offer a different POV.

[rico1]

BTW - I only posted this because of some discouragement that was shared with me because of Kaperoni's take on the Tariff laws. I can't stand it when a guru's opinion affects people that way, and I just wanted to offer a different POV.

Thank you I enjoy your posts.

I have and do go to the D####G### site and read what has been posted, but I have also learned that there is more BS there than substance. I have also found out there are a few that are honest in there thought but sadly it doesn't seem to be the majority.

LOVE THE HAT

Edited November 16, 2012 by rico1

[Deborah Layne]

Yeah, they do seem to be in the minority.

Have you also noticed that not a one of them includes himself when talking about 'the gurus?' Not a one that I've ever heard.

"I"M not a guru, not like those other guys.. I just have my own forum wherein I pass down my important, conclusive opinions on news articles and share information from my top-secret 'intel sources'." Some guy was on CC earlier expounding on his love for Kaperoni because "he's not a guru" Great, if you like the guy. But 'not a guru?' What planet are you on? LOL

Okay, off my soapbox

[SPOTLIGHT]

Well Kap always brings good info he cant spikl the beans about everythng on the other hand he is correct ,How can you implement tariffs on the people with a worthless currency I think the only way and logical way is add value to the dinar,for example say they were to do so how the citizens pay taxes with a worthless currency,im goin with Kap this one the tariffs n exchange rate go hand n hand

[rico1]

The reason that I come to this site is because the people are honest. I might not agree with someones opinions but they are telling it as they see it and don't have a hidden agenda.

There is great discourse here on many subjects with many points of view and I take it all in and enjoy the witty banter.

[whatsthis]

This is a Kaperoni opinion from yesterday:

11-15-12 Kaperoni: Tariffs are directly related to the exchange rate as the WTO to the Tariffs. One goes with another. So if they hold this new target date, we should see the rate rise well before June. Now is good.

I'd like to add my two cents to this if I may. No offense to Guru Kaperoni, but I believe his thinking is a bit too black and white in this matter.

There is nothing from the GOI that I'm aware of that says "we won't apply the tariff laws until our poor blessed people have the money to pay them but we're not going to revalue the currency until we're ready to apply them", although I think it's safe to conclude they won't apply them until the people CAN pay. If there is something written to that effect, somebody please let me know so I can retract this.

Where Kaperoni's train of thought is too linear, IMO, is that the tariffs are "directly related to the exchange rate" All we're concerned with is the exchange rate, and I do not see the application of tariff laws as a clear indicator of 'when.'

I suspect that Kaperoni has never been involved in legislature, and I believe his comprehension of how/when/why the tariffs is based on too consecutive a thought process.

We've made simple, 'obvious,' 'logical' conclusions about every single one of these little details like the Erbil agreement, the strategic framework agreement, the ministers, and even who gets to pull the trigger and at what rate. I believe it's safe to conclude that what we think has no impact on what they do. Can we step back from this tariff thing a tad and accept the reality that there are things that we don't even know that we don't know? I haven't served in legislature, but I have buddies who have. And when/how to apply taxes is not normally a simple, streamlined process. We cannot look at the tariff law thinger in black and white. Well we can, but if we do, we're not going to draw the right conclusions.

Kaperoni spends more time than anyone I know pouring over articles and dissecting them with his own logic. While I appreciate the amount of time and energy he puts into this, and would call anyone who called him a 'pumper' a liar, I would hesitate to join his new hope that we can expect to see this sometime by June, 2013. Certainly we can expect to see this by June 2013. But not based on the fact that they're still dickering over the tariffs. I recall that he was equally as confident that we would see it by July 1st (correct me if I'm off on the date by a few days) because of one article in which Shabibi was quoted as saying that he was going to stop the auctions by then. Clearly, any expectation of RV based on one little item of interest is futile.

IMO, there is no logical reason based on experience to conclude that the exchange rate and the tariffs are 'directly connected.' Not when we're looking at the application of tariffs to tell us when they're going to increase the exchange rate.

Anyway, that's my $0.02 Y'all have a most excellent day

I think you need to read all of what Kap has posted not just one line & make a comment on that I'll bet further down from what you have posted it said this was his opinion & he also shows how he came up with it. One thing I have learned about Kap is he does not pump to make you buy dinar like Okie & TerryK & anyone in their group. Kap only shares News articles & give his opinion of what he sees in them. Unlike others who push for you to pay for their opinion & push you to buy more dinars by saying it will come out at $10.00 or higher. I have heard Kap say free float & starting at a low rate, So where does he say go buy more, He doesn't if anyone asks him his opinion on buying more dinars he say you should look at what you have & cane you afford to loose it if this fails to do anything. Now that is not a guru in my opinion. A guru in my opinion tells you to keep buy dinars. I also have heard Kap say Iraq is one of the biggest dinar pumpers around by saying every year when they work on the budget that their could be a possible raise in value.

[Deborah Layne]

I think you need to read all of what Kap has posted not just one line & make a comment on that I'll bet further down from what you have posted it said this was his opinion & he also shows how he came up with it. One thing I have learned about Kap is he does not pump to make you buy dinar like Okie & TerryK & anyone in their group. Kap only shares News articles & give his opinion of what he sees in them. Unlike others who push for you to pay for their opinion & push you to buy more dinars by saying it will come out at $10.00 or higher. I have heard Kap say free float & starting at a low rate, So where does he say go buy more, He doesn't if anyone asks him his opinion on buying more dinars he say you should look at what you have & cane you afford to loose it if this fails to do anything. Now that is not a guru in my opinion. A guru in my opinion tells you to keep buy dinars. I also have heard Kap say Iraq is one of the biggest dinar pumpers around by saying every year when they work on the budget that their could be a possible raise in value.

Nobody could accuse Kaperoni of pushing sales with a straight face. Your concept of a dinar guru is somebody like Okie. My concept of a 'dinar guru' is someone who gives opinions from a platform of presumed authority on the matter. Coupled with the top-secret, mine-is-better-than-yours "intel" from which a guru conveys predictions, opinions and speculations, that makes Kaperoni a guru. I am not at all ignorant of Kap's opinions or how he comes to them.

Each of us has the ability to form an opinion. Mine is, on this matter of tariffs and the exchange rate, that they are not directly connected - as in 'it won't RV until they are about to implement the tariffs.' Having heard great discouragement about the timing of the RV because Kaperoni's opinions were held as infallible, I took a leap and shared my perspective. It doesn't mean that I don't know Kaperoni's opinions.

So, what is your personal opinion about the tariffs as relates to the RV?

[i_musician77]

Nobody could accuse Kaperoni of pushing sales with a straight face. Your concept of a dinar guru is somebody like Okie. My concept of a 'dinar guru' is someone who gives opinions from a platform of presumed authority on the matter. Coupled with the top-secret, mine-is-better-than-yours "intel" from which a guru conveys predictions, opinions and speculations, that makes Kaperoni a guru. I am not at all ignorant of Kap's opinions or how he comes to them.

Each of us has the ability to form an opinion. Mine is, on this matter of tariffs and the exchange rate, that they are not directly connected - as in 'it won't RV until they are about to implement the tariffs.' Having heard great discouragement about the timing of the RV because Kaperoni's opinions were held as infallible, I took a leap and shared my perspective. It doesn't mean that I don't know Kaperoni's opinions.

So, what is your personal opinion about the tariffs as relates to the RV?

Deb...i'll have to back Kap on this one. I have said for some time that the keys to a successful RV would be Tariff laws and De-dollarization in Iraq. You have to understand the purpose of tariffs to know the releveance. They are not solely intended to be money making channels for the Government. They are designed to keep international trade competitive and fair. Without a currency with value, Tariffs would be of little impact to Iraq. Any large investor looking to invest in Iraq for manufacturing will be looking for the Dinar to have competitive value....

I generally take any speculative information with a grain of salt, but Kap IS correct on this one.

[Deborah Layne]

Deb...i'll have to back Kap on this one. I have said for some time that the keys to a successful RV would be Tariff laws and De-dollarization in Iraq. You have to understand the purpose of tariffs to know the releveance. They are not solely intended to be money making channels for the Government. They are designed to keep international trade competitive and fair. Without a currency with value, Tariffs would be of little impact to Iraq. Any large investor looking to invest in Iraq for manufacturing will be looking for the Dinar to have competitive value....

I generally take any speculative information with a grain of salt, but Kap IS correct on this one.

I think I understand the importance of the tariffs, and of course they won't apply them until there's a currency to trade. Obviously. But I just don't go along with the presumption that they won't RV until the tariffs are determined and settled and ready to go. That would put us into June, maybe. There have been way too many "it's got to happen by (insert date/event/etc)" There have been plenty that Kap has presumed to be 'the one' they'll finally go by - to no avail, obviously.

I'm not blowing off the tariffs - not by a long shot. I'm only responding to a wave of hopelessness that was expressed to me based on what's perceived as Guru Kaperoni kicking the can to June 2013. That's all I don't think it's that simple a thing - no RV until they're ready to apply the tariffs. Just trying to remove some of the discouragement that his post had brought to some friends of mine.

Edited November 16, 2012 by Deborah Layne

[keepmwlknfny]

Deb...i'll have to back Kap on this one. I have said for some time that the keys to a successful RV would be Tariff laws and De-dollarization in Iraq. You have to understand the purpose of tariffs to know the releveance. They are not solely intended to be money making channels for the Government. They are designed to keep international trade competitive and fair. Without a currency with value, Tariffs would be of little impact to Iraq. Any large investor looking to invest in Iraq for manufacturing will be looking for the Dinar to have competitive value....

I generally take any speculative information with a grain of salt, but Kap IS correct on this one.

Tariff laws are not related to a RV....and what I mean by that is that you cant say that they have to RV before they implement taxes on goods lol....

No matter what the value of your currency is, goods still have a certain value and any tax on those goods coming in is money in the pocket. In Iraqs case, the best thing about the Tariff taxes is that it will promote local production of goods because they will be cheaper and it will create a demand for

more local services/goods to be produced which will create more jobs.

They actually already have some tariff laws in place....a 5% tax across the board on many items. So why would raising the tax have to wait for a RV of massive proportions??

http://www.trade.gov/iraq/build/groups/public/@tg_iqtf/documents/webcontent/tg_iqtf_003873.pdf

[mr john]

Tariff laws are not related to a RV....and what I mean by that is that you cant say that they have to RV before they implement taxes on goods lol....

No matter what the value of your currency is, goods still have a certain value and any tax on those goods coming in is money in the pocket. In Iraqs case, the best thing about the Tariff taxes is that it will promote local production of goods because they will be cheaper and it will create a demand for

more local services/goods to be produced which will create more jobs.

They actually already have some tariff laws in place....a 5% tax across the board on many items. So why would raising the tax have to wait for a RV of massive proportions??

http://www.trade.gov/iraq/build/groups/public/@tg_iqtf/documents/webcontent/tg_iqtf_003873.pdf

Thanks keepm. You saved me the time of typing.

[MovieMaker]

Thanks for sharing.

[RVPleaseToday]

"Any large investor looking to invest in Iraq for manufacturing will be looking for the Dinar to have competitive value...."

Any investor looking to invest in Iraq does NOT want an RV! If I was going to spend a $1 Billion USD and build a factory in Iraq, I would want the Dinar to remain at the lowest possible value so my billion USD would go farther. I would want wages over there to stay low so I could get maximum return on my labor dollars. I certainly wouldn't wait to invest until AFTER an RV, which would increase the cost to me in USD to build my factory. And if I believed the Dinar was about to RV any minute, I would rush in to build my factory before that RV happened.

Edited November 17, 2012 by RVPleaseToday

[Luigi1]

No disrespect intended & not disagreeing completely...

I believe there is a direct connection between tariifs & the exchange rates.

Inflation is at the breaking point in Iraq as it is over here. Add another 30 to 40 persent to the cost of everything imported will be devistating to the average man on the streets not to mention the affects that will ripple through the entire economy.

Value must be added to the purchasing power of the ordinary consumer or this could all backfire. Putting the cart before the horse is only asking for trouble.

Just my point of view.

[i_musician77]

"Any large investor looking to invest in Iraq for manufacturing will be looking for the Dinar to have competitive value...."

Any investor looking to invest in Iraq does NOT want an RV! If I was going to spend a $1 Billion USD and build a factory in Iraq, I would want the Dinar to remain at the lowest possible value so my billion USD would go farther. I would want wages over there to stay low so I could get maximum return on my labor dollars. I certainly wouldn't wait to invest until AFTER an RV, which would increase the cost to me in USD to build my factory. And if I believed the Dinar was about to RV any minute, I would rush in to build my factory before that RV happened.

Look at international trade laws, and requirements of the WTO. I assure you, the value must be globally competitive for any true investment to come into Iraq outside of the energy sector. The 5 % across the board tariffs in place now actually cost Iraq considerably more because of the balance of outside trade (exports) vs. imports. It is not cost effective or competitive. Post RV would cost no more to do business in Iraq....that's a misconception. The adjustments are currently made at Global market value against the world reserve currency...the good old Dollar.

[Highlander]

Great thread everyone! Since we are all throwing our 2 cents out there here is mine. Tariffs are about creating a trade balance inside a country. Iraq currently has a 5% tariff on items coming into Iraq that is suppose to go into a reconstruction for Iraq fund so it is not like they don't have any tariffs in place at all. I believe that when they apply additional tariffs it will have more to do with the WTO ascension than anything else as they have to achieve trade balance under the agreements which parliament is currently working on ratifying and has been for the last year and a half. The U.S. Bilateral just had a first reading in parliament before they went on their break. China is done along with the EU and many individual bilaterals with the EU nations. If they manage to complete the wto process, which won't happen until they are out of chapter 7 with the UN and they are article 8 compliant with the IMF, I believe you will see the tariffs implemented. So the real question comes back to whether you believe Iraq has to RV to accomplish those items? My opinion is no they don't. There are several countries with exchange rates at Iraq's level or lower that have all those items under their belts and conduct international trade just fine. South Korea is a fine example of one such country. I have to agree with Deborah on this one.

[SPOTLIGHT]

Mods I thot we play fairat dinarvets

[Polishfloridian]

I agree with Deborah because of the beautiful hat she is wearing............... but i also believe Highlander because of the post. Oh, a moral dilemma!! ................................ I choose................................................... I choose............................................. I choose ................................................. I choose................................... I choose the hat AND the post.... + for each one!!!

thanks,

Art

[SPOTLIGHT]

Tariff laws are not related to a RV....and what I mean by that is that you cant say that they have to RV before they implement taxes on goods lol....

No matter what the value of your currency is, goods still have a certain value and any tax on those goods coming in is money in the pocket. In Iraqs case, the best thing about the Tariff taxes is that it will promote local production of goods because they will be cheaper and it will create a demand for

more local services/goods to be produced which will create more jobs.

They actually already have some tariff laws in place....a 5% tax across the board on many items. So why would raising the tax have to wait for a RV of massive proportions??

http://www.trade.gov/iraq/build/groups/public/@tg_iqtf/documents/webcontent/tg_iqtf_003873.pdf

How sure are you about this?