Someone's Opinion

[k98nights]

People are wondering why it didn

[HERC]

Sounds like a very reasonable opinion and good advise!!!

Thanks

[madd44]

As always to the point and realistic logic not just hype...thanks for all the work and thought you put into keeping us informed..

[longpalms]

Your argument makes good common sense-Thanks

[hablrob]

well. this works for me. "someone", i can't blame you for wishing to be anonymous.

thanks for the post.

[Circlewood]

thank you for the 'logical well put thoughts'.

[k98nights]

Just in case anyone thinks I'm taking credit for this opinion... I did not write this. I merely brought it here for all to read. Thanks!

[jjl]

i agree on the float

[Chief V]

Well hopefully it'll be the dollar, as the Euro had a dramatic drop today:

Live rates at 2010.03.02 15:52:03 UTC

1.00 USD = 0.737330 EUR

United States Dollars Euro

1 USD = 0.737330 EUR 1 EUR = 1.35625 USD

Best Rates Guaranteed. Click here!!

But I'll settle for a good solid .74!!!

[Dinosaur]

"Shabibi must enact a plan NLT April 1, 2010 per UN and IMF requirements."

Why must he enact a plan? What would happen if he doesn't enact a plan?

[Pam&Brian]

Now that's a post I can relate to! Thanks Woody, very interesting and logical reasoning - I like it!

Pam

[bstephie123]

Thanks for the post Woody. I have a couple of questions: 1) Where did you find, and can you share the source of the information regarding Shabibi must enact a plan NLT April 1 per UN and IMF requirements? 2) What does it mean to "float" as stated in your post? "...probably over $1 and float"

thank you - bstephie123

[wings13]

Is April Fool's Day an international holiday?

[UMPgolfClub]

Iraq looks to local and foreign investment to build its economy

Trading floors are known for being volatile. Those who think they're tough should try navigating the Iraq Stock Exchange.

On Jan. 12, the Tuesday trading session was cancelled. Intelligence reports pointed to a planned suicide attack somewhere in the capital. As a precaution, authorities ordered a strict curfew on Baghdad.

"The stock exchange has called off its session on Tuesday because of the inability of its employees to reach their workplace," a source told the Aswat al-Iraq news agency in a bit of an understatement.

And New York City investors thought midtown traffic was inconvenient.

This isn't the first time Shwan Taha, CEO of Rabee Securities, one of Baghdad's oldest and largest brokerage firms, has seen trading suspended. Of course, it's nothing compared to 2006 when it lasted for months during what the United Nations called a "civil warlike situation."

Today, Taha sees that relatively more security in the streets means the same for his investments.

"On the exchange, the largest sector is by far the banks," he explains while e-mailing stock reports over a problematic Internet connection. On this day, the Bank of Baghdad closed at 1.98 Iraqi Dinars -less than a penny US.

"Then there is the tourism sector," he says. "But, that's really more real estate when you get into it."

Taha knows the intricacies of this market. After all, he has traded shares in Baghdad since its first exchange opened in 1992. Back then it was the Baghdad Stock Exchange. Under the rule of Saddam Hussein, it provided a prosperous living.

"It operated well until the invasion at which point it was closed. Then squatters moved in for a year," says Taha. "The U.S. tried to reopen it. But, reopening was a fanciful thing. They couldn't manage it. They were incompetent."

Without a formal system of trading, brokerages set about creating their own private exchange. In June 2004, the Iraq Stock Exchange opened with 15 listings. Today it has about 90 companies and recently moved to electronic trading.

"It's the same system that the NASDAQ uses," says Taha. Although, he acknowledges it can't rely on the country's battered power grid that leaves Baghdad in the dark unexpectedly and for long periods of time. "You have to factor in that the computer system and servers can't go off. So, the exchange runs on generators. Trading only happens for two hours a day."

As a backup, the old system remains in place -white-boards and dry-erase markers. Throughout the exchange building, a former restaurant in the heart of Baghdad, hanging boards represent each company listed. Traders, mobile phones pressed to their ears, crowd these boards, writing and erasing notes to buy and sell.

It's a definite skill that requires a fast hand and a shrewd eye. Now though, investors can verify their trades on the spot rather than waiting two weeks for certificates. That's something Taha hopes will bring in new investors.

"We definitely cater towards foreign investment. We've seen an uptick, especially frontier funds," he says. "But, the global custodians of the economy have not been to Iraq yet."

Iraq is still tiny compared to established markets in London and New York. By the end of 2008, the ISX had traded only $270 million compared to the NYSE's $16.7 trillion. But, in spite of the non-market volatility, many hope local and foreign investment will boost the nation's economy.

On the last day of January, despite the delay earlier in the month, the index was up 1.16 per cent. As Taha predicted, the banks dominated the trading. But, Tourist Village of Mosul (HTVM) represented one of the biggest gains, up 10 per cent on the day.

For people like Taha, this only proves there's money to be made at the ISX. Of course, the investment may be a little more high-risk than usual.

Craig and Marc Kielburger co-founded Free the Children. The goal of the organization is to free children from poverty and exploitation through education.

[CaptainConrad]

It was OK until he said "probably" the end of March. These guesses of RV dates really are not necessary nor do they provide any purpose to the DINAR holder.

[Andy]

This does sound reasonable. Lets see.

[quadraph0nic]

K98 you are the man!! Thank you for sharing that!

[bluejay]

Thanks my head doesn't hurt as much right now..

[bahtman]

Thanks for a good post.

I would only add: that I would not be too quick to throw out the .86 exchange rate. It's the one they have already given us, when they said that on redenomination the 25k note will equal the new 25 dinar note. Once the 25k notes have been removed and even before, in order for the 25 dinar note to still maintain the buying power of the old 25k note the new exchange rate has to be .86 . Everyone seems to want to ignore this rate for some reason. It is not only easier for the Iraqis and merchants to understand and make a smooth transition if the change is just a matter of moving a decimal point, it is a 1000 to 1 folks. I'm not going to ignore that

[whisky runner]

so maybe by june 4 when the year is over for the dfi fund and we see it transfered back to the cbi and iraq ... we might see the revalue ... good

[createmyparadise]

Well hopefully it'll be the dollar, as the Euro had a dramatic drop today:

Live rates at 2010.03.02 15:52:03 UTC

1.00 USD = 0.737330 EUR

United States Dollars Euro

1 USD = 0.737330 EUR 1 EUR = 1.35625 USD

Best Rates Guaranteed. Click here!!

But I'll settle for a good solid .74!!!

I think you have it backwards- the Euro is worth more right now... just not as much as it used to.

[Mojo]

Thanks for the post Woody. I have a couple of questions: 1) Where did you find, and can you share the source of the information regarding Shabibi must enact a plan NLT April 1 per UN and IMF requirements? 2) What does it mean to "float" as stated in your post? "...probably over $1 and float"

thank you - bstephie123

It was on DDs site

[Nate]

HE goes by the name EddieX, go to http://www.currencytradechat.com/forum/ to see his comments and opinions. He says he has two sources on the ground in Iraq and he sounds like he researches before he speaks.